Elder Of Ziyon - Israel News

Monday, January 23, 2012

The UN's 1950 interpretation of the "right to return"

Does UN General Assembly resolution 194 give Palestinian Arabs the right to return to Israel?

Not according to a document written in 1950 by the United Nations Conciliation Commission for Palestine, analyzing paragraph 11 of the resolution that is often quoted today.

The document exhaustively analyzes every phrase in that paragraph, which states:

Resolves that the refugees wishing to return to their homes and live at peace with their neighbours should be permitted to do so at the earliest practicable date, and that compensation should be paid for the property of those choosing not to return and for loss of or damage to property which, under principles of international law or in equity, should be made good by the Governments or authorities responsible;

Instructs the Conciliation Commission to facilitate the repatriation, resettlement and economic and social rehabilitation of the refugees and the payment of compensation, and to maintain close relations with the Director of the United Nations Relief for Palestine Refugees and, through him, with the appropriate organs and agencies of the United Nations;

One specific part of this 1950 UN document A/AC.25/W/45 is notable:

3. What is the meaning of the term "to their homes"?

There is no doubt that in using this term the General Assembly meant the home of each refugee, i.e. his house or lodging and not his homeland. This is indicated by the fact that two amendments using the term "the areas from which they have come" were rejected. Furthermore by implication it would appear that if the refugees not returning are to be compensated for their property, those returning would reoccupy their homes and be compensated only for losses and damages.

The phrase "to their homes" does not mean "to their homeland."

Which means that if their houses no longer exist, there is no right to return to the area the homes used to be located in.

How many of the original homes of Arabs who fled in 1948 still exist? I'm sure there are some in Jerusalem and Jaffa, but probably not too many altogether. The majority of 1948 refugees were poor and rural, and those homes have by and large been gone for many decades now.

At any rate, the resolution that is used so often to justify the "right" of millions of Palestinian Arabs to flood Israel is very clear in calling for only the specific refugees (obviously not their descendants, but only "all persons, Arabs, Jews and others who have been displaced from their homes in Arab Palestine") to return only to their specific houses. Not land, not area, not village - but their former houses.

And if the houses no longer exist, then their only remaining claim is monetary compensation.

(Ironically, at the time Israel interpreted the resolution to mean "homeland" giving Israel the rights to relocate Arabs to other areas; the Arabs interpreted it the way the UNCCP interpreted the phrase.)

There's lots more in that document that is enlightening, and I plan to go into more detail in the future.

EU agrees on oil embargo of Iran

From Al Arabiya:

European Union nations agreed Monday to slap an oil embargo against Iran’s oil exports in a bid to halt funding of the country's disputed nuclear program, EU diplomats said.

“There is a political agreement on an oil embargo,” said a diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity after early morning talks between ambassadors of the 27 EU nations. The deal is to be formally approved by EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels.

Their agreement was the final step before EU foreign ministers can give their formal approval to the measure. The EU’s 27 foreign ministers meet in Brussels on Monday.

“(EU ambassadors) have agreed on Iran sanctions,” the senior EU diplomat said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Under the deal, EU governments will have to stop signing new contracts with Tehran from the moment the ban comes into place -- probably as soon as this week -- but will be able to fulfill existing contracts until July 1.

This is huge news.

And this part is heartening as well:

Meanwhile, the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln passed through the Strait of Hormuz and is now in the Gulf, the Pentagon said, after Tehran threatened to close the strategic shipping route, while the European Union readied to slap an embargo on Iran’s oil exports Monday.

“USS Abraham Lincoln ... completed a regular and routine transit of the Strait of Hormuz... to conduct maritime security operations as scheduled,” Pentagon spokesman Navy Captain John Kirby said in an email to AFP.

“The transit was completed as previously scheduled and without incident.”

The carrier, which can have up to 80 planes and helicopters on board, was escorted by the guided-missile cruiser USS Cape St George and two destroyers.

Earlier, Britain’s Ministry of Defense said a British Royal Navy frigate and a French vessel had joined the carrier group to sail through the waterway.

