Wednesday, March 03, 2021
Wednesday, March 03, 2021
Elder of Ziyon
Wednesday, March 03, 2021
Elder of Ziyon
Austrian chancellor Sebastian Kurz and Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen are travelling to Jerusalem this week to discuss a new joint-approach with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, officials from Vienna and Copenhagen told the Financial Times.An Austrian chancellery official familiar with the plans said that at the core of discussions were plans to construct in-country production facilities for mRNA vaccines. The three countries are in talks with Pfizer and Moderna about the factories.Austria has already identified an intended site for manufacture, the official added, indicating the extent to which the scheme is already well-advanced.The three will also discuss pooling vaccine stockpiles, although the sharing of surplus vaccine supplies is likely to be a sensitive topic. Sharing small shipments of excess supplies of vaccine with allies has already caused some political turbulence in Israel. The EU, in common with countries such as the UK and US, has measures in place that allow it to curb vaccine exports.
Diplomat Manuel Hassassian (who falsely calls himself the "ambassador" to Denmark) wrote an angry article condemning the Danish Prime Minister ahead of her visit:
The Prime Minister is willing to ignore the conditions of apartheid and the continuing discrimination practiced against the Palestinians who are under the oppression of the Israeli occupation before everyone else's eyes, as clear as the sun.This matter is completely unacceptable, and in the event that Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen ends up purchasing the so-called surplus vaccine doses from Israel, then Denmark de facto acknowledges that it relinquishes Israel’s responsibility towards the Palestinians as the occupying power, and by that it is rewarding the Israeli apartheid policies with this approach.We did not forget, in September 2020, the statement of Prime Minister Mitt Frederiksen after presiding over the Danish government that the Danish Foreign Ministry will base its future policies on social democracy; And that it will be based on the concepts of values such as rights and duties, equality and freedom, and that it will bind societies to that. However, we still have to fully understand what the Danish foreign policy, based on social democratic values, means. After her recent statement regarding visiting Israel, this policy should not be a reward for violators.Mrs. Mette Frederiksen's failure to criticize the public absurdity of the Israeli occupation state by not providing treatment and vaccines to the Palestinians who are under its occupation is considered unjustified ignorance by her of what international law imposes on the occupying power.Moreover, Mette Frederiksen did not include a visit to the Palestinian Authority or a meeting with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on her agenda, as it should be noted that many Danish NGOs provide assistance to the Palestinians in the fields of human rights and infrastructure development. This step is a contradiction to the Danish foreign policy toward Palestine.
Wednesday, March 03, 2021
Elder of Ziyon
Abraham Accords, Arab Peace Initiative, intransigence, Palestinians, Thomas Friedman
[S]omething big seems to be stirring. Unlike the peace breakthroughs between Israel and Egypt, Israel and Lebanon’s Christians and Israel and Jordan, which were driven from the top and largely confined there, the openings between Israel and the Gulf States — while initiated from the top to build an alliance against Iran — are now being driven even more from the bottom, by tourists, students and businesses....If the Abraham Accords do thrive and broaden to include normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, we are talking about one of the most significant realignments in modern Middle East history, which for many decades was largely shaped by Great Power interventions and Arab-Israeli dynamics. Not anymore.Today, “there are three powerful non-Arab actors in the region — Iran, Turkey and Israel — and they have each constructed their own regional axis,” argues Itamar Rabinovich, the Israeli Middle East historian, who just co-wrote “Syrian Requiem,” a smart history of the Syrian civil war. Those three axes, Rabinovich explains, are Turkey with Qatar and their proxy Hamas; Iran with Syria and Iran’s proxies running Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen; and Israel with the U.A.E., Bahrain and tacitly Saudi Arabia and Oman.It’s the interactions of these three axes, says Rabinovich, that are really driving Middle East politics today. And because the U.A.E.