Elder Of Ziyon - Israel News

Thursday, January 13, 2005

Critics slam report debunking demographic threat

By Yair Ettinger (Ha'aretz)

An extra-academic document that debunks one of the foundations of the disengagement plan, 'the demographic bomb,' will be presented in Washington today to a prestigious academic institution with substantial influence on the Bush administration. The document, which Haaretz has obtained, (since I obtained it too at their website, I guess I'm a journalist just like Ha'aretz! -EoZ) argues that 2.4 million Palestinians live in the West Bank and Gaza Strip today, and not the 3.8 million claimed by the Palestinian Authority.
In sharp contrast to population studies conducted in Israel by professors Arnon Sofer and Sergio della Pergola, the document argues that Jews continue to maintain a solid 60 percent majority between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea.

An Israeli-American group whose members are clearly identified with the right authored the ABC Demographic Project. The group undercuts a prevailing assumption in Israel's public debate - that Jews have ceased, or will soon cease to be, a majority in that territory. The demographic danger is not 'all it's made out to be,' the writers state.

Della Pergola called the document 'groundless,' politically slanted and baseless from a research perspective. None of the signatories to the document is a professional in demographic research. Among its authors are former Israeli consul in Texas Yoram Ettinger (no relation to this reporter), former West Bank Civil Administration head Brigadier General (res.) David Shahaf and former Israeli health official Professor Ezra Zohar.

The research was initiated and funded by Los Angeles Jewish businessman Ben Zimmerman and U.S.-based partners, historian Dr. Roberta Seid of the University of South Carolina and businessman Michael Wise.

A great deal of the interest in the document stems from the seal of approval it received from U.S. demographers which paved the way for the invitation to its authors to present their findings to influential conservative think tank American Enterprise Institute in Washington.

Later this week, the document will be presented in New York to the Conference of Presidents of Major Jewish Organizations.

I have no idea of the scientific methods used in the document, but I strongly suspect that there is a lot of truth in it. - EoZ

The Emotional Argument for Israel

When I give political opinions in cyberspace, I usually stay away from arguments that would be regarded as "religious" such as "Israel was a nation 2000 years ago and therefore is a legitimate place for Jews to live today." I would stick with what I consider the quite justifiable arguments relying on modern Zionist history; after all, modern Israel has at least as legitimate claim on her land as any nation created in the past 500 years. (How many other nations were voted into existence by other nations of the world?)

Nevertheless, the argument from ancient Israel has merit as well, even to a secular audience. You do not find Italians praying for the re-establishment of ancient Rome or anyone longing for Assyria, Canaan, Babylonia or any other ancient kingdom.

But Jews have NEVER reliquished their claim to Israel. Daily prayers ask for the rebuilding of Jerusalem. Jews have almost continuously been trying to move to Israel, an area with almost no natural resources, since the Roman conquest. Jewish immigration to the area pre-dates modern Zionism by many centuries (look at the history of Safed/Tzfat, for example.)

Further evidence comes from what happened since the establishment of the state. A significant percentage of world Jewry now lives in Israel, even though they can easily choose to move to other places. The only reason for this is because for Jews, Israel does have an emotional pull that no other place has.

The Jewish claim to Israel is not modern; it truly is ancient and continuous. And this claim is nothing to be embarrassed about. An emotional tie to the land is just as strong, if not much stronger, than a political or nationalistic claim.

Right now the second and third holiest Jewish sites in the world (the Cave of the Patriarchs in Hebron and Rachel's Tomb in Bethlehem) are in trouble. The only argument for keeping them in Jewish hands is purely emotional. But that is a strong argument! Not everything is logical, and the love that the Jewish people have for Israel is not logical as well. But it is there, and it is what will ultimately win the battle for Israel.

Don't think that the Palestinians don't use their fictional emotional argument to score points as well. They made up an entire history of their people (as well as delegitimizing the Jewish historical ties to the land) with that exact reason in mind. On demand they can produce throngs of wailing women; perfect for the 6:00 News. How can a lawyer argue with crying women?

