Poll: 70% of PalArabs expect a new intifada if peace talks fail

In the latest Palestinian Center for Public Opinion poll, we learn:

A plurality of Palestinian Arabs support resumption of peace talks with Israel without preconditions - 40.2% versus 25.2% who oppose them. This is at odds with PA policy.

Also a slight plurality believe that Israelis are interested in peace - 45.5% against 44.7%.

One question revealed more the biases of the pollster than the feelings of the people:

When asked “ In case all efforts towards peace have collapsed, which of the following options are most probable to administer Palestinian affairs?” more than one-third  37.4% of Palestinians are for the dismantling the PA and holding the international community responsible for the legal vacuum that will arise, whereas 24.7% are in favor of declaring a Palestinian state and escalating resistance, 34.6% for keeping the “ status quo” with developing new strategies to run Palestinian affairs, and 3.3% say “do not know”.

To the pollster, unilateral declaration of a Palestinian Arab state is obviously going to be accompanied with increased "resistance," not with peace!

The most important result was that over 70% of the respondents expect a third intifada to break out if peace talks "stumble." Which probably means that the chances are very high for a new outbreak of violence if a Palestinian Arab state is declared unilaterally - since that shows that the peace talks have already failed.

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Palestinian Arabs become more Islamist

In a new Near East Consulting survey of Palestinian Arabs (from Wafa):

57% identified themselves as Muslims first, 21% identified themselves as Palestinians first, 19% as human beings first and 5% as Arabs first.

This surprised me, as I would have swapped the "Arab" and "Muslim" categories. Certainly these numbers would have been much different before 1967. It indicates the increased Islamism of the Palestinian Arabs.

Indeed:

The increase in adherence to religious identity is also reflected in the system preferred by the Palestinian people.


About 40% of the respondents said that they believe that the Islamic caliphate is the best system for Palestinians, 24% chose a system like one of the Arab countries, and 12 % prefer a system like one of the European countries.

Again, this is in contradiction to previous polls that indicated that Palestinian Arabs admire Israel's democracy to any other system, but those polls probably didn't mention the caliphate as an option.

Put together, it looks like pan-Islamism has nearly replaced pan-Arabism in the minds of Palestinian Arabs, which does not bode well if their restless neighbors are also heading in that direction.

(h/t Challah Hu Akbar)

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Jerusalem Arabs again prefer to live in Israel than "Palestine"

From YNet:

A recent survey conducted by Pechter Middle East Polls, in partnership with the Council on Foreign Relations, ahead of the possible Palestinian bid for statehood in September, revealed that given a choice, the majority of east Jerusalem residents would prefer to remain Israelis.

The survey sampled 1,039 Palestinians living in all 19 neighborhoods of east Jerusalem, and was supervised by Dr. David Pollock.

Perhaps the most striking finding regarded the residents' citizenship preference, after a two-state solution is reached: When asked if they preferred to become citizens of Palestine or remain citizens of Israel, only 30% chose Palestinian citizenship. Thirty five percent chose Israeli citizenship and 35% declined to answer or said they didn’t know.

When asked if they would move to a different home inside Israel if their neighborhood became part of Palestine,40% said they were "likely to move to Israel" and 27% said they were "likely to move to Palestine" if their neighborhood became part of Israel.

What makes these numbers more amazing is that they reflect attitudes shaped by decades of media incitement against Israel and of generations being inculcated with an ethos of a fake historic Palestinian Arab nationalism.

The idea that 40% would actually pick up and move their families to live in Israel is in itself astonishing, and proves more than anything else that Israel treats its Arab citizens better than they expect to be treated in "Palestine."

(h/t Joel)

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Pew poll: Egyptians want to scrap Camp David, prefer sharia law

A new Pew Research poll of Egypt shows some worrying trends.

No dividend emerges for the United States from the political changes that have occurred in Egypt. Favorable ratings of the U.S. remain as low as they have been in recent years, and many Egyptians say they want a less close relationship with America. Israel fares even more poorly. By a 54%-to-36% margin, Egyptians want the peace treaty with that country annulled.

The military is now almost universally seen (88%) as having a good influence on the way things are going in Egypt. Fully 90% rate military chief Mohamed Tantawi favorably.

Egyptians are welcoming some forms of change more than others. While half say it is very important that religious parties be allowed to be part of the government, only 27% give a similar priority to assuring that the military falls under civilian control. Relatively few (39%) give high priority to women having the same rights as men. Women themselves are more likely to say it is very important that they are assured equal rights than are men (48% vs. 30%). Overall, just 36% think it is very important that Coptic Christians and other religious minorities are able to freely practice their religions.

