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Sunday, July 16, 2006

Is there a Trojan horse waiting?

As many people have already concluded, Iranian fingerprints are all over this Hizbollah operation. The Iranian missile attack on the Israeli navy boat as well as the Iranian rocket attack this morning in Haifa shows that pretty clearly.

What worries me is that Hezbollah/Iran are not yet showing all their cards. The initial attack was not just a kidnapping, but also an ambush. If this morning's rockets were Fajrs, their range extends far beyond Haifa. And from all accounts, Israel has not managed to kill too many terrorists yet by air.

Almost inevitably, Israel will commit ground troops to this operation. So far, Israel has been caught by surprise at least twice. Iranian war strategists are far more sophisticated than the enemies Israel has faced so far. And the Muslim definition of "victory" at this time is to inflict heavy casualties, not necessarily to win. Iran may also have a completely different agenda in which this entire theatre is a diversion - or bait.

I am no expert, but under these circumstances I hope that Israel is fully aware of what she is getting into before starting the ground war.