Tuesday, November 17, 2020
- Tuesday, November 17, 2020
- Elder of Ziyon
Iran, al-Qaeda, and Joe Biden’s Middle East Trap
In terms of power, commerce, and security co-operation in the region, more has transpired in the last four years in the Middle East than the previous forty. The Democrats’ loathing of President Trump aside, reaffirming a commitment to an utterly discredited policy experiment would be a disastrous early foray into foreign policy.
Iran is now thought to have accumulated enormous amounts of enriched uranium. It continues to finance global terrorist networks and, most importantly, because of this leaked information, is now publicly linked to support of al-Qaeda.
And that, perhaps, is most interesting of all in this intrigue. Shi’ite Iran is not a natural ally of Sunni al-Qaeda, but the Iranians have proven to be accommodating when it comes to financing and controlling terrorist entities with aligned interests. But now, this exposure of a key al-Qaeda operative being protected by the regime makes it much more difficult for the Biden administration to court Iran. American forgiveness of al-Qaeda is not a popular position and would appear to play into the extreme left-wing of the Democratic party, which Biden is under extraordinary pressure to control and marginalize.
The leak of this operation will surely heighten the pressure on Biden to rethink his approach to JCPOA and Iran. Perhaps that was the point.
Americans are likely to be enraged by the prospect of appeasing a nation that harbors and supports al-Qaeda’s leadership. And that will mess things up for Biden. It has far less to do with Trump and much more to do with the alliances forged between Israel and its neighbors in the wake of Obama’s JCPOA dream. Whether they can see clearly through their hatred of the outgoing president and properly assess the Middle East four years on remains to be seen.
What is clear is that the prospect of getting all chummy with al-Qaeda benefactors makes JCPOA 2.0 way more difficult.
Dan Schueftan: The U.S. Should Back Allies, "Break" Enemies in the Middle East
The emerging coalition between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and others brokered by the Trump administration has greatly checked Iran's ambitions. The Gulf Arabs now understand that Israel is the "only regional element that has a strong enough motivation to fight Iran" and "can be trusted because it must fight Iran for its own good."
However, Schueftan believes the "one major mistake" in the Trump administration's Middle East policy is its underestimation of the danger of Turkey, which he suggests is "going in the direction of a totalitarian regime" under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Not only is Turkey projecting its military power, notably in Syria and Libya, but it is sponsoring the Muslim Brotherhood, which has a presence throughout the Arab world. "The Muslim brothers are extremely dangerous because they have learned to pretend to be moderate ...They are as radical as you can possibly get, but smart enough to hide it."
Schueftan strongly recommends "persisting with the existing [U.S.] policy of maximum pressure on Iran" and "supporting local allies" against it, and he believes the same two-fold approach should be applied to Turkey. This means "see[ing] to it that Erdoğan's economy is undermined ... once he is economically challenged, he may lose a lot of support in Turkey." It means not only "backing the Greeks and the Cypriots against the Turkish attempt to dominate the Eastern Mediterranean," but also supporting the Kurds.
"Anything that the Iranian regime agrees to is ipso facto bad and dangerous for the other side."
Trying to reach an accommodation with either Iran or Turkey is a bad idea in Schueftan's view. "Anything that the Iranian regime agrees to is ipso facto bad and dangerous for the other side, if they agree to something, it means that we have been given a raw deal." The same zero-sum principle applies to Turkey. "Whatever is bad for Erdoğan, I think is good for the region."
