Elder Of Ziyon - Israel News

Friday, September 07, 2012

CSIS releases report on scenarios for attacking Iran

The Center for Strategic and International studies just released a report detailing a number of scenarios of either the US or Israel attacking Iran's nuclear facilities. Here's the executive summary:

• Over the past couple of months, speculation about a U.S. or Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities has made headlines around the globe. This report addresses how the U.S. could take the lead in carrying out a preventive Military Strike against Iran If all peaceful options have been exhausted and Iran has left no other means to convince it to stop or change its course in pursuing nuclear weapons . It also examines how the US could provide a defense umbrella against any Iranian air and missile retaliation that would be aimed at U.S. military targets and allies in the region, in particular the GCC states.

• A key question arises is what should the objectives of a military strike be? To halt the Iranian nuclear program? To set it back five years or for one year? This criteria is the key to defining the force allocation required to achieve a successful mission against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

• The study shows that the initial strike should be against key Iranian nuclear enrichment and research facilities, ballistic missile basis located around the country, numerous mobile ballistic missile launchers dispersed around Iran and main ballistic missile production facilities. At the same time, it shows that the payloads required to hit underground enrichment facilities with a high level of damage, to carry out the scale of initial and follow-up attacks, and providing resources such as near real time intelligence required to detect and destroy other potentially lethal Iranian military weapons, for instance ballistic missiles that could be used in a retaliation, can only be carried out by the United States.

• An initial U.S. strike will require a large force allocation consisting of Defensive Counterair and Offensive Counterair Operations, such as the main Bomber Force, the Suppression of Enemy Air Defense System, Escort aircraft for the protection of the Bombers, Electronic Warfare for detection and jamming purposes, Fighter Sweep and Combat Air Patrol to counter any air retaliation by Iran.

• While such first strike will try to be as effective as possible, the U.S. would be the only country that has the air power, support capability, and mix of sea-air forces in the Gulf to continue a sustained campaign over a period of time and restrike after an initial battle damage assessment it is found that further strike sorties are required.

Several other key points are made in the analysis:

• The aging Iranian airforce will definitely be no match against the U.S. and even the GCC airforces. In addition the Iranian Air Defense systems do not have the Command Control Communications and Intelligence required to detect, track and shoot down the US advanced military combat aircraft. However U.S. planners will definitely take all operational planning precautions necessary to ensure that both the Iranian Airforce and Air Defense system are ineffective and all U.S. combat aircraft have a high probability of survival throughout.

• U.S. officials are working with allies in the Gulf to develop the capability to defeat the threat Iran poses to the Gulf, allied territory, and the flow of trade and energy exports GCC countries worry that during a crisis, Iran could try to prevent their ships from traversing the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off their oil export business.

• The only effective counter-strike capability Iran has other than asymmetric warfare in the Gulf, and the use of proxies like Hezbollah, is their Ballistic Missile Force. A massive retaliation strike with whatever launching sites that have survived the U.S. first strike could still cause quite a considerable damage to the GCC states, in energy, finance and various other critical infrastructure centers.

• The U.S. is currently involved in building a Defensive Shield against a massive Iranian Ballistic Missile attack targeted at the GCC states. The defensive shield consists of a Multi-Tier Ballistic Missile Defense System consisting of Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) and Patriot Advanced Capability, PAC-3, missile systems supported with the most advanced Radar and Command and Control facilities.

• Ballistic missile defense (BMD) systems have been provided to Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Oman, as well as stationing Aegis-equipped warships in the waters of the Arabian Gulf. The U.S. has been developing an integrated early warning radar system across the GCC states that could help U.S. and GCC forces to quickly respond to an Iranian missile attack.

• Israel does not have the capability to carry out preventive strikes that could do more than delay Iran’s efforts for a year or two.

• Finally, the fact that US has the capability to carry out preventive strikes does not mean it should not seek to negotiate an end to the threatening aspects of Iran’s nuclear programs. The brief shows just how dangerous any war in the Gulf could be to the world’s economy – although Iran is more vulnerable than any of its Southern Gulf neighbors.

• The U.S. also needs its Gulf allies as key partners and must consider the “law of unintended consequences.” Preventive military strikes could push the presently volatile middle east region into a war with far reaching global political, military, and economic consequences.

The report gives two scenarios for an Israeli strike. One is a conventional strike using aircraft. the other is using tactical nuclear weapons as the only means to attack the underground facilities.

It is possible that Israel will carry out a strike against Iranian Nuclear Facilities, if the U.S. does not, with the objective of either destroying the program or delaying it for some years. The success of the Strike Mission will be measured by how much of the Enrichment program has it destroyed, or the number of years it has delayed Iranian acquisition of enough Uranium or Plutonium from the Arak reactor to build a nuclear bomb.

