Seth Mandel: Welcome to the New Great Game
Where in the world is Bibi Netanyahu? Like the old Carmen Sandiego computer game, we’re following clues, tracking steps, investigating sightings. Turns out he’s on Mount Hermon in Syria today, at a briefing with top IDF brass.How Israel Can Win the War
He was rumored to be en route to Cairo for Hamas cease-fire talks, and while he wasn’t there this morning, he may be by tomorrow. Negotiations over a hostage deal appear, by all accounts, to be in the home stretch.
The visit to Mount Hermon is significant: it might be the first time a sitting Israeli premier has been in Syria (openly, at least) while in office. What his Syria trip and his expected Cairo trip have in common is that they are to assess the status of de-Iranization in the region.
The last time a power vacuum of this magnitude opened up in the Middle East was the fall of the Soviet Union. Before that, it was the end of the British Mandate for Palestine. Iran is not gone completely, of course—far from it. Yet its empire is collapsing in much the way the Ottoman Empire collapsed a century earlier: In a global conflict, it is aligned against the West and it is paying for that choice.
Netanyahu, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and Jordanian king Abdullah cannot wait for the dust to settle, because nature abhors a vacuum.
As does Turkey.
“Senior U.S. officials say Turkey and its militia allies are building up forces along the border with Syria, raising alarm that Ankara is preparing for a large-scale incursion into territory held by American-backed Syrian Kurds,” reports the Wall Street Journal today. “The forces include militia fighters, Turkish uniformed commandos and artillery in large numbers that are concentrated near Kobani, a Kurdish-majority city in Syria on the northern border with Turkey, the officials said. A Turkish cross-border operation could be imminent, one of the U.S. officials said.”
Turkey has backed a collection of rebel forces and has been newly empowered by those groups’ territorial gains in the wake of Assad’s fall. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the former al-Qaeda offshoot that has led the overthrow of Assad and now controls Damascus, is in alliance with Turkey, allowing Turkish forces to “operate within territories it controlled and the establishment of Turkish observation posts in northern Syria” before the fall of Assad, notes FDD analyst Ahmad Sharawi in a policy brief today. “HTS has even positioned itself as a gatekeeper for Ankara, curbing drug trafficking into Turkey, preventing ISIS infiltration, and apprehending individuals wanted by Turkish authorities. HTS leader Ahmad al-Shara, long known by his nom-de-guerre Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, had also allegedly supported Turkish military operations east of the Euphrates, according to a report by the Turkey-based Syria TV broadcaster.”
It is important to remember that the war did not break out because Israel wanted it. The war is Israel's response to Hamas's barbaric assault on civilian communities on Oct. 7, 2023, and it was Hizbullah that opened fire on northern Israel the day after the attack.How Israel Can Press for Victory on Its Northern Fronts
The outbreak of war was rooted in Iran's ambitions and preparations for Israel's collapse and destruction. To this end, Iran conceived and implemented the "Ring of Fire" around Israel - a coordinated campaign from all fronts conducted by terror movements built with Iranian support with the aim of destroying Israel.
The war's end must make clear to the world, especially the Muslim world, that radical Islamic movements, both Sunni and Shiite, bring disaster to their people and destruction to their believers. Hizbullah is Iran's most robust proxy; the greater the damage done to Hizbullah, the more Iran is weakened.
After Iran on two occasions fired hundreds of missiles at Israel, the actual extent of its military power was revealed, and effectively the Iranian strategy collapsed. The Israeli operation on Oct. 26, in which 20 targets in Iran were hit, made clear to the Iranians the price of direct confrontation with Israel and its weakness in the face of the capabilities Israel demonstrated.
Israel is not operating as in previous wars to achieve "threat postponement" on its borders but based on the understanding that threats must be destroyed (Hamas) or at least drastically reduced in intensity (Hizbullah).
In Lebanon, no Hizbullah personnel and no Hizbullah infrastructure should remain in the south, which should become a buffer zone mostly without residents and without the presence of any entity threatening Israel. The IDF will oversee this. The buffer zone's purpose is to prevent flat-trajectory fire toward Israeli communities and to push Hizbullah's ground forces beyond the range of executing a surprise Oct. 7-style attack.
In both Syria and Lebanon, the IDF should employ the same kind of campaign between wars as it did in Syria over the last dozen years to continue degrading Hizbullah's capabilities and not allow it to rebuild.
Just before the collapse of Syria took over the Middle East news cycle, the big question was the prudence, viability, and results of the cease-fire agreement that ended the war between Israel and Hizballah. Eran Lerman outlines Jerusalem’s strategic challenge going forward:Seth Mandel: Iran Tries To Make a Stand in Jenin
The IDF has already begun to implement a strict policy of enforcing the letter and spirit of the cease-fire terms, backed by the American position as conveyed in a crucial side letter. Swift reaction and retaliation are being used to restore deterrence, and reverse the patterns of past years, during which Israel often shrugged off Hizballah provocations, including the presence of Hizballah tents on sovereign Israel territory.
This is largely the belated lesson of October 7. . . . Only the IDF can be fully relied upon to deliver such necessary swift and decisive reactions.
Yet, Lerman emphasizes, the IDF’s campaign against Hizballah must be understood as “the beginning, not the end” of a war to break the Iranian attempt to encircle Israel with hostile forces. Responding to the fall of Bashar al-Assad, he adds:
Hizballah has not collapsed altogether, but it does face a multidimensional threat to its long-term survival as its routes of supply have been disconnected. Syrian rebels may resume direct pressure on Lebanon (as Islamic State did a decade ago—when Hizballah was the main force preventing the group’s entry into the country). Anti-Assad forces in Lebanon, hostile and vengeful toward Hizballah, may well gain the upper hand in Lebanon itself. These developments could significantly diminish Hizballah’s ability to resume its attacks on Israel or even re-establish its presence in south Lebanon, provided Israel maintains a policy of zero tolerance toward any violation of the November 2024 understandings.
The future of Gaza depends to some extent on what’s happening in Jenin this week.
The West Bank city is a hotbed of Iranian-backed militias who have spent years carving out a separatist haven there. It is a significant challenge to Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority. Both Israel and the Palestinians who want self-determination share an interest in preventing the Iranian colonial project from accomplishing its primary aim in the West Bank: Palestinian civil war and the disintegration of the Palestinian Authority.
Since Oct. 7, 2023, that has only become more urgent. At some point, the PA is expected to take over the administration of the Gaza Strip after Hamas is removed from power. If Abbas cannot maintain control over the West Bank, the PA cannot take on Gaza as well.
And so Abbas’s decision to send Palestinian security forces into Jenin is a crucial test for the aging autocrat and his government.
“The gunmen in Jenin are not resistance fighters, but mercenaries serving the dubious agenda of an outside party,” declared PA spokesman Anwar Rajab.
The New York Times describes the riddle that the PA, Israel, and the U.S. are trying to solve. Israel has been stepping up its security raids in Jenin because Abbas is barely able to step foot in the city. Israel does not want an Iranian terror-and-tunnel project in the West Bank to match the one currently undergoing disassembly in Gaza. The U.S. wants Israel to back off a bit, to enable the Palestinian security forces to gather the strength to take back Jenin. But if Israel backs off too much or for too long, the PA will fail when it does try to restore order there.