-Israel axis brings together the most successful Arab state with the most successful non-Arab state, it’s radiating a lot of energy.With Israel and the U.A.E., “what you are seeing are two ecosystems fusing together,” says Gidi Grinstein, head of Reut, the Israeli strategy institute. Israel is a society that for many years faced hostility from its neighbors and had no oil. “So, over the years, Israel learned to go from isolation and scarcity to abundance and global influence by developing its own explosive innovation economy in areas such as water, solar, cyber, military, medical, finance and agriculture.”The U.A.E., by contrast, is transitioning from decades of oil abundance to an era of oil scarcity by building its own ecosystem of innovation and entrepreneurship in the same fields as Israel.The U.A.E.’s population consists of one million citizens and nine million foreigners, most of them low-wage, non-unionized laborers from India and other parts of South Asia and the rest professionals largely from America, Europe, India and the Arab world. The U.A.E.’s growth strategy for the 21st century — of which the opening to Israel is a key part — is to become THE Arab model for modernity, a diversified economy, globalization and intra-religious tolerance.To that end, in November the country announced a major liberalization of its Islamic personal laws — allowing unmarried couples to cohabitate, which, among other things, makes the U.A.E. more accepting of gay and lesbian people; criminalizing so-called honor killings of women who “shame” their male relatives — as well as made divorce laws much more equitable for women and loosened restrictions on alcohol.The U.A.E. is still an absolute monarchy, and a multiparty democracy is not on the menu. But greater gender equality, a more open education system and religious pluralism are. It still has work to do in all those areas, though — witness the embarrassing saga around the leader of Dubai, whose daughter is reportedly being held hostage in her father’s palace. But the U.A.E.’s new social laws constitute a big leap forward in its quest to attract the talent needed for a non-oil economy.All the neighbors are watching, and they are particularly watching how Iran and Saudi Arabia react.If you are a Lebanese Shiite living in the poor southern suburbs of Beirut having to scramble every day to barter eggs for meat — as the economy teeters on collapse — you’re asking, Why are we stuck with Iran and its axis of failing proxies like Hezbollah, which just keep letting the past bury our future?That is a dangerous question for Iran and Hezbollah. And more Lebanese are asking every day.
The U.A.E., Bahrain, Morocco and Saudi Arabia need to understand that they have more leverage now to influence Israeli-Palestinian relations than they realize. Israel does not want to lose them. Imagine if Saudi Arabia agreed to join the Abraham Accords, but only on the condition that it could open the Saudi Embassy to Israel in Israeli West Jerusalem while, at the same time, opening an embassy to the Palestinians in an Arab neighborhood of East Jerusalem.Just that one move would help preserve the possibility of a two-state deal, would revitalize the 2002 Saudi peace initiative and would further isolate Iran’s axis of failure. And Israel would find it very hard to reject.
Tuesday, March 02, 2021
Why the Left struggles on the Israel question - opinion
These debates on the role of the Jewish people and Israel in the global scheme does not take into consideration a second factor: internal tensions within the Left. The initial development of Israel as a social-democratic state with some revolutionary implementations of socialist practice via the kibbutz movement made the country a beacon for the labor-movement oriented Old Left in the West, but the sudden creation of the New Left in the 1960s, which emphasized Third Worldism, reshaped that perception. Israel’s miraculous victory in 1967 cemented the changed perception and split between the Old and New Left.Jewish Voice for Peace fights to preserve anti-Zionist hatred online
While the initial perception of Israel among the Old Left was that beleaguered social-democratic state surrounded by reactionary Arab regimes, the Six Day War, leading to the capture of Jerusalem and West Bank, paved the view in the New Left of a Western state with irredentist goals. Where one stands in the current makeup of left-wing political parties, whether Old or New Left, inherently shapes your perception of Israel.
The left-wing debate over the 1967 war, as a justified war of defense or conquest, is another fundamental point of contention the Left currently struggles with. The change could be seen in the UK Labour party, initially dominated by the Old Left and strongly supportive of Israel up until the 1980s, then following the Blair era, becoming increasingly supportive of radical anti-Zionism, hitting its peak with Jeremy Corbyn. The same struggle today can be seen within the two camps of Antifa in Germany, the fiercely Zionist anti-Germans and the dominant anti-imperialist camp that is also anti-Zionist. It remains unclear if the US Democratic Party will follow the same path as Labour, but the split does exist, between the weaker democratic-socialists and liberal/moderate factions of the party.
The group Jewish Voice for Peace (JVP) claims to oppose bigotry and to support security and self-determination for both Israelis and Palestinians. But a new campaign JVP has joined aims to block rumored plans by Facebook to add the term "Zionism" to its hate speech policies. Zionism is the belief in Jewish self-determination in their ancestral homeland: In other words, supporting Israel's right to exist.Alexander Joffe: IHRA Definition of Antisemitism Becomes a BDS Battleground
"@Facebook is considering whether to treat 'Zionist' as proxy for 'Jew' in its hate speech policy," JVP tweeted last week during a Twitter town hall. "This would make 'Zionist' a de facto protected category, letting FB shut down critical conversations about Zionists under the guise of fighting antisemitism."
