Wednesday, March 02, 2022

03/02 Links Pt1: Russia’s Next Target for Intimidation Could Be Israel; Kasparov urges US to leave Iran talks to protest Putin; Ukraine and “The End of History“

From Ian:

Russia’s Next Target for Intimidation Could Be Israel
Now, Russia needs Iran and its markets more than ever before. For Moscow it might be the right time to expand the partnership, as the Iranians have been demanding. Yet if Iran signs the nuclear deal, brokered in large part by Russia, the roles of Russia and Iran may be reversed, with Iran—if sanctions are lifted—having a stronger and even determining hand in that relationship.

There is a loud anti-Russian camp in Iran that remembers well how Moscow ignored Iranian demands for a long time. Yet there is also no doubt that Tehran will be happy to receive the latest Russian weapons. It now seems likely that Iran will get the weapons systems it demanded a long time ago even if for some reason the nuclear deal is not finalized. Russia has nothing more to lose and it will have to seize every opportunity to continue to sell its weapons to anyone who demands them.

What’s on the Iranian shopping list? According to the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, Iran is interested in SU-30 fighters, Yak-130 trainers, T-90 tanks and—the cherry on top—S-400 surface-to-air missile defense systems that Russia previously refrained from selling. Even if Russia fulfills only part of the Iranian shopping list, it will be very bad news for Israel. Until recently, advanced Russian missile systems inside Syria were under full Russian control. That might change as well.

The greatest threat that Russia poses to Israel may be in the expansion of its regional influence, especially in the absence of an effective U.S.-led security structure. With the exception of Lebanon and Kuwait, which denounced Russia, and Syria, a full Russian client that denounced the West, the Arab states are currently sitting on the fence, unwilling to put their neck on the line for either the United States or the Russians. During the last few years some of these countries, particularly the Gulf states, didn’t hide their frustration with American Middle East policy, which aimed under both the Obama and Trump administrations at diminishing the American presence in the region—and which under Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden put a U.S. nuclear deal with Iran at the top of American regional priorities. In response, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt all began purchasing Russian (and Chinese) weapons, and putting their relations with Moscow on display.

Russia has significantly expanded its web of relations in the Middle East, mostly due to the fear of some countries that they might be abandoned by the West. If the United States wants these countries to join an alliance against Moscow, it might have to rethink its regional policy—or else rethink its relations with Arab countries who might wish to continue with their current balancing act. Yet Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia heavily depend on wheat supplies from Russia and Ukraine. Rising prices on basic food staples and energy might disrupt stability in many countries in the region, creating more risks and insecurity. All of these developments might in turn have a negative influence on Israel and its attempt to build new alliances in the region—especially if Russia sees Israel as an American instrument, while the Americans see Iran as a partner.

There is little doubt that fateful events in Ukraine have turned over the chess board in the Middle East, as elsewhere. While risks for Israel are bound to increase, it will need—now more than ever—firm American support and a confident U.S. policy in the Middle East. A new American deal with Iran, which remains America’s regional priority even during the war in Ukraine, seems unlikely to provide those assurances.
Ukraine-Russia war: Kasparov urges US to leave Iran talks to protest Putin
Garry Kasparov, the former world chess champion and expert on Russian President Vladimir Putin, on Tuesday urged the US and other world powers to walk away from the Iran nuclear talks in Vienna to protest Russia’s war against Ukraine.

As part of a new Twitter thread on how to isolate Putin and dissolve his regime in Moscow, Kasparov wrote “Defend Ukraine, which is paying a price in blood for the complacency and corruption of the free world that is watching them die. Boycott Russian oil and leave every table with Russia, from Iran deals to green deals. Cut Putin off so there is no way back with him.”

The Jerusalem Post reported last week on Kasparov’s plan to defeat Putin. He recommended that the international community “support Ukraine militarily; bankrupt Putin's war machine; freeze and seize Russia's finances; and kick Russia out of every financial institution.”