While allied ships often participate in U.S. naval exercises and sometimes are part of joint naval flotillas, the presence of British and French ships seemed to be a message to Tehran about the West’s resolve to keep the route open.

“HMS Argyll and a French vessel joined a U.S. carrier group transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, to underline the unwavering international commitment to maintaining rights of passage under international law,” said a spokesman from Britain’s MoD.

Hamas' economic might keeps it in power

I had missed this important article published by Ehud Yaari and Eyal Ofer earlier this month:

Since Israel's August 2005 withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, Hamas has evolved from a relatively small movement into a well-funded conglomerate. Instead of being crippled by sanctions and siege, the organization has found ways to surmount early difficulties -- such as frequent payroll delays -- and establish an effective system of governance, ever tightening its grip over its fiefdom. As a result, Hamas has been able to empower loyalists while leaving the main burden of responsibility for Gaza's 1.6 million residents to others. Unfortunately, both the Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority (PA) and international donors have tolerated this situation, effectively contributing, if indirectly, to Hamas coffers.

The IMF estimated Gaza's 2009 gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 12 percent, an impressive number. According to a September 2010 IMF report, the total Gazan and West Bank GDP was $7 billion, while the gap in per capita income between the two areas was 48 percent; this data, combined with other relevant statistics, implies that Gaza's per capita GDP was around $1,400, much of which derives from payments by the PA. Transfers and remittances added 50 percent more income, implying that average total per capita income was, in fact, $2,100. Yet much of this income does not represent productive economic activities, and unemployment remains high -- probably around a third of the workforce.

One must also take into account the considerable trade conducted via the more than 800 tunnels into Egypt. Based on fragmentary evidence, this trade likely peaked at around $600-850 million per year. ...

Where does all this cash come from? ..The cash inflow seems to come primarily through banks. According to Palestinian banking officials, an average of $2 billion per year has been transferred into Gaza via the Palestinian banking system since Hamas's June 2007 military takeover. The PA alone wires an estimated $1.2 billion per year into Gaza banks, much of it as pensions and salaries for the 77,000 employees kept on the payroll even though they are not working. In fact, this estimate may be conservative; according to PA prime minister Salam Fayad, 54 percent of the PA's $3.17 billion 2010 budget went to Gaza. Most of that figure appears to be salaries, although it also covers what the PA pays directly for electricity, fuel, and water provided to Gaza by Israeli firms.

In addition, the UN Relief and Works Agency annually transfers about $200 million in cash to Gaza, along with $250 million per year worth of goods, grains, and fuel. Cash is also transferred into Gaza by the 160 nongovernmental organizations operating there, by international organizations such as the World Bank, and by foreign government aid organizations, although much of what they spend arrives in the form of goods shipped via Israel.

Hamas likely raises as much as $250 million annually via taxes. ... Hamas also regulates many types of businesses -- from street vendors to Gaza's twenty money-changing companies -- requiring them to pay license fees. In addition, taxes are collected on "luxury" goods coming from Israel, and even on motorcycles and carts.

Hamas also takes a hefty cut from the Egyptian tunnel trade, imposing high "customs" duties and a daily fee on local tunnel contractors.

...Hamas is also exploiting its control over various Gaza resources, such as leasing government-owned heavy machinery to private contractors for a daily fee. This is one of many ways the group has been able to indirectly benefit from the international reconstruction funds flowing into Gaza.

In 2005, Hamas was a modestly sized organization of 4,000-7,000 military personnel, with a small charity and education network and a skeletal party bureaucracy. From 2006 to 2010, however, the funds at the group's disposal reportedly grew from $40 million to $540 million. At the same time, Hamas has gained full control over all government ministries and municipal councils in Gaza, as well as many civilian agencies. It also holds a monopoly of power over every security and intelligence service in the territory, such as the 10,000-strong "blue" police. In total, Hamas pays salaries to at least 35,000 employees, among them many of the 20,000-plus armed personnel. Given this apparent payroll and an estimated average monthly salary of NIS 1,500 ($425), the group may be spending -- according to Prime Minister Ismail Haniyah -- as much as $300 million per year on salaries, a sum greater than the entire PA payroll. Hamas also claims that it allocates $30 million annually to its activities in the West Bank, without disclosing the methods by which funds arrive there.

