Elliott Abrams: Afghanistan and the Abraham Accords
Simply put, Arab states face numerous threats and see their region as one where Iran, Turkey, and Israel are the most powerful nations. They also see a decline in American willingness to use power to protect U.S. interests—and to protect U.S. allies. Witness, for example, the failure of the Biden administration to respond to the Iranian drone attack on the Mercer Street commercial vessel in the Arabian Sea last month, which killed two members of the ship’s crew, or the Trump administration’s failure to respond when Iranian-backed terrorists attacked the Abqaiq petroleum facility in Saudi Arabia in 2019.
What is happening in Afghanistan will deepen the impression among Arab governments that they cannot rely on the United States to protect their security as they used to. So those states have increasingly drawn the conclusion that they have one neighbor who unlike Iran or Turkey poses no threat to them, and who continually displays a firm willingness to use military power against its enemies. That’s Israel. Israel in addition has a modern economy based on exceptional high-tech achievements, and maintains not only a close alliance with the United States but working relationships with Russia and China. For the Arabs, then, the Abraham Accords were at long last the victory of self-interest over ideology –and over outmoded versions of Arab nationalism and support for Palestinians.
This is a boon for Israel, and seeing Arab states draw closer to Israel is a benefit for the United States as well, because we maintain close relations with many of them. But the reason for this development is problematic. It does not primarily reflect U.S. pressures or urgings, especially under the Biden administration. Instead it reflects a realpolitik judgment about the U.S. role in the region, and about our willingness to act to protect allies, friends, and even ourselves. The collapse in Afghanistan will only deepen the doubts and fears many countries --including Israel and the Arab states-- have about America’s role in the world, and about the Biden administration’s understanding of the challenges we face.
Ben-Dror Yemini: The fall of Kabul is warning sign for Israel
There are those in the U.S. willing to dismiss nearly half a million dead in Afghanistan and Iraq, as well as the $6.4 trillion – an amount equal France's annual GDP – that went up in smoke. While they may assert that "an agreement" will make everything okay, Israel has no such option.Col Kemp: Greatest humiliation for America and the West in decades
Anyone seeking to understand what will now happen to Afghanistan - and probably Iraq in the near future - should take a look at the Gaza Strip as a test case.
The images of Taliban militants marching victoriously through the streets of Kabul will only whet the appetites of their acolytes, wherever they may be.
If they are successful in bringing the world's most powerful nation to its knees, everyone else should be a mere pushover.
This massive geopolitical shift affects Israel directly. There is no need for most Palestinians to support Hamas or Sharia law. All that it takes is one fanatical fundamentalist group with boundless determination, regardless of public support or lack thereof.
With the Taliban defeating the Soviet Union and now the U.S., the implicit conclusion is that without Israel's security control, Ramallah - the West Bank seat of power for the Palestinian Authority - will fall to Hamas much faster than Kabul fell.
This does not mean that Israel now needs to take extreme measures such as annexing the West Bank or increasing its settler presence, both decisions that will prove fatal, but that the country's security establishment must start to think outside the box.
All nations of the West suffered complete strategic blindness to the dangers of the Taliban and Israel must take care that it does not catch it too.
We are now in transition from an elected — if deeply flawed — administration to a bunch of murderous thugs who just marched in and demanded control. Despite the lying platitudes of Taliban spokesmen the benighted Afghan people will see an immediate return to the unmitigated savagery of pre-2001 days — execution and amputation for transgressing the strict sharia code, women stoned to death, girls banned from school, institutionalised rape and recreational killing.
Afghans have already begun fleeing from these horrors and many more will follow, with a favourite route crossing Iran, into Turkey and on to Europe.
We are in direct danger too. This victory for the Taliban has already been proclaimed by jihadists everywhere who will be inspired and emboldened by it. Those that think the Taliban has broken with Al Qaida can think again. In reality the relationship between the two has strengthened and deepened over the last 20 years. The Islamic State too now has a significant and growing presence in Afghanistan. We will soon see jihadists from around the world pour into the country as they did before 9/11. They will train, organize and plan for strikes against the West, including Britain.
One of the greatest concerns over a Taliban takeover has long been the risk of further instability in Pakistan, with the potential of jihadists gaining control of their nuclear weapons. The prospects of that nightmare scenario just increased.
Strategically the catastrophe is at least as great. Biden’s decision means America’s word will be seen to count for nothing by governments across the world that we had hoped to win onto our side against the despots in Beijing and Moscow. Those same despots will conclude that America is weaker than they thought and work to exploit it.