To the astonishment of many critics of Putin and Iran’s regime, the US government announced that it will continue to negotiate alongside Russia in Vienna to curb Tehran’s drive to become a nuclear power in exchange for economic sanctions relief.

Russian and the Islamic Republic of Iran are allied with the regime in Syria where President Bashar Assad's war against a revolt has caused the deaths of over 500,000 people.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi greenlighted Putin's invasion of Ukraine. The removal of sanctions on Iran's regime is a goal of Putin because it permits him to sell weapons to the theological regime in Tehran.

Kasparov is a ubiquitous presence in the media because, among other reasons, he was able to jump into the future in 2015 and predict Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and the Russian strongman’s imperial aims. The chess grandmaster’s Twitter feed has been one of the go-to micro-blogs for instant analysis on Putin’s war in Ukraine, with each new Kasparov tweet going viral.
Ukraine and “The End of History“
For most Americans willing to be honest with themselves, the “end of history” liberal narrative is no less a problem on the local and national level and not just an international threat. The idea of others adopting a liberal outlook and liberal understanding of how society should function has not only backfired but instead has created a grim reality facing most Americans as they go about their daily routines only praying to reach their home safely by the end of the day.

The Democratic Party by empowering this false prophecy has infected all sectors of life in American society; energy (voluntarily shutting down energy production and self-sufficiency), police enforcement (defunding the police), economic disincentives (raising private and corporate taxes to the ceiling), violent street crime and bail reform (dismissing concerns about rising violent crime as “hysteria”), military recruitment (banning US military recruiting via Twitch), and ignoring the deterioration of the quality of life in most urban cities throughout the United States.

For most American’s, the “end of history” liberal agenda has simply made lives more susceptible, and more vulnerable. The “end of history” narrative will not be like the civilization shifting period of the French revolution nor that of the Industrial Revolution but more likely a re-run of “Ground Hog Day” with every day bringing more of the dismal dis-functioning of the Democratic Party just like the day before.

As the tides of history hit the shores of reality, and “the end of history” becomes just another bestseller from an earlier generation, what can we expect in the near future?

-The invasion of the Ukraine will become just another historical blip largely forgotten until the next invasion by a totalitarian state emulating Russia and her leader Vladimir Putin.

-The Democratic Party and their progressive cohorts will continue to promote false prophecies of the supremacy of liberal and progressive thought that most likely be coming to an end during the midterm elections this coming November.

-Americans will slowly but surely become tired and disgusted by the normalization of the declining quality of life as if it’s OK to live in fear, OK to live with daily shootings, OK to steal, and OK to make life miserable for others.

This is the legacy of Francis Fukuyama’s “the end of history”, this is the legacy of the Democratic Party and her liberal progressive agenda that has made the world and America that more dangerous for us all. The Democratic Party will move on as if it’s not her problem, not her responsibility, and will refuse to be held accountable.


If the West can stand up to Russia, it can stand up to Iran - analysis
Time is of the essence for another reason, as well. The Western countries and Russia may be able to engage in Iran talks while clashing over Ukraine for now, but it seems unlikely that will last for long.

With war raging in Ukraine and Iran apparently in no rush to reach a nuclear agreement as it advances its nuclear program, Israel’s allies in Vienna have to choose how to proceed.

Some of the issues arising from the war in Ukraine directly impact the Iran talks, whether it’s a live test of how effective sanctions can be when countries unite, or the fluctuating price of oil because of the cancellation of the Nordstream2 gas pipeline.

One possible approach may be to say that now is the time to compromise in order to quickly reach a deal – the deal that US President Joe Biden repeatedly promised he would revive.

But the E3 and US could come to the realization that now is not the time to strengthen a Russian ally who, like Russia, is hell-bent on destroying another UN member state – Israel. And the threats from Russian President Vladimir Putin could remind them that they don’t want another rogue state with nuclear weapons.

Now that the West is showing unity and strength against Russia, there is no reason for it to show weakness when negotiating with Iran.

