Wednesday, March 18, 2026

  • Wednesday, March 18, 2026
  • Elder of Ziyon

Wars used to be won by destroying things — tanks, supply lines, cities, armies. The logic was attrition: grind down the enemy's capacity until the cost of continuing exceeded the cost of surrender. It was brutal, slow, and often indiscriminate. 

Israel has been developing, for over a decade, something categorically different: a strategy that targets not capabilities but competence — and not just competence, but the human architecture that holds organizations together under pressure.

The killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026 — along with Iran's defense minister, IRGC commander, and National Security Council secretary, all in a single morning — didn't emerge from nowhere. It was the culmination of a strategic doctrine tested and refined across several theaters. Lebanon 2024, the Gaza campaign, the Twelve-Day War of June 2025, and earlier assassinations of nuclear scientists and major regime figures: these were rehearsals. Not rehearsals for a bigger version of the same thing, but rehearsals for a fundamentally new kind of warfare.

Organizations are not interchangeable collections of roles. They are repositories of accumulated expertise, and expertise is not transferable by promotion. But beyond expertise, the most dangerous leaders combine strategic intelligence with something harder to quantify: the ability to make people believe.

Hassan Nasrallah was a clear example. When Israel killed him, it didn't just remove a tactician. It removed a figure who had spent three decades building something close to a myth. His weekly broadcasts were required listening — not just for Hezbollah loyalists but for his enemies, Israeli analysts, and the entire regional press corps. He spoke with the authority of someone who had survived everything thrown at him, who had built a militia into a military force capable of fighting a sovereign state to a standstill in 2006, and whose words carried the weight of that record. His successor inherited a title and an org chart, but not the charisma, the following, or the credibility that came from Nasrallah's singular history. By all accounts the replacement is an organizational caretaker, not a strategic thinker — a man without his own ideas, let alone his own mythology.

The Iranian nuclear scientists targeted over years of Israeli operations represent the same logic applied to technical expertise. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh wasn't just the program's senior manager. He was its integrating intelligence, the person who understood not only what the program was doing but how to improvise when circumstances changed, how to work around sanctions, how to protect critical knowledge from the next disruption. You can train a replacement to hold his title. You cannot train someone to have already lived through the hard problems.

This is the expertise gap that conventional warfare ignores entirely. When you bomb a missile depot, the enemy orders more missiles. When you kill the engineer who designed the guidance system from first principles, you lose not just a person but an irreplaceable institutional memory.  The damage is invisible until the moment it becomes catastrophic.

The Syria case is the most instructive — and the most misread.

Israel never targeted Bashar al-Assad. What it did, over years of strikes on Iranian weapons shipments and Hezbollah supply chains, was remove the external scaffolding holding his regime upright. When Hezbollah was decapitated and depleted, Syria lost its essential external guarantor. When HTS moved, Assad's army simply didn't fight. The regime collapsed in days.

The conventional explanation focuses on the cascade, of one domino toppling another. But the deeper lesson is about what was revealed when the pressure came. The Syrian army was already hollow. Corruption had gutted its officer corps. Economic collapse had shredded the material incentives for loyalty. Soldiers with families and futures had no interest in dying for a regime that had spent years stealing from them. When the moment came, the rational choice was to run, which they enthusiastically did. 

This is the hidden variable in any authoritarian security apparatus: institutional loyalty is not a constant. It is a function of morale, leadership credibility, economic self-interest, and, crucially,personal survival calculus. An army fights when it believes in the cause, trusts its leadership, expects to win, or fears the consequences of not fighting more than the consequences of fighting. Remove enough of those conditions and the army stops being an army.

Israel's intelligence picture of Iran presumably includes a detailed assessment of where those conditions stand. The regular Iranian army and the IRGC are not the same institution. The IRGC is ideologically self-selecting, economically privileged, and institutionally invested in the regime's survival in ways the regular army is not. But the IRGC has also just lost its entire senior command structure in a single morning. Whether ideological commitment survives the simultaneous elimination of the people who embodied and enforced it is exactly the question that has never been answered — because it has never before been put to the test at this level.

The full strategic logic has three layers operating simultaneously.

The first is decapitation — the removal of irreplaceable expertise, institutional memory, and personal authority at the top. 

The second is environmental degradation: economic pressure, proxy network destruction, the normalization agreements that have progressively isolated Iran regionally. 

The third, and least discussed, is tempo manipulation: forcing new, untested leaders to make high-stakes decisions under conditions of maximum uncertainty, faster than they can possibly develop the competence to navigate them. It is forcing unsure leaders to respond to circumstances that their predecessors never faced so they have no playbook and no instincts on how to respond to new situations.

Mojtaba Khamenei, assuming he is alive and functional, faces an Iran that has lost its IRGC command structure, its main strategists, its nuclear program, its proxy network, and the economic leverage those proxies provided — all simultaneously, in his first weeks in office. His father spent thirty-six years building the mental map required to steer through crises of this kind. Mojtaba has none of it, and no Nasrallah-equivalent in any adjacent institution to lean on. And the main person he would lean upon, Ali Larjani, is now gone too. 

Which brings the logic back to the bottom of the security apparatus. At some point, the question facing every IRGC colonel, every Basij commander, every soldier ordered to fire on protesters or hold a perimeter against a collapsing command structure, becomes stark: am I willing to die for leaders I have little personal loyalty to, in the name of a system whose top tier couldn't even protect themselves? Do I want to risk being tried for war crimes for firing on my own people? Does my loyalty to a shaky regime overcome the fact that I haven't received a paycheck this month? Whether Iran's security forces answers these questions the same way Syria's did depends on factors that no outside analyst can fully assess — but that Israel's intelligence services have been studying for years.

Traditional warfare is bottom-up: destroy enough capacity at the base until the leadership has nothing left to fight with. The new warfare inverts this entirely. Remove the head, and watch what the body does to survive. Venezuela is the clearest recent demonstration: US forces simply snatched Maduro. Within weeks, his successor was freeing political prisoners, opening the oil sector to foreign investment, and meeting with US cabinet officials:  not out of conviction, but because the example of what happened to Maduro was now impossible to ignore. The army didn't fight. The regime didn't collapse, but it bent, immediately and dramatically, in ways that years of conventional pressure had failed to achieve. 

The Venezuela example is very different from Iran, but the logic is the same. Targeting the top is more efficient and has outsized effects. Unpredictable, sure, but when was conventional war predictable? Iran is the same logic applied with harder instruments.

This is the moral case for the new warfare, and it deserves to be made plainly. The alternative to this strategy is not peace. It is a protracted conventional conflict that would kill tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians, shatter infrastructure, and produce the exact rally-around-the-flag consolidation that makes authoritarian regimes harder to dislodge. Measured against that alternative, a strategy that concentrates lethal force on the leadership cadre most responsible for the threat — and bets on the rational self-interest of the people below them — is not just more effective. It is more moral.

Unpredictability is not a flaw of this strategy. It is a feature of all strategy. The question is only which side enters the uncertainty holding the advantage. Iran's new leaders face problems their predecessors spent lifetimes learning to navigate — and nobody left alive knows how to make the next decision.

