Washington’s U-turn on Ukraine a ‘challenge’ for Israel, experts say
According to Chatham House senior fellow and former Knesset member Ksenia Svetlova, “what happened in the White House with Zelensky shows that the U.S. doesn’t have a constant policy or permanent allies. If there are no permanent allies, if Ukraine is thrown into the trash after all these years … no one is immune.”Khaled Abu Toameh: Why Arabs Don't Want To Receive Palestinian Ex-Prisoners
According to Svetlova, the fact that the Biden administration froze some weapon shipments to Israel amid domestic political pressure shows that “there are no holy cows, not even Israel.”
“Even in the current term, Trump can change. If there are no constant interests or doctrines, that means anything can change. Israel must be prepared to become like Ukraine,” she said.
Emmanuel Navon, CEO of European pro-Israel organization ELNET and an international relations lecturer at Tel Aviv University, argued that while Trump could theoretically change his mind at any time, Israel is in a different situation because it has strong backing in Trump’s coalition of supporters.
“Ukraine is a place that most Americans don’t really care about, especially not Trump’s constituents,” Navon said. “Israel is important to evangelical voters. Trump cares about his voters and they care about Israel, not Ukraine.”
As for the cease-fire agreement that the Trump administration is trying to negotiate between Russia and Ukraine, Svetlova warned that Trump is “forcing an agreement without a security guarantee [for Ukraine] after three years of a war started by a violent neighbor … No defense will come of that.”
Yet, Svetlova said there is no comparison to the Trump administration’s involvement in Israel-Hamas cease-fire negotiations, where Israel has every advantage over Hamas – with the notable exception of the hostages.
Rather, Svetlova said, Trump’s approach to Ukraine could be a warning sign to Israel that he may push an Iran nuclear deal that is not sufficiently robust.
“It’s a matter of life and death for Israel,” she said. “The Saudis and Emiratis are in the same boat. [The countries] need to seriously discuss a policy not to cross Trump but also not to be a victim of this kind of coercion.”
The fact that Ukraine policy is creating a rift between the U.S. and Europe is also a problem for Israel when it comes to a coordinated response to the Iranian threat. The U.K., Germany and France are the only Western countries with the power to snap back all pre-2015 sanctions on Iran, an ability that expires in October.
Svetlova suggested that Israel plays a mediating role between the U.S. and Europe on Iran, pointing out that “sanctions will be much more effective if there is unity in the Western world on this. Any division is not good for us.”
Navon described European leaders as “completely horrified” at the Trump-Zelensky meeting.
Still, Navon said that there is an opportunity for Israel in the Trump administration’s confrontational attitude towards Europe, citing Vice President J.D. Vance’s speech in Munich last month: “He castigated the Europeans, but said that if you want America to have your back, you have to be more respectful of our common Western values based on Christianity.”
He noted that the European right sees Israel as “one of the pillars of Western civilization” defending those values.
“This is great for Israel because you have quite a few conservative parties in Europe who are open to this message and supportive of Israel,” Navon added. “Israel can use this rift between the U.S. and Europe to its advantage.”
The Jordanians and Lebanese, for their part, have not forgotten how Palestinians sparked civil wars in their countries in the 70s and 80s.Gaza standoff: Netanyahu and Hamas' high-stakes cease-fire gamble
[The Arab countries'] refusal to take in Palestinian prisoners probably arises from the fact that these countries actually do not care about the Palestinians and even consider them an ungrateful people and troublemakers. Many Arabs also seem to have lost faith in the Palestinians' ability to implement reform and end rampant financial and administrative corruption in their governing bodies in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
"The Muslim Brotherhood is a terrorist organization. Help us modern-minded, secular, liberal Muslims marginalize their influence by declaring what they are: a terrorist organization." — Dr. M. Zuhdi Jasser, in testimony before the US House Oversight and Government Reform Subcommittee on National Security, July 11, 2018.
"In point of fact, nothing would be more pro-Muslim than the marginalization of the Muslim Brotherhood and its direct affiliates. Making the Muslim Brotherhood radioactive would allow the light to shine upon the most potent antagonists in Muslim communities: those who reject political Islamist groups and believe in liberty and the separation of mosque and state." — Dr. M. Zuhdi Jasser, in testimony before the US House Oversight and Government Reform Subcommittee on National Security, July 11, 2018.
"Call on American Muslim leaders to take a position on the Muslim Brotherhood and its overarching theo-political ideology. I ask my fellow Muslims: Will they be the side of freedom, liberty, and modernity, or will they be on the side of tyranny of the Muslim Brotherhood, Turkey's AKP, the Iranian Khomeinists, or Pakistan's Jamaat e-Islami?" — Dr. M. Zuhdi Jasser, in testimony before the US House Oversight and Government Reform Subcommittee on National Security, July 11, 2018.
"Develop foreign policy mechanisms to disincentivize Qatari and Turkish Government facilitation of the Brotherhood and ultimately think about suspending Turkey from NATO." — Dr. M. Zuhdi Jasser, in testimony before the US House Oversight and Government Reform Subcommittee on National Security, July 11, 2018.
"And please stop engaging Muslim Brotherhood legacy groups in government, media, and NGOs, and recognize their Islamist terrorist sympathies." — Dr. M. Zuhdi Jasser, in testimony before the US House Oversight and Government Reform Subcommittee on National Security, July 11, 2018.
Such a designation would also make it far more difficult for the countries that support the Muslim Brotherhood, especially Turkey and Qatar, to keep on doing so. The Muslim Brotherhood has already been declared a terrorist organization by the governments of Austria, Russia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
Over the weekend, Israel and the U.S. announced that they had agreed upon a framework whereby the cease-fire would be extended for 50 days, and in exchange Hamas would release the remaining hostages, both living and dead, in two separate batches. Hamas so far appears to be rejecting the proposal. Ron Ben-Yishai explains the strategic logic at play, and why Gaza’s terrorist rulers may feel themselves under a new kind of pressure:
The main threat is the credible risk of an Israeli military operation to reoccupy Gaza. Five IDF divisions are already positioned around the Strip, ready for rapid deployment. . . . . Second, internal pressure within Gaza is mounting as civilians demand relief. In an effort to intensify this leverage, Israel announced this morning that it was halting humanitarian aid to Gaza so long as Hamas continues to reject the [new cease-fire] plan.
The third and strongest pressure point is U.S. support. President Donald Trump has shown no signs of losing interest in resolving the crisis.
Hamas, for now, is playing tough, banking on the assumption that Israel would avoid resuming large-scale military operations for fear of endangering the hostages. But recent statements from Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz suggest that if Hamas refuses the deal, Israel may be willing to take that risk.