As it has with Russia, the West can stand up for itself against Iran and say its actions are unacceptable. Unlike with Russia, it is not too late to avoid the deadly consequences of the Iran nuclear program before the West reaches that conclusion.
'This is a genocide': Rep. Victoria Spartz delivers emotional plea to Biden
Rep. Victoria Spartz, a Ukrainian American representing Indiana's 5th Congressional District, delivered an emotional plea to President Joe Biden, fellow members of Congress, and the public on Tuesday morning.

"This is not a war," she said. "This is a genocide of the Ukrainian people by a crazy man who cannot get over that Ukrainian people do not want socialism, [the] Soviet Union, [or] communism.”

"They are bombing civilians nonstop, day and night.”

"They are leveling the cities to the ground, destroying the people. They are slaughtering them like animals. They are killing the people. It is not a war. It’s a genocide because we have a crazy man that believes he has the whole world hostage," she added while on the verge of tears.

“I can tell you one thing: If we don’t stop him there, he is not going to stop. He is going to go further. And then we’ll have to send our children to die to fight this,” she warned.

“So I think we have an obligation and duty to save this world [and] help Ukrainian people to survive.”

She then slammed Biden's lack of action, saying, “What’s happening under his watch is [an] atrocity. What he do to this country and to the world is unforgivable.” She further warned that the blood of Ukrainians will be on Biden's hands as well if he doesn't act.
Seth Frantzman: Reflections from the Ukrainian front lines of 2017 and what's changed
I’ve been to Ukraine twice. The first time was in 2015 to the western Ukrainian city of Lviv.

Western Ukraine is home to many of the Eastern European county's most staunch nationalists who have supported an independent line vis-à-vis Moscow for decades.

When I went to Lviv – which is a pretty city that seems to be, and is geographically closer to Vienna than it is to Moscow – posters of Ukrainians killed in the war against Russian-backed separatists festooned some of the buildings.

The war that had broken out in 2014, when protesters pushed out the pro-Russian Ukrainian leader Viktor Yanukovich, had already been going on for a year.

To understand the Ukraine that any Russian army would have to cross and invade, it is worth looking back at what happened between 2015 and 2017. The nation that has been formed in the last several years has a strong sense of purpose. With the US warning of imminent invasion, it’s worth learning a bit about what the country is like.


‘Nazism is born in silence’ - Zelensky urges Jews to shout against Russia
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appealed to Jewish people around the world to speak out on behalf of his country, citing Jewish history sites struck by Russia in its assault on its neighbor.

“I am now addressing the Jews of the world: don’t you see what is happening?” Zelensky asked. “That is why it is very important that millions of Jews around the world do not remain silent now.”

“Nazism is born in silence,” he warned, “so shout about the killing of civilians, of Ukrainians.”

In Wednesday’s installment of the daily videos Zelensky has been posting online, the president warned that Russia is trying to erase the history of Ukraine, and of its Jews specifically, following the bombing of the Babyn Yar memorial at the site of the Nazis’ largest massacre of Jews.

He spoke in Ukrainian in the video, but the post on Facebook also appeared in Hebrew.

“The world promises ‘never again,’” Zelensky said. “Babyn Yar is a special part of Kyiv, a special part of Europe. A place of prayer, a place of remembrance for 100,000 people killed by the Nazis.”

“Who would make it a target for missiles? You are killing Holocaust victims for the second time,” he said.


Minister likens Ukraine refugees to Jews fleeing Holocaust, says Israel must open its doors
Diaspora Affairs Minister Nachman Shai calls on Israel to open its doors to Ukrainian refugees, comparing their plight to those of Jews trying to flee the Holocaust.

“Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees have already crossed into neighboring countries or have been stranded outside of their country and are unable to return. We remember today the Jewish refugees 80 years ago who crossed continents and seas but were rejected,” Shai says.

