Friday, August 22, 2025

08/22 Links Pt1: Politics Disguised as Science: The Credibility Crisis of IPC “Famine” Analyses in Gaza; Trump supports a rapid Israeli entry into Gaza for the sake of rescuing the hostages

From Ian:

Israel MFA: Politics Disguised as Science: The Credibility Crisis of IPC “Famine” Analyses in Gaza
On 22 August 2025, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) released an analysis declaring famine in Gaza City. Although the IPC has previously confirmed famine in other crises, this was the first time such a declaration was made for Gaza — and the first time it rested on evidence that fell far short of the standard normally required. Famine classifications are intended to be exceptional, applied only when mortality and malnutrition rates clearly and indisputably exceed the most extreme benchmarks.

In this case, however, the declaration was issued not only without evidence that would justify it under the IPC’s own criteria, but also in contradiction to more recent data that was publicly available before the report's release yet was ignored in the analysis. Instead of reflecting current conditions, the classification relied on outdated figures while downplaying or disregarding newer information that directly undermined the famine classification. Among the evidence available by the alleged cut-off date of 15 August 2025 — but omitted or marginalised in the IPC report — were:
July malnutrition prevalence remained below "famine threshold": the complete analysis of July MUAC screenings, released by the Nutrition Cluster on 8 August, showed average malnutrition rates well below the 15% threshold. Nevertheless, the IPC disregarded these full — and lower — results, basing its famine classification instead on an earlier, partial dataset that covered only about half of the children screened that month (for a detailed explanation and sources see below this introduction).
Massive increase in aid deliveries and distributions: starting from the second half of July, there was a sharp rise in the volume of food and humanitarian supplies entering Gaza, accompanied by expanded distribution mechanisms that reached much wider segments of the population.
Dramatic drop in market prices: food prices, which had spiked in June and the first weeks of July, started to decline in the end of July and fell steeply in first weeks of August — a clear sign of improving availability and access.
Details about measures implemented by Israel in recent months and reported in real time - including daily humanitarian pauses (mentioned in a misleading manner as a single event), opening of crossing and supply routes, fixing of water and electricity lines, and more (see full details in this document by COGAT). In addition, IPC experts claimed Gaza City had crossed the famine mortality threshold by assuming vast numbers of unreported malnutrition deaths — yet the figure they cited, six reported deaths per day, is thirty times lower than the famine threshold set by IPC methodology, underlining the implausibility of their claim.

By disregarding this evidence and proceeding instead on the basis of selective and obsolete figures, the IPC placed its methodological integrity in serious doubt.

Yet this declaration cannot be understood in isolation. It represents the culmination of a pattern that has unfolded throughout the IPC’s reporting on Gaza since October 2023: thresholds blurred until they lost their meaning, principles applied inconsistently, and projections repeatedly framed to highlight worst-case outcomes. The Gaza City famine classification is simply the starkest manifestation of this erosion of standards.

The discussion below provides a detailed explanation of how malnutrition rates were misrepresented, together with an overview of the IPC system, the principles it is meant to uphold, and the ways in which those safeguards have broken down in practice. It also reviews the methodological flaws that have characterised IPC reporting on Gaza since the beginning of the war.

When the data doesn’t support the narrative – ignore it
One of the key arguments used by the IPC’s Famine Review Committee (FRC) to classify Gaza City as Phase 5 “Famine” was that in July the rate of acute malnutrition among children (GAM by MUAC) allegedly reached 12.7–19.9 percent, above the 15% famine threshold. This was cited as one of only two criteria (out of three) for which the IPC claimed there was clear evidence that famine thresholds had been crossed.

That figure, however, was derived from only about half of the data actually collected in July — five sub-samples covering 7,519 children described on pages 49-50 of the FRC report. Their weighted averages ranged from 12.7 to 19.9 percent, with a combined weighted average of roughly 16 percent, just above the threshold.