That is the new warfare. It employs fewer bombs and smarter targets. The goal is not to destroy an army. It is to create circumstances where the army destroys itself. 




Buy EoZ's books  on Amazon!

"He's an Anti-Zionist Too!" cartoon book (December 2024)

PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism (February 2022)

   
 

 

  • Wednesday, March 18, 2026
  • Elder of Ziyon


From the Alexandria Gazette, March 04, 1826, part of a letter from a traveler to the East:

The Jews live altogether in the city of Algiers, and the towns along the coast; they are the most debased wretches I have ever seen, and have not a characteristic worthy of man; they purchase their right of existence by an oppressive apitation tax—but whenever there arises a tumult, the soldiers, if they can find no other object to exercise their rage on, murder and rob the Jews.

They are a most strange people—they delight in living where there is most misery and danger, and they manage to preserve, wherever they go, their religious rights....Two years since 600 of them were murdered, and yet strange as it may appear, the brothers, sisters, &c. remain, to perhaps in three or four more years, undergo the same fate.
The piece was also antisemitic, referring to Jews' "disposition to usury, trade and extortion." 

But once again, the idea that Jews in Muslim lands lived in much better conditions than the Jews of Europe is shown not to be true at all. There were also major murderous pogroms in Algiers in 1805 and 1815, the 1824 event is not as well known. 




Buy EoZ's books  on Amazon!

"He's an Anti-Zionist Too!" cartoon book (December 2024)

PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism (February 2022)

   
 

 

  • Wednesday, March 18, 2026
  • Elder of Ziyon
This linkdump was flagged by Google. But when I tested to figure out why on another semi-private blog, I saw that dividing it up into two does not cause the flag. Who knows. So here is Part 1A:

UPDATE: Now 1B is flagged, but not on my test blog. So instead of littering this blog with ever-decreasing test posts to debug, I'm leaving it as is and hopefully this is an anomaly. I deleted the 1B so as not to make my entire blog score get worse. 

Ugh.

---

From Ian:

Israeli President Herzog: Europe Should Back Effort to Eradicate Hizbullah   
Israel's President Isaac Herzog told AFP on Monday that "Europe should support any effort, any effort, to eradicate Hizbullah now. They should understand that if you want to get anywhere, sometimes you need to win war."

Israeli officials have repeatedly criticized Lebanese authorities for what they say are failures to honor a commitment to disarm Hizbullah.

On the broader U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, Herzog said: "There comes a moment that after well over a generation of endless wars, bloodshed and terror, the root cause of it, which comes from Tehran, will be blocked and stopped, and the whole direction of the region will change."

He insisted defeating the clerical authorities in Iran was "in the innermost national security interests of Europe." Herzog said that Iran had been seeking "10 times the amount of ballistic missiles, which would have threatened Europe big time."

"After talking and talking for a whole generation, it's about time for doing."

"Where is the whole world? Rather than all the time criticizing Israel, let's help us. Let's help the Americans. Let's help us bring a real change so that there will be a different future in the region."
Elizabeth Tsurkov: Iran’s War Is Not Only With the West
In Iraq, pro-Iranian militias killed hundreds of American servicepeople, mostly through roadside bombs. But the number of Iraqi civilians they have killed far exceeds this. During the 2006–08 sectarian civil war, these militias murdered, r#ped, and t#rtured to death countless numbers of Sunnis. In 2014, during the anti-ISIS war, the militias kidnapped Sunni male teenagers and men and disappeared them into a network of t#rture sites. The militias also ethnically cleansed entire Sunni towns, such as Jurf al-Sakhr, and established military bases there, preventing the residents from returning to this day. The militias engaged in widespread looting of private property in Sunni areas, and stripped state assets such as the oil refinery in Baiji and multiple factories in Ninewa.

After years of abusing Iraq’s Sunnis, the militias turned their guns on the country’s Shia in 2019. Starting in the fall and continuing well into 2020, the militias violently repressed the mostly Shia anti-regime Tishreen (“October”) protest movement, spraying activists with bullets, as well as assassinating them or kidnapping them into their black sites. According to testimonies of survivors, in Baghdad the militias used the abandoned houses of Jewish residents as sites to t#rture and gang-r#pe female and male protesters they would kidnap from the city’s Tahrir Square encampment.

An Iraqi Shia seminary student was kidnapped by a militia for cursing Khamenei in front of a commander. The student was t#rtured, and then his father was kidnapped and t#rtured too. The student told me that when he heard of Khamenei’s killing, “I was happy as if it’s Eid al-Fitr,” one of the two main holidays in Islam. “He was part of the destruction of Iraq. He is the reason for sectarianism and extremism,” the student said.

Even the bloodshed caused by Iran’s proxies in Iraq and Lebanon does not compare with what they inflicted in Syria. Under IRGC command, the militias served as the ground troops in major offensives on rebel-held towns, usually augmented by Syrian soldiers and militiamen. The Iranian-backed militias imposed a series of sieges on rebel-held towns and neighborhoods, such as Zabadani and Madaya near the Lebanese border, the suburbs of southern Damascus, and eastern Aleppo, starving dozens, particularly children and the elderly, to death.

The Syrian doctor was the sole surgeon serving a population of about 10,000 people deprived of most medical help. He told me he carried out hundreds of amputations of limbs without anesthesia because of a shortage of staff, medical equipment, and medication. The Iran-run militias prevented all of these goods and personnel from entering the besieged enclave. The surgeon and the people around him would, he said, eat leaves and grass and drink water with spices to quench the hunger pains. He lost dozens of pounds under the siege.

The oppressive Iranian presence was evident in the surgeon’s daily life. “Khamenei lived among us through his proxies: in the checkpoints that besieged our city, in the militias that would storm our homes, in the kidnapped children and missing women, and in our villages that turned into ruins and mass graves,” he told me.

“Khamenei managed his colonial expansionist project from afar, but it was executed over our bodies and our cities.”
Gulf States Press U.S. to Neutralize Iran for Good as Hormuz Strait Crisis Deepens
Many Gulf Arab states are now urging the U.S. not to leave the Islamic Republic able to threaten the Gulf's oil lifeline and the economies that depend on it, three Gulf sources told Reuters. At the same time, Washington was pressing Gulf states to join the U.S.-Israeli war.

"There is a wide feeling across the Gulf that Iran has crossed every red line with every Gulf country," said Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Center. "At first we defended them [Iran] and opposed the war. But once they began directing strikes at us, they became an enemy. There is no other way to classify them."

Tehran has attacked airports, ports, oil facilities and commercial hubs in the six Gulf states with missiles and drones while disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The attacks have reinforced Gulf fears that leaving Iran with any significant offensive weaponry or arms manufacturing capacity could embolden it to hold the region's energy lifeline hostage whenever tensions rise.

As the war entered its third week, with Iran firing at U.S. bases and civilian targets across the Gulf, a Gulf source said the prevailing mood among leaders was that Trump should comprehensively degrade Iran's military capacity. The alternative, the source said, was living under constant threat. Unless Iran was severely weakened, it would continue to hold the region to ransom.