“The State of Israel, the state of the Jewish people, must open its gates to these refugees. This is our basic humanitarian obligation,” he says.

Shai’s comments come a day after Ukrainian Ambassador to Israel Yevgen Korniychuk criticized Jerusalem for failing to let in Ukrainian refugees.

Though it has not opened itself to mass migration, Israel is allowing Ukrainian citizens into the country and has agreed to halt deportations of those staying here without visas.


Civilians prep to protect homes, nuclear plant as Russian invasion continues
Thousands of Ukrainians worked on Wednesday to form a barricade to hold back Russian forces nearing Enerhodar, where Europe's largest nuclear power plant is located, according to the city's mayor.

Similar incidents of civilians blocking Russian forces and vehicles have been reported in multiple locations in recent days.

The Russians shelled Borodyanka, which is on the way to Kyiv, and Voznesensk in the south of Ukraine. Additional air raids were heard in cities all across Ukraine, according to EuroMaiden.

According to Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Valery Zaluzhny, the Ukrainian military took back the city of Makariv near Kyiv on Wednesday evening.

Anton Herashchenko, an advisor to the Ukrainian Internal Affairs Ministry, warned that the fighting near the nuclear power plant in Enerhodar could cause damage to equipment necessary for the safety of the plant. He added that this could cause an incident like the one at Chernobyl or at Fukushima.

"Radiation does not know nationalities," wrote Herashchenko on Facebook, calling on Russian forces to bypass the area.

Russians attacked a checkpoint in Korosten, and four people were killed in the attack, according to Pravda.

The Russian Defense Ministry had claimed in recent days to have captured the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station in Enerhodar, although an update on Wednesday from the IAEA stated only that Russian forces had taken control of the territory around the plant and that the power plant was still under the control of the Ukrainian national operator.

Over 2,000 Ukrainians had been killed in the invasion as of Wednesday, according to the State Emergency Service of Ukraine.


Russia-Ukraine war: Meet the Ukrainian refugees at the Polish border
A family with three young girls walks through the Poland-Ukraine border crossing. It is freezing cold, but the chilled wind does not ruin their relief. They are free at last. They carry no suitcases, just a few bags, and the girls are each hugging teddy bears.

The border crossing looks like a large, improvised refugee camp, with the smell of smoke wafting in the air from several groups lighting fires in an effort to warm up.

Buses and vehicles pass through the crossing. Some have reached the border alone with nothing but a suitcase, or even just a small bag. Many of the refugees say they had packed suitcases, but were forced to leave them in Ukraine following Russian assaults and explosions.

The Red Cross was forced to evacuate from the border a few kilometers into Poland. Whoever entered the gaping space was met by the Israeli organization Rescue Without Borders, which brought medical volunteers from Israel and set up a small tent that became an essential lifesaver.

“We have been here for two days, and are constantly treating refugees who come here destitute, many of whom suffer from hypothermia and dehydration,” says Rescue Without Borders chairman Aryeh Levy. “The organization brought 100 thermal blankets, which ran out too quickly.”

Suddenly a woman faints nearby, and rescue members rush over to treat her. Later I discover that she had a heart attack. Israeli volunteers saved her life, but the ambulance that was rushed to the scene is not allowed to leave. There is chaos everywhere, with almost no Polish policemen or soldiers supervising the compound.

Jasren, an Indian student who has been studying in Kyiv for the past year, crosses the border and is shivering from the cold.


MEMRI: Celebrated Russian Blogger 'El Murid' Assesses ' It Is Already Obvious That The Myth Of A Powerful Russian Army Has Been Dispelled'
Historians believe that Hitler's plan to attack Russia first crystallized following the Winter War of 1939-1940 between the Soviet Union and Finland. Although the overwhelming numerical and military superiority of the Red Army subdued the Finns after three months of fighting, its bumbling performance in the early stages of the fighting encouraged Hitler to believe that the Russians were no match for the Wehrmacht. [1] The respected Russian blogger and military expert Anatoly Nesmiyan, who writes under the pseudonym El-Murid, believes that whatever the outcome of the current fighting between Russia and Ukraine, it is clear that all the money that Putin diverted from economic development and poured into defense spending has failed to produce and efficient and intimidating war machine. Russia has managed to defeat irregular forces but its military deficiencies have been exposed forcing Vladimir Putin to invoke nuclear threats. Now that Russia's military weakness has been exposed it is but a matter of time till an adversary test's Russia in one of the many places where Russia is militarily involved.