• We conclude that a military strike by Israel against Iranian Nuclear Facilities is possible and the optimum route would be along the Syrian-Turkish border then over a small portion of Iraq then into Iran, and back the same route. However, the number of aircraft required, refueling along the way and getting to the targets without being detected or intercepted would be complex and high risk and would lack any assurances that the overall mission will have a high success rate
.
• The U.S. would certainly be perceived as being a part of the conspiracy and having assisted and given Israel the green light, whether it did or had no part in it whatsoever. This would undermine the U.S. objectives in increasing stability in the region and bringing about a peaceful solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict. It will also harm for a very long period of time relations between the U.S. and its close regional allies.

• Another scenario is in using Low Yield Earth Penetrating Nuclear Weapons as a substitute for conventional weapons to attack deeply buried nuclear facilities in Iran. Some believe that these are the only weapons that can destroy targets deep underground or in tunnels.

• The U.S. would not allow any other country, even a strong ally such as Israel, to use them, unless another country had used nuclear weapons against the U.S. and its allies.

• A strike by Israel on Iran will give rise to regional instability and conflict as well as terrorism. The regional security consequences will be catastrophic.

Their conventional scenario estimates a strike force of some 95 planes.

In essence over 25% of the high end combat aircraft of Israeli Airforce and 100% of the Tankers will have to be allocated for this mission.

• One strike would not necessarily be enough to achieve the mission objectives. Strike aircraft need to return for another strike. This would put a heavy burden on the Israeli Airforce.

• We can conclude that a military strike by the Israeli Airforce against Iranian Nuclear Facilities is possible, however, it would be complex and high risk in the operational level and would lack any assurances of a high mission success rate.

• Iranian retaliation will have a devastating regional consequences. U.S. expects Israel to be responsible and not to carry out such a strike.

• Air to ground strike mission can be difficult to implement and would involve some risks. Flying on a very tight route, practically hugging the Turkish-Syrian borders. Aerial refueling along the way and avoid being detected by Turkey, Syria and the U.S. Flying down to S/L when in Iranian territory, avoid being detected by flying low and applying ECM all the way. If detected by Iranian air defense the strike formation should be prepared to encounter interceptors, and to encountering firing of
ground based SAMs.

It is a very interesting, if sobering, report.

(h/t Challah Hu Akbar)

Those Egyptian checkpoints in the Sinai

From Egypt Independent:

Anonymous gunmen attacked the Rayesa checkpoint outside Arish in Sinai on Friday morning, the 34th such attack in the last 19 months.

Security forces exchanged fire with the assailants, who fled. There were no injuries.

The troops combed the surrounding areas, in addition to inspecting the passing cars and questioning their occupants.

Rayesa checkpoint has been attacked 34 times since the beginning of the 25 January revolution, most recently on 31 August.

The checkpoint is located on the international road leading to Rafah at the east entrance of Arish. It is manned by joint forces of the police and Armed Forces.

A number of checkpoints in Sinai were targeted in August. Egyptian authorities have speculated that radical groups are behind these attacks.

Checkpoints? You mean, where the military checks to make sure that people aren't transporting weapons and explosives?

Aren't they, like, violations of international humanitarian law or UN resolutions or something?

I was so sure that checkpoints are illegal and immoral. Terrorists must have the right to freely travel to their intended targets. It's a human right. And people being forced to add extra minutes to their trips in order for their cars to be checked for guns and explosives is a heinous crime. I know I've read that somewhere.

Ah - here's one place, lightly edited:

Checkpoints: A Violation of Human Rights
Sky McLaughlin

...The very concept of the checkpoint itself stands in gross violation of the human rights of the people. Each human being should be guaranteed the right to emotional and psychological health and security. However the symbolism of these checkpoints has severe psychological repercussions on the people. The implication is that citizens are entirely too dangerous and evil to be allowed the freedom of movement in their own country, or their neighbour’s. The damaging impacts on the psyche, not to mention self-esteem, particularly of young people, are tremendous.

Freedom of movement and the right to physical safety are just two of the fundamental human rights violated by the checkpoints. People are not free to travel from region to region in their own country, and this has far-reaching effects on the relations of the family. Families are split and divided, and cannot join together to provide emotional support and comfort during this time of tragedy and suffering. Fear has become a permanent part of their psyche, as they constantly worry about the time when there may be an emergency in their family, whom they cannot reach in time.

See? I knew that human rights activists were against all checkpoints, everywhere.

Good thing those activists in Egypt are attacking them by gunfire. They are the true human rights defenders.