By contrast, a later Nutrition Cluster presentation released on 8 August reported the full July sample of 15,749 children. Those results showed unweighted and weighted GAM rates of 13.5% and 12.2%, respectively — both well below the famine threshold.

In other words, the IPC was aware that the complete July data placed Gaza City’s GAM rate below the threshold. Nevertheless, it based its famine classification on the earlier, partial sample — concealing the fact that even by its own (methodologically questionable) MUAC measure, Gaza City did not cross the famine threshold in July.

If the IPC had acknowledged this, its entire famine classification for Gaza City would have collapsed.
UN-backed report based on ‘fabricated’ view of Gaza ‘famine,’ Israel says
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, a tool associated with some 25 global partners, including U.N. agencies, said on Friday that it confirmed with “reasonable evidence” that there has been “famine” in Gaza since Aug. 15.

“After 22 months of relentless conflict, over half a million people in the Gaza Strip are facing catastrophic conditions characterized by starvation, destitution and death,” per a new IPC report.

“Between mid-August and the end of September 2025, conditions are expected to further worsen with famine projected to expand to Deir al-Balah and Khan Younis,” it stated.

The Israeli government stated that “although the IPC has previously confirmed famine in other crises, this was the first time such a declaration was made for Gaza, and the first time it rested on evidence that fell far short of the standard normally required.”

“Famine classifications are intended to be exceptional, applied only when mortality and malnutrition rates clearly and indisputably exceed the most extreme benchmarks,” it stated.

The Jewish state said that the “famine” determination contradicts recent, publicly available data and uses “outdated figures while downplaying or disregarding newer information that directly undermined the famine classification.”

The Israeli Foreign Ministry stated that the IPC “bent its own rules to fit Hamas’s campaign. They lowered famine thresholds, ignored criteria and laundered Hamas lies.”

“Meanwhile, reality tells a different story: over 100,000 aid trucks have entered Gaza since the war began. Markets are stocked, food prices are falling,” it said. “The IPC could not find famine, so they forged one.”

“You know who is starving? The hostages kidnapped and tortured by uncivilized Hamas savages,” stated Mike Huckabee, the U.S. ambassador to Israel. “Maybe the over-fed terrorists could share some of their warehouse full they stole with hungry people, especially the hostages.”

António Guterres, the U.N. secretary-general, stated that there were “no more excuses,” and an “immediate ceasefire, the immediate release of all hostages and full, unfettered humanitarian access” were necessary.

“Just when it seems there are no words left to describe the living hell in Gaza, a new one has been added: ‘famine,’” he stated. “This is not a mystery. It is a man-made disaster, a moral indictment and a failure of humanity itself.”

The IPC report is based on data from July 1 to Aug. 15 and states that the threshold to determine a “famine” has been met despite a lack of mortality figures available.


Trump: 'Probably' less than 20 hostages left alive in Gaza
There are "probably" fewer than 20 hostages left alive in Hamas captivity out of the 50 being held by the terror group, US President Donald Trump said at a White House press conference on Friday.

Trump shared that he had predicted Hamas would begin to refuse deals when they were down to 20 living hostages and said the terror group was now only offering 10 hostages for a deal.

"If [Strategic Affairs] Minister [Ron] Dermer, who doesn't bother to speak with or meet the hostage families, knows something different, he should have updated the families first," the Hostages and Missing Families Forum said in a statement.

Directly in response to Trump, the forum said that each of the 50 hostages represents an entire world. "Our sacred duty is to prevent sacrifice and bring them all home."

Israel's hostage coordinator, Brig.-Gen. (res.) Gal Hirsch, denied that Israel had any knowledge to suggest that further hostages had been killed in Hamas captivity. He shared that, to Israel's knowledge, there are 20 living hostages, two hostages' conditions are of great concern, and 28 are no longer alive.