Egyptians hold diverse views about religion. About six-in-ten (62%) think laws should strictly follow the teachings of the Quran. However, only 31% of Egyptian Muslims say they sympathize with Islamic fundamentalists, while nearly the same number (30%) say they sympathize with those who disagree with the fundamentalists, and 26% have mixed views on this question. Those who disagree with fundamentalists are almost evenly divided on whether the treaty with Israel should be annulled, while others favor ending the pact by a goodly margin.

If more than half of those who favor Shari'a law are not sympathetic to "fundamentalists," this means that the Arab definition of "fundamentalist" is much different than the Western definition. After all, wanting to have the nation ruled by religious law is, by definition, a fundamentalist position.

This means that Western journalists and pundits who try to paint the Muslim Brotherhood as outside the mainstream of Egypt are missing the real story.

Only 20% of Egyptians hold a favorable opinion of the United States, which is nearly identical to the 17% who rated it favorably in 2010. Better educated and younger Egyptians have a slightly more positive attitude toward the U.S. than do other Egyptians.

Looking to the future, few Egyptians (15%) want closer ties with the U.S., while 43% would prefer a more distant relationship, and 40% would like the relationship between the two countries to remain about as close as it has been in recent years.

So in what sense is Egypt considered an "ally" of the US again?

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YNet needs to learn how to read polls

From YNet:

Israel is one of the least popular countries in the world, according to a survey conducted by Globescan for the BBC in 27 different states.

More than 28,000 people were polled between December of 2010 and February of this year in a survey designed to gauge attitudes towards various countries worldwide.

Just 21% of those polled expressed a positive opinion of Israel, while 49% expressed a negative attitude towards the Jewish state. However dismal, the numbers are still an improvement from last year, when just 19% were pro-Israel.

Of the 17 countries included in the survey, only three were found to be less popular than Israel – Pakistan, North Korea, and Iran – with 17% and 16% of those polled supporting them, respectively. More than 55% of those polled expressed a negative attitude towards these states.

When looking at a poll, it is critical to know the question being asked.

And the question being asked in this poll was not "how much do you like country X?" as YNet seems to imply. It was:

Please tell me if you think each of the following countries is having a mainly positive or mainly negative influence in the world:

That is a completely different question and it is not a popularity question (although some of the surveyed will of course think of it that way.)

Also, since the poll started, Israel's numbers have been generally rising! Amongthe bottom of the list, only Israel's ratings went up this year, while Pakistan, North Korea, and Iran went down.

The one troubling part is that while Americans who were positive about Israel's influence stayed the same, the number who were negative increased by 10%.

I'm not trying to say that Israel's numbers would be great if it was a popularity poll, but reporters need to learn to understand basic English.

One other thing: The poll only asks people about 17 countries. No Arab countries are on the list. How would Saudi Arabia, or Libya, or Syria, or even Egypt rank in this list? Who knows? But I would guess that the world does not have warm feelings for those countries' influence either. So when Arab news outlets trumpet this report that Israel is ranked so low, it makes one wonder how they would perform.

And how come the BBC doesn't think that they should be included.

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Newspaper poll: Majority of PalArab view saving Jews as "disgraceful"

From Ma'an:

A slim majority of the respondents to a reader poll on Ma'an's Arabic-language news site said sending Palestinian firefighters to help battle Israel's fire was "disgraceful."

Firefighters from more than 16 countries helped to extinguish the blaze, the worst in Israel's history, which broke out on Dec. 2 and spread through the Carmel forest for four days.

Of 48,870 readers who responded to the 7-day poll, 50.3 percent (24,524) described Palestinians' participation as a disgrace, but 48.7 percent (23,761) said sending Palestinian firefighters to help was civilized and a humanitarian duty.

Newspaper polls are far from scientific, but Ma'an is certainly one of the more moderate Palestinian Arabic news websites out there. My guess is that a real poll would show that far fewer PalArabs support saving Jewish lives in Israel.

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More results from the poll of Palestinian Arabs

Here are some more highlights from  The Israel Project poll of Palestinian Arabs that should make anyone pause before wanting to grant them a state of their won.

