Wednesday, April 01, 2026

03/31 Links Pt1: Hegseth: Iranian Missile Strikes Fall to Lowest Level, ‘Widespread Desertions’ Squeeze Regime’s Fighting Force; Israel ends all defense deals with France

From Ian:

Lessons from the Iran War
The centers of gravity on both sides of the Iran war are holding up under military pressure: Iran's command and control, its domination of a still-cowed population, ability to block shipments out of the Gulf, and its missile and drone stocks; the U.S., Israel, and Arab states' internal cohesion, weapons stocks, and despite considerable oil and gas price increases.

Neither side is displaying a decisive collapse of will, with Gulf Arab states so far demonstrating both resilience and defiance of Iran. There will not be a collapse of will by the Israeli government and population. For Israel, this conflict, correctly, is existential and the costs so far are easily bearable. Under such conditions, the conflict likely will shift to negotiations with or without a ceasefire.

Iran is a cause more than a state, although it presents as both. Its attacks on civilian targets in neighboring states seeking to remain neutral, and targeting of international oil supplies, have revealed the regime's nature. The region will never be really at peace unless either the very nature of the regime changes into that of a normal state, or it is stripped of all capability, in perpetuity, to project power through nuclear weapons, drones and missiles, terrorists and proxies.

Iran is able to prioritize its ideological mission of regional domination and religious orthodoxy over its own population, economy, and even military losses in a way most normal modern states cannot. It's hard to break the iron will of ideological states at almost any pain level.

Israel's extraordinary military success both offensive and defensive, the Israeli people's resilience, and its intelligence capabilities in this conflict give it dramatic dominance in the region, building on its previous success with the help of others decimating the Iranian proxy network. But it does not have the strategically mobile ground forces to decisively defeat Iran or other distant foes.

Iran's current strategy is simply to keep shooting with whatever is left of its not inexhaustible but very large weapons stocks until the pain on Gulf states and the American public, diminishing American and regional partners' own weapons stocks, and events elsewhere force the U.S. and Israel to end operations, with or without a face-saving formal understanding with Iran.
John Spencer: What Are Iran’s Centers of Gravity and How Are They Being Attacked?
The United States and Israel are not simply working through a list of targets in an effort to destroy Iran’s military piece by piece. They are applying pressure across multiple parts of the same system at once. Production, command, naval capability, sensing networks, infrastructure, and support networks are all being hit in ways that reinforce each other.

That is what a center of gravity approach looks like in practice. Not a single decisive strike, but a series of actions that collectively make it harder for the system to function, adapt, and recover.

Clausewitz’s warning about dispersion still applies. Effort should be concentrated. But concentration does not always mean a single point. It can mean sustained pressure against the elements that give the enemy its strength.

There is also a dimension of modern war that Clausewitz could not have fully imagined. The ability to strike not just the system, but the individuals who animate it, at scale and with precision. Today, the United States and Israel are not only degrading infrastructure and capabilities. They are systematically targeting the leadership that commands them. Political leaders, military commanders, and those responsible for missile forces, naval operations, nuclear development, and proxy networks. This is not incidental. It follows the same logic. If the center of gravity is the regime’s integrated ability to generate and sustain coercive power, then removing the leadership that directs and coordinates that system directly attacks its function and its will. It introduces paralysis, disrupts continuity, and signals that no part of the system is protected.

And even then, the outcome is not automatic. War is a contest of will. Striking a center of gravity is not about destruction alone. It is about compelling the enemy to do your will through the use, or threat of use, of force, including military action, sanctions, and the removal of critical capabilities the regime sees as vital to its survival.

If the campaign is successful, Iran’s critical capabilities are degraded or destroyed, and there is a real possibility the effects of the war will be visible in decisions, not just damage. That could include Iran handing over its nuclear material, accepting intrusive inspections, ending the program in a way that cannot be easily reversed, halting missile development at scale, reducing or ending support to proxy forces, and abandoning the use of the Strait of Hormuz as a tool of coercion.

