Thursday, June 19, 2025

06/19 Links Pt1: How Israel Stunned Iran; The Fordow Conundrum; ‘This is a war crime’: Herzog tours Beersheva hospital hit by Iranian missile

From Ian:

How Israel Stunned Iran
Israel stunned and hobbled Iran when it pulled off an intelligence and military operation years in the making that struck high-level targets with precision.

Guided by spies and artificial intelligence, the Israeli military unleashed a nighttime fusillade of warplanes and armed drones smuggled into Iran to quickly incapacitate many of its air defenses and missile systems.

"This attack is the culmination of years of work by the Mossad to target Iran's nuclear program," said Sima Shine, former head of research at Israel's spy agency, the Mossad, and now an analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies.

An intelligence officer involved with selecting individuals and sites to target said Israel used the latest artificial-intelligence (AI) technology to quickly sift through troves of intelligence.
Israeli Secret Services Used Fake Phone Call to Lure Iran's Air Force Elite to Their Deaths
Israel's Mossad secret service used a fake phone call to trick 20 members of Iran's air force senior staff into gathering at a single location before taking them out in a targeted strike, Israel's Channel 12 reported on Monday.

Using falsified communications through Iranian channels, the Mossad triggered what appeared to be an emergency meeting that successfully drew the entire senior leadership of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force, including Commander Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, his deputies, and key technical personnel, into a fortified bunker outside Tehran.

The bunker was hit in a precision airstrike. There was no one alive to give the command to strike back.
10 Things They Don’t Want You to Know About Israel’s War With Iran
7️⃣ The Iranian TV Station Israel Hit Used to Broadcasts Torture and Forced Confessions
One of Israel’s precision strikes hit an IRIB (Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting) facility in Tehran. Western headlines breathlessly called it a “TV station.” What they didn’t tell you is that IRIB is a documented propaganda tool of the Iranian regime, broadcasting forced confessions, videos of prisoners tortured into false admissions, and televised “trials” of Iranian dissidents.

This wasn’t about silencing journalism.
It was about disrupting the machinery of state violence. IRIB is to journalism what ISIS beheading videos are to filmmaking.

8️⃣ Iran Used Cluster Bombs — A War Crime
During its retaliation, Iran used cluster munitions — weapons banned by over 120 countries — on Israeli civilian areas. These weapons are designed to scatter dozens or hundreds of small bombs over a wide area, maximizing civilian casualties.

Why didn’t the UN issue immediate condemnations?
Why didn’t the UN issue immediate condemnations? Because when the target is Israel, the rules don’t apply. The use of cluster bombs against civilians is the very definition of a war crime, yet major international human rights organizations have not even acknowledged it. The media is completely silent.

Meanwhile, for over 15 years, the same media and “human rights” groups have relentlessly pushed false allegations that Israel uses white phosphorus indiscriminately in civilian areas—claims never backed by credible evidence. White phosphorus is not banned under international law when used according to the rules of warfare. Yet these very organizations have chosen to ignore the clear use of cluster munitions by Iran, a weapon widely banned precisely because of its horrific impact on civilians.

This glaring double standard exposes a selective application of human rights rhetoric—one that protects certain actors while turning a blind eye to others’ crimes.

9️⃣ Hundreds of Iranian Regime Loyalists Are Already Living in Canada — More Are Coming
While Iran fires advanced missiles at Israeli civilians, hundreds of Iranian regime-connected insiders are living peaceful, suburban lives in Canada. Many have links to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and more are seeking entry.

Where’s the urgency from Canadian government?
The same Canadian activists who scream about settler colonialism and apartheid won’t mention that Tehran’s ideological enforcers are buying homes and starting businesses in their own neighborhoods. Islamic Republic leaders seeking shelter in Canada now that is about to fall.


