Iran was weeks away from a fully functional nuclear bomb, including all weaponization components (update) ~ Elder Of Ziyon

Sunday, June 15, 2025

Iran was weeks away from a fully functional nuclear bomb, including all weaponization components (update)

From journalist Doron Kadosh (translated):

We published in this morning's journal on Galei Tzahal with @efitriger:

Intelligence assessment presented to the political echelon: Iran is weeks away from a bomb if it decides to do so - this is the "golden intelligence" that was received before the outbreak of the attack

Intelligence assessment presented to the political echelon before launching the operation: Iran is one decision away from a bomb - and if it decides - it might be able to assemble a first nuclear bomb within weeks only.

In recent months, "golden [irrefutable] intelligence" was compiled, as security sources define it to us - this was a warning of war. And this is the intelligence: a covert operation that Iran led to develop one of the critical components for a nuclear bomb - what is called the "weapons group." And here it needs to be explained: to reach a nuclear bomb, several components are required:

The first is the enriched uranium known to us, which Iran has enriched at an accelerated pace in recent years, and has reached a level where it holds enough enriched uranium for 15 bombs, days away from enrichment to a high military level.

And the additional component, the weapons group, is the components that supposedly the Iranians did not develop in a declared manner - because it necessarily indicates a desire for nuclear weapons. The IDF succeeded in uncovering the covert Iranian program, which was at a high classification level - and its purpose was to develop the components of the weapons group.

The Iranians recruited the best scientists for the covert program - whom they divided into several working groups. Each working group received a different project to work on, which is one of the components of the weapons group. These are scientific, technological projects, whose engagement leaves no doubt: whoever deals with these specific subjects - is not looking for anything other than nuclear weapons.

The scientists' working groups began working about a year and a half ago - at the end of 2023-beginning of 2024, meaning: after October 7th. The conclusion reached in Israel: the Iranians made the decision to reach nuclear bomb components after Hamas's attack in the Gaza envelope.

In recent months, there was a significant development in the covert program, which was exposed throughout to Israeli intelligence sources. The scientists reached the testing phase and began conducting successful experiments on the components they were entrusted with. In Israel they understood: reaching the testing phase is critical, and the fact that the tests are defined as successful - brings the Iranians significantly closer to the point where they are one decision away from the ability to assemble a bomb.

Intelligence sources clarified to the political echelon: we are entering the dangerous space where Iran is one breakthrough away from a bomb. If it decides - there is a probability that it will succeed in reaching a bomb within weeks only, and another warning that was voiced in closed rooms: it's possible that we don't know everything, and Iran is in an even more advanced state than we think.

This was the intelligence that the State of Israel could not live with peacefully - and the decision was made: launching a preemptive attack.

Almost certainly the "weapons group" referred to here are the components needed to weaponize a nuclear device that have absolutely no civilian purpose. These are:

The implosion system - precisely timed explosive charges that compress the fissile material to achieve critical mass

Detonators and timing mechanisms - the complex electronics needed to trigger the explosives simultaneously

Engineering components - the mechanical design that holds everything together and ensures proper function

These are often considered the most technically challenging aspects of nuclear weapons development, requiring sophisticated expertise in explosives, timing, and precision engineering.

Iran looked at October 7 as the incentive to finally fulfill its promises to destroy Israel.

Israel didn't have merely the "right" to attack Iran. It had the moral obligation to do so, now.

UPDATE: Also read this:

[IAEA chief] Grossi started warning everyone that Iran would soon become a nuclear power, one ruled by religious fanatics pursuing the Shi’a vendetta against the world’s Sunnis for killing the last descendant of Muhammad at Karbala back in 680 AD, and for whom the destruction of Israel is key to supremacy over the entire Middle East.

When the Israelis realised that European leaders — but also Russia and China, and indeed the Biden administration — ignored Grossi’s increasingly alarmed warnings that a nuclear Iran was only months away, they waited for Trump to intervene. In this, they were immediately reassured when the US sent B2 bombers to its Diego Garcia base, each capable of destroying even Natanz.

But then Trump met resistance from the isolationists in his own administration, while he himself evidently did not want to begin his tenure with a war. Instead, he appointed a New York lawyer with no Iran or nuclear expertise to negotiate with the Islamic Republic. Unfortunately, Steve Witkoff was so poorly informed that he immediately accepted the enrichment level that Obama had negotiated, and which Trump had vehemently attacked as much too dangerous.