James Zogby's logical fallacies

James Zogby writes in the Huffington Post:

In 1991, Israel's per capita GDP was $14,000. Three years later, after the ending of the secondary boycott and Madrid and Oslo, Israel's per capita GDP had risen to almost $16,000. Palestinians did not fare as well. In 1991, their per capita GDP was $900. Three years later, new Israeli restrictions on Palestinian labor and continued control over all access to and egress from the territories, resulted in the Palestinian per capita GDP only increasing to $1,100.

He uses this as evidence that the ending of the secondary Arab boycott of Israel helped Israel far more than it helped Palestinian Arabs, and therefore for Arab nations to be more careful about how they treat Israel.

The logical fallacies here are breathtaking, and cannot be anything but purposeful.

Firstly, let's look at his numbers themselves. From what he is saying, in the same time period that Israeli per-capita GDP increased by 14%, those of Palestinan Arabs rose by - 22%! So even by his own numbers he proves the exact opposite of what he is trying to say.

Now let's look at the bigger picture. He is implying that Israel's GDP increased because the Arab boycott had been removed. But Israel's per-capita GDP had been increasing steadily before, during and after this time period, showing no causality at all:

Israel	2007	23,383
Israel	2006	20,863
Israel	2005	19,612
Israel	2004	18,804
Israel	2003	17,926
Israel	2002	17,259
Israel	2001	19,143
Israel	2000	19,871
Israel	1999	18,085
Israel	1998	18,418
Israel	1997	18,627
Israel	1996	18,579
Israel	1995	17,601
Israel	1994	15,689
Israel	1993	14,424
Israel	1992	14,939
Israel	1991	13,905
Israel	1990	12,611
Israel	1989	10,973
Israel	1988	11,266
Israel	1987	9,402
Israel	1986	7,944

The only dip that Israel experienced in its growth of GDP was during the depths of the second intifada.

If one wants to see what drives the Palestinian Arab GDP, look at the same time period:

Occupied Palestinian Territory	2007	1,359
Occupied Palestinian Territory	2006	1,261
Occupied Palestinian Territory	2005	1,288
Occupied Palestinian Territory	2004	1,213
Occupied Palestinian Territory	2003	1,117
Occupied Palestinian Territory	2002	1,029
Occupied Palestinian Territory	2001	1,168
Occupied Palestinian Territory	2000	1,307
Occupied Palestinian Territory	1999	1,376
Occupied Palestinian Territory	1998	1,348
Occupied Palestinian Territory	1997	1,312
Occupied Palestinian Territory	1996	1,238
Occupied Palestinian Territory	1995	1,230
Occupied Palestinian Territory	1994	1,123
Occupied Palestinian Territory	1993	936
Occupied Palestinian Territory	1992	1,105
Occupied Palestinian Territory	1991	932
Occupied Palestinian Territory	1990	899
Occupied Palestinian Territory	1989	860
Occupied Palestinian Territory	1988	940
Occupied Palestinian Territory	1987	925
Occupied Palestinian Territory	1986	871

There are two major dips in the Palestinian Arab per-capita GDP - in 1989 and in 2000-2001. They both coincide perfectly with the first and second intifadas!

So if you want to draw conclusions from the statistics, the inescapable conclusion is that Palestinian Arab terror is the major driver for a reduction in Palestinian Arab standards of living. Conversely, relatively peaceful periods show that the Palestinian Arab GDP steadily increases when they aren't as focused on killing Jews.

If Zogby wants to help his Palestinian Arab friends, he should be encouraging them to stop their obsession with violence.

The fact that he isn't doing that speaks volumes.