...In addition to its own direct spending, Hamas has been able to tap into financial resources transferred by the PA and aid agencies, ensuring payments to supporters who have replaced Fatah loyalists in government jobs. Lists used by donors to screen for terrorists include very few Hamas operatives; even if this problem were addressed, the screening of PA employees is largely done by Hamas sympathizers. In total, thousands of Hamas members, including many military personnel with fake civilian positions, are paid by outside donors.

The movement has also recently turned to purchasing all sorts of businesses and initiating new ventures, such as the Islamic Bank, the al-Multazim insurance firm, housing projects, hotels, a shopping mall, resorts, agricultural farms, and a fish hatchery. In fact, Hamas's economic mini-empire is fast becoming the main player in Gaza's private sector. The group often forces businesses to close down in order to eliminate competition. It also coerces owners into selling items for cheap or "contributing" to Hamas either in cash or in kind (e.g., building materials). Frequently, new Hamas businesses are registered under the names of straw owners or individuals from Hamas cadres. The group has also taken over all the land belonging to the former Israeli settlement of Gush Katif, along with parts of the Gaza beachfront.

Soon after its 2006 electoral victory in Gaza, Hamas faced great financial difficulties, leading the group to smuggle millions of dollars in cash through Egypt. Today, however, Hamas has managed to develop local sources of steadily growing income, mainly by exploiting the huge aid sums transferred by the PA and international donors to sustain the general population. No effective mechanism is in place to prevent the group from taking advantage of the constant cash flow into Gaza; as a result, a significant part of the money intended to help alleviate the hardship of the region's inhabitants has gone to waste. More rigorous measures are needed to restrict Hamas's ability to siphon off such funding for its own purposes.

Economic sanctions against Hamas have failed, badly.

And this is a major reason why there will never be real unity between Hamas and Fatah - Hamas has too much too lose.

(h/t Yoel)

A nice documentary on Jerusalem paramedics - on Al Jazeera!

Between 1948 and 1967 a border separated Arabs living in East Jerusalem from Jews living in the rest of the city.

Today, much of the city's Arab population remains in the east, while the majority of its Jewish population lives in the west.

Although they are free to do so, few residents move between the city's Arab and Jewish areas. In the minds of most, the border that separated Jews and Arabs 40 years ago still exists today.

Witness follows Jewish and Arab volunteer paramedics who choose to cross these boundaries.

Hezi, a Hassidic Jew, has been working for United Hatzalah, an emergency service run by orthodox Jews in Jerusalem, for more than 15 years. In 2010, the organisation started employing Arab paramedics and Fadi joined to improve first aid services in Jerusalem's Arab neighbourhoods.

In Jerusalem SOS, we follow Fadi and Hezi as they traverse Jerusalem, providing first aid at all hours to the city's residents.

Credit where credit is due, it is a very good film.

(h/t SwissYankee)

Here's some "quake-washing"

From the IDF:

Lt. Col. Dr. Ofir Cohen-Marom receives a delegation from Japan that came to Israel to thank the IDF for their efforts in helping the residents of Minamisanriku, Japan after it was devastated by a heavy earthquake in April 2011.

There are real people out there whose blood boils when they see photos and stories like this. They would prefer that Israel never does anything admirable, because to them, demonization of the Jewish state is their entire raison d'etre, and this stuff makes it harder. for them to do their job.

In other words, there really are people out there who would prefer that a few more Japanese would die than to have Israel save them.

They wouldn't admit it, of course, but it is a fair bet that anyone who ever uses the term "XXXwashing" in a derogatory way towards Israel is, deep down, one of these who would prefer to see the victims of disasters die than have to deal with Israel saving their lives.

Egypt getting upset at Fatah/Hamas fake conciliation

Palestine Today quotes Al Hayat as saying that Egypt is upset at the lack of progress in reconciliation talks between Fatah and Hamas.

Egyptian sources said that Cairo decided to defer sending a security delegation to both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank to follow up the implementation of the reconciliation agreement because of the lack of commitment by both Fatah and Hamas.