- Tuesday, November 17, 2020
- Elder of Ziyon
- analysis, Daled Amos
Richard Nixon. Public domain |
"Ever since the airlift of the Yom Kippur War, the Arabs have come to understand that America will not allow Israel to be weakened. A defeat of Israel is a victory for the USSR. Paradoxically, this is what has raised America's prestige in the Arab world, and has given Washington leverage. Today in the Middle East, Moscow is a synonym for instability and war, Washington for stability and negotiation." (Yehuda Avner, The Prime Ministers, p. 270)
Yitzhak Rabin. Public domain |
Mr. President, I am convinced that we have witnessed in recent months a turning point in the history of the Middle East -- a turning toward an honorable, just, and endurinable peace -- and have ushered in a new era in U.S.-Arab relations. A direction has been set, and it is my firm intention to stay on the course we have chartered. (p. 271)
When President Sadat made his historic visit to Jerusalem on 19 November 1977 I was no longer prime minister. Yet that visit -- and the subsequent moves toward achieving a peace treaty -- could never have come about were it not for the course my government adopted in signing the 1975 interim agreement. That our policy provoked the anger of Likud has not prevented Mr. Begin's government from reaping the fruits of our labors. Of course, that is how things should be, since the quest for peace is not a contest between political parties...The 1975 agreement with Egypt was never meant to be an end in itself. As its title implies, it was designed to advance the momentum toward peace, and in that sense it achieved its purpose. [emphasis added] (quoted in The Prime Ministers, p.302)
The context for this description of the Middle East is Rabin's response to Avner's question as to why he shook Arafat's hand at the signing of the Oslo Accords:Number one: Israel is surrounded by two concentric circles. The inner circle is comprised of our immediate neighbors—Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon, and, by extension, Saudi Arabia. The outer circle comprises their neighbors—Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Sudan, Yemen and Libya. Virtually all of them are rogue states, and some are going nuclear.
Number two, Iranian-inspired Islamic fundamentalism constitutes a threat to the inner circle no less than it does to Israel. Islamic fundamentalism is striving to destabilize the Gulf Emirates, has already created havoc in Syria, leaving twenty thousand dead, in Algeria, leaving one hundred thousand dead, in Egypt, leaving twenty-two thousand dead, in Jordan, leaving eight thousand dead, in the Horn of Africa—the Sudan and Somalia—leaving fourteen thousand dead, and in Yemen, leaving twelve thousand dead. And now it is gaining influence in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
Iran is the banker, pouring millions into the West Bank and Gaza in the form of social welfare and health and education programs, so that it can win the hearts of the population and feed religious fanaticism.
Thus, a confluence of interest has arisen between Israel and the inner circle, whose long-term strategic interest is the same as ours: to lessen the destabilizing consequences from the outer circle. At the end of the day, the inner circle recognizes they have less to fear from Israel than from their Muslim neighbors, not least from radicalized Islamic powers going nuclear.
Number three: the Arab-Israeli conflict was always considered to be a political one: a conflict between Arabs and Israelis. The fundamentalists are doing their level best to turn it into a religious conflict—Muslim against Jew, Islam against Judaism. And while a political conflict is possible to solve through negotiation and compromise, there are no solutions to a theological conflict. Then it is jihad—religious war: their God against our God. Were they to win, our conflict would go from war to war, and from stalemate to stalemate. [emphasis added] (p. 707)
He and his PLO represent the last vestige of secular Palestinian nationalism. We have nobody else to deal with. It is either the PLO or nothing. It is a long shot for a possible settlement, or the certainty of no settlement at all at a time when the radicals are going nuclear.With the growing threat of Islamic fundamentalism, negotiating with secular Palestinian Arabs made sense to Rabin.
- Tuesday, November 17, 2020
- Elder of Ziyon
- ElderToons
- Tuesday, November 17, 2020
- Elder of Ziyon
Monday, November 16, 2020
Democrats, Media Stand On The Graves Of European Jews To Hit Trump
To even consider using Kristallnacht in the same sentence as Donald Trump, let alone in an attempt to compare Trump to the Nazi Party, is to stand on the ashes of European Jewry. Hitler and the Nazi Party openly acted upon their expressed desire to eradicate the Jewish people. Given that the Trump administration has yet to discriminate against Jews in any manner, when Amanpour said “after four years of a modern-day assault on those same values,” what exactly does she mean?Israel demands Amanpour apologize for comparing Kristallnacht and Trump
Donald Trump and the Republican Party do not have an official paramilitary wing, and any relevant policies during Trump’s first term have been overwhelmingly pro-Jewish and pro-Israel. When it comes to the targeting of Jewish businesses, homes, or places of worship, there are certainly anti-Semites on the radical wings of both sides, but the mainstream implicit endorsement of such actions are unique to one side of the political spectrum, and it’s not the political Right.