"If @Facebook restricts use of the word 'Zionist' on its platforms, already severe censorship will grow," the anti-Semitic BDS Movement also wrote during the Twitter town hall. "Palestinians will be blocked from describing our daily lives under Israeli apartheid, and our family histories of dispossession and military occupation."
An anonymous Facebook employee sent out an email detailing how the social media company should moderate anti-Semitism on its platform, technology news website The Verge reported in November. A Facebook spokesperson told The Verge that the term Zionist is removed from its platform if and when it is used as a proxy for anti-Semitism.
"We are looking at the question of how we should interpret attacks on 'Zionists' to determine whether the term is used as a proxy for attacking Jewish or Israeli people," the Facebook employee wrote. "The term brings with it much history and various meanings, and we are looking to increase our understanding of how it is used by people on our platform."
JVP joined the campaign opposing the policy, "Facebook, We Need to Talk." It has received support from nearly 52,000 people. It claims that the social media giant may decide on a policy this month. JVP will be on board to virtually deliver the petition to Facebook during a webinar this week.
Pushback against the IHRA definition of antisemitism also intensified in February. A discussion hosted by the leading BDS organization IfNotNow laid out the stakes, stating, “the IHRA definition of anti-Semitism has been destroying the progressive movement.”
Angrily claiming that BDS and hatred of Israel are not antisemitism despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, various “human rights” groups such as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International and Jewish groups such as J Street, the New Israel Fund, and American Friends of Peace Now, use opposition to IHRA as a means to consolidate institutional power, split Jews and liberals, and legitimize opposition to the definition.
Misrepresenting the IHRA definition is critical to this approach — especially in higher education. At Syracuse University, a motion in the student government to adopt the IHRA definition was tabled due to allegations that it conflated antisemitism and anti-Zionism.
At University College London (UCL) the student union rejected calls for the university to rescind its adoption of the IHRA definition. Jewish students also complained that the debate had been scheduled for Holocaust Remembrance Day. In contrast, a faculty board at UCL rejected the definition, demanding the administration “retract and replace [IHRA] with a more precise definition” that presumably does not include mention of Israel. The faculty decision prompted the angry resignation of a faculty member specializing in antisemitism, who accused some of his colleagues in Jewish Studies of spearheading the assault on the IHRA definition.
Other examples in the UK include Bristol University professor David Miller, who has a long history of antisemitic abuse of students and overt anti-Israel hatred. Most recently, Miller was condemned by students, the university, and others for demanding “the end of Zionism as a functioning ideology” and for alleging that “Jewish students on British campuses [are] being used as political pawns by a violent, racist foreign regime engaged in ethnic cleansing,” and that Jewish student “lobbying for Israel is a threat to the safety of Arab and Muslim students as well as of Jewish students and indeed of all critics of Israel.”
An American counterpart to Miller is Marc Lamont Hill of Temple University, who claimed that the Black Lives Matter movement supports the “dismantling of the Zionist project.” Hill also stated that Israel was a “settler-colonial movement in Palestine” which was responsible for police violence in the US.
Tuesday, March 02, 2021
Elder of Ziyon
cartoon of the day, humor
Tuesday, March 02, 2021
Elder of Ziyon
Anti-Semitism is very real, of that there is no doubt, but the greatest threat to Jewish people today comes not from those on the political left who criticise the Zionist state of Israel. It comes from those on the far right whose pernicious influence is spreading across North America and Europe.This is obvious to reasonable political observers. However, the facts are being masked by the pro-Israel lobby which insists on conflating anti-Semitism with criticism of Zionism, the ideology which underpins colonial Israel. It is enough simply to mention Israel's brutal military occupation of Palestine to incur the lobby's wrath. Ironically, though, this Zionist witch-hunt fails to protect Jews.We should all be deeply concerned by this sinister development. Not only is this an attack on free speech and one step away from book burning, but it is also diverting attention from the real threat to Jews from right-wing anti-Semites who feel so emboldened that they have brazenly turned their guns on synagogues and carried out other atrocities against Jews.
