Monday, April 21, 2025

  • Monday, April 21, 2025
  • Elder of Ziyon
Last week Jordan announced that it had discovered a local plot to manufacture rockets, linked to people in Lebanon, which it blamed on the Muslim Brotherhood. I didn't think the local MB was likely behind it, since their position in Jordan is precarious enough; it seemed for likely to be an Iranian plot using Hezbollah and/or Hamas as proxies.

New details have come up which indicate I am right:
“This plot was likely orchestrated by a dissident group with extremist leanings, but the government may have used the opportunity to undermine the Muslim Brotherhood as a whole, especially following the IAF’s [MB political party] electoral gains,” said Neil Quilliam, a senior associate fellow at Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa program.

The Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood swiftly denied any involvement, saying it has “always supported the security and stability of Jordan.” That disavowal reportedly angered Hamas and its supporters, according to several observers.

“From an ideological standpoint, this could involve Hamas operatives in Lebanon,” said Jordanian political analyst Amer Sabaileh, noting that Lebanon has also detained Palestinians and Lebanese nationals in connection to the case. “Jordanian intelligence has tracked a Hezbollah- and Hamas-linked network working to move weapons into the kingdom and train operatives.”

Sabaileh also warned of a broader Iranian effort to turn Jordan into a logistical hub for its regional strategy. “After many arms seizures, the focus shifted to domestic weapons manufacturing and training local operatives,” he said.

Since then, the Lebanese army has arrested Hamas operatives who fired rockets towards Israel, and even foiled a planned attack:

The Lebanese Army announced Sunday that it had thwarted a planned rocket attack from southern Lebanon toward Israel and arrested several suspects in the Saida region.

Rockets launched into Israel on March 22 and 28, which were never claimed and were intercepted by the Israeli army, were used as justification by the Israeli army for two deadly strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs, and almost daily strikes on the South and Bekaa regions.

In a statement, the Lebanese Army said that following the arrests of “members of the group that carried out these operations,” it obtained intelligence indicating preparations for a new attack.

A military patrol subsequently raided an apartment in the Saida-Zahrani area, where it seized “several rockets and their launch pads.” Several individuals involved in the plot were arrested, the statement added.

On April 16, the army said it had arrested members of a “group composed of Lebanese and Palestinians” suspected of launching the rockets in March. A security source told L’Orient Today's correspondent that three of the suspects were members of Hamas.
Hamas has shown that it is willing to drag other countries into the conflict against their will. It seems to believe that the constant media coverage of civilian deaths in Gaza is strengthening its political position in neighboring Arab countries, and this is a major miscalculation. Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon hate Hamas and will do anything they think necessary to shut it down.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah's position in Lebanon, while not endangered yet, is subject to increasing criticism.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun affirmed on Sunday that the decision to confine all arms to the state has already been made, but he emphasized that its enforcement hinges on the “right conditions” to determine the timing and method.
Aoun’s statement came two days after Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem firmly rejected any possibility of disarmament. “We will not allow anyone to disarm Hezbollah or the resistance,” Qassem had said in a televised address.
He warned that Hezbollah has “other options,” though he stopped short of specifying them.
Hezbollah is still threatening Lebanon, and the Lebanese people are fed up both with it and with Hamas.

Iran is the common denominator behind all of this, and while Jordan and Lebanon do not feel comfortable yet in directly criticizing Iran, you can be sure that behind closed doors they understand that Iran is their real enemy - and Israel isn't.



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