Tuesday, March 17, 2026

From Ian:

Melanie Phillips: How to fight the lunatic haters: don’t get scared — get smart
Today, Jews are at the sharp end of this onslaught — but all those seeking to defend Israel and America must also begin to make themselves heard.

The security of all Americans is in peril if we refuse to grasp the threats of Islamism at home and of Iran abroad.

My home country of Britain should stand as a warning.

The United Kingdom’s traditional freedoms and liberties have been all but lost amid its leaders’ supine appeasement of a politically powerful Muslim community.

That community has made steady progress toward its goal of Islamizing the country — just as Mayor Zohran Mamdani appears to be attempting in New York.

The Islamists are only able to make such inroads because of their all-too-willing accomplices on the left.

They are bound together by their shared goal of bringing down Western society — despite diametrically opposed views of what should replace it — and their mutual hatred of Jews and Israel.

We aren’t merely witnessing a rise in antisemitism, but a global madness that threatens the West as a whole.

Not just the Jews, but all who are desperate to defend civilization against barbarism need to fight back.
Seth Mandel: What Jurgen Habermas Knew
For the past 96 years, cynicism had few greater enemies than the super-famous philosopher Jurgen Habermas, the former leader of the Frankfurt School of critical theory, who died on Saturday. Among the numerous ways Habermas stood out from his peers in modern social theory was that this former Hitler Youth went to his grave defending Israel’s right of self-defense.

This meant breaking with the post-October 7 manufactured consensus in academia that the Jewish state was guilty of the same category of crimes committed against the Jewish people by Nazi Germany. Yet Habermas’s philosophy made his objection to this calumny inevitable: He believed in the power of engagement—his most famous idea arguably remains his belief that societal problems can and should be solved in the public square—and by the time of his death, that made him an outsider among intellectuals.

Indeed, his peers’ turn against Israel was inseparable from their turn against Enlightenment ideals. Official and unofficial speech codes in academia cast the Jewish state out of the public square: BDS became not just a boycott-focused tactic against Israel but a way of life. You simply did not talk to those who held insufficiently hostile opinions about the Jews.

Habermas understood precisely where that attitude can lead. But his critics on the left misunderstand the way his Germanness informed his fairmindedness on Israel. The last great intellectual controversy of his life is instructive.

In November 2023, Habermas and three co-authors published the following:
“The Hamas massacre with the declared intention of eliminating Jewish life in general has prompted Israel to strike back. How this retaliation, which is justified in principle, is carried out is the subject of controversial debate; principles of proportionality, the prevention of civilian casualties and the waging of a war with the prospect of future peace must be the guiding principles. Despite all the concern for the fate of the Palestinian population, however, the standards of judgement slip completely when genocidal intentions are attributed to Israel’s actions.”

In retrospect, of course, Habermas was well-served by his reluctance to join the mob. As we now know, the “genocide” accusation against Israel has no basis and has been revealed as a bad-faith libel constructed by supporters of a “global intifada.” That Habermas wasn’t fooled by it remains unforgivable to his progressive critics.
Ivan Jablonka, historian: 'The use of last names is a particular trait of antisemitism'
A history professor at Université Sorbonne-Paris Nord and a member of the Institut universitaire de France, a French academic honorary institution, Ivan Jablonka has published several works on the history and memory of the Holocaust. He is the founder of the Traverse series and co-director of the La République des Idées ("The Republic of Ideas") series at the Seuil publishing house. He is also the author of A History of the Grandparents I Never Had (2016).

The leader of La France Insoumise (LFI, radical left), Jean-Luc Mélenchon, made a sarcastic remark during a meeting in support of his movement's candidates for the municipal elections in Lyon on February 26, about the name of the sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. He suggested that the American pronunciation of Epstein's last name [Epsteen] was intended to hide his Jewish identity by making him seem Russian. The Socialist leader, Olivier Faure, condemned what he called a drift into "the dark waters of antisemitism." How do you interpret the remarks made by the LFI leader?

Jean-Luc Mélenchon recently joked about the pronunciation of two Jewish names, Jeffrey Epstein and [on March 1] Raphaël Glucksmann [a French member of the European Parliament]. These remarks are part of a consistent series of statements dating back to 2020. According to him, Jesus was crucified "by his own compatriots." Eric Zemmour [far-right figure] is said to reproduce the "cultural scenarios" of Judaism that are hostile to creolization and Yaël Braun-Pivet [president of the Assemblée Nationale] allegedly "went camping in Tel Aviv to encourage the massacre" in Gaza. La France Insoumise also boycotted the march against antisemitism [in November 2023] and published a poster of Cyril Hanouna [a French TV personality] using Nazi iconography from the 1930s [in March 2025].

This way of referring to Jews reminds me of [late far-right leader] Jean-Marie Le Pen. The daughter [Marine Le Pen] has made people forget the father's misdeeds, but he was a specialist in antisemitic mockery about last names. In 1985, he listed the names of four Jewish journalists – Jean-François Kahn, Jean Daniel, Ivan Levaï and Jean-Pierre Elkabbach – before referring to "all the liars of the press." A few years later, he made the grim pun "Durafour crématoire" [a play on the name of then minister Michel Durafour, alluding to cematorium].

That is where Jean-Luc Mélenchon now stands. He does not advocate an anti-Jewish agenda, as some politicians did between the late 19th century and the Vichy regime, but he offers an interpretive framework typical of antisemitic thinking: Jews are pulling the strings and leading the world into war.
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Note:I am writing as a Jewish thinker, not a Christian theologian. I am not arguing from within the Christian tradition about how it should read its own sources. I am arguing from outside — using a philosophical framework rooted in Jewish ethical methodology — that the theological genre examined here fails by standards universal to moral reasoning, standards that the strongest elements of Christian moral thought itself affirms. Where this essay engages Christian theology, it does so analytically, not confessionally.


The Uncontested Ground

A new theological genre has emerged in the wake of Gaza, and it has largely gone unanswered on the terrain that matters most.

Books like Christ in the Rubble by Munther Isaac, Being Christian After the Desolation of Gaza, and the anthology Theology After Gaza are not simply political critiques wrapped in religious language. They constitute a coherent theological system, with its own internal logic, its own epistemology, and its own account of what Christian faithfulness requires. Taken together, they represent a serious intellectual project, and they deserve a serious intellectual response.

They have not received one.

Christian Zionism, which is the natural constituency for a counter-argument, has largely responded to this genre by retreating to biblical geography. The land was promised, the return was prophesied, the restoration of Israel fulfills scripture. These arguments may be compelling within their own tradition, but against opponents who are arguing about justice and the prophetic tradition's concern for the oppressed, scripture-based Zionism is not playing the same game. It concedes the entire moral-reasoning space by default. Palestinian Christian theology has effectively occupied the moral high ground not because its arguments are sound, but because its opponents have declined to contest them on those terms.

That is the gap this essay attempts to fill.

The framework I am drawing on is Derechology, a system of moral reasoning I have been developing as a form of "moral engineering," applying structural insights from Jewish ethical methodology to construct universal, secular moral analysis. It is not a Jewish theology. It is a method, and methods can be used by anyone. My claim is that this framework can do what Christian Zionism has failed to do: engage Palestinian Christian theology on its own chosen terrain — moral reasoning, prophetic justice, and the ethics of violence — and demonstrate that its conclusions do not follow from the premises it uses to reach them.