After all, it was not a Republican who used the same rhetoric of “hypnosis” and “wealth” when condemning the “evil doings” of the Jewish state. It was not a Republican who supported the boycott of Jewish businesses. It was not a Republican who endorsed a one-state solution which would result in the expulsion or mass murder of millions of Israeli Jews.
So, we must conclude that Amanpour is using one of the darkest moments in Jewish history as a proxy to describe a supposed attack on some unknown set of “values” which Biden and Harris will somehow defend and prevent. For her, the suffering of Jews is a disposable weapon which can be wielded in pursuit of Leftism and the Democratic Party.
It doesn’t matter that it is the mainstream Left who are burning books. It doesn’t matter that it is the mainstream Left who wish to actively enable nations who have called for the destruction of the Jewish State. And it doesn’t matter that it is the mainstream Left who are using the very same language which fueled Kristallnacht and the Holocaust.
Israeli Consul-General in Atlanta Anat Sultan-Dadon wrote a letter to CNN executive vice president Rick Davis, obtained by The Jerusalem Post on the condition that it not be quoted. The letter, sent two days after Amanpour’s remarks, explained that the Nazis murdered at least 90 Jews on Kristallnacht. They also arrested over 30,000 Jews and deported them to concentration camps. The night of Kristallnacht was the opening chapter of the Holocaust.
The consul-general expressed outrage at Amanpour’s use of the Holocaust for political means, and said it disrespects those who perished. Amanpour’s statements set off an immediate backlash on Twitter.
Former Israeli consul-general in New York Danny Dayan tweeted that “the foolish comparison Amanpour made between Kristallnacht and Trump must bring about her immediate dismissal from CNN. There is no immunity for Holocaust deniers.”
White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany called Amanpour's remarks "despicable," and said the CNN anchor "must apologize for trivializing the Holocaust & the tragic genocide of millions of Jews.
"They must also apologize for slandering the most pro-Israel President in history," she said.
2. Amanpour has thrived because her hatred for the Jewish state is considered "sophisticated" in her little, sick bubble of Western elitists who have spent the past 70 years pretending that anyone could have been Nazis -- especially the Jews. This erases Germany's culpability..3
— Caroline Glick (@CarolineGlick) November 16, 2020
Israel to send second astronaut into space
In about a year, Israel will send its second astronaut into space.
Former fighter pilot Eytan Stibbe will be trained in the United States, Germany and Russia before taking off from Florida in December 2021 for a 200-hour stay on the International Space Station (ISS).
This mission will be the first to the ISS manned entirely by private astronauts. Stibbe is donating his time and all costs of the journey, including expenses related to the experiments to be chosen for him to bring into space designed by Israeli scientists, entrepreneurs and students.
The announcement was made today at the President’s Residence in Jerusalem by the Ramon Foundation, the Israel Space Agency and the Israeli Ministry of Science and Technology.
Ran Livne, CEO of the foundation, will lead the project. He plans on special broadcasts from the space mission for Israeli children, including dozens of demonstrations, experiments and live calls from the ISS with schoolchildren across the country.
Israel’s first astronaut, Ilan Ramon, died in the explosion of the Space Shuttle Columbia in February 2003. Receiving his pilot wings in 1978, Stibbe flew under Ramon’s command in the 117 F-16 squadron.
Ramon’s son Tal said that Stibbe “and his family escorted us through the years through everything we went through, the good and the bad, and their family has become our family.”
