It's a Mistake to Go Back to the JCPOA
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu interviewed by Michael Doran, Dec. 3, 2020 (Hudson Institute)
Netanyahu: Jews have been fighting for our place under the sun for almost four millennia. And we haven't made this extraordinary odyssey for it to end by a whim of ayatollahs who are ideologically committed to destroy us. That's not something that an Israeli leadership should sit by and allow to happen.
Some Arab leaders have come to realize, especially in the last decade, that Israel, far from being their enemy, was their indispensable ally in securing stability, peace and prosperity in the Middle East. Some of them say so fairly openly, most of them say so quietly.
They're concerned with Islamic radicalism of a Shiite or a Sunni variety. They're concerned with developing their economies for the betterment of their peoples. They're concerned with countering Iran's aggression and terrorism, which is spread all over the area. And they see Israel as the power in the area that is willing to stand up, and often speak up, for something that they all agree with.
Far from blocking Iran's path to the bomb, the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) paved its way with gold, literally, with an enormous amount of money that was put into Iran's coffers. They promptly used it to fund an unbelievable campaign of conquest. Right after the JCPOA, you see them expanding into Iraq, into Yemen, into Iraq, seeking to establish military bases in Syria, supporting Hizbullah with greater funds, supporting the Islamic Jihad and Hamas.
If the idea was this tiger will be tamed, in fact, what the JCPOA did was to open the gates of the cage and let the tiger loose to a campaign of plunder and conquest that was threatening to overrun the Middle East in horrible ways.
Iran with nuclear weapons is a very dangerous thing for the United States. It's developing ICBMs which it wants to tip with a nuclear payload (because you don't use ICBMs for anything else) to reach America. You say that's not a real problem? Well, take North Korea, a smaller country that has a fraction of Iran's GDP. You understand what the arming of North Korea with ICBMs and nuclear weapons means to the United States. Iran is many times more dangerous than North Korea because it has a radical ideology. It chants death to America, death to Israel. They mean it.
We have peace breaking out now. And I think the United States has a vested interest to expand that peace, to support those countries that seek to broaden the circle of peace, and to constrain or roll back Iran and its proxies that seek to bring us back to a violent medievalism. The fact that we're willing to stand up and protect ourselves, but thereby also protect the neighborhood, our allies in peace, I think is a vital interest of the United States.
Dore Gold in Bahrain: "Abraham Accords a Whole New Paradigm for Diplomats"
- Amb. Dore Gold interviewed by Omar ShariffPlagued by intelligence failures, Iranian security apparatuses aim to clean house
At the 2020 Manama Dialogue in Bahrain, sponsored by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Israeli diplomat Dore Gold, President of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, said, "The Abraham Accords represented a whole new paradigm for diplomats. It gave the Arab states the freedom to make peace with Israel, while not denying the Palestinians the right to join the process when they are ready. This new structure will make peace more likely."
"Senior leadership in the [Iranian] Revolutionary Guards and even more importantly the senior religious leadership in Qom have spoken about the need 'to wipe Israel off the map.' You cannot wipe a country off the map without physically destroying its population. Among polite company we call that genocide." (Gulf News-Dubai)
See also Questions for Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal - Amb. Dore Gold Amb. Dore Gold asked Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal a number of questions at the 2020 IISS Manama Dialogue in Bahrain on Sunday:
"Do we want to be caught up in the accusations of the past, many of which are false, or do we want to present the young generation in the Middle East with a positive vision and really give leadership for a better future?...Do you, Prince Turki al-Faisal, think we have something to learn from each other...with respect to the challenge Israel has faced from the north, from Hizbullah, since the early 1980s, and the challenge you face from the south, from the Houthi militants?"
Hossein Shariatmadari, Kayhan's editor-in-chief and Khamenei's representative, directed an editorial (Nov. 28) at Iran's leaders: "How can the Zionist regime, which is on the brink of decay today and surrounded by resistance forces on all sides, so easily murder our nuclear scientists?!"
He added, "Today, all the attention of the Iranian people and the Iranian regime must be focused on two targets: the first, the harsh retaliation against the criminal Zionists that will make them regret, and the second is identifying internal elements and possible infiltrators of the enemy into Iran's intelligence security systems."
Shariatmadari also called for "attacking the important port city of Haifa, destroying the strategic facilities, and causing heavy human casualties" to reach a "real deterrent point." Dr. Sadollah Zarei, an Iranian scholar and political analyst, wrote in Kayhan that Iran's reaction to suspected Israeli airstrikes that killed IRGC forces in Syria wasn't enough to deter Israel, while "striking Haifa … will definitely lead to deterrence because the United States and Israel are not ready to participate in a war and a military confrontation."
In Iran, the dilemma is growing with regard to how and where to respond to Fakhrizadeh's assassination, and how far to stretch the regime's restraint. So far, Iran has not responded as it is "required" to by the threats it issued following the deaths of Hezbollah international operations chief Imad Mughniyeh, Soleimani, operatives associated with Hezbollah's precision missile program, IRGC personnel in Syria, important figures among the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, and others.
It is possible that Iran will continue its policy of restraint and choose to strike "easier" targets that are allied to the United States and Israel, such as the oil facilities and strategic infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. Such an attack took place on Sept. 19, 2019, with precision cruise missiles hitting the Saudi oil processing facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais.
In this regard, on Nov. 23, the Iranian Mehr news agency broadcast a video of an Aramco oil distribution site in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, being hit by Quds-2 missiles launched by the Houthis in Yemen. Iran could be waiting for the new US administration, which might limit Israel's aggressive activities while negotiations are in the offing and test Israel-American relations, which reached new heights during Trump's presidency.
With the long-range missile attacks on Abqaiq and Khurais and periodic Houthi missile launches against strategic targets in Saudi Arabia, Iran demonstrated that it has the operational know-how to launch surprise attacks on strategic sites, including in Israel, with stealthy, precision cruise missiles.
One way or another, Iran must conduct a thorough house-cleaning in response to the repeated infiltrations and attacks on its security and intelligence establishments. These recurring intelligence operations have targeted Iran's scientists, nuclear infrastructure (such as the explosion in the Natanz enrichment facility in July 2020) and sometimes its electricity and oil facilities. As it has in the past, the regime will publicize over the next few weeks and in the run-up to presidential elections the arrests of people ostensibly involved in the attacks and espionage, so that it may salvage some of its honor among the Iranian people, who are exposed to details of the calamities via social media, international reports and the joyful Iranian opposition.