Those outcomes are the measure. Anything short of that may represent significant damage. It may even look decisive in the short term. But Clausewitz would caution against confusing damage with success.
IRGC Opposes Negotiations with U.S.
Contacts between Iran and the U.S. are intensifying, Israel Hayom has learned.

In Washington, officials believe that Iran's economic and military distress will push Tehran to accept the 15-point American proposal within a matter of weeks.

Negotiations are currently being conducted by a handful of senior Iranian leaders still in place, alongside President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

The main obstacle remains the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The U.S. has demanded guarantees that the entire leadership, including the Guards, accept the terms.

At this stage, the Iranians have been unable to provide such guarantees because of the fierce opposition of Mohammad Vahidi, the Guards' current commander, to the very existence of negotiations. In the United Arab Emirates, Iranian financial assets have been frozen, with the intention of using them as compensation for the damage caused by Iranian attacks.


Iranian Missile Strikes Fall to Lowest Level Seen During War As ‘Widespread Desertions’ Squeeze Regime’s Fighting Force, Hegseth Says
Iranian missile strikes have dropped to their "lowest number" yet over the past 24 hours, as Operation Epic Fury sparks "widespread desertions" among Tehran's fighting force, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said on Tuesday morning.

"The last 24 hours saw the lowest number of enemy missiles and drones fired by Iran," Hegseth told reporters at the Pentagon. "Our strikes are damaging the morale of the Iranian military, leading to widespread desertions, key personnel shortages, and causing frustrations amongst senior leaders."

"They will go underground, but we will find them," Hegseth said of the Islamic Republic’s remaining leadership. "We recently destroyed another one of their command bunkers. Leaders forced to flee, no water, no power, no oxygen, no command and control. Their faith in their caves diminishing."

The chaos and confusion inside the regime has allowed U.S. forces to penetrate deeper into Iran, hitting missile systems and other targets based on real-time intelligence. The United States conducted some 200 dynamic strikes through Monday evening, with fighter pilots being fed updated targeting information mid-air. These types of attacks have allowed the U.S. military to take out Iran’s mobile missile launchers and troop formations while they move into place.

"A dynamic target is one that changes while you're in the air because of improved intelligence, 200 dynamic strikes alone, in addition to the pre-planned targets," Hegseth said, confirming that among the targets was an ammunition depot inside Iran’s Esfahan nuclear complex. Trump posted a video of the strike Monday evening on Truth Social, showing 2,000 pound bunker busters hammering the military site.

"The upcoming days will be decisive," Hegseth said. "Iran knows that, and there's almost nothing they can militarily do about it. Yes, they will still shoot some missiles, but we will shoot them down."

Hegseth said that Iran’s remaining leadership would be wise to strike a deal with Trump while the offer remains on the table.
Trump Tells Aides He's Willing to End War Without Reopening Hormuz
President Trump told aides he's willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, administration officials said, leaving a complex operation to reopen it for a later date. In recent days, Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to pry open the chokepoint would push the conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks.

He decided that the U.S. should achieve its main goals of hobbling Iran's navy and its missile stocks and wind down current hostilities while pressuring Tehran diplomatically to resume the free flow of trade. If that fails, Washington would press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead on reopening the strait, the officials said. There are also military options the president could decide on, but they are not his immediate priority, they said.

Trump and his team say the strait matters far more to countries in Europe, the Middle East and Asia than to the U.S., insisting it is not vital to America's energy needs. In 2024, 84% of crude oil and 83% of liquid natural gas shipped through the strait was bound for Asian markets, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News on Monday, "The market is well-supplied, and we are seeing more and more ships go through on a daily basis as individual countries cut deals with the Iranian regime for the time being. But over time, the U.S. is going to retake control of the straits, and there will be freedom of navigation, whether it is through U.S. escorts or a multinational escort." This month, nearly 40 countries - including the UK, \ and Canada - pledged "our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait."
End of multilateralism: Iran war exposed NATO's irrelevance - opinion
The illusion of European strategic autonomy
The current conflict has violently torn away the last lingering illusions of a cohesive global partnership, revealing a stark truth: Israel and the United States are operating as the sole credible guardians of Western civilization in the Middle East.