The reluctance to use the emotional argument hurts Israel's PR efforts. When Israel makes its arguments rationally of her rights, that implies that a better counter-argument would destroy Israel's right to exist. But emotional arguments cannot be argued against.

We all know about the double standard that Israel is subjected to, that Israel is expected to act in ways that no other nation is expected to. A major unspoken assumption in the double-standard is that Jews are rational and therefore can be expected to act rationally. Of course there has to be some sort of territorial compromise, this thinking goes; so the Jews should understand that and do the right thing. But the Arabs cannot be reasoned with - they are emotional, they might engage in terror, they might incite the "Arab street", they might raise the prices of oil if we anger them - so keep them happy. Israel won't act irrationally, Israel wouldn't hurt the someone because of a perceived insult, so only Israel can be expected to make concessions.

There is great tactical advantage in sometimes going crazy. I have a friend who would, about once a year at work, just start shouting at some departmental meeting for no good reason. He did this to make the boss tiptoe around him a little, to treat him a little more deferentially, because who knows what will make him go off? It was a rational decision to be irrational.

When Israel uses the emotional argument, no one can tell her to think clearly. The Tomb of the Patriarchs will never be in non-Jewish hands again, ever - this is a red-line statement that should be made. Jews have the absolute right to live anywhere they want in the Middle East, especially in Biblical Israel - another non-negotiable statement, not open to compromise or reason. We can argue it is important for security until we are blue, but security can be mitigated in theory - people's feelings cannot be. Transferring Jews out of their ancient homeland is more of a crime than transferring Arabs out - why is saying such a statement forbidden in diplomatic circles today? Only because we try so hard to be rational, to be intellectual, to use our brains and not our hearts.

Even without resorting to biblical arguments, the emotional argument is not being used. Imagine the pain of having to move out of your home where you lived for decades, where your schools are, where your cemeteries are - how come these arguments are so muted? Isn't that argument at least as compelling as any that is for the transfer of Jews?

But the winner in a battlefield in the end is usually the one with the most heart. If Palestinian Arabs are being taught from birth that their homeland is in that narrow strip of land, every Israeli kid should be taught the same - with the added benefit of its being true! And this is why you cannot discount the chances for the tiny number of Gaza Jewish residents to win: they have more heart.

Iran will be able to enrich uranium in 6 months

Iran could become capable of enriching uranium in six months and develop atomic weapons in two years if it is not stopped by the West, Military Intelligence head Maj. Gen. Aharon Ze'evi said yesterday.
Tehran, which has said it will suspend uranium enrichment, insists its atomic program is aimed solely at the peaceful generation of electricity, but Washington believes Iran's nuclear energy program is a front to build a bomb.

'According to estimates, Iran is not currently capable of enriching uranium to build a nuclear bomb, but it is only half a year away from achieving such independent capability, if it is not stopped by the West,' Ze'evi said in a lecture at Haifa University's National Security Studies Center.

Ze'evi said if Tehran did not stop its uranium enrichment activities, Iran would develop its first atomic weapon between 2007 and 2009.

'The Iranians can reach Portugal with nuclear weapons,' Ze'evi said. 'This doesn't worry the Europeans; they tell me that during the Soviet regime as well they were under a nuclear threat, and I try to explain to them that Iran is a different story.'"

IDF: Pullout to expose 46 Negev towns to Qassams

Forty-six communities in the western Negev will be exposed to Qassam rocket fire after the disengagement plan is implemented, a Home Front Command official told lawmakers yesterday.
Colonel Uzi Buchbinder, head of the civil defense department at the Home Front Command, told the Knesset Interior and Environment Committee that all of the threatened communities are within seven kilometers of the the Gaza Strip and are vulnerable to both rocket fire and infiltration.

