Armin Rosen: Can Israel End Iran’s Nuclear Program?
The United States is the only country in the world with the ability to destroy the Fordow nuclear facility quickly from the air, something we could accomplish by dropping a couple 15-ton Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs on the most important and heavily protected piece of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Such a strike would potentially reset the entirety of international arms control.Israel cannot settle for a temporary military win, it must topple the Islamic regime
Since the early 1970s, the world has depended on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) regime, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the U.N. Security Council to maintain a global system that regulates the spread and development of nuclear weapons technology, placing American adversaries like China and Russia at the apex of the arms control system and creating layers of bureaucracy and diplomacy that would-be proliferators have learned to exploit. Pakistan, India, and North Korea have all built nuclear arsenals in defiance of the NPT. Until this week, Iran was very close to joining them.
The global arms control regime never considered Fordow—or, for that matter, Yongbyon, the site of North Korea’s nuclear breakthroughs in the mid-’90s—to be sufficiently serious a threat to global peace to warrant military action. Interestingly enough, the three most recent instances of a country using force to stop an in-progress nuclear program—namely, the Israeli attacks on Iraq, Syria, and Iran—were launched by a state that isn’t a signatory to the NPT. So far the United States has declined to attack North Korean and Iranian nuclear sites. If Donald Trump were to reverse course and bomb Fordow, he would reorient all of global nonproliferation around American strategic judgment and leadership. A successful U.S. attack on Fordow would establish a precedent that a would-be atomic scofflaw couldn’t ignore, with Washington acting as the final bulwark against the spread of nuclear weapons in cases where the NPT regime failed.
But what if Trump decides stanching the tide of nuclear weapons is a job better left to the Chinas and Russias of the world? What if the Israelis are really on their own here? One of the big unknowns of Operation Rising Lion is the extent of the damage Israel has been able to inflict on the Iranian nuclear program so far. Clarifying the issue requires both scientific expertise and deep knowledge of the entire Iranian nuclear-industrial complex.
Almost no one on earth is more qualified to talk about Israel’s progress against the Iranian bomb than the physicist and former IAEA inspector David Albright, founder and president of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS). The institute has already published a detailed summary of the likely impact of Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. I spoke to Albright on Monday afternoon to get an update on where things stand. The conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
Israel’s immediate military actions have, by all accounts, been successful in degrading Tehran’s most critical threats. The three pillars of the regime's threat – its nuclear program, its ballistic missile arsenal, and its global terror network – have been shaken. But to believe these setbacks are permanent is to ignore decades of history. The Islamic Republic’s ambition is resilient. Its nuclear program, though damaged, retains its most crucial asset: the knowledge to build a bomb. The scientists may be gone, the centrifuges shattered, but the blueprints remain. History shows us that after every setback, Tehran has rebuilt its program with greater speed, sophistication, and secrecy. To allow this regime to survive is to guarantee that it will rise from the rubble more determined than ever to cross the nuclear threshold, this time building deeper, more fortified sites, and learning from every Israeli success.Andrew Fox: How This Phase of the Israel-Iran War Will End
Similarly, its ballistic missile program is not merely a strategic asset; it is a core pillar of its regional dominance and its primary threat against the Israeli home front. While stockpiles can be destroyed and launch sites cratered, the industrial base and the engineering expertise remain. The regime’s leaders are driven by ideological and strategic imperative to maintain and advance this capability. They will rebuild, and they will aim for missiles that are faster, more precise, and capable of overwhelming any defense system.
Finally, the regime’s tentacular support for terrorism has been its primary method of waging war for decades. From Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq, this proxy network is Iran’s way of bleeding its enemies without risking a direct state-on-state war. Disrupting weapons convoys and eliminating commanders are necessary tactical actions, but they do not address the source of the cancer. As long as the head of the snake remains in Tehran, it will continue to fund, arm, and direct its legion of proxies to sow chaos and violence on Israel’s borders.
The nature of this regime is not subject to negotiation. It will not be pacified by diplomacy or deterred by temporary military defeats. Its commitment to regional hegemony and the destruction of Israel is woven into its very DNA.
Therefore, Israel faces a stark choice. It can heed the calls for de-escalation, enjoy a fleeting moment of victory, and allow a wounded and vengeful regime to reconstitute its strength for the next, more lethal, round. Or, it can commit to a policy that sees this conflict through to its only logical conclusion: to topple the regime once and for all. It is time to stop trimming the branches of the poison tree and focus on uprooting it entirely.
With that being said, Andrew Fox is fairly optimistic, writing that “this war is won already.” He explains:
Israeli air supremacy has decimated Iran’s military infrastructure. At the same time, Iran’s missile salvos appear to be diminishing in scale daily as the IDF degrades Iranian launcher capability. Missiles have been intercepted for the most part, although they continue to inflict casualties.
Although Iran insists it will not negotiate under fire, its backchannel diplomacy conveys a different narrative. The regime seeks a face-saving way out. This is a surrender.
But the details of a negotiated peace could vary, and in the worst-case scenario, Fox writes,
the regime would frame it as a heroic stand: Iran “resisted Zionist aggression,” inflicted damage on Israel, and emerged intact. State media would highlight Israeli casualties and missile damage as proof of Iranian strength, while portraying international ceasefire efforts as evidence that the world fears Iran’s power. This narrative of resilience could temporarily bolster the regime’s fragile legitimacy.
However, this “victory” would be highly costly and precarious. Israeli strikes have devastated Iran’s military infrastructure, degraded the leadership of the [Revolutionary Guard], and set back its nuclear program, albeit not permanently. The economy, already crippled by sanctions, would be in an even worse condition, with oil facilities, airports, and industrial sites all damaged. Rebuilding would take years.
If Iran does not find a way to reach a deal, Israel will capitalize on its advantage and try to collapse the Iranian regime. The IDF, having achieved air supremacy, will target the regime’s backbone: command bunkers, nuclear facilities, oil infrastructure, and symbols of state authority.
At this stage, there is nothing at all to stop Israel from relentlessly pounding Iran until it surrenders. There seems to be no shortage of ammunition, and American resupply can happen at will. Despite international media attempts to portray a tit-for-tat scenario, it has been an overwhelming victory for Israel. This is not even a debate.