I submit that Gaza theology replaces structured moral reasoning with a system in which suffering determines moral truth, moral categories are collapsed into one another, and conclusions are fixed in advance. This produces emotionally compelling but analytically unreliable moral judgments, and it does so not despite claiming the prophetic tradition but by systematically dismantling the analytical tools that tradition requires.


What Gaza Theology Is Actually Doing

The books in this genre are emotionally powerful, and the emotion is not fraudulent. Their authors have witnessed genuine suffering. Munther Isaac is a Palestinian Christian pastor who has ministered in Bethlehem while Gaza was bombed. The suffering of Gazans is real. A serious response cannot dismiss it, and this one will not. For the record: a framework that defended Israeli conduct categorically, without applying the same standards of scrutiny this essay demands of its opponents, would fail the identical test applied here.

But moral authority and emotional authority are not the same thing. The most consequential move in Gaza theology is not the reporting of suffering: it is the theological interpretation of what suffering proves. And that interpretation is where careful analysis must begin.

Across all three books, a single foundational axiom operates: moral authority resides with the victim. The framing in Isaac's book is explicit, that the divine presence is located with those under the rubble,  meaning not merely that God is present with the suffering (a theologically defensible claim with deep roots in the tradition) but that the victim's perspective generates moral truth. Suffering does not merely witness to tragedy; it testifies to guilt.

This is a significant claim. It is largely unargued but rather presupposed. And once presupposed, it does enormous downstream work: moral authority is relocated away from doctrine, law, and structured reasoning, and into the experience of those who suffer. The practical consequence is that disagreement with the victim's narrative becomes morally illegitimate rather than factually contestable: not an error to be corrected but a form of complicity to be condemned. Questioning the framework's conclusions does not invite rebuttal; it triggers indictment. This is not a feature of robust moral reasoning. It is a sign that the framework has foreclosed the inquiry it claims to be conducting.


The Epistemic Problem: Claims as Axioms

Jewish ethical tradition insists on emet — the obligation to truth — as a precondition for moral reasoning, not a byproduct of it. Of course, this is not a specifically Jewish insight; it is shared across traditions. The commandment against bearing false witness is foundational to the Hebrew Bible that Christians read as their own scripture. The prophetic literature is filled with condemnations of dishonest scales, of those who call evil good and good evil, of testimony that serves predetermined conclusions. Any framework claiming continuity with this tradition must audit its own factual premises before proceeding.

Gaza theology does not do this. It proceeds axiomatically.

Consider the term "genocide." In Theology After Gaza, it appears in the preface as settled fact — not a charge to be established but a characterization already in place. Genocide, legally and morally, requires demonstrated intent to destroy a people as such. The Genocide Convention does not define genocide as high civilian casualties in urban warfare. It does not define it as disproportionate force, collective punishment, or ethnic cleansing. It requires specific intent — dolus specialis — directed at the destruction of a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group as a group.

Whether that intent can be demonstrated in Israel's conduct in Gaza is a factual and legal question. It is not answered by casualty figures, no matter how high. It is not answered by quoting politicians making statements about destroying Hamas. It requires sustained evidentiary analysis of military targeting decisions, command structures, stated objectives, and patterns of action — analysis that distinguished legal bodies have conducted and contested without consensus. 

Gaza theology treats this question as closed.

This closure has a diagnostic consequence worth making explicit. A moral framework is falsifiable when there exists some possible evidence that could revise its conclusions. Ask of this framework: what Israeli action, conducted under the same conditions of ongoing Hamas attack, tunnel infrastructure, hostage crisis, and explicit genocidal intent from the other side, would not constitute evidence of genocide within this system? If the answer is that no such action exists — that the conclusion is entrenched regardless of what evidence might show — then the framework is not a moral analysis. It is a verdict with supporting documentation assembled afterward. Israel's policies of warning to the population to move out of harm's way, of facilitating thousands of tons of food and aid into Gaza during active hostilities, of pausing campaigns to allow vaccine distribution and hundreds of other examples, are either ignored or twisted by Israel's critics as more evidence of atrocities. The unfalsifiability is not incidental; it follows directly from locating moral authority in suffering rather than in structured evaluation of acts and intentions.

A methodologically rigorous audit asks: what definition (of genocide, of apartheid, of occupation, of colonialism) is being used? Is it stable? Is it applied consistently? Would the same standard, applied to comparable situations, produce comparable conclusions? These are the minimum conditions for moral reasoning rather than moral performance.


The Category Problem: Fusing What Must Be Distinguished

The most consequential analytical failure in Gaza theology is what might be called category fusion — the collapse of four morally distinct phenomena into a single moral object.

War involves organized armed conflict between parties with recognized combatants and rules governing conduct. Atrocity refers to specific violations of those rules: targeting civilians, torture, execution of prisoners. Structural injustice describes ongoing systemic conditions — occupation, discrimination, unequal legal treatment — that exist apart from active combat. Genocide is a legal category with a specific intent requirement.

These categories are related but not interchangeable. A war can be just even if it contains atrocities. Structural injustice can exist without genocide. Atrocities do not automatically constitute genocide. The legal and moral consequences of each category differ dramatically. (Whether Israel is guilty of atrocities or structural injustice are separate questions requiring separate analysis — neither, in any case, implies genocide.)

In the Gaza theology genre, these categories are merged. Once merged, any evidence of one becomes evidence of all. High civilian casualties — a feature of any urban warfare, especially when one party embeds combatants in civilian infrastructure — become evidence of genocidal intent. The existence of the blockade, a structural policy meant to protect Israeli civilians, is folded into evidence of elimination. October 7th is described as contextualized, reactive violence arising from oppression. Israeli military responses are described as colonial elimination. One side's violence is categorized as structural; the other's as atrocity. Crucially, neither categorization is argued, they are assumed.

This category fusion has a specific logical consequence beyond unfalsifiability: it makes the framework incapable of distinguishing better from worse conduct. If all Israeli military action is genocide by definition, then there is no meaningful moral difference between a strike that kills twenty civilians and one that kills two thousand, between targeting a Hamas commander and targeting a hospital, between a war fought with discriminating means and one fought without them. Moral categories exist precisely to make these distinctions. A framework that erases them cannot guide conduct. It can only pronounce verdicts.

The Christian traditions that Palestinian theologians draw on are not uniform on the ethics of war . Just War theory, developed in the Western Latin tradition by Augustine and Aquinas, is not universally accepted across Christendom. Eastern Orthodox Christianity, the tradition of a substantial portion of Palestinian Christians, has historically taken a more morally austere position: that killing in war, even when unavoidable, carries moral cost requiring penitential response. That tradition, if taken seriously, demands more rigorous analysis of how wars begin, who sustains them, and who bears responsibility for their conditions, not less. The categorical precision that Gaza theology abandons is not a Western imposition. It is what serious moral reasoning about violence requires, regardless of tradition.

Palestinian Christian theology claims the prophetic mantle while dismantling the analytical tools that prophetic justice requires.