Nesmiyan's comments follow below:
"The threat to use nuclear weapons in an essentially quite ordinary, local conflict signifies the Russian leadership's complete and ultimate bankruptcy in every sense.

"Putin, under the billboard 'enemies all around,' siphoned off astronomical sums from the country's development budget, and stuffed them into what was called a 'defense capability.' And as long as he was chasing partisans riding on 'tachankas' [A horse-drawn cart with a mounted machine gun in a possible reference to Syria], or robbing the resources of those incapable of retaliating against him, everything seemed to be going well. True, in Syria, questions [about the Russian army's combat readiness] had already arisen, but they were quickly muffled by the victory screams.

"The problem is that the [Russian] top leadership itself appears to have languished in full confidence that the drawn up and mostly simply purloined cartoons about the Russian army's unprecedented power was that in fact. And, based on this confidence the war was designed, which immediately put things in their rightful place.

"The enemy's heroism is, naturally, a factor. But it's not people who wage wars. The organized structures, resources, and technology wage wars. Heroism merely serves as an indicator that the winning ingredients are severely absent, and must be filled, like [Soviet hero Alexander] Matrosov with his body. A normal army works the way a mine operates, i.e. it meets the norms and fulfils a plan. Heroism is not required here, and in fact, isn't welcomed. Anyone who has worked in a production line knows that now one there likes heroic enthusiasts. True, when there is an all hands-on deck job to meet deadlines and everything is 'on fire', then yes, heroes are needed. But it is clear that such an all hands on deck job is an indicator of poor work organization.

"In fact, the Ukrainian now in an all hands on deck situation, which is logical as it is objectively weaker. Hence the heroism of [the Ukrainian soldiers]. But the problem is that the Russian army, for all its superiority, has failings in all of its components. That starts with planning, which, in turn, starts with the formulation of the political objectives.
Pro-Putin Chechen general who led 'gay purge' killed in Ukraine
Ukraine forces killed Chechen general Magomed Tushayev on Saturday at the Antonov International Airport (GML) northwest of Kyiv. Tushayev is responsible for the torture and murders of LGBTQ+ individuals in the largely Muslim region of Chechnya in Russia.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces confirmed his death, writing in a tweet that “Magomed Tushayev, leader of the 141 motorized regiment of the Chechen National Guard, was killed!.”

Illia Ponomarenko, a defense reporter for The Kyiv Independent, tweeted: “Magomed Tushayev, one of Ramzan Kadyrov’s top warlords, has been killed in action in Hostomel. Ukraine’s elite Alpha Group is reportedly fighting Chechens in the airfield.”

Peter Tatchell, a British LGBTQ+ activist and human rights campaigner, told The Jerusalem Post that “While I never rejoice at the killing of anyone, his death means one less mass murderer on the loose. Those who live by the sword should not be surprised if they die by the sword. This will mean that he is no longer able to abduct, torture and kill Chechen LGBTs and dissidents, which is is a good thing.”
European diplomat criticizes Israeli balancing act on Ukraine invasion
A European diplomat sounded an exasperated note over Israel’s cautious policy toward Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Tuesday, as Israel’s ambassador to the US insisted that Jerusalem “undeniably supports Ukraine.”

“Israel can’t decide not to be on the side of the European countries and the United States,” said the EU diplomat, who spoke over the phone with The Times of Israel on condition of anonymity.

