Bigger Than Just Iran
This was not, however, the first time Israel used its military against an enemy’s nuclear program. The history is noteworthy. Israel sent its air force to hit Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981 and to hit Syria’s nuclear facility in 2007. No major retaliation, let alone a new war, resulted, and neither Iraq nor Syria even tried to revive their nuclear weapons programs. Both decided it was not worthwhile to rebuild, given Israel’s determination to prevent any such program from succeeding.‘The stars aligned’: Why Israel set out for a war against Iran, and what it achieved
Trump’s action has produced criticism from the left and also within his political camp. Some MAGA critics have argued that Iran is a distraction from containing China and ending reckless government spending. Those are important priorities, but the spread of nuclear weapons is one of the greatest threats in the world to the security, prosperity, and well-being of Americans. Even by the strictest standards of MAGA restraint in world affairs, the United States has to prevent such proliferation.
If Iran became a nuclear power, the danger would extend beyond aggression, sponsorship of terrorism, and other bad actions by Iran. Iran’s achievement would spur Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, and other states in the Middle East and beyond to become nuclear powers too. The number of nuclear powers in the world, now fewer than 10, could in short order grow to 20 or 30. This would create greater risks of catastrophic accidents and "dirty" bomb terrorist attacks. If the world had dozens of nuclear powers, the likelihood of nuclear conflict would increase. Even a limited nuclear exchange could produce enormous harm, and not just to the parties involved in the exchange. It could gravely damage Americans by devastating global markets and supply chains, poisoning Earth’s atmosphere, and contaminating agriculture.
The blow struck by Operation Midnight Hammer will reverberate globally. Any country seeking a nuclear bomb—or considering providing one to others—now understands the United States may use force against it. This credible threat will make nonproliferation diplomacy more effective. It will reassure America’s allies that Washington is intent on maintaining the nuclear status quo.
The U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities is more than a tactical military success. It is a strategic reaffirmation of American global leadership. Nuclear nonproliferation efforts since 1945 have not been a perfect success. But they have been astonishingly effective. They represent one of the most significant achievements of the United States (and key partners) in international security. That fewer than 10 nations possess nuclear weapons today reflects the effectiveness of combined diplomatic, economic, and military pressures. The strike against Iran reinforces the point—critical to the interests of the United States and the world in general—that rogue states pursuing nuclear weapons will face not just disapproving diplomacy and economic sanctions, but maybe also military destruction. It’s a harsh but constructive message.
Over the past decades, Israel has come up with numerous different plans to attack Iran’s nuclear program. None of them were activated, nor were they considered ready. Until this month.The 12-day gamble: How the Israel-Iran war unfolded
In the early hours of June 13, the Israel Defense Forces launched what it dubbed a “preemptive” operation against not just the Iranian nuclear program, but the wider threat of Iran’s ballistic missiles and its overarching plans to destroy Israel.
The war began with surprise strikes carried out by the Israeli Air Force in Tehran and other areas of Iran, some 1,500 kilometers from Israel. The sudden assault was multifaceted.
In what is now known as Operation Red Wedding, some 30 top Iranian military commanders — including the three most senior generals — were eliminated in near-simultaneous strikes in Tehran, which, according to the IDF, disrupted Iran’s command and control and prevented it from responding to Israel for nearly a full day.
Most significant among them was the chief of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards’ air force, Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, who was killed alongside the rest of the top brass of the IRGC Aerospace Force — responsible for Iran’s ballistic missiles and drones — as they met in an underground command center to prepare Iran’s retaliation.
A window of opportunity emerged. Iran’s proxies had been depleted in the wake of the Oct. 7 massacre. At great cost, Israel was able to weaken Hamas and also impair Hezbollah. The Lebanese terrorist group agreed to a ceasefire in November 2024. With US President Donald Trump in office, Israel’s leadership believed it could act against Iran. Iran also lost out in Syria when the Assad regime fell in December 2024. This meant that the road was now open to Iran.Mossad had 'boots on the ground' in Iran for over a decade before war - report
The road was open because the new government in Damascus opposes Iran. Iraq is a weak state and can’t stop Israel’s efforts against Iran, even though Iraq has pro-Iranian militias. The Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq also fears Iran’s power and is likely pleased to see the regime weakened. That means Israel felt it could act.
Israel’s initial sorties were effective against parts of the nuclear program and key officials in Tehran. In addition, Iranian nuclear scientists were targeted. Iran fired back, killing more than 24 Israelis in several days. It also wounded up to 3,000 people in 12 days of war and caused 10,000 Israelis to be displaced, as Iranian missiles destroyed neighborhoods.
Around 50 missiles impacted Israel of the 500 that were launched. Israel continued daily strikes on Iran, destroying its air defenses and going after other Iranian regime elements.
On June 22, the US joined the war with an attack on three nuclear sites, including using massive munitions on Fordow. This was supposed to have destroyed key parts of the nuclear program. It is likely that many parts remain and that Iran can rebuild its ballistic missiles. The question now is whether Iran will change its tune and stop trying to move toward a nuclear weapon. Iran is weakened, but its regime has not collapsed. Israel’s 12-day war was a gamble, and it was made possible by a unique set of circumstances. Much remains to be seen if it was the game changer that some people think it was.
Mossad agents had been monitoring nuclear sites in Iran for nearly 15 years before the start of the Israel-Iran War, The Times reported on Friday.
According to leaked intelligence documents seen by The Times, the Mossad realized that Iran’s capability, knowledge, and components of the nuclear program expanded beyond the main sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
An intelligence source told The Times that the Mossad had “boots on the ground” at several different locations across Iran since 2010.
Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan were destroyed by US and Israeli strikes at the start of the month, though there has been notable debate about the damage to the sites.
The intelligence documents showed that Iran aimed to produce at least 1,000 long-range missiles a year, and wanted to amass an arsenal of 8,000 missiles.
However, the Islamic Republic reportedly started the war with Israel with a maximum of 2,500 missiles.
An intelligence cited in the documents said that Mossad agents visited every workshop and factory that were later attacked during the war to target “the entire industry that supported the manufacturing of large amounts of missiles.”
Israel launched the 12-day war based on intelligence that Iran was building centrifuges at sites in Tehran and Isfahan.
Spies built maps of nuclear enrichment sites, infiltrated IRGC
An intelligence source cited in the documents said that Mossad agents visited every workshop and factory that were later attacked during the war to target “the entire industry that supported the manufacturing of large amounts of missiles.”
Israel launched the 12-day war based on intelligence that Iran was building centrifuges at sites in Tehran and Isfahan.
The Times reported that the US attack on Iran targeted seven parts of Iran’s main uranium enrichment site, Natanz. Israeli intelligence used spies on the ground to create a map of Natanz and identify aboveground and underground structures that included piping, feeding, and solidification of uranium. The Israel Air Force also targeted electric infrastructure, a research building, the site’s transformer station, and a backup generator.
The IDF also targeted several other sites related to nuclear weapons developments, such as Isfahan and the Shariati military site.
Many of these were reportedly set up by the SPND, an organization led by now-dead Iranian nuclear physicist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. He was reportedly assassinated by Israel in 2020 by a satellite-controlled machine gun.
Additionally, the leaked documents showed that the Mossad had infiltrated the IRGC headquarters as well as the Sanjarian nuclear site, which reportedly developed nuclear weapons components.