Continental powers, particularly France and Germany, remain severely constrained by their own myopic policy choices. Their historical reliance on Russian natural gas has simply been replaced by a desperate hedging strategy involving Middle Eastern autocrats and the appeasement of Tehran.

Furthermore, domestic political calculations – shaped by large immigrant populations sympathetic to the ideologies fueling Iran’s aggression – further tie their hands. Their much-touted pursuit of “strategic autonomy” has ultimately manifested as a deliberate refusal to acknowledge reality. They fail to recognize that the front line of their own defense is currently being held by the IDF.

Strategic obsolescence and the end of an era
Endorsing Israel’s sovereign right to strike the fountainhead of regional and global terrorism should have been the baseline requirement for any serious defense alliance. NATO’s effective refusal to do so demonstrates a fatal flaw: the organization no longer possesses the clarity to recognize its own enemies.

An alliance incapable of identifying the primary, active threat to its members’ fundamental way of life has devolved into a historical artifact. Designed to halt Soviet armor on the plains of Europe, NATO has proven itself utterly unprepared for the asymmetric, ideological, and proxy-driven warfare of the 21st century – a battlespace where missiles fly from Tehran, and terrorists operate with impunity from Beirut to Sanaa.

We are witnessing the final unraveling of the post-World War II security architecture. The United Nations long ago degenerated into a theater for autocratic grandstanding and anti-Western diatribes. The Atlantic alliance now risks becoming a debating club for retired generals and diplomats more concerned with achieving consensus than achieving victory.

The age of seeking lowest-common-denominator agreements among the reluctant is over. If Western civilization is to survive the rising tide of radical aggression, it will not be secured by another European summit communiqué.

It will endure solely because nations like Israel demonstrated the unflinching courage to act when necessary, backed by the only ally that still comprehends the indispensable grammar of hard power.


Israel ends all defense deals with France
Israel’s Defense Ministry has halted all defense procurement from France due to what it views as Paris’s hostile stance toward Jerusalem in the aftermath of Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, massacre, Hebrew media reported on Tuesday.

Israeli Defense Ministry Director-General Amir Baram decided to end all contracts with France and instead rely on Israeli-made equipment and purchases from friendly countries, according to Israel’s Channel 12 News.

The move follows French restrictions on Israeli participation in defense exhibitions and its support for a U.N. resolution calling for an arms embargo on Israel.

In the middle of the June 12-day war with Iran, Israel accused the French government of blocking parts of the Israeli pavilion at the Paris Air Show, breaking understandings reached on Israel’s participation and the principles of equality. Baram at the time called the move “absolutely, bluntly antisemitic” and accused France of “commercial exclusion to prevent successful Israeli industries from competing with French ones.”

In a statement then, the Defense Ministry said the French government’s action “comes at a time when Israel is fighting a necessary and just war to eliminate the nuclear and ballistic threat facing the Middle East, Europe and the entire world.”


Poll: 3/4 of Americans Want U.S. to Stop Iran from Obtaining a Nuclear Weapon
The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll of March 25-26, 2026, found that 74% believe it is in the U.S. interest to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

76% say the U.S. is winning in the war with Iran, including 66% of Democrats, 91% of Republicans, and 70% of Independents.

64% say Iran was cheating on its nuclear deal, and 62% view Iran as a national security threat to the U.S.

73% say they support Israel over Hamas, including 65% of Democrats, 84% of Republicans, and 70% of Independents. Yet in the 18-24 age group, 53% support Hamas.


Israel Seeks to Target Iran's Critical Infrastructure, Continues Moving North Against Hizbullah in Lebanon
The official American position, as reflected in statements from the Pentagon and the White House, opposes Israeli strikes on Iran's critical infrastructure. Washington is concerned that the Iranians will respond with barrages against oil facilities across the Gulf. However, Jerusalem believes that unless Iran's critical infrastructure is dealt a heavy blow, both the Revolutionary Guards and the Iranian government will continue the hardline, defiant course they are now pursuing, both in negotiations with the U.S. and in missile and drone launches toward Israel and the Gulf states.