Egypt planned to send Egypt a high-level security delegation to both the West Bank and Gaza in the second half of January, but postponed it due to the failure of the two movements' commitment to reconciliation, saying they continue violating the agreement they signed in Cairo.

They pointed out the continuing arrests of Hamas members in the West Bank, as well a the of mutual accusations between the leaders of the two movements.

Unity! Hamas still harassing Fatah members

Palestine Press Agency reports that a leader of Fatah in the Gaza Strip, Abdullah Abu Samhadana, claims that Hamas continues to disrupt reconciliation.

In a radio interview, Abu Samhadana said Sunday that Hamas still calls for arrest of Fatah members in the Gaza Strip and prevents Fatah members from traveling to or from Gaza.

He pointed out that Ismail Haniyeh has not kept his promises, and that the headquarters of Fatah, the Central Election Commission and the PLO are still closed.

Meet the new Mufti, same as the old Mufti (updated)

From Israel HaYom:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday ordered an investigation into the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem, Muhammad Ahmad Hussein, who called for the killing of Jews in a televised tirade last week.

The prime minister, who has asked Attorney-General Yehuda Weinstein to oversee the investigation, said at the weekly Cabinet meeting that the remarks made by the grand mufti, a representative of the Palestinian Authority, should be condemned by every nation in the world.

Public Diplomacy and Diaspora Affairs Minister Yuli Edelstein said that the fact that the mufti's remarks had been broadcast on Palestinian Authority television and posted on the official website of the Palestinian Authority was disturbing. "If that is not anti-Semitism, I don't know what is," he said.

Just before the Cabinet meeting, National Infrastructure Minister Uzi Landau (Yisrael Beitenu) said the mufti should stand trial and be thrown in jail. He described the Muslim leader as an "extremist imam who gets his inspiration from Nazi Germany."

Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman has instructed Israel's ambassadors around the world to condemn the anti-Semitic tirade. Lieberman encouraged the ambassadors to publicly denounce the mufti's remarks, and to approach the governments of their host countries on the issue.

For his part, the mufti told Israel Radio earlier Sunday that he had not in fact encouraged the murder of Jews, but rather had quoted Muslim holy text that makes such a call.

Last week, Palestinian Media Watch reported that the mufti had said that the murder of Jews was justified by Islamic text. The group said Hussein told television audiences that according to the Hadith, the record of the words and actions of the Prophet Muhammad, Islamic Resurrection would not come until Muslims fought the Jews.

Palestinian Media Watch provided video footage of Hussein's speech in which the mufti says: “Forty-seven years ago the revolution started. Which revolution? The modern revolution of the Palestinian people’s history. In fact, Palestine in its entirety is a revolution, since [Caliph] Umar came [to conquer Jerusalem in 637 C.E.], and continuing today, and until the End of Days. The reliable Hadith, in the two reliable collections, Bukhari and Muslim, says: 'The Hour [of Resurrection] will not come until you fight the Jews. The Jew will hide behind stones or trees. Then the stones or trees will call: ‘O Muslim, servant of Allah, there is a Jew behind me, come and kill him.’ Except the Gharqad tree [which will keep silent].' Therefore it is no wonder that you see Gharqad [trees] surrounding the [Israeli] settlements and colonies."

In 2006, Hussein said suicide bombings were a "legitimate weapon" in the Palestinian struggle for independence.

We noted the speech last week, along with the moderator of that same event calling Jews the "descendants of apes and pigs."

Given that the more famous Grand Mufti of Jerusalem was an anti-semite, it looks like things don't change too much.

(Who appointed Hussein as Mufti? During the British Mandate, the position was appointed by the British themselves, and it is not a hereditary position - so who chose this clown to be the Mufti of Jerusalem? )

UPDATE: Challah Hu Akbar found that it was none other than Mahmoud Abbas who appointed the Mufti. Imagine that.

Stories from the "open air prison" of Gaza

In the latest report from COGAT, detailing the imports and exports between Gaza and Israel, we learn an interesting detail:

Heavy-duty diesel for the power plant is delivered directly from Egypt according to the Palestinians' decision; therefore, no diesel is transferred from Israel.