Ask Haviv Anything: Episode 37: The genocidal claim of genocide with Adam Louis-Klein
Many of our Patreon subscribers have asked us to address the campaign against Israel that accuses it of genocide, colonialism and so on. This episode is the beginning of our deep dive into examining these questions.

What do anti-Zionists argue? What do they want? When is it antisemitic and when legitimate? And how do we know?

We posed these questions and more to anthropologist Adam Louis-Klein, a compelling commentator on academic and elite anti-Israel narratives and ideas. The resulting conversation is a fascinating and helpful dive into these ideas and the problems they pose for Jews in the modern age.

This episode is sponsored by the Frozen Chosen, Haviv’s supportive community in Minnesota, to honor Noi Maudi, 29, a US-Israeli dual citizen from the southern Israeli town of Yated who taught in the community for 5 years and was a beloved teacher and friend. Noi was murdered on October 7 along with other members of his family, including his nephew and brother-in-law, at a music festival near Kibbutz Nirim.

He was an impactful and beloved Hebrew teacher at the Talmud Torah of St Paul Minnesota from 2015 to 2021.


Israeli Government, Opposition Push Back on UN Claim of ‘Famine’ in Gaza
However, the Israeli government rejected the claims.

So , too, did opposition figure Benny Gantz — who left a national unity government over difference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He posted on X: “As former IDF Chief & Minister of Defense – I can declare unequivocally: Israel has never adopted the policy or even enabled the practice of purposeful starvation.” He said that the UN was acting on a political agenda.

Gantz also endorsed the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), which has delivered over 130 million meals to Gaza, using American funding and Israeli backing, as well as private security contractors.

The Israeli government has rejected such claims before, noting that many “starving” Palestinian children cited in the international media actually had other ailments. Netanyahu has even threatened to sue the New York Times over such claims.

One exchange between a UN official and a reporter illustrated the degree to which the UN is willing to allow Palestinians to starve, rather than to work with Israel:

The UN has also rejected offers of help from the GHF.


Party officials follow out Dutch FM after he resigns over lack of Israel sanctions
Five ministers and four state secretaries followed Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp out after his efforts to issue new sanctions against the Israeli leadership were blocked by other government members, Dutch media reported Friday.

After failing to garner support for his plans on Friday, he announced, "I'm going home now and I'm going to write my resignation letter," according to De Telegraf.

“I felt resistance in the cabinet against more measurehttps://www.jpost.com/international/article-863603s as a result of what is happening in Gaza City and the occupied West Bank at the moment,” he later said in a statement following his resignation.

Sources told De Telegraf that Veldkamp quit despite a compromise that would have seen an import ban on Israeli settlement goods.

House of Representatives MP Eric van der Burg was reportedly “flabbergasted” by Veldkamp’s decision, according to Dutch media site NRC.

Social Affairs Minister Eddy van Hijum, Interior Minister Judith Uitermark, Education, Culture, and Science Minister Eppo Bruins, Health, Welfare, and Sport Minister Daniëlle Jansen, and several junior ministers, all from the New Social Contract (NSC) party, resigned shortly after, according to Dutch News.

Critics of the NSC
Critics of the NSC have claimed that the mass walkout is a sign of incompetence.

"NSC could cause a single-vehicle accident in an empty parking lot," a coalition source told De Telegraf.

"NSC called itself the party of good governance, but now it's leaving the Netherlands rudderless," Hijum reportedly said. "We fully realize that the consequences are enormous."

Prime Minister Dick Schoof will give a statement to the House of Representatives on Friday evening to address the situation, Dutch media reported.


After cutting ties with Israel, Barcelona mayor barred from entering country
Barcelona Mayor Jaume Collboni has been blocked from entering Israel, the Population Immigration and Border Authority announced on Friday.

According to a statement from PIBA, Collboni had been slated to land in Israel late Friday night, but was informed that he would not be granted entry.

PIBA said that his entry refusal is “in accordance with the Entry into Israel Law” and in coordination with the Foreign Ministry and the National Security Council, without elaborating further.