Suffering, Agency, and the Prophetic Tradition

The liberation theology tradition from which Gaza theology draws its strongest arguments contains genuine insight. Its insistence that theology must not float free of material conditions — that a gospel indifferent to poverty, displacement, and political oppression is an impoverished gospel — has real roots in the Hebrew prophets, in Amos and Micah and Isaiah. To acknowledge this is not to concede the argument. It is to engage it honestly.

But liberation theology's core claim, that the locus of moral authority shifts toward the suffering, requires examination it rarely receives. There is a crucial distinction between saying that God is present with those who suffer and saying that those who suffer occupy a privileged epistemic position from which moral truth is generated. The first is a claim about solidarity. The second is a claim about who gets to define reality. The Gaza theology books consistently move from the first claim to the second without acknowledging that they have done so.

The Hebrew prophetic tradition, which Isaac invokes extensively, does not support this move. Amos condemns Israel for its treatment of the poor. But the poor in Amos are not exempt from moral analysis by virtue of their poverty. The widow, the orphan, the stranger — protected categories throughout the Hebrew Bible — are protected because of their vulnerability, not because vulnerability confers moral infallibility. The prophets address all parties as moral agents capable of faithfulness and sin, not as pure vessels of divine testimony insulated from evaluation.

There is a deeper problem. Gaza theology's reduction of Palestinian identity to victimhood is, paradoxically, a form of dehumanization. It removes agency. It renders the question of Hamas's stated intentions, Hamas's military tactics, Hamas's governance of Gaza, Hamas's explicit theological commitment to the elimination of Israel, and the documented participation of thousands of non-Hamas Palestinian civilians in the October 7 massacre, largely irrelevant to the moral conclusions the books reach. To take those questions seriously is to treat Palestinians as agents rather than as sufferers, which the framework cannot accommodate without disrupting its own architecture.

A moral framework that functionally exempts one party from analysis is not a framework for justice. It is a framework for a verdict already reached.


The Pursuer: Restoring a Missing Variable

Jewish law has long developed the concept of the rodef — the pursuer. The principle addresses a problem that moral philosophy in every tradition must eventually confront: what obligations arise when someone is not merely threatening harm as a single act, but is on a sustained trajectory toward it? The rodef is distinguished from the ordinary aggressor precisely by this trajectory, the ongoing direction of movement toward lethal harm that creates continuing moral urgency, increasing with every moment of inaction.

The reason to introduce this concept here is not to import a specifically Jewish legal category into a Christian debate. It is to name a variable that Gaza theology's framework structurally omits, and whose omission makes reliable moral evaluation of this conflict impossible.

Any serious moral analysis of the use of force must account for sustained lethal trajectory. The question is not only what happened in a specific strike or operation but what ongoing intention and capacity the force was responding to. This maps onto what multiple Christian traditions recognize as the problem of the unjust aggressor — the party whose ongoing threat to others creates legitimate grounds for intervention. What the rodef concept contributes is precision about trajectory rather than episode: the moral situation is created not merely by a completed act but by a sustained direction of movement that continues unless interrupted. Omit this variable and you cannot correctly evaluate the use of force. You can only evaluate its outcomes, which is not the same thing.

Gaza theology's framework omits this variable entirely. October 7th is described as the opening of "the genocide," contextualizing the massacre of 1,200 civilians — many tortured, many burned alive, many taken hostage — as a response to prior Israeli oppression. Even granting the political context, this framing treats October 7th as an episode arising from conditions rather than the expression of a sustained, institutionally embedded, explicitly articulated intent to destroy.

Hamas's founding documents call for the destruction of Israel and the killing of Jews. They are still in force, despite the 2017 revised document that softened some language. Hamas officials stated after October 7th that the operation was intended to be the first of many. Hamas's tunnel infrastructure — built under hospitals, schools, and civilian housing — represents a structural decision, made deliberately, to embed military assets within civilian populations. Under the laws of war and under basic ethical reasoning, moral responsibility for resulting civilian casualties rests primarily with the party that creates the shield, not the party that must confront it.

These factors do not play a meaningful role in the moral conclusions the books under examination reach. Hamas is not seriously evaluated as a moral agent with a record and a trajectory. Its governance of Gaza — including the execution of political opponents, suppression of civil society, and systematic diversion of humanitarian resources to military construction — does not inform the framework's judgments. Its explicit theological commitment to annihilationist war is not analyzed as a relevant variable. The omission is structural — the framework cannot incorporate this variable without collapsing the architecture that produces its conclusions.

Restoring the concept of sustained lethal trajectory does not predetermine the analysis. It opens it. It insists that all parties be evaluated as moral agents with intentions, capacities, and directions of movement. It asks whether there is an ongoing trajectory of violence that creates continuing moral urgency — a question that has an answer in this conflict, an answer that the Gaza theology genre is structurally prevented from seeing.


The Double Standard as Theological Method

The internal contradiction at the heart of Gaza theology is not incidental. It is structural, and it reveals itself most clearly in the response to October 7th.

Any moral framework is valid only if it applies identical evaluative standards to all agents. This is the minimum definition of a standard rather than a preference. Gaza theology fails it systematically, and the failure operates in both directions simultaneously: Israeli violence is evaluated without the context that might complicate condemnation, while Palestinian violence is contextualized in ways that functionally dissolve condemnation before it can form.

Consider how each side's violence is treated within the framework. Israeli military action is evaluated in isolation from the threats that produce it. The hostage crisis, the documented Hamas use of civilian infrastructure as military cover, the sustained trajectory of genocidal intent articulated in Hamas's own words — none of these factors play a meaningful role in the moral analysis. What plays a role is the outcome: Palestinian civilians died, therefore Israel committed an atrocity, therefore the theological verdict is condemnation. Context for Israeli action is not merely underweighted. It is structurally excluded.

Palestinian violence receives precisely the opposite treatment. The Kairos Palestine document, the foundational text of this theological movement, does not merely acknowledge Palestinian violence; it constructs a causal argument that transfers moral responsibility for it entirely to Israel. "If there were no occupation, there would be no resistance, no fear and no insecurity," the document states, presenting Palestinian violence not as the chosen acts of moral agents but as the mechanical outputs of Israeli input. Under this logic, Palestinian violence has no independent moral standing requiring evaluation. It is Israel's responsibility by definition, before any specific act is examined.

The October 7th massacre made this structural double standard impossible to conceal. Munther Isaac delivered a sermon the day after the massacre that described it in terms of Palestinian endurance — framing the murder of 1,200 civilians around "the strength of the Palestinian man who defied his siege." Later, under significant pressure, he offered a more qualified position: "What happened on 7 October was evil. No one can approve the murder and abduction of civilians and children. But I refuse to ignore the context. What happened on 7 October was the desperate act of people who have known nothing other than the siege of Gaza." 

The structure of that statement repays close attention. The condemnation is entered, then immediately bracketed by context — context that, within the framework's own logic, explains and therefore partially dissolves the moral weight of the act. That same contextual generosity is nowhere operative when Israeli military actions are evaluated. Israeli operations are not described as responses from people who have known nothing but rocket fire, tunnel infiltration, and the sustained genocidal declarations of their neighbors. Israeli context does not soften Israeli verdicts. Palestinian context dissolves Palestinian verdicts. The asymmetry is total and operates in both directions simultaneously.

