Seth Mandel: A Turning Point in the U.S.-Iran Shadow War?
The most important metric here is deterrence. If the response hasn’t altered the Houthis’ ability to threaten the sea lanes, then the overall number of missiles we’ve blown up doesn’t matter much. Kurilla seems to speak for a not-insignificant part of the defense establishment that would like permission to, as the Journal puts it, “carry out a broader range of strikes.”Jake Wallis Simons: Israel is about to discover how revolting the Democratic Left have become
“If you tell the military to re-establish freedom of navigation and then you tell them to only be defensive, it isn’t going to work,” one U.S. official told the paper. “It is all about protecting ships without affecting the root cause.”
Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin is flirting with providing the Houthis with antiship cruise missiles, which would certainly make U.S. officials wish the conflict had been solved already. In fact, Russia is leveling that threat as a direct response to U.S. support for Ukraine, more proof that the conflicts cannot be compartmentalized and treated as if in a vacuum. As if to reinforce the point, on Tuesday a Ukrainian security team guarding a cargo ship in the Red Sea appears to have destroyed a Houthi naval drone fired at their vessel.
Behind the Houthis stands Tehran, behind which stands Moscow, behind which stands Beijing. American strategists may not like it, but they cannot pretend otherwise anymore.
That is especially true because the U.S. consulate in Tel Aviv was nearly hit by the Houthi drone and may very well have been its target.
In its response, Israel did not seek to be polite. The strike had to be real. And it had to be attention-getting, because the Houthis do not ultimately act independently. So the air force struck the port of Hodeidah, which is controlled by the Houthis and used as a transit point for Iranian weapons. The strike did extensive damage to the port’s oil storage facilities and halted all ship traffic for a couple of days.
“The Houthis attacked us over 200 times,” Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said. “The first time that they harmed an Israeli citizen, we struck them. And we will do this in any place where it may be required. The blood of Israeli citizens has a price.”
Yet the Tel Aviv attack was also an escalation, a finger in the eye of the U.S. defense establishment, which has been failing to deter the Houthis for months. The fact that the Houthis—and thus, the Iranians—may have targeted the U.S. consulate is not just dangerous but deeply insulting: The Houthis could not possibly be less afraid of the American superpower.
U.S. presidents have long justified their aversion to taking strong retaliatory measures by dismissing the terrorist target as unworthy of the effort and posing no real threat to the United States. But this is Iran shooting at our consulate, and it is Russia threatening to give them advanced antiship missiles. Time to get real.
It is commonly accepted that the reason Biden has been blowing hot and cold on Israel as the November election approached was to placate the progressive wing of his party. With Michigan, a key swing state, home to the largest community of Arab-Americans in the country, and with Rashida Tlaib representing it, the electoral pressure was on.UNRWA is only indispensable to Hamas, not ordinary Palestinians
The Democrats were disunified and morose, while the Republicans looked ever more energised. Hence Biden delaying shipments of arms to the Jewish state. Hence Biden talking of the IDF going “over the top” with “indiscriminate bombing”, despite the fact that his own administration was sending precision munitions to Israel, explicitly to enable the IDF to limit civilian casualties.
With Harris in the White House, the Squad and their fellow travellers will be pushing at a far easier door. Yesterday, the co-leader of Britain’s Green Party, Carla Denyer, was forced to apologise after she praised Biden, triggering a backlash from the Israelophobic grassroots of her party.
Owen Jones, who has apparently become even more profoundly unhinged since October 7, appointed himself their mouthpiece, ranting on Twitter about how Biden had “armed and facilitated the mass slaughter of innocent people”. It didn’t take long for Denyer to cave to the pressure, bleating that she apologised if her supporters felt she was “offering my unmitigated support for his Presidency”, particularly selling arms to the Middle East’s only democracy as it fights for its life against the forces of jihadism.
Let the Greens be a cautionary tale. A second Trump term threatens to undermine America’s democratic institutions and usher in an era of isolationism, not least on Ukraine. A Harris administration may embolden the new radicalism that increasingly dominates her party and unleash it even more violently across the United States.
For those of us who care about global stability, principled and pragmatic foreign policy and the future of America, the Biden years – for all their significant failures – may come to look like a golden age.
A just approach to rebuilding Gaza would be to give Palestinians the agency to solve their own problems. Despite the insistence in the declarations, UNRWA is only indispensable to Hamas. Beyond the weapons, rocket launchers, tunnels, dead hostages and server farms found in and underneath their facilities, and octogenarians held captive by their employees, UNRWA has been funnelling significant sums of cash straight from donors to Hamas for years.
The money laundering works like this: UNRWA insists on distributing cash aid to Gazans in US dollars, a currency they have to convert to shekels in order to use locally. In the West Bank, Jordan and other countries, UNRWA distributes cash aid in the local currency. Hamas, controlling the only licensed money changers in Gaza, charges Gazans a 10 to 20 per cent commission to convert their dollars to shekels. For more than a decade, over a billion dollars in cash from donations has been diverted into Hamas’s coffers.
In New York, diplomats and world leaders like Secretary General António Guterres only decried the delegitimisation of UNRWA as a partner to Hamas, and urged further donations with no end in sight. There was no attempt to counter the money laundering. No path to countering Hamas’s systematic desecration of UNRWA’s neutrality. No resolution to have UNRWA work to promote a sustainable peace between Palestinians and Israelis. By funding UNRWA as it is, we will only meet the same problems in the next generation.
At the start of the next school year, Abed will go back to teaching in his UNRWA classroom while Hamas restocks its storage cupboards with guns. Printed with the UN seal, the textbooks he will teach from contain tasks like writing out the sentence “I will nourish the homeland with my blood”, and learning early mathematics by counting martyrs from past wars.