The Ynet news site reported that Collboni had been planning to visit the Yad Vashem Holocaust museum in the capital as well as Palestinian areas of the West Bank. According to the ARA newspaper in the Spanish city, he had been invited by the mayors of Bethlehem and Ramallah.

In May, Barcelona’s city council voted to cut institutional ties with the Israeli government and suspend its friendship agreement with the city of Tel Aviv, citing alleged violations of international law and the rights of Palestinians.

Collboni said at the time that “the suffering and death in Gaza over the past year and a half, and recent attacks by the Israeli government, make any relationship unviable.”


‘Gaza City serves as Hamas’s main military and governing stronghold’
An Israeli military official has outlined the framework for the IDF’s upcoming operation in Gaza City, which is designed to complete the goal of eliminating Hamas as a governing and terrorist-military ruling entity in the Gaza Strip.

“We will be moving into a new phase of combat, a gradual, precise and targeted operation in and around Gaza City, which currently serves as Hamas’s main military and governing stronghold,” the official said, speaking on Wednesday.

He noted that five active-duty divisions would lead the operation, supported by a call-up of approximately 60,000 reservists beginning in September.

“All that said, in Gaza, the main forces operating on the next stage of the operation will be our active duty forces. We will have five divisions operating in Gaza in different operations focusing on Gaza City,” the official said.

He added that following the drafting of 60,000 reservists, the IDF will have a total of 120,000 reservists drafted in the coming months.

The source noted that the latest operations are targeting areas where the IDF has not previously conducted missions, and where Hamas continues to maintain terrorist infrastructure. “Hamas still possesses the capability—and the intent—to strike at our soldiers and our civilians,” he said, pointing to recent rocket fire aimed at Israeli population centers.

He stressed, “Our mission remains clear. It hasn’t changed a bit for almost two years: To bring our hostages home, every single one of them and to defeat Hamas, to dismantle its governing and military capabilities. To make sure they can never conduct another Oct. 7.”

The source described a plan carried out “in a gradual way,” adding, “It includes an expansion of our ongoing humanitarian air efforts and everything we’ve been doing nowadays with our humanitarian efforts. This is a top priority for us to ensure that Gazan civilians are kept out of harm’s way. And we will be providing advance warnings in order to distance the population from active combat areas.”

He added, “This is something we’ve done since the beginning of the war and we don’t plan on changing our tactics anytime soon. We will be acting in a way that is gradual and careful, making sure we provide the civil population with an opportunity to get out of harm’s way.”

The military official described the plan as including large-scale humanitarian steps that “simultaneously provide everything needed: food, shelter in areas and working on providing new field hospitals. This will be happening in the coming weeks.”

He detailed preparations to expand aid distribution sites, create humanitarian corridors, and provide advance warnings to allow civilians to evacuate active combat zones. Since Oct. 7, he noted, almost two million tons of aid have entered Gaza on over 100,000 trucks. “We want aid to reach the people of Gaza and not Hamas,” he said.


Sirens sounds as Yemen’s Houthis fire missile, drone at Israel; no injuries reported
Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels fired a drone and a ballistic missile at Israel on Friday, the military said. The drone was downed after several failed interceptions on Friday afternoon, while the missile apparently broke up in mid-air during its descent some four and a half hours later.

There were no injuries reported in either incident, and the missile fragments caused minor damage.

The drone set off sirens in several communities near the borders with the Gaza Strip and Egypt. The military said it made several attempts to shoot it down before successfully intercepting it.

Footage showed the drone exploding in the air over southern Israel, while a fighter jet swooped past.

Shortly before 9 p.m., the Houthis fired a missile that set off warning sirens across much of central Israel as many were sitting down for the Friday evening Shabbat meal.

The IDF confirmed that the missile likely broke up in the air during its descent.

The Israeli Air Force launched several interceptor missiles to shoot down the fragments, the military said.