The difference on Iran between the two parties' platforms

This week I posted a side-by-side comparison between the Democratic and Republican platforms' positions on the Middle East.

The most important difference between the two is not rhetoric about Jerusalem or the peace process. It is not even the very obvious difference between how they discuss the upheavals in the Arab world.

The critical difference between the two is a single word.

The Democrats say "The President is committed to using all instruments of national power to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons."

The Republicans say "Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons capability threatens America, Israel, and the world. … America must lead the effort to prevent Iran from building and possessing nuclear weapons capability.

There is a huge distinction between Iran acquiring nuclear weapons and it possessing nuclear weapons capability. As I have reported, a recent AP article says:

Iran could be shaping its nuclear ambitions after Japan, which has the full scope of nuclear technology - including the presumed ability to produce warhead-grade material - but has stopped short of actually producing a weapon. It creates, in effect, a de facto nuclear power with all the parts but just not pieced together....Following Japan's path would allow Iran to push their nuclear technology to the limit while being able to claim it has adhered to its international pledge not to develop a bomb.

Yesterday, evidence came out that the Obama administration's "red line" might very well be right at the last screw before a bomb is physically built. Jeffrey Goldberg has the text of a must-read radio interview with Mike Rogers who witnessed the meeting between Netanyahu and US Ambassador Shapiro that reportedly turned into a shouting match. Netanyahu was asking for the US to define what it considers "red lines" for Iran, and the US is refusing to do so - indicating that the "red line" really might be as late as the last screw. And Rogers, the Republican chair of the House Intelligence Committee, seems to share Netanyahu's frustration:

Rogers went on to describe what he understands to be the Israeli frustration, and, apparently, his frustration, with the impact of sanctions: "Here's the problem. ....I support the sanctions. But if you're going to have a hammer you have to have an anvil. You have to have at least a credible threat of a military option. So it's having an effect, yes, it's having an effect on the Iranian economy. It is not impacting their race on enrichment and other things, and that's very very clear." He went on, "I think the Israeli position is, 'Hey, listen, you've got to tell us -- I mean, if you want us to wait' -- and that's what this Administration's been saying, you've gotta wait, you've gotta wait, you've gotta wai -- got that -- 'but then you've gotta tell us when is the red line so we can make our own decisions about should we or shouldn't we stop this particular program."

And Rogers had harsh words for the Administration, which he says has made it very clear to the Israelis what they shouldn't do, but hasn't delivered a message to the Iranians with the same clarity: "There's a lot of pieces in play on this. But I think again, their frustration is that the Administration hasn't made it very clea -- they've made it very clear to Israel in a public way that they shouldn't do it, but haven't made it very clear to Iran in a public way that there will be tougher action, which could include -- and I argue peace through strength, so you just need to let them understand that that's an option so we can deter them from their program. And right now the Israelis don't' believe that the Administration is serious when they say that all options are on the table, and more importantly neither do the Iranians. That's why the program is progressing."

This single word, "capability," is not just a difference between platforms - it is a chasm.

The real problem is that all of the "capability" red lines might very well be crossed too soon for the differences between Republicans and Democrats to practically matter.

Mondoweiss' assistant editor Allison Deger has posted this on the site:

The open letter below was posted anonymously the online forum Paste Bin, on September 3, 2012. I verified the authenticity with Stanley L. Cohen Esq. who indicated Hanneya drafted the statement with the intent of Cohen reading the letter in Charlotte, North Carolina, to Occupy Charlotte on Sunday, September 2, 2012, one night before the Democratic National Convention. Due to extenuating circumstances, Cohen did not read the letter.

The letter starts off and ends this way:

To the Bradley Manning Peace Camp at the Democratic Party Convention in North Carolina:

I wish that I could be with you today to read these words to you myself, but obviously I cannot, as I remain unwelcome in the United States. Instead I have asked my friend of many years Stanley Cohen to deliver this message of solidarity on my behalf.

I send the heartfelt greetings of the Palestinian people, as we salute you in your fight against the American military machine, against its secrets and lies, and against its vision of an American world order maintained through coercion and control. You bring your protest straight to the heart of the political system, there in Charlotte, and we are there with you in spirit, we Occupy Charlotte with you!
[...]

The American political process is now a global process—and we watch it from our corner of the world, waiting for some sign of change at the top. But meanwhile, it is the growing force from below that gives us hope. This movement is a global movement--our numbers are vast, we are legion, and we do not forget.

Thank you.