The 2025 Kairos II document, issued more than two years after October 7th with full knowledge of what the massacre involved, confirms that this asymmetry is not a temporary failure of nerve but a settled theological position. It reaffirms "the right of all colonized peoples to resist their colonizers,"  framing resistance as simultaneously a political right and a theological calling. While including a caveat against civilian killings, the document consistently portrays resistance not merely as a political response but as a faith-driven act rooted in divine calling and religious conscience.  The caveat against civilian deaths is formal. The sanctification of resistance is substantive. When the two conflict — as they did on October 7th — the framework's actual priorities are visible.

This double standard is load-bearing to Gaza theology. Remove it and the framework cannot reach its conclusions, because those conclusions depend on applying maximum scrutiny to Israeli actions while granting structural exemption to Palestinian ones. Apply the same standard in both directions — evaluate both sides' violence in light of the threats each faces, the alternatives each had, the stated intentions each holds, and the moral agency each exercises — and the predetermined verdict dissolves. What remains is a genuine moral inquiry that might produce genuinely complicated conclusions. That, precisely, is what the framework is designed to prevent.

The test is simple: would the same contextual generosity extended to Hamas operatives carrying out October 7th be extended to Israeli military planners responding to ongoing attack, documented genocidal intent, and a hostage crisis? If not — if context humanizes one party while the other's context is structurally irrelevant — then what is being practiced is not ethics. It is weaponized false morality.

The prophetic tradition these books claim as their inheritance was not a tradition of selective indignation. Amos condemned Israel. Jeremiah condemned Judah. The prophets did not exempt their own people from moral analysis on grounds of historical suffering or national solidarity. The standard was consistent precisely because consistency was what made it a standard rather than a preference. Gaza theology, for all its prophetic self-presentation, does not meet the prophets' own test.


On Repentance: The Correct Order of Operations

The books in this genre conclude, consistently, with a call to repentance. Western Christians must repent of their complicity. The Church must reckon with its support for Zionism. The demand is urgent, the language searing.

The Jewish concept of teshuvah — repentance, literally "returning" — is among the most morally serious acts available to human beings. Christian theology has a direct parallel in the Greek concept of metanoia,  the change of mind and direction that stands at the center of the New Testament's moral vocabulary. Both traditions agree on the essential structure: genuine repentance is a complete turning, grounded in honest reckoning with what one has actually done, oriented toward genuine correction. It is not a performance. It is not the expression of solidarity with a cause. It is moral transformation, and both traditions insist that it must be rooted in truth to be real.

This is precisely why false repentance is not a virtue in either tradition. It is a corruption of the concept. To repent on the basis of a false account of what occurred is to perform the form of moral seriousness while evacuating its content. The Hebrew Bible is explicit on the related question of moral responsibility: accountability attaches to the specific acts of specific persons, not to inherited guilt or associative complicity. To demand that Western Christians repent for Israel's conduct on the basis of confessional solidarity — because many Christians support Israel — attributes guilt by association rather than by act. The prophetic tradition that Gaza theology invokes consistently repudiates exactly that move.

More fundamentally, the call to repentance in these books arrives before the moral work that would justify it. Casualty figures are cited not as data to be analyzed but as proof of what has already been decided. Expert claims — genocide, apartheid, ethnic cleansing — are treated not as conclusions to be argued but as premises from which to reason. The demand for repentance precedes rather than follows the establishment of truth, judgment, and responsibility.

In both Jewish and Christian moral understanding, the correct sequence runs in one direction only: truth, then judgment, then responsibility, then repentance. Gaza theology reverses this entirely. A call to repentance that bypasses truth is not moral seriousness. In the very prophetic tradition it claims to represent, it bears a closer resemblance to the false prophecy that tradition consistently and forcefully condemns.

The Gaza theology call to repentance is not a desire to improve oneself; it is a call to condemn fellow Christians under the pretense of religious imperative.


What This Framework Offers

This is not a defense of every Israeli military decision in Gaza.  Specific targeting choices, specific civilian casualty events, specific policy decisions can and should be evaluated on their merits by anyone willing to apply consistent standards. A framework that insists on methodological rigor applies that insistence to all parties, without exception and without predetermined conclusions.

What this analysis contests is the methodological structure Gaza theology uses to reach its conclusions — a structure that treats contested legal categories as settled facts, collapses morally distinct phenomena into a single object of condemnation, locates moral authority in suffering rather than in reasoned evaluation, functionally exempts one party from analysis, applies context asymmetrically in both directions, and demands repentance before establishing truth. These are not failures specific to writing about Gaza. They are failures of method that would corrupt any moral analysis to which they were applied.

Christian Zionism has not made this argument adequately, because it has been fighting on the wrong terrain, defending the legitimacy of Jewish sovereignty through scripture rather than defending the integrity of moral reasoning against its methodological opponents. Palestinian Christian theology has been permitted to claim the high ground of justice and prophetic tradition largely uncontested, while its actual methods have gone unexamined.

The concepts required for that examination are available across traditions. The obligation to truth that Jewish tradition calls emet is the same obligation enshrined in the commandment against false witness that both traditions share. The repentance that Jewish tradition calls teshuvah and Christian tradition calls metanoia both insist that genuine moral turning is grounded in truth, not performed ahead of it. The concept of the sustained lethal trajectory that Jewish law names with precision maps onto what multiple Christian traditions recognize as the unjust aggressor whose ongoing threat creates legitimate grounds for intervention. These are parallel developments from overlapping moral intuitions, and they are available to anyone willing to use them consistently.

The derechological contribution is to insist that these tools actually be deployed — honestly, symmetrically, and without predetermined conclusions. Not as an attack on compassion, which is genuine and morally required, but as a defense of the analytical conditions under which compassion can produce reliable moral judgments rather than misdirected ones. Mourning Palestinian civilian deaths is not only compatible with this framework; it is required by it. What the framework refuses is the move from mourning to verdict without the analytical work that the distance between those two things demands.

A grief that mistakes itself for a verdict is not justice. It is sorrow with a predetermined conclusion — and both the tradition these books invoke and the people whose suffering they describe deserve better than that.




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  • Tuesday, March 17, 2026
  • Elder of Ziyon

I was interviewed by Lauri Regan at the Middle East Forum podcast. The topic was the Palestinian draft constitution, which is a much more dangerous document than you might realize - it is essentiially designed to help destroy Israel, not build a Palestinian state. 

Here's the interview:




Here are the slides.

Monday, March 16, 2026

From Ian:

Profiles in Terror
For those who need reminding, the late 1970s were a truly awful stretch for the United States of America: from stagflation at home to the Soviet Union and friends on the march in Afghanistan, Africa, and Central America, to the Khomeini revolution in Iran. David Frum's account of the period, How We Got Here, should be required reading for anyone under 40 now complaining that Ronald Reagan's conservatism didn't amount to a hill of beans in staving off national disaster. We were, as they say, thisclose.