I want you to imagine, well what I was going to say that I want you to imagine they are my children but they are our children, they are our children. And this is what Barbara Lubin wrote in her email to me today. She got through the Rafah border after queuing for 10 hours and she said ‘out of all the devastation that I have seen so far, there is one story in particular that I think the world needs to hear. I met a mother who was at home with her ten children when Israeli soldiers entered the house. The soldiers told her she had to choose five of her children to give as a gift to Israel. As she screamed in horror they repeated the demand, and told her she could chose or they would choose for her. Then these soldiers murdered five of her children in front of her.’ The concept of Jewish morality is truly dead. We can be fascist, terrorist, the Nazis, just like anyone else. Can you imagine the mother’s dilemma being told choose! Can you imagine the horror of being told choose! Which child should live and which child to die.
Pompeo: US officials tried to undermine Abraham Accords to help Palestinians
Former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is accusing certain US and European officials of attempting to block the historic Abraham Accords in order to keep the Palestinian issue at the top of the international agenda.
In a speech at the annual conference of the Combat Anti-Semitism movement, at which the organization awarded him a prize, Pompeo discussed opposition to the accords and said that the Russians, as well as certain policy-makers in the United States and Europe, would have preferred to see them fail to materialize.
According to Pompeo, the unnamed officials wanted to maintain the "delusion" that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was the keystone to regional peace. The former secretary of state said that when the opponents of the accords, realized that no Intifada would erupt as a result of the agreements being signed, and Israel could establish "warm ties" with its regional neighbors, they saw that the Trump administration's approach had been correct.
Pompeo said he believed that many other countries would sign on to the accords, adding that he hoped Saudi Arabia would be one, as well as Muslim countries outside the Middle East.
Pompeo also discussed the processes that led up to the accords, saying that the Palestinians had clung to their line of "no, no, no," prompting the administration to decide to move ahead with other countries in the Middle East, whose leaders said they did not want the Palestinians to bar them from establishing relations with Israel. Those countries said they wanted ties "not founded on hatred," Pompeo said.
The Abraham Accords will last, he said, adding that people in Sudan, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates would not go backward.
Melanie Phillips: The return of American anti-anti-Islamism
As Pompeo observed about the DNI note:JCPA: Africa Is a Jihadist Playground for the Resurgent Islamic State and al-Qaeda
The release of this report was reckless. It was political. It was aimed at harming a relationship with the kingdom of Saudi Arabia through the use of intelligence in a way that, as a former CIA director, I would have never stood for. I regret that because this administration wants to develop a relationship with Iran and destroy one with the kingdom of Saudi Arabia, they chose to use intelligence to do that.
According to US officials, by implicating MBS in Khashoggi’s killing but opting not to punish him personally the Biden administration wants to recalibrate the relationship with Saudi Arabia without destroying it. The Wall Street Journal reports that, according to President Biden’s press secretary:
as part of the recalibration of ties Mr. Biden sees the King as his counterpart, not the Crown Prince.
This is all astonishingly stupid. The King is old and barely functioning. MBS is the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia. Moreover, MBS is a reformer trying to drag his country out of the dark ages. Saudi women now work, drive and travel abroad without permission of a male guardian. Previously banned cinemas have sprung up along with public entertainments such as rock concerts.
Sure, this is all small change by western standards; and the Saudi regime is still guilty of barbaric abuses of human rights. But at least MBS is pushing his country a little in the right direction. By damaging him in this way, the Biden administration has empowered his Muslim Brotherhood enemies who want to bring him down and return Saudi Arabia to an even more repressive ethos — as well as enmity against the west. What perversity is this?
The risks are that, with such cold winds once again blowing from the White House, Saudi Arabia will cosy up to Russia and China, thus destabilising the region and damaging western defences. And America will again shockingly become what it became under President Obama — anti-anti-Islamist. Which, whether the Biden administration wants this to happen or not, will put it on the side of the Islamic fanatics, whether the Sunni Muslim Brothers or the Shia “Twelvers” who are all at war with the west — and also intent upon repressing freedom-seeking Muslims everywhere.
Internationally, America is now a wasting asset. Its enemies can scarcely believe their luck — or conceal their contempt. Its allies are looking on aghast. And the Biden administration is still only six weeks old.
The presence of the extremist groups in the “jihadist belt” has destabilized the area and has had a crucial impact on the willingness of outside investors to risk huge sums in those regions at risk. The United States and France’s military presence, together with its local allies of the G5 (Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Chad), has succeeded in limiting the damage perpetrated by the Jihadist organizations but has failed to eradicate the phenomenon.