There were reports that fragments landed in several locations in central Israel. The IDF says it was investigating.

The Magen David Adom rescue service said there were no reports of injuries.

The Houthis took responsibility for carrying out both the ballistic missile and drone attacks.


WATCH: CNN Relies on Debunked USAID Report To Claim Hamas Doesn't Systematically Steal Aid
CNN anchor Pamela Brown cited a debunked U.S. Agency for International Development report to falsely claim that there is no evidence Hamas systematically steals aid in Gaza.

"There was an internal analysis conducted by USAID that showed, according to this U.S. government report, that there was no widespread theft by Hamas. They looked into 150 incidents of waste, fraud and abuse. And that's what the finding was. It was by USAID," Brown said Friday on The Situation Room.

But that USAID analysis was conducted by career staffers and not the agency's inspector general, an independent entity that provides oversight of U.S. foreign aid programs. The career staffers relied on official information from U.N. agencies and "completed" the report just days before the Trump administration shuttered USAID.

By contrast, the USAID inspector general has obtained evidence that Hamas "commandeered U.N. aid trucks," embedded terrorist operatives in "U.N. agencies or at U.N. facilities," and ensured humanitarian goods were "directly delivered to Hamas officials," senior U.S. officials and congressional staffers briefed on the issue told the Washington Free Beacon on Aug. 7. Those findings are based on information from a variety of sources that include "aid workers and other whistleblowers on the ground who may not feel comfortable reporting through their employers' reporting chain due to fear of retaliation," according to a source familiar with the office's operations.

Brown's statements came during an interview with Chapin Fay, a spokesman for the U.S.-backed aid distribution organization Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF). Fay had argued that the GHF aid sites are safer and can better evade theft and violence than those run by the U.N.

Brown also repeated the claim from the Gaza Ministry of Health, which is widely known to be an extension of Hamas, that a fatal stampede at an aid site was caused by tear gas fired by aid workers. She stressed that "the Gaza Ministry of Health, for its part, says that it is not an extension of Hamas."




Australia’s Anti-Israel OBSESSION – What’s Behind It? | Avi Yemini Exposes the Hypocrisy
🎙 In this explosive episode of The Western Spirit Podcast, Avi Yemini from Rebel News joins Ariel Whitman to uncover the hypocrisy behind Australia’s anti-Israel obsession.

From recognizing a Palestinian state to sanctioning Israelis and even banning Israeli officials, Australia’s government has shocked allies and outraged Jewish communities worldwide. But what’s really driving this hostility?

Chapters
00:00 Introduction to Avi Yemini and Current Events
01:14 The Hairdresser Incident: A Case of Discrimination
06:56 Political Climate in Australia: Anti-Israel Sentiment
11:32 The Growing Threat to Jewish Communities in Australia
17:21 Election Dynamics: The Impact of Trump on Australian Politics
20:57 Protests and the Role of Jewish Identity
25:15 The Rise of the Woke Right and Its Implications
29:24 Shifting Perspectives on Global Conflicts
32:14 The Role of Media in Shaping Opinions
34:28 The Dynamics of Political Alliances
37:27 The Impact of Social Media on Political Discourse
41:44 Debating Israel's Position in Global Politics




travelingisrael.com: I Showed Gaza’s Restaurants… Instagram Shut Me Down
Instagram deleted my video about restaurants in Gaza and even restricted my account. The video had 600,000 views, no hate, no violence—just food. I even added proof with links to the restaurants’ own Instagram pages.Meanwhile, mainstream media spreads fake photos of “starvation” in Gaza. Like, share, and subscribe to help spread the truth.


travelingisrael.com: Islamization. The West Is Watering The Tree On Which It Will Be Hanged.
Islamization is rising in the West while Christianity collapses in the Muslim world. By 2050, Islam may be the world’s largest religion. Multiculturalism and political correctness silence debate—but Western values like democracy, women’s rights, and equality must be defended. Europe risks repeating Lebanon’s collapse.