Seth Frantzman: Iran exploits Israel's urban defense challenges as it seeks to terrorize civilians
Israel has been resilient in these trying times. Emergency crews have responded immediately. The IDF’s Home Front Command and its Search and Rescue Brigade have been on the scene immediately. In addition, medics, including volunteers, have helped. Later in the day on June 19 other volunteers could be seen helping at the site.

These include the group Lev Ahad, which has been active for two decades, doing important work in times of crisis. I remember them back in 2009, in the days before Operation Cast Lead, when they were helping in Sderot. In those days before Iron Dome, Hamas' short-range rockets often hit houses in Sderot. The volunteer group would come and help people clean up and assist the elderly and others who need support.

This is what is special in Israel. People respond, and they don’t panic. Lives are saved and people are able to evacuate. Large numbers of people have been affected. Casualties continue to grow, especially injuries from the attacks on June 19. However, overall, the Iranian missile salvos appear smaller. Nevertheless, Iran has a deadly arsenal.

The Ramat Gan strike is yet another example of how bad things can get here. We have air defenses, but they can’t stop every attack. Israelis are staying home, and more businesses are not reopening. However, the overall Home Front guidelines have been relaxed slightly since Wednesday. It is not clear if they will continue to relax the guidelines.

Iran would like to terrorize Israeli citizens. It also wants to strike at Tel Aviv, the heart of Israel’s hi-tech success story and business power. It’s not always clear how Iran chooses its targets or how precise Iran’s missiles are.

Nevertheless, it is clear that Iran has shifted its fire a bit, targeting northern Israel and also southern Israel more than Tel Aviv and central Israel in the last two days.
A Lesson in Victory for the West by Abe Greenwald
Via Commentary Newsletter sign up here. The Western world has needed a righteous victory for a long time. After the myriad complications of the Iraq War and America’s retreat from Afghanistan, the idea of attainable victory disappeared entirely. That’s why American policymakers dismissed it out of hand as a possibility for Ukraine when Russia invaded. Victory had become, instead, an abstract concept to mock and question. “What would victory even mean?” asked those opposed to the use of American power during any given crisis.

Many such people genuinely didn’t know the answer because they hadn’t seen victory in their lifetime. Western countries had taken a moral leap of their own, determining that any decisive action was unprincipled. Last October, I wrote, “In foreign affairs, we have grown unsettled by the idea of clarity itself. As if the burdens and consequences that come with resolve are certain to be disastrous, and ambivalence is certain to yield a more favorable outcome.”

But this doesn’t hold for people under existential attack. Clarity is all they have. It’s victory or death. So the Jewish state tuned out all the internal and external noise and destroyed the cretins who threatened its survival. It has been successful because Israel is in fact brilliant, and its enemies are witless.

With a fresh example of real-world victory comes, one hopes, the returned prospect of future victory. This would apply acutely to the U.S. should Donald Trump decide to join in Israel’s effort. There’s little limit on the good that can be accomplished by an American-led West that no longer asks what victory means.
Phyllis Chesler: Time for America to act
Now is the time for America to take a more active role and join Israel in bringing down the Iranian theocracy.

Pundits are warning that if America joins the war in any visible way, American soldiers will be attacked. Have they been asleep for the last half century?

Iran has been at war with America since 1979, when the first leader of the Islamic Republic, the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, took Americans hostage in the U.S. embassy in Tehran 46 years ago. It funds terrorist proxies and helps them strategize their attacks in the Middle East. Iran has directly and indirectly blown up and murdered countless American soldiers stationed in the Middle East at the U.S. Embassy in Beirut and the Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia. Iran has also funded and supplied weapons and know-how for Taliban attacks against American and coalition soldiers in Afghanistan.

Nevertheless, Neville Chamberlain’s ideological descendants in the American Congress endorse so-called “peace,” isolationism and non-involvement.

Here’s an idea: The wokest of the woke in the United States want America to rewrite history, erasing those bits they feel are bad or wrong. At the same time, they want the United States to commit to restorative justice and reparations for all previous violations of human rights.