For years Palestinian Arabs and their anti-Israel cohorts have blamed Israel for choking off Gaza's power plant. Yet now Hamas is saying it doesn't need any diesel fuel from Israel at all!

Does that sound like a besieged area?

Other interesting stories about that "open-air prison" known as Gaza that you won't see in the news:

During that same week, Gaza exported 56 tons of agricultural goods (carnations, cherry tomatoes and strawberries.)

For the first time, furniture has been exported from Gaza, with a truck full of furniture going to Jordan.

Last month, 99.5% of the people trying to leave Gaza for medical care in Israel or PA territories received permits. That number has been steadily increasing over the last couple of years.

Also, last week, the Arab League sent 45 tons of food to Gaza through Rafah.

Sounds like a lot, right?

Here are the amounts sent via Israel to Gaza during the second week of January:

Food Products	Trucks	Tons*
Wheat	6	120
Cooking Oil	7	140
Rice	2	40
Produce (Fruits and Vegetables)	57	1140
Meat, Chicken and Fish Products	44	880
Salt	8	160
Dairy Products	25	500
Flour	23	460
Sugar	8	160
Mixed\ Additional Food Products	92	1840
Total food, tons		5440

Most of the aid coming through Israel's crossings originate in the West, showing that while Arabs trumpet every time they give any aid to Gaza, it is a token amount compared to what comes from the West.

And, by the way, Juan Cole's site still says that exports from Gaza are "zero."

*I based this on 20 tons/truck. The total shipments given in the COGAT statistics indicate 25 tons of aid per truck, so this is a conservative estimate.

Idiotic Atlanta Jew hands a gift to anti-semites and Israel-haters

From Al Arabiya, although it is being reported all over the world:

Owner and publisher of The Atlanta Jewish Times has offered his apology twice for suggesting that the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should order Mossad agents to assassinate U.S. President Barack Obama in an attempt to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Andrew Adler wrote an op-ed piece on January 13 in which he presented Israel with three options: one, attack Hezbollah and Hamas, two, order the destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities at all costs, and third, to assassinate President Obama.

“Give the go-ahead for U.S.-based Mossad agents to take out a president deemed unfriendly to Israel in order for the current vice president to take his place, and forcefully dictate that the United States’ policy includes its helping the Jewish state obliterate its enemies,” Adler wrote.

The op-ed is no longer available online but was posted by gawker.com.

“Yes, you read ‘three’ correctly. Order a hit on a president in order to preserve Israel’s existence. Think about it. If I have thought of this Tom Clancy-type scenario, don’t you think that this almost unfathomable idea has been discussed in Israel’s most inner circles?” he writes.

Israel-haters seized upon this. Dissident Voice headlines their coverage with "Have Israel’s “Inner Circles” Discussed Assassinating President Obama?" (Answer: "Who knows?" But now that the headline is out there, the assumption is "Probably.")

A site called Judeofascism.com notes that Mondoweiss commenters are using this as evidence that Israel probably assassinated JFK in order to get a friendlier vice president.

To his credit,972 Magazine's Yossi Gurvitz admits "I am certain that had anyone suggested such a covert operation to Netanyahu, that person would be fired on the spot. And that even had Netanyahu entertained such an idea, the leadership of Mossad would submit their resignation rather than going along with the plan. What Adler wrote was a fantasy, unrelated to Israeli reality."

But he goes on to say "However, Adler did prove a point, albeit not one he intended: He showed us that there are, in fact, American Jews who are 'Israel-firsters', that is, people who put the interests of Israel ahead of their own country. In Adler’s case, to the point of supporting the assassination of his own duly-elected president – which skirts very closely to treason."

No, the point he proved is that there are American Jews who are morons. (And not to defend him in the least, but Adler was putting forth the idea that Israel, in a no-win situation, might consider a hit on Obama as one of three stated options, not necessarily advocating it himself. Even the Israeli coverage of the story is getting it wrong, showing that Jerusalem Post journalists are not necessarily much smarter than Adler himself.)