Southend MP and council leader urge police to prevent ‘intimidatory’ anti-Israel march
A local MP and council leader in Southend have called on Essex police to prevent a planned march through the area by anti-Israel demonstrators, citing language promoting the event which referred to the city as a “horrific Zionist area”.

Bayo Alaba, Labour MP for Southend East and Rochford, described how he was “urging the police to prevent this event from taking place, as it seems this protest may be carried out in bad faith and used to intimidate residents.

“The right to peacefully protest is a fundamental principle of our democratic society, and it should never be misused to promote hate.

The march has been advertised in affiliation with a variety of groups, including “Southend Action for Palestine”, “Palestine Pulse”, “London Irish Brigade”, and both the Peterborough and Cambridge branches of the Palestine Solidarity Campaign – although not the Southend PSC branch itself.

Whatsapp messages sent along with the flyer included the sentence: “Southend is a horrific Zionist area, and if uou [sic] came to the last demo, you will have already witnessed this.” It is unclear which individual or organisation shared the flyer via whatsapp with this language.

Mr Alaba’s statement referenced this language, saying “I must be clear, I am not in support of this protest going ahead. I am appalled by the description of Southend as a ‘horrific Zionist area’.

“It is crucial that the Jewish community feel safe in the city they call home.”

Councillor Daniel Cowan, the Labour leader of Southend on Sea city council, also condemned the planned march, saying: “on 30 August…there is a planned protest march along Southend sea front and through the high street. I have asked Essex Police for this to be stopped. This is advertised as a peaceful protest yet is being shared with hideous, racist language describing our city.

“I contacted Essex police, expressing my belief that for some the “protest” is an antagonistic stunt designed to harass and intimidate decent people in our city. I cherish the right to peaceful protest but I will not condone an event that is being promoted as a protest in a ‘horrific Zionist area’ that people would have ‘witnessed’ had they attended the last demo.”

In April, a similar demonstration was organised by anti-Israel campaigners, which was widely criticised by Jewish communal organisations due to its choice to march on the Sabbath in the immediate vicinity of the city’s synagogues at a time when congregants would be emerging from prayers. The Community Security Trust described it as “a deliberately antagonistic act”.


‘Worker intifada’ at Microsoft leaves some Jewish employees feeling abandoned
As anti-Israel protests erupted at Microsoft against the company’s tech contracts, including the use of artificial intelligence, with the Israel Defense Forces, Jewish employees and resource members told JNS that there has been radio silence from higher-ups regarding their safety.

Anti-Israel protests at the computer software giant called for a “worker intifada”; vandalized Microsoft’s campus in Redmond, Wash., with red paint; and were charged with “trespassing, malicious mischief, resisting arrest and obstruction.” The melee resulted in 18 arrests.

It has left some Jewish employees feeling fearful, angry and abandoned.

“There has been no response or acknowledgement within Microsoft to the Jewish ERG or otherwise,” Steven Phillips, founder and executive director of JewishERGs, a global network of Jewish employee resource groups, told JNS. He added that “no employee has told me that there has been any internal communications” about the incident.

Phillips told JNS that a number of Jewish employees at Microsoft “avoided going to the campus” in the wake of protests, which entered their third day on Thursday and were said to have been organized by the employee-led No Azure for Apartheid group.

No Azure for Apartheid is part of No Tech for Apartheid, according to its website. No Tech for Apartheid is supported in part by the nonprofit group MPower Change, of which anti-Israel activist Linda Sarsour serves as executive director.

A Jewish project manager at Microsoft who asked to remain anonymous told JNS: “There’s no way that I can feel safe at work when protesters are on campus calling for a ‘workplace intifada.’ In the span of a day, they escalated from protest to property destruction—and our senior leadership has said nothing.”

The employee added that “I have not seen or heard anything from our senior leadership.”




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