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said earlier Tuesday that Israel was seeking to “help quietly” while maintaining its own strategic interests, referencing the need to maintain working relations with Russia, which controls the airspace over Syria where Israel operates to target Iranian proxies.

While Israel has expressed its support for the Ukrainian people and has sent a shipment of 100 tons of humanitarian aid, Bennett has avoided calling out Putin by name, refused a Ukrainian request for military equipment and his Foreign Minister Yair Lapid avoided condemning Russia by name for the bombing of the Babyn Yar memorial complex in Kyiv, site of the massacre of tens of thousands of Jews by Nazis during World War II.

Israel also refused a US request to co-sponsor a Security Council resolution last week condemning Russia, though Lapid announced that it would back a General Assembly resolution to the same effect later this week.

The European diplomat, who spoke to The Times of Israel on the eve of a visit by German Chancellor Olaf Sholz, said that European countries “are aware of Israel’s security interests.”


Palestinians say war in Ukraine will hurt their cause
Palestinian officials and the Palestinian public are warning that the war in Ukraine will hurt their cause and leave them searching for international attention.

The Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority has not taken a public position on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. PA President Mahmoud Abbas and most of the Palestinian leadership have elected to remain silent on the conflict.

Political analyst Nihad Abu Ghosh of Ramallah told The Media Line that Israel is "using wars to increase settlement building in the occupied West Bank by promoting immigration."

"Since the emergence of the Zionist movement, the Israelis have exploited wars to recruit hundreds of thousands of Jews and replace them for Palestinians," he said.

If the fighting between Russia and Ukraine continues, thousands of Ukrainian Jews are expected to flee the country and immigrate to Israel. Palestinians warn that Israel will send them to live in settlements in the West Bank.

Abu Ghosh says the Palestinians' greatest fear is the resettling of Ukrainian-Jewish immigrants in West Bank settlements.

"Certainly, this is a source of concern for the Palestinians. We noticed the same thing after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s," Abu Ghosh said.

He says the Palestinians’ situation is fragile, and because of that they can't afford to upset anyone. "When the Palestinian economy and Palestinian life depend on international support, this puts the Palestinians in a weaker position than before," he said.
Indy compares Ukrainian resistance to Palestinian terror
The Independent published a commentary which included the complaint that international support for Ukrainian resistance to the Russian invasion represents a racist double standard – insofar as such support is not shown for “black and brown people”, such as Palestinians, who engage in the same behavior.

The op-ed (“The racial bias in western media’s Ukraine coverage is shameful”, March 1), by the Indy’s Race Correspondent Nadine White, argues that Western media outlets’ sympathetic coverage of Ukraine’s struggle, including their “armed resistance”, is based on their “whiteness” and “proximity to the west”, a dynamic which she claims “feeds into white supremacist ideology”.

She later writes:
On Friday, Sky News broadcast a clip of [Ukrainian] people making Molotov cocktails – effectively bombs – explaining in intricate detail how to make these devices as effective as possible. Can you imagine if these were Syrians or Palestinians? They’d quickly be branded as terrorists.

First, her entire racial paradigm is based on the false characterisation of Palestinians as “black and brown” and, at least implicitly, Israelis as white. As we’ve demonsrated previously, a majority of Israel’s citizens are not ‘white’, but ‘people of colour’, in that they claim Mizrachi, Ethiopian, or Arab ancestries. Unlike the US and UK (and Ukraine), Israel is a majority ‘minority’ country. In fact, if you picked random groups of Palestinians and put them next to random groups of Israelis, it often wouldn’t be easy to tell which was the ‘white’ group.

Even worse than her racial distortion, however, is her political one.

Citizens of democratic Ukraine making Molotov cocktails are doing so to throw at tanks which are part of an unprovoked military onslaught by an authortitarian, expansionist Russian regime. Palestinians, on the other hand, who manufacture and use bombs against Israelis typically use such explosives on civilians, and are usually affiliated with antisemitic extremist organisations which seek Israel’s destruction.






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