Ismail Hanneya
Prime Minister

Gaza
September 1, 2012

Whether the letter is legitimate or not, we have seen Hamas seeks to use the radical Left as its partner in destroying Israel. Either way, the MW loonies believe it is true. This incident shows that not only do the Leftists happily accept Hamas' immoral support, but Mondoweiss - without so much as a hint of a disclaimer - actively acts as Hamas' message boy!

The comments are almost tearfully worshipful and thankful that MW is spreading Haniyeh's wisdom to the West. (One member and Hamas groupie, Joe Catron, who took the photo of Haniyeh that accompanies the article, actually says that Hamas "includes a liberal element" and only knee-jerk Zionists consider it terrorist.)

To Mondoweiss, Israel is the enemy that must be destroyed and Hamas is the friend who must be embraced.

Meanwhile, every day Hamas' own official Al Qassam Martyrs' Brigades website has articles supporting terror attacks against civilians and fondly remembering past attacks, complete with photos of grieving Israelis and coffins of Jewish victims of Hamas.

(h/t Max)

Prominent Egyptian cleric issues fatwa to ban Jews from holy sites in Muslim countries

Dr. Abdul Hamid al-Atrash, the head of the Fatwa Committee of Al Azhar in Egypt, has issued a ruling that Arabs may ban Jews from visiting their holy sites in Arab lands.

He was asked the question by the El Balad newspaper.

Al-Atrash says that as long as Muslims cannot travel to Jerusalem while it is in Jewish hands, then Muslims have the right to bar Jews from visiting their own holy places, under the Islamic concept of "reciprocity." Therefore, he says, Egyptian authorities have the right to ban Jews from going to the Alexandria synagogue on Rosh Hashanah.

He backed up his opinion with a Koranic verse, "Glory be to Allah, His Prophet and the believers, but the hypocrites know not." Also, he used a Hadith that says "Who allowed himself to be humiliated is not one of us," a saying that explains a lot. Apparently, Jews visiting Jewish holy sites is a humiliation for Muslims.

It is worth mentioning that there is nothing stopping most Muslims from visiting Jerusalem, via Jordan. A few months ago the Mufti of Egypt, Ali Gomaa, visited the Al Aqsa Mosque, and no Israeli stopped him. The only people upset over this were Muslims, including the Mufti of Jerusalem who declared it to be forbidden for Muslims to visit the city.

Two years ago, influential Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi, chairman of the International Union for Muslim Scholars, likewise issued a fatwa against Muslims visiting Jerusalem.

So it is the Muslims who are banning Muslims from visiting holy sites in Israel- not Jews. If Israel doesn't believe that the visitor is a potential threat, he or she can come and visit anytime.

That sort of ruins the logic of the fatwa.

However, I have a feeling that the method of coming to that ruiing was not quite as rigorous and objective as legal rulings are supposed to be. It is almost like he knew what he would rule and only found textual "proofs" afterwards.

Lots of yummy, fat-free Thursday links

From Ian:

JPost Editorial The PA’s electricity tab

The government cannot keep playing nice to avoid damaging the national image at the expense of the economy.
To then expect that state to keep footing PA bills is akin to accepting extortion. The punishment with which Israel is threatened is another campaign of vilification if it dares refuse to bankroll Ramallah.
But the PA needs to be taught that it cannot be the international community’s whining child who expects everything but isn’t duty bound to behave in a minimally honorable fashion.

Democratic Convention disasters prove Obama’s party cannot lead on Middle East peace process

The DNC controversy has proved it cannot be trusted on matters concerning Israel and the Middle East peace process
"Following the decision, the convention floor echoed with boos and jeers, a reflection that in reality, the Democratic Party is unable to decide either way as to whether it remains a strong ally of Israel that believes in Jerusalem as its capital – or whether they are hedging their bets to placate a large number of Democratic Party voters who are either pro-Palestinian, anti-Israel, or simply unsympathetic to the Jewish state."

Terra Incognita: The re-Islamification of Beersheba

The manufactured controversy over a wine festival is part of increasingly chauvinistic power politics sweeping the Negev’s Beduin community.

Israel seeks to counterbalance Palestinian claims with refugee stories of its own

Advocacy project ostensibly aims at winning recompense for Jews who fled Arab rule at time Israel was established.

[This has been getting lots of angry attention in Arabic media - EoZ]

Hamas: Israeli Jews should return to their Arab countries of origin

Islamists blast Foreign Ministry initiative to win recompense for Jews who fled Arab rule when Israel was established.

US, Egypt Conducting Joint Military Exercises

U.S. planes landed in Egypt Tuesday for a joint exercise, the first since the fall of Hosni Mubarak.

The End of US-Israel Strategic Cooperation?