Now comes Jason Burke, a veteran journalist for the United Kingdom's Guardian, with a timely reminder that the early 1970s also stank. The Revolutionists is an extensively reported chronicle of the leading figures of the time in violent pursuit of radical change, whether communist revolutions in Europe and elsewhere or the eradication of the state of Israel. Burke makes a plausible but understated case that the terrorism problem that seized the world by the lapels on September 11, 2001, has to be understood in the context of its origins and evolution over the previous 30 years.

Burke's subtitle is "The Story of the Extremists Who Hijacked the 1970s." The operative word is "hijacked," not in a metaphorical sense but literally, as in smuggling guns and bombs aboard commercial airplanes, commandeering them shortly after takeoff, forcing pilots to fly to hijacker-friendly Middle East destinations, and demanding of governments the release of previously captured and incarcerated extremists plus millions in ransom. Mostly, the hostages survived, but only after being thoroughly terrorized by the hijackers' threat to blow up the airplane and its passengers, sometimes seat-belted for days in their own excrement on a blisteringly hot tarmac with little food or water, sometimes subjected as well to deranged lectures on the justice of the Palestinian cause or the class conflict leading inevitably to proletarian revolution. It is astonishing now to read of the seeming ease with which armed extremists passed themselves off as ordinary passengers through minimal security.

There were literally hundreds of such attempted hijackings, the vast majority of them successful, in the period from 1968 to 1980—that is, in the wake of the stunning Israeli victory over massed Arab armies in the 1967 Six-Day War, which landed Israel control of the West Bank, Gaza, the Sinai Peninsula, the Golan Heights, and Jerusalem. In Burke's telling, Palestinians who cheered the onset of the war wept at its conclusion—feeling "grief equivalent to a bereavement," as he writes. One was Leila Khaled, who would go on to join George Habash's Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, where she won fame as an early female perpetrator of hijackings and other terror attacks in Europe. The "armed struggle" was on.

Without making a polemic of it, Burke destroys any lingering doubt about the interconnectedness of the violent extremists of the time. Most terrorists in the Palestinian cause were homegrown, but their training camps and havens in the Middle East hosted communist radicals from West Germany, Central America, and Japan. Fusako Shigenobu, leader of the communist Japanese Red Army, became so concerned about security in her homeland she moved her base of operations to Beirut under the PFLP umbrella. The notorious "Carlos the Jackal" was born Ilich Ramírez Sánchez from Caracas, Venezuela. In the Arab world, he was known as Saleem Mohammed. His surge to global notoriety began in London in 1973 with his assassination attempt on Joseph Edward Sieff, the Jewish president of the retail chain Marks & Spencer.
Andrew Pessin: Tobias Gisle, We Need to Talk About the Most Influential Academic Fraud of the 20th Century
The Middle East is not the only part of the world that endlessly complains about being hard done by the West, and nurses and nurtures a culture of revanchism and militarism against the mean West from inside dictatorships. This is an apt description of Russia. This is exactly Putin’s ideology. All poor Russia needs is a little more space. A little more Lebensraum for the biggest country in the world. Therefore, justice demands that it should be free to invade its neighbours at will. Most people in the West alternate between disbelief and fear at this ludicrous suggestion. Yet this is exactly what the Arab-led activism championed by Said suggests. The reasoning is equally absurd. The reason that the Arabs and Muslims have such rubbish lives is that Arab lands used to be colonized long ago and that there is that terrible humiliation of there being a tiny Jewish state covering 0.17% of “Arab lands.” Instead of laughing in disbelief, we give Said and all his acolytes the best professorships in the lands of the West. Incidentally, when Said tried to claim victimhood for the Arabs, he missed something fundamental about Israel and Zionism. Israel may have been established by desperate refugees fleeing persecution, but the secret of Israel’s success is precisely that it is not revanchist. If I would go around complaining all day that the Nasser regime stole my children’s grandfather’s house in Alexandria, all Israelis would tell me to get a life and move on. Of course, we remember the Holocaust and the persecution, but this is not the focus. We are looking to the future, not looking for revenge.

Orientalism theory is black and white thinking with the goal of fermenting victimhood and revanchism among Arabs and Muslims. This is reflected in Said’s political legacy, where he bravely stood against the chance at statehood for Palestinians in the 1990s so that we could have a few more decades of good ol’ war instead.

It’s high time we rid ourselves of this theory. Said and Foucault both explain nothing and do nothing for the Middle East. The entire field needs a new paradigm. The real Middle East needs theories that challenge each and every phenomenon that hurts the people who live here. Authoritarianism, oppression of women, reliance on oil, sectarianism, and of course political Islam and the other debunked, useless ideologies of the Middle East. We don’t need any more theories that blame Israel and the West for all the problems of the region. We certainly don’t need “orientalism.”

The idea is the theoretical equivalent to people insisting they are “anti-racist” while at the pro-Palestine demonstration with Hamas flags fluttering and “Khaybar, Khaybar, ya Yahud” filling the Autumn breeze.

Enough with the indulgence of this poison.
Khaled Abu Toameh: Hamas Crimes No One Talks About
As international attention is focused on the Iran war, Hamas has stepped up its crackdown on the Palestinian people as part of its effort to reassert control in Gaza. Hamas has murdered, arrested, assaulted, or summoned for interrogation dozens of Palestinians for allegedly speaking out against the terror group.

Gaza-born political activist Hamza Howidy wrote last week: "Since the war with Iran began, Hamas's thugs have intensified their brutal, savage, barbaric campaign against Gaza's own residents. The people in this photo are just some of many who have been executed, shot, kidnapped, or brutally tortured in recent weeks. The list of atrocities grows by the day, and the sheer sadism on display goes beyond anything comprehensible.... The 'crime' those people committed? Saying their own opinions."

"What makes this even worse than the suffering of those victims itself is the silence of the people who built entire careers screaming about Palestinian suffering. The same commentators, the same 'human rights advocates,' the same influencers, and the same media outlets that spent months positioning themselves as the moral conscience of the world, packaging Palestinian pain into clout, followers, and book deals, have gone completely dark....The Palestinians left to die under Hamas's boots are apparently the wrong kind of Palestinians."

Another Gaza-born political activist, Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, wrote on March 12: "Hamas terrorists conducted a parade in their trucks inside the al-Mawasi tent zone for the displaced. These gunmen are the same ones who are killing, kidnapping, torturing, and shooting Gazans every single day; they're making their presence known to say "shut up & pay us taxes"! They hide in tent areas and use civilians as shields to lessen the chance of being struck by Israeli drones and air strikes."
From Ian:

Mark Dubowitz and Richard Goldberg: Glimpsing Victory in Iran
As military pressure intensifies, the political dimension becomes increasingly important. Washington is targeting its messaging to IRGC personnel, military officers, and senior officials: Surrender brings amnesty; continued loyalty risks ruin. That logic may already be visible in what appears to be Phase 2. Roughly 3,000 members of an elite protest-suppression unit reportedly received warning messages that they were being targeted. Within a day, their headquarters near Tehran’s Azadi Stadium lay in ruins.