- Monday, November 16, 2020
- Elder of Ziyon
- impossible peace, NSU Matrix, Palestine Papers
ISSUE |
CORE PRINCIPLES |
POSSIBLE FLEXIBILITY |
WATER AND OTHER NATURAL
RESOURCES |
|
|
General principles: International watercourses |
·
Water rights over
watercourses that cross international borders – all major
shared water sources between Palestine and Israel – must conform to the principle of equitable utilization under international law ·
Agree
on the allocation of the shared water resources based on the principle of equitable utilization (mainly the Jordan
river basin, the West Bank aquifers basins
and the Coastal
Aquifer Basin) |
·
Equal per capita approach
in determining equitable. ·
Agree to transition period of no longer than five years to implement new allocation. ·
Trade of water and exchange of water supply ·
Third Party Compliance Mechanism |
|
·
Agree on the joint management of the shared
water resources ·
Ensure that
persons in its
control take no action harming the quality of water or
damaging to aquifers ·
Right of Palestine to capture its equitable share
of watercourses and transport it to and within
its territory ·
Ability to construct, maintain
and operate water
installations and water pipelines to transport water
through Israel to Palestine |
|
General principles: Natural
resources |
·
The principle of permanent
sovereignty over natural resources.
Parties shall each enjoy sovereignty
over natural resources that are located entirely within its respective
international borders |
· |
SECURITY: Military withdrawal |
·
Full military withdrawal from Palestinian territory including airspace and
territorial waters. ·
Withdrawal according to clear timelines to be phased and
coordinated with Palestinian security forces and international monitors. ·
CAVEAT: In negotiating security demands by Israel, the details are critical. That is, an agreement at the political level that does not cover technical details leaves open a range of contentious issues that must still be carefully negotiated. Not addressing the details risks granting Israel
the effective capability to assert a substantial and permanent military presence on |
·
May choose to agree to
limited, temporary, and specific
arrangements to meet clearly defined and
legitimate security concerns of Israel. (e.g. early warning station, arrangements for deployment in emergency situations – see below.) |
Limits on Palestinian military capacity
Early Warning Stations
Israeli presence in the Jordan
Valley |
Palestinian territory.
·
Palestine not seeking to be a military state (no offensive military capability); however,
it requires a small
adequately equipped army
for defensive purposes including
ground, air and maritime components.
·
No need for EWS on Palestinian territory.
· Palestine will have full sovereignty over Jordan Valley; no Israeli presence. |
·
Prepared to negotiate
specific restrictions on types of permissible military equipment (based on international standards). ·
RED LINE: Will not
agree to “dual
use” equipment defined as
such by Israel. May consider certain limited
restrictions, but only based on international standards and practice.
·
In past negotiations agreed
to EWS in principle
– but no more than 2, and subject to detailed arrangements: use and access, leasing, time limits, international presence, inspection. ·
Note: Due to developments
in technology there are other alternatives that adequately meet Israeli concerns(detecting a threat from the East) , therefore EWS are technically not needed
·
This is
a red line. As an alternative, Palestine could welcome a strong |
Emergency deployment of Israeli forces on Palestinian territory
Airspace
Security Cooperation |
·
Palestine will
not agree to Israeli military presence on its territory under any circumstances.
·
Palestine will have full sovereignty over its airspace. ·
No military use for training
or otherwise. ·
Civilian flights
will be regulated by the Chicago Convention and applicable international norms of civil aviation.
· Agree to
bilateral and regional security cooperation |
international presence in the Jordan
Valley.