The communities include Yad Mordechai, Or Ha'ner, Erez, Gevim, Kfar Aza, Miflasim, Nahal Oz, Nir Am, Ein Habesor, Ein Hashlosha, Talmei Yosef, Gvar-Am, Netiv Ha'asara, Be'eri, Holot, Dekel and Yovel.

Buchbinder briefed the committee on a Home Front Command plan designed to provide solutions for the threatened communities, including an early-warning system to alerting residents of incoming Qassam rockets, installing safety glass at schools and kindergartens throughout the region, and upgrading the physical protection for the population. Windows in school buildings have already been reinforced. Buchbinder said that NIS 340 million is needed to implement the plan, but that the funding has not been approved.

Colonel (res.) Mordechai Yogev of the National Security Forum presented the committee with a report that said that "the withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces from the Gaza Strip and northern Samaria will bring numerous large population centers and communities within the range of Qassam rockets and mortar shells, including Ashkelon in the south and the cities of Beit She'an, Afula, Pardes Hannah and Hadera in the north."

Yogev said the greatest danger is anticipated to be in the Ashkelon region, home to many strategic facilities, including three power stations - the Rotenberg power station and two others, facilities related to the Eilat-Ashkelon oil pipeline, and the massive gas tanks moved from Pi Gelilot near Tel Aviv to Ashkelon, as well as the large gas terminal to be built south of Ashkelon for the natural gas Israel will buy from Egypt. Up north, Qassam rockets will threaten the "Rabin Lights" power station in Hadera.

In the course of a committee session devoted to post-disengagement measures in the border communities, the deputy head of the National Security Council, Itamar Yaar, said that "as of today, the NSC does not have a sure-proof solution to Qassam rockets fired from short range."

According to Yaar, all of the territory to be evacuated under the plan are currently under IDF control, including areas in which there are Jewish settlements. By contrast, the Qassam rockets targeting Sderot are being fired from territories which are not under IDF control. He said that it is very important that the IDF provide solutions to security threats originating from areas with no Israeli presence.

The committee's chairman, MK Yuri Stern (National Union), said that "the disengagement plan is one of the most irresponsible decisions a government of Israel has ever taken. Any rational person who lends a hand to this will be called upon to give a reckoning some day."

The Unilateral Withdrawal: A Security Error of Historical Magnitude

This is a long article by Yaakov Amidror analyzing the security ramifications of a unilateral Gaza withdrawal. Here is the conclusion:

The proposed unilateral withdrawal contains a strategic, diplomatic, and military risk that has been described concisely by senior defense officials as 'backing for terror.' This expression has not merely a literal meaning, i.e., rockets being fired against Ashkelon, but also a broader, deeper one, of historic surrender to the wave of Islamic terror and words of encouragement to the terrorists in the vein of 'continue on your successful path.' Spain fled from Iraq because of terror in Madrid, and the Israelis will be regarded as fleeing from Gaza for the same reason.

That which we found easy to analyze and condemn regarding Spain, we prefer not to understand in the Palestinian context. Flight from terror, even if it is called 'unilateral withdrawal,' remains flight, and its results will be disastrous. Israel must remain where it is and make difficult, courageous decisions regarding regaining control of additional areas in the Gaza Strip in order to remove the capability of firing at Sderot. This is part of the IDF mandate.

If and when there will be someone to talk to on the other side, removal of settlements and the IDF presence can form bargaining chips in negotiations. The Israeli government, however, has played its cards without receiving anything in return, and therefore can only expect to experience more terror. This was explained better than anyone else by Prime Minister Sharon years ago when as an ordinary Knesset member he appeared at the Likud Central Committee and said, 'Labor wants to hand over the Gaza Strip, and even among us there are people who voice similar opinions . . . The Jews have apparently forgotten why we liberated it twice, in 1956 and 1967, from the Egyptian occupier (which followed a previous attempt to do so at the end of the War of Independence that nearly succeeded). Why did we pay the price three times? Because the Gaza Strip threatened us when it was not in our hands. What is proposed is to abandon the security of Ashkelon, Kiryat Gat, Sderot, Netivot, and dozens of kibbutzim and cooperative communities."

