Seth Mandel: Israel: The Mideast’s Anchor of Stability
Israel’s critics often give the impression that the Jewish state is the only state in the Middle East that doesn’t have a right to exist. But if events keep going along their current path, Israel might be the only state in the Middle East that exists at all.Prepare for Disintegration of Syria and Rise of Imperial Turkey
Hyperbole? Sure. But a look around the Levant shows just who had true sovereignty and legitimacy all along.
The Assad dynasty in Syria spent decades carving up Lebanon and negating its territorial integrity. Now Syria itself is tumbling toward the same fate: a country with borders that exist only on paper and in a state of perpetual political chaos thanks to the machinations of its foreign patrons in Tehran.
Over the weekend, Islamist rebels retook effective control of the city of Aleppo, a central node of conflict in the ongoing Syrian civil war, which began more than a decade ago. The attack, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), began last Wednesday and in less than a week has thrown the regime of Bashar al-Assad into disarray.
For the duration of the Syrian civil war, Iran and Russia have kept Assad propped up while subjecting swaths of the country to ruthless bloodletting. But both Iran and Russia are stretched at the moment, the former in its multifront war on Israel and the latter in Ukraine. Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy in Lebanon, has been so depleted by the IDF that it is unable to come to Assad’s aid in any significant way. Iran itself has been weakened substantially by Israeli counteroffensive strikes, which took out Iranian ballistic missile sites as well as Iran-aligned terror infrastructure in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. Because Iran was also providing missiles to Russia, Moscow has been hamstrung by Israel’s strikes on Iranian facilities.
This is almost certainly the reason the rebels chose to strike when they did, and it is surely why the surprise attack was as successful as it was. The rebels seemingly have drawn Russia’s air force back into the conflict, further stretching Moscow’s capabilities.
The rebels are led by an offshoot of al Qaeda and supported by Turkish-backed Islamists. They have, therefore, also done battle with the Kurds, a group traditionally backed (at least nominally) by the Western alliance, although the only NATO state involved at the moment is Turkey, which has long tried to obliterate the Kurds.
There are no “good guys” as traditionally understood in this round, and that includes our NATO “ally” Turkey, which has reembraced its role as sponsor and host of Hamas. Which is to say, the renewed rebellion can be Assad and Iran’s just deserts without being cause for bandwagoning. We don’t always have a dog in every fight.
But it does demonstrate the Jenga tower created by Iran’s regional adventurism. The more power Tehran took from Gaza, parts of the West Bank, South Lebanon and Syria, the more precarious the whole construct became. It is now teetering.
On the same day the cease-fire went into effect along the Israel-Lebanon border, rebel forces launched an unexpected offensive, and within a few days captured much of Aleppo. This lightening advance originated in the northwestern part of the country, which has been relatively quiet over the past four years, since Bashar al-Assad effectively gave up on restoring control over the remaining rebel enclaves in the area. The fighting comes at an inopportune moment for the powers that Damascus has called on for help in the past: Russia is bogged down in Ukraine and Hizballah has been shattered.Seth Frantzman: Why hasn't Hamas faced repercussions for killing American citizens?
But the situation is extremely complex. David Wurmser points to the dangers that lie ahead:
The desolation wrought on Hizballah by Israel, and the humiliation inflicted on Iran, has not only left the Iranian axis exposed to Israeli power and further withering. It has altered the strategic tectonics of the Middle East. The story is not just Iran anymore. The region is showing the first signs of tremendous geopolitical change. And the plates are beginning to move.
The removal of the religious-totalitarian tyranny of the Iranian regime remains the greatest strategic imperative in the region for the United States and its allies, foremost among whom stands Israel. . . . However, as Iran’s regime descends into the graveyard of history, it is important not to neglect the emergence of other, new threats. navigating the new reality taking shape.
The retreat of the Syrian Assad regime from Aleppo in the face of Turkish-backed, partly Islamist rebels made from remnants of Islamic State is an early skirmish in this new strategic reality. Aleppo is falling to the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS—a descendant of Nusra Front led by Abu Mohammed al-Julani, himself a graduate of al-Qaeda’s system and cobbled together of IS elements. Behind this force is the power of nearby Turkey.
HAMAS LEARNED, through the October 7 attack, that murdering and killing citizens of numerous countries hasn’t had any real negative effect on Hamas. It isn’t more isolated today than on October 6, 2023. In fact, it has the same support abroad, probably more support, than on that day.
Hamas knows it has more support on campuses in the US today than two years ago, along with support from the Global South. Its willingness to kill so many people has appeared to make it get more respect from Russia and China. This means Hamas does not assess today that it has lost out due to the attack.
It hasn’t been replaced as a governing authority in Gaza. It still controls parts of Gaza City and the central camps area in Gaza. This includes Deir al-Balah, Bureij, Maghazi and Nuseirat. Hamas assumes that the IDF is exhausted from more than a year of war and that Israel wants to let reservists go home after the battles in Lebanon.
There remain key questions related to the new information about the death of Neutra. He was a member of a tank crew on the border of Gaza on October 7. Why didn’t the US ask Doha if he was alive after the attack? Why wasn’t more done to confirm the details and status regarding the Americans held in Gaza? The fact that Hamas seems to have faced no queries from Doha about the status of Americans held in Gaza is concerning.
This is a reminder of several incidents over the past year that also raise questions. On October 20, 2023, Hamas released two American women who it had held hostage for two weeks. Nothing more was heard about this story or why it happened how and when it did. Clearly, Hamas had decided to release two Americans. Why not the others? Why not more discussions about their status at the time? Days later Hamas released two elderly women as well. Nothing more was ever revealed about these two hostage releases in October.
This begs the question of why the Bibas children were not released at that time. They were the most vulnerable of the hostages because one was a baby and one a toddler. There are a lot of questions now about why more wasn’t done to pressure Hamas for basic details on the hostages.
In January, reports circulated that Qatar and France had brokered a deal to deliver medical aid to 45 hostages in Gaza. Nothing was done to confirm whether the aid reached the hostages.
Why? Why is it that systematically since October 7 there has been a kind of collective shrug about basic details about the hostages, details that would have helped families who have been waiting for information?
No pressure from the US, no pressure from Doha, and it’s not clear if there is pressure from Israel. Since the decision to shift focus from Gaza to fighting Hezbollah, Hamas has felt free rein to run central Gaza and continue its rule.