·
Applicable standard should
be international law (law of armed conflict) that regulates the
deployment of forces on
foreign territory. ·
In case of decision to
agree to emergency deployment, it is critical
to have detailed and specific
agreement on such issues as: what constitutes emergency, duration, liability and compensation, restriction on areas of deployment etc…)
·
May agree to full
coordination and cooperation in
management and air traffic control for civil aviation; subject, however, to sovereignty of each
state over its respective airspace. |
RELATIONS BETWEEN PALESTINE AND ISRAEL |
|
|
DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS |
·
Full diplomatic relations both between
Palestine |
· |
|
and Israel
and between Arab States and Israel shall not be instated until full implementation of the comprehensive agreement |
|
ECONOMIC RELATIONS |
·
Trade Relations based on free trade and preferential treatment principles. ·
Removal
of all tariffs and non tariff barriers,
national and most favored
nation treatment for
both industrial and agricultural products. ·
Free trade in services, investments and free movement
of labour. ·
Transit arrangements based on international standards. |
·
Trade regime should
preferably be based on a Free Trade
Area model but can also be based
on Most Favored Nation model with sectoral agreements. ·
Trade in services, investments and labour can be freed
gradually. ·
Transit should preferably
be based on door to door movement but can also
be based on a modern and
efficient back to back
system. |
SECURITY RELATIONS |
·
See security above |
·
See security above |
BORDER REGIME |
·
Palestinians must ensure control
over their own border regime. |
·
Border
regime will depend greatly on the security
and economic regimes
agreed. The
preference from the perspective of many files is a more open
border regime. |
CIVIL AVIATION |
·
Must comply
with Chicago Convention and the 1944 International Air Services
Transit Agreement. Palestine will have control
of its air traffic. |
·
Possible joint air traffic
control. |
ELECTROMAGNETIC SPHERE |
·
Palestine will have sovereignty and control over
the Electromagnetic Sphere
(“EMS”) covering OPT/Palestine as this is an
essential and non- negotiable element of sovereignty. Any |
·
Very little room to
negotiate limited frequency use by
Israel for security purposes. Palestine will consider Israel’s requests and allocate the necessary |
|
interference re: frequencies will be dealt with at the International Telecommunications Union |
frequencies (which will
be time limited). Any use will be charged at commercial rates and/or exchanged for use of Israel’s EMS. |
OTHER AREAS OF STATE TO STATE RELATIONS |
·
Please see State-to-State Memorandum |
·
Flexibility
is required in negotiations with respect
to tourism, religious sites, archaeological artifacts, monetary affairs,
etc. |
PRISONERS AND DETAINEES |
·
Release
of all Palestinian detainees and
prisoners immediately. |
· |
IMPLEMENTATION MATTERS |
|
|
TRANSITIONAL ARRANGEMENTS |
·
Israel shall continue to
provide services to the Palestinian
population consistent with its obligations under international law until the end of occupation. ·
Palestinian
Jerusalemites shall receive Palestinian citizenship
once Palestine takes control of the area they reside
in, and upon full implementation of the Treaty. ·
All rights
and monetary and other benefits accrued under Israel shall be preserved. |
· |
INFRASTRUCTURE |
·
Palestine
shall have all right, title, interest and control to all water, sewage, electricity and communications installations and equipment in Palestinian territory. |
· |
INTERNATIONAL ENDORSEMENT AND |
·
Endorsement of the agreement by the United
Nations Security Council |
·
The precise
role and composition of the presence can be agreed
in many |
SUPERVISION |
·
International monitoring,
verification and supervision needed of most elements of both FAPS and CAPS. ·
All international involvement must be coordinated and agreed. ·
Guarantees should
be built in to the mechanism to ensure Israeli implementation
of the agreements, and guard
against another Oslo situation. ·
An independent
commission(s) must be established
for dealing with claims by both refugees and those Palestinians who
suffered losses due to Israel’s occupation. Details can be set in Treaty. |
permutations.
Core point is that the presence
monitors and guarantees compliance with and implementation of the
agreements.
·
Similarly,
details of the independent commission(s) can be agreed in the CAPS, but Israel’s agreement to their establishment must be secured
in the FAPS. |
SETTLEMENT OF DISPUTES |
·
Palestine seeks robust mechanism for settlement of any
disputes arising from interpretation and implementation of the FAPS or the Treaty. ·
Decisions made in this process must be binding
and enforceable. |
· |
FINAL CLAUSES |
·
Israel must not initiate
or take any steps that will change the
status of the West Bank, including
Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip or violate international law. ·
All
interim or other agreements between the PLO and Israel
shall remain in effect until
the signature of the CAPS, insofar as they do not contradict the FAPS. ·
Parties shall share maps data and other |
· |
|
information relevant
to the negotiations. |
|
Many of these demands have nothing to do with building an independent, sovereign state - but to hurt Israel. There is essentially no attempt to come up with a solution that would be acceptable to both parties. This third column, on "possible flexibility," says all you need to know about how little the Palestinians truly want peace.