A Palestinian state should be run by Sharia Law. 55%
A Palestinian state should be run by civil law. 35%

The best goal is for a two state solution that keeps two states living side by side. 30%
The real goal should be to start with two states but then move to it all being one Palestinian state. 60%

Israel has a permanent right to exist as a homeland for the Jewish people. 23%
Over time Palestinians must work to get back all the land for a Palestinian state. 66%

In 2000, President Bill Clinton proposed a Palestinian-Israeli peace agreement in which the Palestinians would receive an independent state, which included Gaza and nearly all of the West Bank, using the 1967 green line, exchanging Israeli land for larger settlements. It made East Jerusalem the capital of the Palestinian state, with control over Palestinian quarters of the Old City. Yasir Arafat rejected this offer. In retrospect, do you wish Arafat had accepted this peace agreement - yes or no?
Yes: 24%
No: 71%

Some of the answers, to be sure, seemed to contradict these, as in the abstract they seem to support a two-state solution. But when specific compromises are mentioned, they reject every one.

And they make it crystal clear that a two-state solution is not a final agreement, and that they will try to take over Israel as well, signed agreement or not.

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Terrorists win Palestinian Arab popularity contest

The Israel Project commissioned a poll in the West Bank and Gaza last month surveying Palestinian Arab opinions about various topics.

The results are most enlightening.

This post is about one specific question:

Now, I'd like you to rate your feelings toward some people, countries, and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person, country, or organization.

Here are the results, sorted from lowest score (coldest feelings) to the highest (warmest feelings), along with their respective mean scores:

Israelis 3.3 Israel 4 Benjamin Netanyahu 4.4 American Jews 7.8 Tony Blair 9.2 Barack Obama 10.7 The United States 14.5 Hillary Clinton 15.2 A one-state solution 28.7 Two-state solution with an independent Palestinian state and Israel as a Jewish state 30.2 Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 40 Iran 40.4 Two-state solution 41.3 Hamas 42.6 The peace process 42.6 Ismail Haniyeh 44.1 Hezbollah 44.6 Palestinian Authority 54.2 Salam Fayyad 54.5 Mahmoud Abbas 57 Fatah 57.6 Marwan Bargouti 64.5 Khalil Ibrahim al-Wazir ("Abu Jihad") 71.2 Dalal Mughrabi 74.5

By far, the winners of the popularity context (at least that were named) were three terrorists, and the top one could not credibly be called anything but a terrorist (the other two at least had some political activities outside of terrorism.)

And for some reason Barack Obama, the most pro-Palestinian Arab president in history, hasn't seemed to have gained much for his efforts at least in this part of the Arab world. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad trounces him in popularity among the moderate, pragmatic, peace-loving Palestinian Arabs.

More analysis form this poll to come.

(h/t JoeSettler)

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Al-Ahram: Hamas suppressed poll that made them look bad

Firas Press, quoting Al-Ahram, says Hamas commissioned a public opinion poll in Gaza - and then stopped publication of the results when they were found to be less than complimentary towards the terrorist group.

According to the story, the poll showed a great decline in Hamas' popularity in Gaza across the board, including the performance of its quasi-government ministries and security services.

Gazans had no more confidence in Fatah, however, and blamed Hamas, Fatah and Israel equally for the failure of Hamas and Fatah to reconcile.

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Poll: Gaza and WB Arabs cannot express themselves without fear

We've seen numerous times how easily Palestinian Arab "eyewitnesses" lie to the media to make Israel look as bad as possible. Not nearly as often, we've seen journalists actually go a little beyond the sound bites and find Arabs who will go against the conventional wisdom and tell the truth - but almost invariably, they demand to remain anonymous.

There is a very simple reason that this occurs: fear.

The latest poll from the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research asks a very simple question:

In your view, can people in the Gaza Strip/West Bank today criticize the authority without fear?

The percentage of Gazans who answered "no" about their territory was 71.2%. This would not surprise most observers.

But the percentage of West Bank Arabs who answered "no" to the same question about their territory was nearly as high: 68.4% (or 71% of those who answered the question.)

More than two out of every three people who live in the West Bank feel fearful of simply criticizing their government. The same government that Western journalists and pundits are falling over themselves to praise as transparent and progressive has instilled a culture of fear that is nearly as pervasive as the one in Gaza! It might have improved in the past couple of years (as this poll seems to indicate) but it is nowhere near the paradise of progressiveness that the media has been breathlessly reporting.

Another question illustrates the fear that both Gazans and West Baners have of their governments:

To what extent are you worried or not worried that you or a member of your family could be hurt in your daily life by other Palestinians such as those affiliated with Fateh or Hamas?

The answers for West Bank and Gaza were again very similar - 48% of Gazans were worried or very worried about being hurt by other Palestinian Arabs, but 45% of West Bankers have that same fear.

There cannot be true freedom as long as people are afraid to publicly criticize their own leaders. Yet the world supports the establishment of yet another state without basic freedom of expression.

Isn't that a problem?

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