If so, then they should support America’s efforts to overthrow the current ayatollah, Ali Khamenei, to make up for the American and British overthrow of Iran’s democratically elected leader, Mohammed Mossadegh, in 1953, and the installation of the shah in his place.

All for the sake of oil.

For a change, let’s allow the long-suffering Iranian people to decide what kind of government they want.
Trump Says He'll Decide on Iran Strike 'Within the Next Two Weeks'
President Donald Trump will decide at some time within the "next two weeks" whether the United States attacks Iran, the White House said Thursday after the president and his national security team gathered for a meeting in the Situation Room.

The White House determined "there's a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future" and is waiting to see if diplomacy pans out before launching a strike on Tehran's major nuclear sites.

"I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks," Trump said in a statement read by Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt during Thursday afternoon's White House press briefing.

"The president's top priority right now is ensuring that Iran cannot obtain a nuclear weapon and providing peace and stability in the Middle East," Leavitt said.

Leavitt made clear that any potential nuclear deal with Iran would include a full ban on uranium enrichment and block the Islamic Republic from ever having the materials to produce an atomic bomb. The Trump administration laid out similar conditions before Israel's preemptive strike last week, but Iran categorically rejected the terms of that offer. There is as yet no sign that the ongoing war has softened Tehran's position.

Trump said in recent days he would only accept Iran's "unconditional surrender," drawing a defiant response from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The ayatollah threatened instead to inflict "irreparable damage" on American forces in the region if the United States joins Israel's fight.

Even with a two-week window for negotiations, Trump could decide to green-light a U.S. strike at any point. The United States this week moved significant military assets into the region, including the B-2 stealth bombers that would be needed to destroy Iran's Fordow nuclear enrichment plant, which lies deep within a mountain and under 300 feet of concrete.

Iran, meanwhile, shows no sign of backing down or giving into U.S. demands. If the Trump administration's interlocutors fail to make progress on a diplomatic solution, the president could launch an attack well before the deadline expires.

Ali Larijani, a senior adviser to Khamenei, described Trump's surrender order as "a big mistake," saying on Thursday afternoon that Tehran is prepared for war with America.

"We do not seek war, but we are passing through a critical stage and must stand firm to defend ourselves and punish aggressors," Larijani said in an interview on state-controlled television.
Mike Pompeo: Israel is doing the world a favor – now the US must give any help necessary to end Iran's nuclear threat
This is important not just for containing Iran, but also because of the message it will send Iran’s autocratic allies, Russia and China, about America’s commitment to restoring deterrence.

Make no mistake: Russia and China are also — at least metaphorically — being bloodied by Israel’s success.

The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria last year already dealt a blow to this alliance’s strategic depth in the region; the prospect of a weakened or collapsed Iran puts an even larger dent in the armor of this dangerous partnership.

More importantly, by demonstrating American resolve on the issue of nuclear proliferation, dictators like China’s Xi Jinping will have to think twice before making any aggressive or destabilizing moves — for example, in the South China Sea, or toward Taiwan.

To critics who argue that America is on the verge of being dragged into yet another Middle Eastern entanglement, it’s worth remembering that wars generally start when bad actors perceive weakness — not the other way around.

Policies that impose costs for aggression and bad behavior are crucial to preventing wars.

It’s what kept us from having to send large numbers of servicemen into combat during the first Trump administration, and it’s what will ultimately make us safer and keep us off the battlefield — provided we do what is necessary to stand with our ally Israel.
Ex-MI6 chief says ‘strong case’ for US attack on Iran without UK military involvement
Ex-MI6 chief Sir John Sawers has said a “strong case” exists for Donald Trump to attack Iranian nuclear sites with bunker-busting bombs, but that the UK should not get involved with any action.

Sawers, who was head of the Secret Intelligence Service from 2009 to 2014, also said it was likely that the Americans would use the Diego Garcia base, leaving Keir Starmer with a “straightforward decision” to give the go ahead for them to use it.