Mark 2012, however, as the year the Obama administration took its most overt steps yet to tell the Arab and Muslim World the the US was severable from Israel. How much of what the US and Israel developed over the years was shared with countries overtly hostile to Israel?

IDF fires at terrorists attempting to place bomb on Gaza border fence

Palestinian health official reports three dead; three members of Gaza rocket-launch cell killed overnight.

Iran, Hezbollah establish training base in Nicaragua

Trainees reportedly planning retaliatory attacks against US, Israeli targets in event of military strike on Iran.

Germany marks 40 years since Munich massacre

Bavarian state government held memorial services in Munich to remember the murder of 11
Israelis at 1972 Olympics.

German intelligence agency bars pro-Israel event

The authorities have "criminalized de facto engagement for Israel," journalist says after university disallows event.
"According to a statement on the website of the German-Israeli friendship group at the University of Rostock, a range of student and labor union groups joined in the German- Israel Friendship Society protest, including the main student organization, AStA Rostock, the GEW teachers’ union at the university, and the young socialists of the SPD (Jusos), as well as the Green Party student group, the liberal group and the university Pirate Party organization.
The pro-Israel lecture was later held at an off-campus location without any disturbances."

Stand With Us:

Once in a Lifetime HD selects and invites major Instagram users on an extraordinary journey across Israel this September. They will be introduced to our small country's tremendous variety of landscapes, cuisine and nightlife, as well as its multicultural society and culture.

Israel to aid Bihar's development bid

Throwing light on Indo-Israeli relations, Ushpiz said, "We are celebrating the 20th anniversary of our rich and historic relations (since the opening of Israeli embassy in India), which is not only based on values but on sharing. When we had come here in 1992, the volume of trade was about $200 million which has now increased to more than $5 billion. We also focus on research and development and have government to government channel with regard to many activities."

Cistern dated to First Temple period found in Jerusalem

Discovery of large man-made reservoir next to the Temple Mount shows city did not solely rely on the Gihon Spring for its water 2,500 years ago.

Also:

Orly

The bizarre story of Seif Gaddafi's Israeli former girlfriend and her appeal to Tony Blair

High school Israel advocates to train at SDSU, Stanford

BlueStar, a San Francisco-based Israel Advocacy organization, has scheduled College Stay three-day retreats for high school students. The weekend-long program was developed to help transform Jewish teens into powerful pro-Israel advocates, spokespeople and opinion leaders - before they encounter anti-Israel challenges at college. Teens will spend the weekend with current college students and get an inside look at Jewish life on campus at San Diego State University (October 12-14, 2012), and Stanford University (October 26-28, 2012).

Anti-semitism alive and well in Romania

Dan Sova, a 39 year old Romanian lawyer and Social Democrat, who has been a Senator in the Parliament since 2008, was promoted to the position of Minister for Parliamentary Relations by the Prime Minister Victor Ponta on August 6 after saying on a television broadcast on March 5, that "no Jew suffered on Romanian territory (during the Holocaust) thanks to Marshal Antonescu." Two days later Sova was removed "temporarily" from office as speaker of his political party. He has also said that "only 24 Jews were killed during the Iasi pogrom (of June 28-29, 1941) by the German army."

The actions of the Romanian regime in the Holocaust led to the deaths, not of 24 Jews, but a number estimated to be between 280,000 and 380,000 Romanian Jews -- most likely the larger number.

(h/t Yoel, Ellen)

Hanan Ashrawi's lies about Jewish refugees in HuffPo

Hanan Ashrawi in the Huffington Post is furiously trying to spin Israel's initiative to highlight Jewish refugees from Arab countries. as usual, she is not above lying:

In an Arabic-language article published last week, I argued that Israel's new campaign to artificially equate Palestinian refugees and Jews who either immigrated or fled to Israel from Arab states relies on a forced and false analogy. Zionist ideology contradicts the notion that these Israeli Jews are refugees, and six decades of Israeli policy demonstrate Israel's complete disregard for Palestinian refugee rights. Israel's manipulative strategy is part of a public relations campaign that is both cynical and hypocritical.

At the very core of Zionist ideology is the idea that Israel is the homeland of the Jewish people. If this is the case, and Jews living in Israel are citizens of their singular national homeland, then the state cannot consider them refugees -- they cannot be returnees to Israel and refugees from another homeland at the same time. Demanding that the international community treat Jewish immigrants as refugees is therefore an act of "dezionization." If, however, they are refugees and Israel is not their homeland, then their primary right is the right to return.

This is unadulterated garbage.

The definition of "refugee" is quite clear, and comes from the Refugee Convention:

The 1951 Refugee Convention establishing UNHCR spells out that a refugee is someone who "owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality, and is unable to, or owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country."