It appears that President Trump is trying to bring the fighting to an end through diplomacy, but without giving up his main goals. If the war does not end soon through negotiations, the Pentagon is preparing a broad range of options, including special operations that would give the president the PR victory he is looking for, after which he could forgo a diplomatic agreement with the Iranians. Trump still has not decided which course of action he will choose.

In Lebanon, there is not the slightest sign that Hizbullah is prepared to disarm, and there is no actor inside Lebanon capable of enforcing such a move, including the Lebanese government. Hizbullah is demonstrating that it, together with its Iranian patrons, remains the decisive force on Lebanese sovereign territory. That is evident in the case of the Iranian ambassador, whom the Lebanese government expelled but who has remained under Hizbullah's protection.

The IDF is operating 12 brigade combat teams inside Lebanon, up to roughly the Litani River. These forces are drawing much of Hizbullah's fire onto themselves, thereby reducing the physical damage to Israel's north. They are also providing active defense that keeps Hizbullah cells from infiltrating frontline communities and has nearly eliminated direct anti-tank missile fire and sniper attacks on fence-line towns in the Galilee.

The security zone up to the Litani is not meant to be a second version of the "security zone" from which the IDF withdrew in May 2000. There will be no Shiite communities in this sector, only a handful of Christian villages. There will be no South Lebanon Army, and Israeli forces will not sit in fixed outposts exposed to shelling and Hizbullah raids. Instead, the military intends to conduct a mobile defense based on advanced technological intelligence-gathering, minimizing Hizbullah's ability to strike our forces from a distance or raid them. This security zone is now taking shape.


IDF strikes Iranian regime chemical manufacturer
The IDF struck a factory that transferred chemical substances used in the Iranian regime’s development of chemical weapons on Tuesday, the IDF announced.

The factory was owned by the Tofiq Daru Company, a principal supplier of fentanyl for the Organization of Defense Innovation and Research (SPND), Iran’s Defense Ministry’s development agency.

SPND is responsible for developing chemical weapons for the Iranian regime, said the military’s statements.

The strike comes amidst an IDF announcement that 100% of essential targets will have been destroyed by Wednesday as Israel doubles down on its strikes on sites deemed threatening to Israel.

Among the recent targets are a weapon manufacturing site in Tehran and a uranium enrichment facility in Ardakan. Substances used for development of chemical weapons

According to the IDF, Tofiq’s factory disguised itself as a civilian company, but was used by the regime for the production of substances utilized in the research and development of chemical weapons.

“The Tofiq Daru Company knowingly and systematically supplied this deadly substance [fentanyl] to the SPND organization, which used it to conduct research and development of chemical weapons,” said the IDF.

Fentanyl is an anesthetic that is considered a highly lethal substance when used in high doses.

The military claimed that the strike on the factory “ impaired the Iranian terror regime's chemical weapons production capabilities.”


UN probe shows roadside blast killed 2 UNIFIL troops; IDF: Hezbollah planted bombs
A roadside explosion appears to have struck the convoy of two Indonesian peacekeepers killed in southern Lebanon, the UN peacekeeping chief said on Tuesday, citing initial findings of an investigation.

The two peacekeepers with the UNIFIL force were killed on Monday near Bani Hayyan in south Lebanon and two other soldiers were wounded.

A preliminary review of the incident conducted by the Israel Defense Forces found that the blast was caused by roadside bombs likely placed by Hezbollah, a military official told The Times of Israel.

In an official statement, the military said that “a comprehensive operational examination indicates that no explosive device was placed in the area by IDF troops, and that no IDF troops were present in the area at all.”

“The IDF is operating against Hezbollah, and not against UNIFIL, the Lebanese Armed Forces, or Lebanese civilians. The IDF calls on UNIFIL to avoid presence in combat zones where the IDF has issued warnings to the civilian population to evacuate for their safety,” the military added.

