Jonathan S. Tobin: Lebanon proves President Trump right on the Middle East
Lebanese demonstrators are now calling for throwing out all of their leaders. But there is no formula for governing this country that would satisfy any of these warring tribes.Richard Goldberg: How the Middle East Can Hedge Against a Biden Presidency
The world wants to help the Lebanese recover from the port disaster. But the question we should be asking is whether there is anything the West can do to change these countries. The answer is no.
Over the last few decades, both the United States and Israel have been dragged into Lebanon’s civil wars in ways that didn’t benefit anyone. The same is true in Syria, where Washington has fought ISIS and Jerusalem seeks to fend off incursions by Iran and Hezbollah.
Some outsiders might be tempted to try to “fix” Lebanon by helping impose a state modeled on modern and democratic norms, rather than its current tribal and sectarian format. As the United States proved in Iraq, anyone who takes on such a task is ignoring history and common sense and will pay for the hubris in blood and treasure.
Also unfortunately, Lebanon, like Syria and Iraq, is a breeding ground for terrorism. We will have to deter those baddies by other means, never again by entangling ourselves in these nations’ broken political lives. We can wish young, aspirational democrats well as they try to fix their countries — but they should do it on their own.
Anyone who criticizes Trump’s refusal, backed by most Americans, to contemplate more military involvement isn’t being realistic.
Pure isolationism isn’t the answer, of course. The United States should support Israel’s efforts to ensure that violence in Lebanon and Syria doesn’t spread. And the West should, as Trump has done, continue sanctioning and isolating Iran, to prevent it from creating more mischief. Sensible people should also worry about creating a Palestinian state that would be just as much of a disaster as Lebanon or Syria.
Americans have long labored under the delusion that we can heal the Middle East. But the internecine slaughter in Syria and Iraq and the catastrophe that is Lebanon should remind us that the only sensible approach is to stop letting ourselves get dragged into the region’s bloodstained sands.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are in for a rude awakening if former Vice President Joe Biden defeats President Donald Trump in November and Democrats take control of the U.S. Senate in addition to the House. The only thing that might save them: normalizing relations with Israel.The Palestinian War on History
For now, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi seem preoccupied with whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will declare sovereignty over roughly 30 percent of the West Bank, consistent with the Trump peace plan proposal. The UAE ambassador to Washington, Yousef al Otaiba, even penned a column for a leading Israeli newspaper warning that a sovereignty declaration would be a setback for Israeli-Gulf ties. Somehow, while President Trump's decisions to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, move the American embassy there and defund the UN agency for Palestinian refugees merited little more than pro forma foreign ministry press releases, the Emiratis are waging a full (royal) court press to stop Israel from asserting sovereignty over a slice of the West Bank.
With only a few months left until the November presidential election, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and Emirati Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) might need to readjust their priorities. Without peace treaties with Israel, their support in Washington could soon collapse. Wasting time and energy fighting an Israeli sovereignty declaration in the West Bank—which may not even happen—will not insulate them from a Democratic takeover next January.
A Biden administration will be tempted to re-enter the Iran nuclear deal, returning to the Obama-era strategy of seeking a balance of power between the Islamic Republic and its Sunni Arab neighbors. The revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (i.e., Iran nuclear deal) would be compounded by congressional efforts to cut off arms sales to the Gulf—or condition them on Saudi Arabia and the UAE ending all operations in Yemen and ending their embargo on Qatar. A renewed push for sanctions on Saudi leaders in response to the killing of Jamal Khashoggi is also likely. Biden and his advisors would face enormous political pressure to acquiesce from the more radically pro-Iran, anti-Gulf faction of the Democratic Party.
Meanwhile, with Iran once again flush with cash from U.S. sanctions relief and importing advanced conventional arms from Russia and China, MBS and MBZ will have only one true ally in the Middle East: the State of Israel. Sovereignty questions in a strip of land more than 1,000 miles away will seem irrelevant when compared to an existential struggle for survival in a region where the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism seeks hegemony.
"Every person, irrespective of whether or not they are disabled, should have the opportunity to visit the tomb, which is an important Jewish heritage site... The tomb belongs to us after Abraham bought it with his own money 3,800 years ago." — Former Israeli Defense Minister Naftali Bennett.
These Palestinian leaders continue to deny any Jewish connection to the holy site on the pretext that it belongs exclusively to Muslims. Palestinian Authority Foreign Minister Riad Malki has condemned the elevator plan as an Israeli "war crime" and a "violation of international law."
The winners? The Iran-backed Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, who dream of extending their control from the Gaza Strip to the West Bank. This dream, thanks to the lawless and lethal regime of the Palestinian Authority -- funded by the West -- appears closer than ever.