Of course Jews who fled Arab countries are refugees - because they fit the legal definition. And of course they do not want to return, because of their quite well-founded fear of persecution, not to mention that they came to a country that welcomed them.

Ashrawi's defining refugees' primary right to "return" is her pathetic attempt to fit all refugees under the umbrella of the bizarre, unique definition that Palestinian Arabs give themselves. This is a definition that is quite at odds with the Refugee Convention definition, although it added what it thought was a temporary exclusion for Palestinian Arabs when it was written. Thanks to people like Ashrawi, who will do everything possible to keep the Palestinian Arabs in the category of "refugees" forever - including lobbying against their becoming citizens of the countries that they are born in - that exception is still there.

And she calls Israel's definition of "refugee" - the same one the UN uses - "cynical!"

(Plus, if you think that Ashrawi really cares about "dezionization," I have a "refugee camp" for sale at a good price....)

UPDATE: While HuffPo bans me - I'm really not sure why - someone else pasted my post as a talkback to the article, thanks.

So this is what Arabs are surfing for....

When an older post of mine gets a steady number of hits every day, I get curious as to why.

Usually my posts get a few hundred views and then quickly drop off within a couple of days. But ever since I posted it in June, my video of "Arab cartoons of the Six Day War (VIDEO)" has been continuously getting 15-20 hits a day, mostly from Arab countries. A little research shows that they are finding it from search engines.

Most of these English-challenged people are doing a Google search for "Arab six videos."

Too bad; they are just looking for some "six" - and end up here.

Decent report on Rafah tunnels in Al Ahram

Al Ahram (Egypt) has a wide-ranging article about the tunnels on the Egypt-Gaza border that has some interesting tidbits:

"Bedouins have secret escape routes via the tunnels, which are built to strategically avoid checkpoints," suggested Arish resident Mohamed Sabry.

"There are around 1,200 tunnels in which all types of illegal activities occur. Government officials from all sides are involved: Israeli, Egyptian and Palestinian," asserted Political sociologist Said Sadek.

"The tunnels, of which around 300 are functioning, have enabled Bedouin and government officials on all sides to accrue fortunes. Many own an abundance of luxury items," Ahmed Abu Deraa, a local Bedouin journalist from Sheikh Zuweid, told Ahram Online.

His statement was visibly confirmed by the luxury cars and villas displayed in the north Sinai towns and in the distant Gaza landscape.

Sinai expert Mohamed Fadel Fahmy, who has visited the tunnels, describes how Bedouins often form an alliance, collecting funds to build tunnels that can cost around $100,000 each. Such expenses are soon returned, according to Fahmy, given the high returns on smuggling various materials.

"Bedouin sources suggest human trafficking is worth around $50 per person; olives cost about $100 per carton. Animals, such as a tiger or small elephant for the Gaza zoo, cost as much as $20,000," he stated, while acknowledging that the Bedouins he liaised with refuse to permit hostages or suicide bombers through the tunnels. Nonetheless, sending marijuana to Israel, which sells at double the price, is common practice.

"Tunnel owners told me Hamas gets $1,000 tax on each car that goes through the tunnels. The buyer pays me $5,000 a car, or around $8,000 for a big truck, as tunnel rent money, in addition to the car's price," claimed Fahmy.

Arms are one of the most lucrative commodities traded in the clandestine desert veins, associated with events such as the Palestinian intifada in 2000.

The deadly trade was subsequently revived following the Arab uprisings. Sheikh Zuweid is known as a hub for exporting weapons to Gaza, and Al-Hasna and Nakhl are markets for local weapons, where tribes buy and compete.

Many Sinai locals blame Mubarak-era security forces for introducing tribes to the lucrative arms trade, which has led to dwindling security.

"They were the first to introduce the Bedouins to arms trafficking," stressed young activist Islam Qwedar, who, alongside Mohamed Ibrahim Hamad, the son of a tribal leader in Bir Al-Abd. He underlines their preoccupation with the recent influx of weapons from Libya and the resultant effects on national and regional security.

Experts maintain missiles being traded in Sinai's tunnels and subsequently hoarded are more advanced than SAM, Fateh and Grad missiles, which can be used for large-scale operations. In response, Israel's Begin-Sadat Centre drafted a plan for the partial reoccupation of the border zone and intervention in Sinai, which has been ruled out – for the time being – by the right-wing Netanyahu government.

...Observers suggest the tunnels vary in size and quality, often ranging between 100 metres in length to a few kilometres. Some, termed "five star tunnels," allow travellers to travel by car.

"I can organise a trip for you to Gaza by car in the finest tunnel; you will be there within minutes," said El-Nahal, describing superior tunnels as "well lit and ventilated" with some even permitting mobile phone use.

