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Thursday, November 11, 2010

Verified: Iran publishes scenarios where it would use nukes

Last month, NewsMax published an analysis by Ken Timmerman that received no coverage outside some blogs:
For the first time since the expansion of Iran’s nuclear program was exposed in 2002, the Iranian government is dropping the pretense that it is developing nuclear technology purely for peaceful purposes. Iran has developed nuclear war plans to deter U.S. and Israeli aggression and retaliate against it, a top adviser to Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi announced in a strategic analysis.

Defense Ministry analyst Alireza Saeidabadi’s detailed analysis, published last week on a website that Iran’s intelligence ministry runs, examines several scenarios in which Iran could become embroiled in a shooting war with the United States or Israel.

One of the scenarios Iranian military planners must consider is a strategic nuclear U.S. strike on Iran, he writes. If that occurred, Iranian planning documents call for attacks against U.S. interests “on the world stage,” his analysis says.

The Iranian military should “prioritize its air force and ballistic missile fleet” in dealing with a conventional attack from Israel, Saeidabadi writes.

But in the event Israel uses unconventional weapons against Iran, “then Iran should employ a nuclear strategy.”

Similarly, if Iran and the United States get engaged in naval clashes in the Persian Gulf, Iran should “use its sea power for hit-and-run attacks, commando attacks, and use anti-shipping missiles” against U.S. naval vessels.

“But if the United States launches an unconventional attack, Iran needs to respond with a nuclear strategy,” the Iranian defense ministry analyst contends.
I emailed Ken Timmerman to find out the URL of this document, and he responded back with it.

Google Translate for Farsi is not quite as good as Arabic, but the key paragraph is titled "Military Strategy" and it appears that Timmerman's translation is accurate. Here's my attempt to make it in more easily readable English.

Military strategy
This article sharply details a range of regional and international threats faced by Iran, and each military scenario requires a particular military strategy. In a possible confrontation with the Taliban Iran would rely on a ground strategy; for conflict with Israel, Iran would use especially air and missiles [and respond to an] unconventional mode with a nuclear strategy; to confront the Air Force of the United Arabic Emirates requires an air strategy; and for war with America in the Persian Gulf Iran would require naval and air strategies, and under unusual circumstances it would require a nuclear strategy [as well.]

This is significant.