Fragile Lebanon

Did you ever received a parcel saying "fragile" but the sticker "this side up" was missing so you never knew how to handle the package carefully? This is how I feel towards Lebanon. How to approach Lebanons fragile state at this moment?

Hezbollah is threatening, because of the Hariri Tribunal, which it wants to boycott amid unconfirmed reports that an impending indictment would implicate its members. This worries of course the Lebanese army. A general said ahead of the UN indictment:

"I am worried but I am not afraid," General Jean Kahwaji, who rarely makes public statements, told the daily An Nahar. "We have deployed sufficient troops in Beirut and have studied all other areas at risk," he said. "The army will be firm... in all areas and particularly Christian areas," he said without elaborating.

This is how Hezbollah threatens in the meanwhile:

Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has openly warned Lebanese against further cooperation with the tribunal.

His second-in-command, Sheikh Naim Qassem, has said charges against Hezbollah would be "equivalent to lighting the fuse, to igniting the wick for an explosion."

(...)

Last week a report in the daily Al Akhbar, which is close to Hezbollah, said the Shia party had quietly sent its partisans throughout the country in a dry run for a possible takeover of the capital and other areas in the aftermath of the STL indictment.

The fact that people die as a result of clashes between the Lebanese army and "gunmen" might be a warning for worse to come.

A package usually will not crash itself when you just stand there and watch it. We can wait and see, but I just hope the package was not a ticking bomb.

Maybe it's not such a stupid move by Netanyahu to withdraw from the northern part of the village Ghajar after all.