At the time Sharon made an excellent analysis of the tactical danger resulting from the disengagement. The current strategic danger is even greater.

In the Gulf War in the early 1990s, US soldiers fighting on the Middle Eastern battlefield sometimes found themselves using dressings dated from World War II to patch up their wounds. In the present Iraqi conflict, however, American forces are now using an advanced new bandage, developed in Israel, that can save lives by stopping traumatic hemorrhaging wounds, and can also be used as a tourniquet, or a sling. The new bandage, called the Emergency Bandage, was developed by First Care Products, a tiny four-man Jerusalem start-up. The bandage marks the first major alteration to field dressings since the 1940s, and has already established its worth. One of the major causes of death for soldiers at war is not the injury itself, but loss of blood on the battlefield. In the Vietnam war, for example, one in four soldiers died from hemorrhage bleeding or injuries to their extremities. In the current Iraqi war, only one in 10 deaths are attributable to this. One of the main reasons for this is that the US military has changed tactics. In the past, soldiers were taken off the battlefield and then treated for their injuries. Today, they are treated on the spot, which improves a victim's chances of survival. Often it is the soldier himself who takes responsibility for dealing with his wounds. The Emergency Bandage fits well into the new philosophy of military medicine. In the past, soldiers or medics treating wounds would have to use three or four different dressings to bandage a wound. It was time consuming and often it was difficult to achieve the right pressure on a wound to stop the bleeding. Ofer Molad, First Care's VP of marketing in the US, remembers how he and fellow soldiers serving in the Israel Defense Force (IDF), would wrap a rock into the bandage to maintain the right pressure. The Emergency Bandage, however, is an elasticized bandage with a non-adhesive bandage pad sewn in. The bandage has a built-in pressure bar, which allows the soldier to twist the bandage around the wound once, and then change the direction of the bandage, wrapping it around the limb or body part, to create pressure on the wound. Aside from this, the pressure bar also makes bandaging easier. A closure bar at the end of the bandage means that it clips neatly into place and will not slip. The pressure bar also enables a soldier to use the bandage on complicated injuries like the groin and head, which require wrapping in different directions. The bandage can be put on with one hand, as Molad deftly demonstrates. "It's a very versatile bandage," he says. "It can be applied quickly and easily by an injured soldier or non-medical personnel for immediate hemorrhage control. It saves time in an emergency situation where every second is crucial." Certainly the US military thinks so. Last year, the US Army purchased nearly 200,000 bandages for its troops. This year, the US Army purchased 800,000.

Abbas rips up roadmap, world continues to cheer his moderation

GAZA, Jan 11, 2005 (United Press International via COMTEX) -- Newly elected Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has informed Washington that he will not seek to disarm Palestinian militant groups.

Abbas relayed the message to the U.S. administration through former U.S. Consul in Jerusalem Edward Epington, the Saudi daily al-Watan reported Tuesday, quoting diplomatic sources in Washington.

Abbas argued that Palestinian armed groups did not pose the main problem in the Palestinian territories at this point.

He said clearly that 'he will not seek to disarm the militant groups, not now nor tomorrow' and that the first step should be working out a cease-fire 'after Israel agrees in writing to stop pre-emptive assassinations of Palestinian leaders.'

Abbas also stressed that his first priority will be reforming Palestinian institutions, combating corruption and restructuring the 14 security agencies.

Hamas calls for more suicide bombings

I'm sure that the press and Bush and Sharon have much to be optimistic about. All you have to do it close your eyes and click your heels three times, and say "Peace is around the corner. Peace is around the corner..." - EoZ

As the Palestinian Central Election Committee was holding a press conference in Ramallah on Monday to announce the final results of the election for the chairmanship of the Palestinian Authority, hundreds of students attended a rally organized by Hamas at Bir Zeit University, where they called for more suicide attacks against Israel.

