Friday, August 29, 2025

  • Friday, August 29, 2025
  • Elder of Ziyon
For years I have been discussing the If/Then Fallacy. Its usual formulation is that if only Israel would do X, then everything would be peaceful and wonderful.

Examples include:

1988:  If Israel would put forward a credible peace plan, then no one will blame Israel if the PLo rejects it. (Proven wrong at Camp David.)

2000: If Israel would withdraw from Lebanon, then Hezbollah would have no reason to exist and would no longer be a problem. (Israel did, sand Hezbollah kidnapped soldiers sparking the 2006 war.)

2003: If Israel would withdraw from Gaza, then there would be no more rocket attacks and no incentive for terrorism in Gaza.(We know what happened.)

2022: If Israel signs a maritime border agreement with Lebanon, Hezbollah would never attack because it has something to lose. (They did and Hezbollah attacked.)

2023: If Israel would lift the Gaza blockade, then Hamas would spend its time governing and would not be a threat.  (The months before October 2023 Israel had allowed more good into Gaza than at any time since before Hamas took over Gaza.

Now we have a variant from the Israeli-born Middle East advisor to Emmanuel Macron named Ofer Bronchtein.

He told Israel's Channel 12 that October 7 "would not have happened if there had been a Palestinian state."

He claims that there would be security in the region if there was a Palestinian state.

Not only is this stupid, but Bronchstein knows it. 

He said only last year that it was not possible to talk about a two state solution while the war was raging and the wounds are fresh. 
“I’m fully aware now is not the right time for Israelis and Palestinians to speak or even think about peace,” says Bronchtein. “They’re in a war, they’re losing people dear to them, and they’re mourning. There’s no empathy on either side for the other.”

He acknowledges any possible resolution isn’t imminent.  
So last year he said that there cannot be peace unless Israel and the Palestinians agree to a peace plan, and that wasn't likely,

But now he is saying not that peace is necessary for a two state solution, but a Palestinian state would magically bring peace - the exact opposite of what he said last year. 

His boss Macron obviously intends to recognize a Palestinian state next month, thinking exactly that - not that peace is a prerequisite for a state but that a state will naturally bring peace. 

The other countries planning to reward Hamas with a recognition of "Palestine" have all said the same thing themselves - they want a state because that is the way to bring peace. No Palestinian compromises, no concession from them - no, if they get exactly what they have demanded for years, then somehow peace will come.

A lot of people cannot distinguish fantasy from reality. 

In a region where compromise is judged as weakness and an opportunity for further attack, a Palestinians state is a guarantee for endless war - one where Israel cannot properly defend itself. 

How do we know this? Because Israel was not on the ground in Gaza on October 6 2023. Hamas turned the entire area into a giant military base. And Israel couldn't stop it. 

Israel can and does stop West Bank Palestinians from building tunnels and rockets. If Israel couldn't do that, what kind of idiot thinks that a Judenrein West Bank is more likely to bring peace?



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Elder of Ziyon - حـكـيـم صـهـيـون



This blog may be a labor of love for me, but it takes a lot of effort, time and money. For 20 years and 40,000 articles I have been providing accurate, original news that would have remained unnoticed. I've written hundreds of scoops and sometimes my reporting ends up making a real difference. I appreciate any donations you can give to keep this blog going.

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