But it doesn't matter how many American Jewish organizations condemn him in the strongest terms. It doesn't matter that Adler's paper has a minuscule readership (roughly 8% of what this blog gets every week.) Adler has just "proven" the dual-loyalty canard that is so freely promulgated by the dedicated Israel-haters and their anti-semitic cousins towards American Jews.

With friends like Adler, Israel doesn't need enemies.

Qatar to participate in Herzliya Conference on the Arab Spring

Palestine Press Agency and a number of other Arab publications are concerned that Qatar intends to participate in a Tel Aviv conference entitled "In the eye of storm ... Israel and the Middle East," about the challenges facing Israel regionally.

The Qatar representative, Salman Shaikh, will present a paper on the Arab revolutions and the rise of political Islam in the region, calls "Arab Spring or Islamist Winter? The Rise of Political Islam." He will also participate in a strategy roundtable.

Shaikh is the director of the Brookings Institute in Doha.

He is indeed listed in the preliminary program for the Herzliya Conference scheduled from January 30-February 2.

Other participants come from Jordan and Egypt, as well as many other well-known experts and analysts from Israel and worldwide.

Saeb Erekat is also speaking. I have not yet seen any complaints about that, though.

PA blames Israel for stupid UAE rumor about Abbas

Ma'an Arabic reports that the PA strongly denied rumors that Mahmoud Abbas will leave Ramallah because of fear that he will be treated like Arafat as a result of his intransigence in negotiations. Meaning that ISrael will imprison him in his equivalent of the Muqata and then they'll poison him, as comspiracy-minded Arabs like to believe.

The Ma'an report says that the PA claims that this rumor was planted by Israel, naturally.

Only one problem: The rumor came out of the UAE. I reported a version of it on Monday and another version came out of a UAE newspaper, al-Khaleej, over the weekend. It's just another silly Arab rumor that gets tossed around, especially in Gulf-area newspapers who love to publish "inside" stories from far away to an audience that is raised on conspiracy theories.

What makes this especially funny is that the rumor is believed by some Palestine-Firsters. No rumor about Israel can be too outrageous to be wholeheartedly believed by activist "journalists" who dedicate their careers to inciting against Israel.

Overnight open thread

Go for it!

Iran blinks in face of US warships

From the NYT:

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said Saturday that it considered the likely return of American warships to the Persian Gulf part of routine activity, backing away from previous warnings to Washington not to re-enter the area.

The statement may be seen as an effort to reduce tensions after Washington said it would respond if Iran made good on a threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, the vital shipping lane for oil exports from the gulf.

“U.S. warships and military forces have been in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East region for many years, and their decision in relation to the dispatch of a new warship is not a new issue, and it should be interpreted as part of their permanent presence,” a Revolutionary Guards deputy commander, Hossein Salami, told the official IRNA news agency.

On Jan. 3, after President Obama signed new sanctions aimed at stopping Iran’s oil exports, the Iranian government ordered the [USS] Stennis not to return — an order interpreted by some analysts in Iran and Washington as a blanket threat to any United States carrier.

“I recommend and emphasize to the American carrier not to return to the Persian Gulf,” Iran’s army chief, Maj. Gen. Ataollah Salehi, said at the time. “We are not in the habit of warning more than once.”

Washington says it will return, and Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta said any move to block the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a third of the world’s sea-borne traded oil passes, would be seen as a “red line,” requiring a response.

Apparently, Iranian machismo evaporates when there is a credible response.

Final results of Egypt elections: MB 47%, Salafi 24% of seats

From AFP:

Egypt’s Islamists led by the once-banned Muslim Brotherhood clinched nearly half of seats in parliament in historic polls after the ouster of strongman Hosni Mubarak, official results showed on Saturday.

The Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) won 235 seats in the new People’s Assembly, or 47.18 percent, electoral committee head Abdel Moez Ibrahim told a news conference, giving the final results from marathon polls.

The FJP secured 127 seats on party lists and its candidates won another 108 in first-past-the-post constituency votes.

The ultra-conservative Salafist Al-Nur party came second with 121 seats or 24.29 percent, and the liberal Wafd Party was third with nearly nine percent.

The liberal Egyptian Bloc -- which includes the Free Egyptians party of telecoms magnate Naguib Sawiris who is facing trial on allegations of insulting Islam -- came fourth with around seven percent.