'Oh suicide bomber, wrap yourself with an explosive belt and fill the scene with blood,' chanted a chorus of five male students at the rally, held by the Hamas-affiliated Islamic List to mark the ninth anniversary of the killing of Hamas bomb-maker Yehya Ayyash, better known as 'The Engineer.'

Green Hamas flags and large portraits of slain Hamas leaders Ahmed Yassin and Abdel Aziz Rantisi decorated the campus and the hall where some 500 activists gathered to honor the former university student responsible for a string of suicide bombings that killed at least 100 Israelis in the mid-90s.

Organizers said the timing of the parley was not linked to the election of Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) as Yasser Arafat's successor. Speakers refrained from making any reference to the election, pointing out the event, approved by the university administration, had been planned long before the vote. They also refused to comment on the results of the vote.

'Ayyash is alive and don't say that he's dead,' a speaker told the crowd, who responded by shouting 'Allahu Akbar! (God is great).' Another speaker described the Hamas bomb-maker as 'the engineer of death for those who deserved to die.'

The students also paid tribute to anther colleague, Izzaddin al-Masri, who carried out the suicide attack in Jerusalem's Sbarro restaurant in 2001, killing 15 people and wounding more than 100.

Palestinians exaggerate their numbers

The results of a new demographic study of the Palestinians shows that:

1. Today, the Palestinian-Arab population of the West Bank (1.4MN) and Gaza (1MN)
totals 2.4 million, rather than the 3.8 million reported by the Palestinian Central
Bureau of Statistics(PCBS).

2. A solid Jewish majority of 60% has been sustained – between the Jordan River
and the Mediterranean – since 1967. A solid 80% Jewish majority has been maintained
within the "Green Line".

3. Long-Term demographic trends re-entrench the Jewish majority.

In other words, the "demographic time bomb" that is taken as a fact and as a reason why Israel has no choice but to give up territory is false.

There may or may not be other reasons, but demography is not one of them. The report shows that the assumption that Palestinians reproduce at one of the highest rates in the world is simply false. (Comments by EoZ)

Tourists love Israel (even the British)

(IsraelNN.com) Interestingly, 80 per cent of visitors from Britain described their visit as “excellent” or “very good” according to a new survey conducted by the firm Geocartographia during the first half of 2004.

This following a recent survey by the UK Daily Telegraph showing Britons have a largely negative opinion of Israel. Statistics were compiled from a sample of 1,769 British visitors. Thirty-six per cent of British respondents stated their visit was “excellent”, 44 per cent said it was “very good”, 17 per cent described their experience as “good” and three per cent called it “reasonable” or “poor”. In 2004, 140,000 tourists arrived from the United Kingdom, a 44 per cent rise over 2003. In 2005, Israel’s Ministry of Tourism expects an additional 20 per cent more British tourists.

In total, 14,000 tourists from around the world were participated in the survey. Eighty per cent of all tourists also described their visit to Israel as either “excellent” or “very good,” and, on average, assigned their satisfaction a value of 4.2 out of 5.

The survey reveals that 73 per cent of all tourists were not concerned about traveling to Israel and 95 per cent of them would encourage their friends to visit the country as well.

The Moderate Terrorist speaks

As Fatah supporters shot their rifles in the air in celebration of the outcome of the seven-candidate race, Mr. Abbas gave his first victory speech last night. Calling the election results 'a victory for Yasser Arafat and the entire Palestinian people,' Mr. Abbas proclaimed: 'The small jihad is over and the big jihad has begun. We are facing tough missions - how to build a state of security where people live a dignified life.'"

Remember how the pundits said that when Abbas make pro-terror statements during the campaign that it was only "rhetoric" to get elected? Well, he hasn't seemed to get the memo. - EoZ