Read the whole thing.

Those "Talmudic rituals" again

From Kuwait's KUNA news agency:

Groups of Jewish extremists stormed the Al Aqsa Mosque today in occupied Jerusalem and performed Talmudic rituals.

Local radio stations today said that "Likud party member Moshe Feiglin stormed the Al Aqsa Mosque this morning, accompanied by a group of settlers."

The groups stormed the mosque amid tight security from the police and the occupation forces explaining that they had tried to perform some Talmudic rituals.

The radio stations said that other groups were able to storm the mosque across Dung Gate protected by Israeli police and wandered in the mosque and led Talmudic rituals.

Sources indicated that the occupation is trying by imposing its presence almost daily in Al Aqsa and attempt to impose a division of the Al Aqsa Mosque between Muslims and Jews.

Counting the headline, that's four mentions of "Talmudic rituals" in a single article - a new record!

King Abdullah views Israel as Jordan's "key regional ally"

From the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs (Canada):

On Sunday, September 2, 2012, the national leadership of the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs met with King Abdullah of Jordan as well as his Foreign Minister, Nasser Judeh.

The initiative stemmed from a direct invitation from the Jordanian monarch, and was supported by both Canadian and Israeli political leadership.

King Abdullah engaged in a very open discussion about the challenges in the region – and in particular, those faced by Jordan. He noted that Jordan was carrying the economic brunt of the conflict in Syria. In particular, Jordan has been overwhelmed with almost 200,000 refugees, with an additional 100,000 expected. The cost – housing, food, school and medical care – is enormous and burdens an economy already strapped for cash, energy and water. We were asked to convey the message that Jordan requires immediate and increased foreign aid and investment in order to meet this challenge.

Of particular note was the King’s acknowledgment that Israel – which he views as Jordan’s key regional ally – has been highly responsive to his requests in the context of efforts to bring about a resumption of direct talks between Israel and the PA. King Abdullah further expressed the belief that achieving peace on the Israel-Palestinian front will make immeasurably easier the task of confronting other – even existential – challenges facing the region, including the ability to garner support from other Arab nations in relation to the Iranian nuclear threat.

Jordanian media and Arutz-7 briefly reported on the meeting, but none mentioned how Abdullah characterized Israel as Jordan's key regional ally. It is almost certainly true, especially with Islamists taking over Middle East/North African nations, but it is very surprising that he would say it out loud.

It is also interesting that Abdullah asks a Jewish group to help him get money for the Syrian refugees.

(h/t Josh)

Terrorist supporters endorse hypocritical UN "Right to Peace" resolution

From UN Watch:

The U.N. Human Rights Council's recent 20th session saw the police state of Communist Cuba, a key backer of the Assad regime, successfully introduce a resolution for “the Right to Peace.”

Endorsed by such peace-loving states as Sudan, Belarus, China, Sri Lanka, Iran, North Korea—even Syria — the resolution, according to journalist Joel Brinkley, offers “pointless blather” that “will beguile you so you won’t notice on page six that they also want the U.N. to endorse the idea that ‘all peoples and individuals have the right to resist and oppose oppressive colonial, foreign occupation.’ ”

In other words, the U.N. legitimized the terminology used by Middle East terrorists to kill Americans and Israelis. The political culture of the council is such that the U.S. was the only one of 47 nations to vote no.

UN Watch took the floor during the meeting to expose the council's Orwellian actions and language.

The draft resolution that includes the language of terrorists to justify attacking civilians is here.

Article 7 indeed states "All peoples and individuals have the right to resist and oppose oppressive colonial, foreign occupation." The first clause of course means that shooting rockets at Israeli civilians or blowing up buses is OK, making the entire resolution a farce. (Especially since the UN officially says that Gaza is still "occupied." against all reason and contradicting its own definitions elsewhere.)

Which means it was a typical, hypocritical day at the UN.

Abbas hanging Fayyad out to dry?

I noted yesterday that the protests that have been spreading throughout the West Bank all week have been directed at PA prime minister Fayyad.

Mahmoud Abbas decided to adopt survival tactics and yesterday said that he supports the protesters and their goals:

President Mahmoud Abbas said Wednesday that the "Palestinian Spring" had begun, as Palestinians took to the streets across the West Bank in protest over rising prices.

"The Palestinian spring has begun, and we are in line with what the people say and what they want," Abbas said, addressing a meeting of Arab League foreign ministers in Cairo.

The president said the protesters' demands to reduce costs of basic goods and for regular payment of salaries were "right and fair."