“We also see a serious regional threat from violent extremist organizations emanating from the Sahel,” warned General Townsend, head of the U.S. Army’s AFRICOM. “Security is deteriorating rapidly, with a 250% increase in VEO violence since 2018 in Burkina Faso, Mali, and western Niger. Having quickly spread from northern Mali, al-Qaida’s JNIM, ISIS-aligned groups, and other VEOs are now operating throughout the Sahel region.”9 Nevertheless, France’s President Emmanuel Macron is considering a reduction of the French military force of 5,100 in the Sahel states.10
The involvement of Western powers in the fight against jihadism is meant primarily to fight the terrorists in their own territory in the hope that it will also thwart terrorism outside Africa. However, it is unclear if this method actually protects Europe, in particular, as many attacks have been carried out by home-grown jihadists affiliated with the Islamic State.
On the other hand, it is also clear that ending the West’s war carried out in Africa against jihadism would prove fatal to shaky regimes and open the doors to terrorist activities in Europe. The example of thousands of brain-washed Europeans who volunteered to join the ranks of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria proves that there is fertile ground in Europe to sow jihadist activity exported from Africa.
Today, it is obvious that the declaration of victory against the Islamic State was erroneous. “The international community is not making durable progress in containing priority VEOs in Africa,” warned the American Army commander in Africa.11
Even though beaten and left without its territorial base following its defeat by the coalition forces in 2017, the Islamic State is still very much alive and, from time to time, reminds all concerned that it has not been vanquished.
Tuesday, March 02, 2021
Elder of Ziyon
Speaking at a weekly press conference on Monday, Saeed Khatibzadeh categorically rejected the accusations made by the Zionist regime that Iran has been connected to explosions on board MV Helios Ray cargo ship.The fact that the source of such an allegation is the Zionist regime reveals how baseless the accusation is, he stated.
Tuesday, March 02, 2021
Elder of Ziyon
Born in Netanya, Israel, Rabbi Yaron Reuven began his American Dream as a little boy, when his family immigrated to the United States. He went from a newspaper boy at the age of 10, to a well known self made Wall Street multimillionaire by the age of 23. During his time in Wall Street he owned his own private brokerage firm, as well as a hedge fund and international insurance agency.At age 26 he faced a 7-year battle for his life when a simple surgery went wrong. From that moment his life would never be the same. This moment marked the start of a series of miraculous events and an exciting pursuit of truth, ultimately resulting in Rabbi Reuven renouncing his lofty position and success in Wall Street, after 16 years, to become a full time kiruv rabbi. His Teshuva story is sure to catch the heart of every listener.
Outside of videos, I cannot find any evidence of Rabbi Reuven's scholarship. His main written record is from his days as a money manager, not as a rabbi. His other accomplishment was to harass a Boca Raton Orthodox rabbi and his wife.
Tuesday, March 02, 2021
Elder of Ziyon
We seek to accomplish a great deal with the Saudis: to end the war in Yemen and ease Yemen’s humanitarian crisis, to use our leadership to forge ties across the region’s most bitter divide[s], whether that’s finding the way back from the brink of war with Iran, and to a meaningful regional dialogue, or forging a historic peace with Israel....But we can only address these many important challenges in a partnership with Saudi Arabia that respects America’s values.
The US has every right to condition its relationships with other countries on their human rights records. Admittedly, the fact that it is practically begging to build a relationship with Iran without any similar conditions makes this look a bit hypocritical.
But to say that the US won't try to broker peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia unless the Saudis meet certain arbitrary conditions? That is punishing Israel for Saudi Arabia's human rights posture!
All this will do is make the US irrelevant in the region, as the Israelis and Saudis will not wait for US approval to do what is in their own best interests. In fact, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain are discussing a common defense alliance.
Note that the US is not part of those discussions. This alliance would be in spite of the United States, not because of it, as the Gulf nations and Israel are wary of Biden doing what Obama did and discarding US allies in favor of coddling Iran.
Monday, March 01, 2021
David Collier: Weekend at David’s. Relentless attacks – on Jews, Zionism and Israel
The current attacks on Jewish people, Zionism and Israel are relentless. Zoom provides a cheap and easy option to hold an endless stream of events and anti-Israel activists are making the most of it. This is the story of my weekend:Anti-Semitism in Britain: Tuvia Tenenbom’s ‘The Taming of the Jew’
Weekend – Friday night starter
On Friday night, just before I sat down to eat dinner and welcome the Shabbat with my family, I sat through a David Miller support event. There is no rational reason for supporting Miller – the professor clearly overstepped the mark in his comments on Bristol’s Jewish students. If instead of Jews, he had attacked members of the black community or British Muslim students in a similar fashion – he’d have been fired the same day. We all know this is true, but because Miller attacked Jews – he didn’t just avoid sanction – he has a support network.