It was only last April that the leading experts and polls were predicting a much different outcome:

The poll, conducted by the Pew Research Center and based on face-to-face interviews with 1,000 Egyptians, is the first credible survey since the revolution lifted many restrictions on free expression. It is also the first to directly address Western debate over whether the revolution might drift toward Islamic radicalism.

The poll found about 30 percent of Egyptians have a favorable view of Islamic fundamentalism and about the same number sympathize with its opponents. About a quarter have mixed views.

That range was exemplified by attitudes toward the Muslim Brotherhood, the previously outlawed Islamist group.

Many in the West have assumed that as the best-organized nongovernmental organization in Egyptian society, the Muslim Brotherhood might quickly dominate Egyptian politics — a view long espoused by the Mubarak government. The poll shows the Muslim Brotherhood is indeed regarded favorably by about three in four Egyptians, receiving very favorable ratings from 37 percent of respondents and somewhat favorable ratings from an additional 38 percent.

But that put the group roughly at a par with the April 6 Movement, a new and relatively secular and progressive youth group that played a leading role in organizing the revolution. Seven in 10 viewed that group favorably, with 38 percent viewing it very favorably and 32 percent viewing it somewhat favorably. The poll’s margin of samplinfg error is plus or minus four percentage points.

Only 17 percent of respondents said they would like to see the Muslim Brotherhood lead the next government. Al Ghad, a liberal party led by Ayman Nour, a formerly jailed presidential candidate, was favored to lead the new government by roughly the same number. And one in five supported the New Wafd Party, a secular liberal party that was recognized under Mr. Mubarak.

Nearly two-thirds of Egyptians said civil law should strictly follow the Koran, but then the existing Constitution of Egypt’s largely secular state said that it is already based on the Koran.

Sobhi Saleh, a prominent member of the Muslim Brotherhood and a former parliamentary candidate, dismissed the poll’s findings as wildly overstating the support for other parties. Only the Brotherhood has a broad organization and a well-known platform, he argued, predicting success at the polls. “These findings are wrong, and it’s only a matter of two months until you see that,” he said.

And now the major liberal parties combined to receive only 16% of the seats in Parliament.

The discrepancy is probably due both to bad polling methods (did Pew ask the right questions to Egypt's rural voters?) and to the importance of organization in winning elections. Initial enthusiasm is no substitute for grassroots organization and hard work to get out the vote.

But then again, I already said that - last February, in response to an overly enthusiastic column by Nicholas Kristof:

Kristof is making a major mistake. He is confusing bravery for political maturity.

No one doubts the protesters' bravery. No one doubts their integrity, or their desire for change, or even their desire for democracy.

But there are serious doubts at their ability to translate the raw desire for freedom into a functional, liberal, democratic government.

It is hard work to create the institutions necessary. More importantly, it takes time - and time is not on the side of the protesters.

It is now fashionable to pooh-pooh the dangers of the Muslim Brotherhood in Kristof's liberal circles, but no one can doubt that the Islamists are better organized and much more politically mature than the Facebookers of Tahrir Square. It takes time to set up an organization, to define a clear agenda, to build a fundraising mechanism, to attract volunteers, to build a means to communicate with all the people - including in rural areas, and to do all the myriad details from physical buildings to a phone system to a mailing list.

True freedom cannot flourish until Egyptians have been exposed to a wide range of ideas on a level playing field. The existing Islamist groups are running circles around the "Egyptian youth" we hear so much about. Kristof is so caught up in the emotions of the moment that he cannot think outside Tahrir Square, to the 99% of the country that is not as emotionally invested in who their leaders would be. To them, the nice people with beards who build a free Islamic school for their kids are the only game in town.

Enthusiasm does not ensure effective state building and true freedoms. Kristof, instead of spouting straw-man arguments, should be advocating ways for his jeans-wearing heroes to channel their sparks of enthusiasm and bravery into the hard, thankless and often boring work necessary to build a new Egypt from scratch.

How many times will NYT columnists keep making the same mistakes over and over again?

For as long as their adoring readers choose to forget those mistakes.