Another Indonesian soldier was killed overnight Sunday into Monday when a projectile exploded near one of the group’s positions. According to a UN security source, the peacekeeper was killed by Israeli fire.

“UNIFIL is conducting investigations to determine the circumstances of these reprehensible developments,” Jean-Pierre Lacroix, the head of UN peacekeeping, told a UN Security Council meeting on Lebanon, where a new war between Israel and Lebanese terror group Hezbollah erupted on March 2.

Israel’s UN ambassador, Danny Danon, blamed the deaths of the three peacekeepers on Hezbollah. He charged that the group launches rockets from villages next to UN positions, “putting peacekeepers directly in the line of fire.”


Four soldiers killed, 3 wounded in south Lebanon clash with Hezbollah
Four Israeli soldiers were killed and three others were wounded in a clash with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, the Israel Defense Forces announced on Tuesday, as the military continued to battle the Iran-backed terror group. Separately, a civilian was wounded by a rocket attack in the border community of Avivim.

Meanwhile, Defense Minister Israel Katz said that the IDF would remain in control of large swaths of southern Lebanon until the threat of Hezbollah is removed, and that “all homes in Lebanese villages near the border will be destroyed.”

The slain soldiers were named as Cpt. Noam Madmoni, 22, from Sderot; Staff Sgt. Ben Cohen, 21, from Lehavim; Staff Sgt. Maxsim Entis, 21, from Bat Yam; and Staff Sgt. Gilad Harel, 21, from Modiin.

All served with the Nahal Brigade’s Reconnaissance Unit.

In addition, one soldier was seriously wounded, a reservist was moderately hurt, and another soldier was lightly injured in the Monday incident.

Four other Israeli soldiers were wounded in separate Hezbollah attacks in southern Lebanon on Monday, the IDF said.

In one incident, a soldier was moderately wounded by shrapnel from a rocket that struck near Israeli forces, and in separate incident, three reservists were lightly wounded after a drone impacted near them.

The clash in which the four were killed marked the single deadliest incident for the IDF since it launched a new ground offensive against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon amid the war with Iran.

According to an IDF probe of the incident, during operations in the southern Lebanese village of Beit Lif at around 6:30 p.m. on Monday, troops of the Nahal Reconnaissance Unit spotted a cell of Hezbollah gunmen.

The soldiers exchanged fire with the operatives from close range, hitting several of them, the military found. During that exchange of fire, one soldier was killed and three were wounded.


Funerals held for 3 of the soldiers killed fighting Hezbollah in southern Lebanon
Three of the four Israeli soldiers killed fighting against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon were laid to rest in Israel on Tuesday, in separate funerals.

The three slain soldiers who were buriedwere Staff Sgt. Maxsim Entis, 21, from Bat Yam; Cpt. Noam Madmoni, 22, from Sderot; and Staff Sgt. Ben Cohen, 21, from Lehavim.

Staff Sgt. Gilad Harel, 21, from Modiin, was also killed in Monday’s incident. He was set to be buried Wednesday, according to Hebrew media reports.

All four served with the Nahal Brigade’s Reconnaissance Unit.

In Bat Yam, hundreds gathered to pay respects to the Entis family, including former prime minister Naftali Bennett.

At the funeral, Entis’ father eulogized his fallen son, Maxsim: “My son is a hero, but I don’t want a hero for a son,” he said, according to Haaretz. Family and friends of Israeli soldier Staff Sgt. Maxsim Entis attend his funeral at the Bat Yam Military Cemetery, March 31, 2026. (Avshalom Sassoni/Flash90)

“I want my son at home,” he said.

“The day before you entered Lebanon, I asked if you were afraid,” the father continued, addressing his son. “You told us that you would return: ‘I want children, I want you to have grandchildren.’ We waited for you at home, and you did come back, but only in a coffin.”

In Sderot, at the funeral of Cpt. Noam Madmoni, the fallen soldier’s brother Uri spoke: “I was planning for you to officiate at my wedding in two months, and now here I am eulogizing you over your grave.”