The organising group for Friday’s event was ‘Labour Campaign for Free Speech‘, which like ‘Labour Against the Witchhunt’ appears to be just groups of people who want to freely attack Jews with impunity and are annoyed that currently there seems to be a price to pay for doing so.
The event was mainly attended by ‘suspended’ or expelled Labour Party members and their friends. People who in many cases were caught sharing antisemitic posts or commentary – and want to blame the ‘bad Jews’ for the situation they find themselves in. Attendees included well-known Labour antisemitism figures such as Tina Werkmann, Moshe Machover and Jonathan Rosenhead. Approximately 150 people attended in total.
The list is long. Other familiar faces included antisemitic conspiracy theorist Tony Gratrex of Palestine Live fame – and long time anti-Israel activist Tony Greenstein. It was Tony Greenstein who made the message stream the most colourful with his talk about CST and their ‘strong connections’ to the Mossad:
The speakers told the usual lies about the IHRA, spread disinformation about Labour’s antisemitism – and some made the most outrageous of remarks. The truly frightening thought is that some of these people used to be Councillors or hold posts in their local constituency party. One of them stood to be Treasurer of the Labour Party in the 2020 NEC Elections.
Tuvia Tenenbom, now in his mid-60s, is a phenomenon. Born in Israel, he lives in Germany and the United States. He is a theatre director, playwright, author, journalist and the founding artistic director of the Jewish Theater of New York. But he is best known for his irreverent, topical and hugely opinionated books including, recently, Catch the Jew! (2014), The Lies they Tell (2016), Hello, Refugees! (2017) and now, The Taming of the Jew: A Journey Through the United Kingdom (Gefen Publishing House, available on Amazon at £15.59). He deserves to be better known here and The Taming of the Jew is a perfect place to start.What will the Middle East look like in 2030? An Israeli Perspective
Tenenbom is perhaps best described as an Israeli version of Michael Moore or Borat, someone who goes around, meets people, takes on hugely controversial subjects and gets them to open up in the way more conventional journalists don’t manage to. All those exclamation marks in the titles gives you a good sense of Tenenbom’s style.
He begins his seven-month tour of Britain and Ireland in Dublin. The first person he interviews is an Irishman, called Mike, who he has just met at lunch. “Is there one issue that unites all the Irish people? I want to know. ‘Ireland,’ Mike tells me, ‘is the most anti-Israel, anti-Jewish country in Europe…’” And we’re off. Then he meets the Lord Mayor of Dublin and in no time the Mayor is telling Tenenbom, “Irish people would have a lot of sympathy with the Palestinian people.”
The pace and the bonhomie are unrelenting. But so is the anti-Semitism. Tenenbom manages to catch people off guard with his disarming honesty and in no time they are coming out with these astonishing views about Israel, Jews and anti-Semitism. Everyone he meets in Ireland, North or South, seems to hate Israel and love the Palestinians and yet Tenenbom likes them all and enjoys everything he sees about the Irish. He puts some of these encounters online and “Irish people respond in writing”. What do they say? “Truly the Jews are a disgusting species.” “Reminds me I need to get some new lampshades, some soap too.” He’s not remotely bothered. It’s as if, unlike every mainstream journalist, he knows this is what people are like, that you don’t have to probe far under the surface to find the most appalling views about Jews and Israel. And yet the cheery bonhomie is never rattled by these encounters.
The following article addresses the question of how the Middle East might develop in the coming decade. Long-term and detailed strategic predictions are a thankless task and are often doomed to failure. One need look no further than the World Economic Forum’s report on global risks published in January 2020.1 It assessed the likelihood of an infectious disease outbreak or instability in the global energy market as relatively unlikely, even though both ended up happening less than two months after the report’s publication.
Therefore, this article refrains from attempts at prophecy but deals instead with “thinking about the future.” It opens with an analytical framework for scenario development, supplemented by “trends impact” and “horizon scanning.” The second section studies “the futures of the past,” in terms of what we might learn about the pitfalls of future projection and scenario-building from those outlining possible futures for 2020 from years past. Then, on the basis of the first two sections, four scenarios elaborate some distinctly different pathways that the Middle East might take to 2030. Finally, the article concludes with several key takeaways for Israeli decision makers. Read the report (PDF)
Elder of Ziyon


