"Hunger is disloyal," Abbas said, quoting a Palestinian proverb reflecting that hungry people thought only of their need for food. "We are trying to do what we can do to reduce prices."

One reason he is jumping on this bandwagon can be inferred from this:

"We are here to say to the government enough is enough … We want a government which lives just as its people live eating what the people eat," Khalid, a protester, told Ma'an.

There was a recent report that Abbas owns some $8 million worth of land and property in Jordan.

In Abbas' full speech to the Arab League meeting, he spoke about a lot of topics with his usual lies - blaming Israel for the absence of negotiations, and claiming that Hamas has embraced non-violent resistance, for example.

But in his entire speech, he never said a word about supporting his handpicked prime minister!

It appears that Abbas is trying to distance himself from Fayyad, as Fayyad scrambles to survive himself. Fayyad even agreed to a debate with one of the leaders of the protests, which is about as close to desperate as one can get.

Fayyad, who is not a Fatah member, has been under attack from the start from both Hamas and Fatah. To survive, he has been forced to make Fatah-style outlandish statements (such as "Jesus was a Palestinian.") . Up until now Abbas has shielded him, mostly because the West likes Fayyad and he represents the only chance for the PA to act like a responsible government rather than a whining welfare quasi-state.

This time, though, it looks like Fayyad does not have any support at all.

Too bad, Tom Friedman. You are wrong again.

PalArab "experts" no better than Western pundits

Palestine Today interviews "experts" on Israeli affairs about Avigdor Lieberman's recent letter to the Quartet saying that Mahmoud Abbas is an obstacle to peace.

Nasser Lahham, one of these so-called "experts," said that Lieberman's remarks are serious, and may be a prelude to get rid of President Abbas in any way, "as happened with the late President Yasser Arafat." His brilliant analysis suggests that since Lieberman's party is important to Netanyahu's coalition, then Netanyahu will do anything to keep him in the government - presumably, including assassinating Abbas.

Samih Shabib, another of the "experts," says that Lieberman's position reflects that of the government. He says Israel is working to undermine Oslo and when Israel increases the number of permits for Palestinian Arabs to work in Israel, it is trying to convince the Arabs that they aren't so evil - and hoping that they get addicted to Israeli salaries so they wouldn't want a state which would mean borders and no more work.

Insidious!

Akram Atallah, yet another supposed expert on Israel, notes that Lieberman has floated his own unilateral withdrawal plan from the territories, and that his plan is consistent with demonizing Abbas. He also says that Abbas might be assassinated the way all Arabs are convinced Arafat was disposed of.

But before making fun of the cluelessness of these "experts," keep in mind that most Western pundits are just as clueless. In both cases, we see psychological projection at play.

The Palestinian Arab pundits project their own violent tendencies onto Israel, assuming that Israelis think the way they do - in this case, telegraphing their desire to kill leaders who are distasteful.

Similarly, Western "experts" project their own mostly-leftist values and attitudes onto the Arabs (and Iranian leaders), assuming that since they themselves want peace so badly and love negotiations, so must everyone else. And their analyses of Israeli attitudes are just as ill-informed.

For example, compare Tony Karon today with Chemi Shalev last week, and see which one understands Israelis and which is a blowhard.

When it comes down to it, at least nine out of ten of the so-called experts on either side are just riffing: trying to get paid for their quasi-expertise and hoping like hell that no one notices that they are frauds.

Yet as long as newspapers and cable networks need to fill up space and time, pseudo-experts will continue to dump their garbage into the minds of their consumers.

How's that Hamas/Fatah unity going?

We are now at 16 months since Fatah and Hamas signed their, um, historic unity agreement, and things couldn't be better!

Hamas has begun a training program for diplomats in the Gaza Strip where it rules, a senior official of the Islamist group said, raising the specter of divisions in the Palestinian national movement spreading to its representation abroad.

Hamas seized Gaza in a 2007 civil war with the Western-backed Fatah party that long dominated Palestinian politics and now rules parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank. But Hamas has hitherto not challenged the PLO, dominated by Fatah and recognized by the United Nations as the Palestinians' sole representative abroad for almost 40 years.

It may be time to end that diplomatic monopoly, Hamas deputy foreign minister Ghazi Hamad suggested Wednesday.

"We have relations with some countries and we need to prepare our cadres and develop the diplomatic skills of staff to deal with those countries on joint projects," he told Reuters.

"The aim of such a step and training is to develop relations with world countries when time and conditions permit," said Hamad.

Hamas looks like it is preparing for the State of Gaza - or even to represent itself as the real government of Palestine!

Then again, this had been tried before - way back in 1948, in an episode of history that the Palestinian Arabs would like to forget.