Northern Israel faces over 50 Hezbollah rocket launches, drone infiltrations, leaving three injured
Hezbollah fired over 50 rockets and drones towards the Upper Galilee on Tuesday evening.

Magen David Adom reported that a piece of shrapnel impacted near a house on a kibbutz.

Three people were lightly injured in the attacks, including a 6-year-old child. Only two people were taken to a nearby hospital for their injuries.

Eight people injured in central Israel after Iran fires cluster munition
Earlier on Tuesday, eight people were lightly wounded across several sites in central Israel following several fragments falling from an Iranian cluster munition, Magen David Adom confirmed.

The youngest of those wounded are two 18-month-old babies. MDA took the wounded to be treated at Mayanei Hayeshua Medical Center, Rabin Medical Center-Beilinson Campus, and Sheba Medical Center.

Several other people were treated for wounds received on their way to safe rooms or panic attacks.

Additionally, several cars went up in flames after a fragment from an Iranian cluster munition hit a street in central Israel.

Several fragments were found in the Tel Aviv area, and emergency services and police investigated.


Eli Lake and Haviv Rettig Gur on Why Iran's Regime Is Hard to Kill
What does it actually take to break a regime built on martyrdom?

Eli Lake sits down with Haviv Rettig Gur — host of Ask Haviv Anything and one of the deepest thinkers on the Middle East — to assess week five of the Iran war. They trace the ideological DNA of Iran’'s Islamic Republic from the Algerian National Liberation Front to Frantz Fanon to Ali Shariati, and explain why this is a regime designed to treat its own destruction as a form of victory. Plus: what a color revolution in Tehran could mean for Sunni Islamism, Hamas, and the future of the Palestinian question.
The Free Press: He Founded Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. Now He Wants to Destroy It.
This week, I sat down with one of the founders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Mohsen Sazegara has witnessed nearly every phase of the modern-day Iranian regime—from the inside. In 1978, at the age of just 23, he was one of Ruhollah Khomeini’s closest aides and advisers, helping plan the final stages of the Iranian Revolution from Khomeini’s commune in Paris. He was then aboard the historic flight that brought Khomeini back to power in Iran after 15 years in exile. After the revolution, Sazegara helped establish the IRGC and held a number of positions in the new government.

Then things began to unravel.




Supreme Leader Khamenei in Iran but avoiding public appearances, Russian envoy says
Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is in the country but is refraining from making public appearances "for understandable reasons," the RTVI news outlet quoted Russia's ambassador to the country as saying on Tuesday.

Khamenei replaced his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed when Israel and the United States launched their war on Iran more than a month ago. The US has said it believes Mojtaba himself is wounded and likely disfigured.

Khamenei has only released a handful of statements since becoming Iran's supreme leader. His first message was delivered in a letter allegedly written by the Iranian leader himself, while subsequent messages were conveyed by unspecified means.

Russia has close ties with Iran, with which it signed a strategic partnership treaty last year.


Scathing UN report demands Syria probe abuses during clashes with Druze; 1,700 were killed
A United Nations inquiry said Friday that there is “no indication” Syria has investigated violations its forces committed during sectarian clashes last summer in which at least 1,700 people were killed, the vast majority from the Druze religious minority.

In a scathing 85-page report, the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic urged Syria’s government to investigate the leadership of its security forces that allowed or organized sectarian attacks against the Druze community.

The report estimates that about 200,000 people were displaced in the violence in Sweida, the heartland of Syria’s Druze community. Among the dead were almost 200 women and children.

In mid-July, armed groups affiliated with Druze spiritual leader Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri clashed with local Bedouin clans, spurring intervention by government forces who effectively sided with the Bedouins.

Targeted sectarian attacks, first against the religious minority group and later the Bedouin community, and a series of abductions, further soured ties.

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa has vowed to investigate the events and hold perpetrators on all sides to account, including government forces.

UN investigators spent weeks in Syria, interviewing more than 400 survivors, officials and alleged perpetrators. They visited affected areas, including those under government control and those under the de facto rule of an Israeli-backed umbrella group of local armed Druze factions.




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