Phase 1 degrades military power and holds hostage the regime’s economic lifelines. Phase 2 raises the cost of repression inside Iran. Drones operating over Tehran have reportedly struck and killed IRGC and Basij personnel manning checkpoint units. For the first time, repression forces may fear for their own survival just as protesters have for years.

Phase 3 could present itself in more ways than sudden collapse—perhaps looking more like sustained erosion: a weakened regime, tightening economic pressure, diplomatic isolation, and eventually internal upheaval. The announced selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader may accelerate that erosion rather than stabilize it. A polished cleric in the mold of Hassan Rouhani could again provide the IRGC political cover and revive illusions of moderation abroad. Mojtaba offers no such illusion. His elevation signals a harsher, weaker, more corrupt order—and therefore a more fragile one.

Phase 3, however, belongs to the Iranian people. Without sustained American pressure, Mojtaba and the IRGC will declare victory. That cannot be allowed. The regime has always feared domestic unrest more than external attack, which is why it repeatedly shuts down internet access during protests. Restoring connectivity would give Iranians a tool that the regime understands all too well.

Protesters also need the means of self-defense. January’s massacre of more than 30,000 Iranians by regime security forces remains a brutal reminder of what peaceful demonstrators face when confronting a coercive state. The United States should declare its commitment to Iran’s territorial integrity while arming the opposition—not only among Kurdish, Baluchi, and Arab minorities in the periphery, where local resistance could tie down security forces, but also among Persians in major cities.

With continued dominance in the air and deep penetration on the ground, Israel should continue striking the repression apparatus while America supports the political conditions for internal fracture.

The Islamic Republic has survived for 47 years because it has proved adaptive, ruthless, and willing to absorb immense pain. But it has never faced simultaneous leadership decapitation, military degradation, economic strangulation, regional isolation, and internal legitimacy collapse on this scale. That does not guarantee the regime’s end. It does mean that something once improbable is now imaginable: The long arc of the Islamic Republic may finally be bending toward an end. If that happens, military force will have created the opening.

Operation Epic Fury is only two weeks old. The campaign has already delivered major wins for American national security, and more are likely to emerge in coming days. But something much bigger and more historic is starting to come into view—something that can be unlocked with a little more patience from the American public as the United States degrades Tehran’s ability to wage war outside its borders and Israel degrades the regime’s ability to wage war against its own people.

Victory can be defined in many ways when a campaign delivers multiple layers of success in destroying capabilities that threaten the United States. But the ultimate goal should be enabling the Iranian people to rid the world of this radical, terror-sponsoring regime. And achieving that goal—total victory—seems ever more possible.
Josh Hammer: What is Victory in Operation Epic Fury?
At this point in the campaign, it is uncontested that wholesale regime change is the most desirable outcome. The pursuit of regime change as a goal unto itself is often now disparaged, coming in the aftermath of the failed neoconservative boondoggles earlier this century. But it ought to be axiomatic that there are some foreign regimes that behave in a manner that redounds to the American national interest, and there are some foreign regimes that behave in a manner that is contrary to the American national interest. It is natural and logical that we would wish for the latter types of regime to be heavily reformed or outright replaced — especially with the local populace leading the way.

Perhaps even more to the point: One does not take out a 37-year-ruling despot like Ali Khamenei, as the American and Israeli militaries did in the opening hours of the present operation, and not hope for full-scale regime change. Indeed, all people of goodwill should be hoping for that outcome — for the Iranian people to rise up like lions and throw the yoke of tyranny off their necks once and for all, delivering a long-sought victory for the American national interest in the process.

But it’s entirely possible that full-scale regime change won’t happen. The people of Iran just witnessed tens of thousands of their countrymen brutally gunned down during the anti-regime uprisings of late December and early January. They are an unarmed populace facing Nazi-esque regime jackboots, in the form of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij paramilitary.

All of that, then, raises one final question: Is it possible for there to be victory in Operation Epic Fury, and for the Iranian regime to be neutralized as a threat to the United States and our interests, if there isn’t full-scale regime change in Tehran?

In theory, the answer is yes. Venezuela provides a model. But in practice, the answer is murkier.

Delcy Rodriguez, the current leader, is a hardened Marxist-Leninist in the mold of her two immediate predecessors, Hugo Chavez and Nicolas Maduro. But Rodriguez has been fully cooperative with the United States since the astonishing January operation to extract Maduro for the simple reason that she has no real choice in the matter: She remains in power, yes, but only on the condition of an “offer” presented by Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio that, to borrow from Vito Corleone in “The Godfather,” she “can’t refuse.” Accordingly, Rodriguez has thus far been fully cooperative in areas such as American oil extraction and the reestablishment of diplomatic relations with the United States.

In theory, a similar arrangement is possible with a decimated, chastened regime in Tehran. And some experts predict that such an arrangement will characterize the regime in Iran a year or two from now. In practice, however, there is the ever-thorny problem that has frustrated and perplexed Westerners for decades when they attempt to reason with zealous Islamists: Radical, 72-virgins-in-heaven-aspiring Muslims do not fear death. A socialist like Rodriguez can, ultimately, be reasoned with; an Islamist like Mojtaba Khamenei (or his successor), probably not.

The cleanest solution to the Iran quagmire at this particular juncture — and the one that most clearly fulfills Trump’s “unconditional surrender” victory criterion — is indeed full-scale regime change. That is certainly the outcome that would be best for the neutralization of the Iranian threat and the corresponding advancement of the American national interest. I’m far from certain it will happen. But every alternative scenario only raises additional questions. So, like many others, I pray that the Iranian people seize this unique moment in history and take their destiny into their own hands.
Mojtaba Khamenei escaped death by seconds in same strike that killed his father
Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new supreme leader, survived the February 28 US-Israeli strike on Tehran’s leadership compound because he had stepped outside shortly before missiles hit his residence, according to leaked audio obtained by The Telegraph. The recording, attributed to a senior official in the office of the late Ali Khamenei, provides one of the fullest accounts yet of the strike that killed Iran’s former supreme leader and other senior regime figures.

According to the report, the compound was hit at 9:32 a.m. local time in what appeared to be a coordinated attempt to kill members of the Khamenei family and senior Iranian leadership at the same time. The Telegraph said the audio was independently verified and came from remarks delivered by Mazaher Hosseini, identified as head of protocol in Ali Khamenei’s office, during a March 12 meeting in Tehran.

Hosseini said Mojtaba Khamenei had gone into the yard moments before the strike and was heading back upstairs when the building was hit. According to the report, he suffered a leg injury, while his wife, Zahra Haddad-Adel, and their son were killed instantly.

The leaked recording also described the deaths of other people inside the compound, including Mojtaba Khamenei’s brother-in-law, Misbah al-Huda Bagheri Kani, and Mohammad Shirazi, the chief of Ali Khamenei’s military bureau. Hosseini said the strikes hit multiple parts of the office complex simultaneously, including residences associated with several members of the Khamenei family.

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This blog may be a labor of love for me, but it takes a lot of effort, time and money. For 20 years and 40,000 articles I have been providing accurate, original news that would have remained unnoticed. I've written hundreds of scoops and sometimes my reporting ends up making a real difference. I appreciate any donations you can give to keep this blog going.

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