Speaking on Thursday he said of the possible US action “in some ways it would be better if they got on with it because then the wider conflict between Israel and Iran would have a chance of drawing to a close.”

During an appearance at a Chatham House think-tank event, he was asked how he thought the UK should respond.

“I don’t think we need to get involved in this,” he said. “Frankly, if American bombers do strike from Diego Garcia.. the fact is we’ve just negotiated a long term deal so there could be an American base on Diego Garcia.

“I don’t see Keir Starmer saying ‘but you can’t use it’. That is a straightforward decision, very straightforward.”

His comments came after Lord Ricketts, the government’s national security adviser between 2010 and 2012, said air strikes on the Tehran regime would only “reinforce their determination” to get a nuclear bomb.
Andrew Fox: What is Iran's strategy?
One week into the war, Israel’s tactical successes are genuine, but they do not yet ensure strategic victory. Iran’s missile firepower has diminished but has not been neutralised. Its nuclear programme is damaged but not destroyed. Iran’s proxies have suffered significant losses, yet their networks remain intact. The remnants of the Iranian military are bloodied, not knocked out.

What is Iran’s most dangerous course of action? In a worst-case scenario, Tehran could unleash everything: a massive second-wave missile barrage, a surge of regional proxies, strikes on global targets, or even the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. These escalatory steps would aim to inflict intolerable pain, provoke an international crisis, or compel external intervention. Such a move would represent a desperate gambit by a regime on the brink.

This is not Iran’s most likely course of action. The most probable path is more cautious: to seek a ceasefire, maintain low-level retaliatory strikes on Israel to preserve credibility, secure regime stability, and prepare for long-term recovery. Iran will likely spin any truce as a victory, rebuild discreetly, rearm its proxies, and resume its regional strategy.

Iran’s leadership believes that time is on its side. If it survives, it can restore capabilities and reassert influence. This is the logic driving its current actions: endure, retaliate just enough, and wait for the moment when it can regain the initiative. It represents a strategy of calculated resilience, not reckless escalation. In a war that is as much psychological as it is kinetic, this approach may prove to be Iran’s most potent weapon of all.
The Fordow Conundrum
Iraq’s Shiite militias face their own quandary. Preemptively attacking U.S. installations such as al-Asad airbase in Anbar province or the al-Tanf facility in southern Syria would only invite American participation, the very thing Tehran is keen to avoid. U.S. intelligence suggesting an imminent attack on American forces in the region by Iranian proxies is what led Trump to assassinate Quds Force commander Gen. Qassem Soleimani in January 2020. (Israel killed Soleimaini’s successor, Brig. Gen. Esmail Qaani, on June 13, compounding a lack of leadership for those proxy forces.)

Moreover, Quds Force-controlled militias in Iraq have their own future to worry about, and for the first time they must consider a version of that future without foreign state sponsorship. Other groups within the Popular Mobilization Forces, the umbrella group for Shiite paramilitaries in Iraq, are beholden to domestic cleric Ayatollah Ali Sistani or nationalist warlord Muqtada al-Sadr, both of whom oppose Iranian hegemony in Iraq and stand to gain if it is vitiated as a direct consequence of the current crisis. All of which puts Tehran in a bind.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump “told senior aides late Tuesday that he approved of attack plans for Iran, but was holding off to see if Tehran would abandon its nuclear program.” (Trump replied on social media that the newspaper “has No idea what my thoughts are concerning Iran!”) Khamenei will likely have to voluntarily agree to end all enrichment efforts as part of any last-ditch diplomatic agreement, forswearing the one insurance policy his regime has sought for most of its existence, or risk having enrichment efforts ended by external actors.

As Iran expert Afshon Ostovar notes, Khamenei could attempt a nuclear breakout now or bet that continued war will prompt the Iranian population to rally round the flag and defend the nation from foreign invasion. So far, the damage wrought by Israel, including strikes on the Natanz facility and the Ifsahan enriched uranium metal production line, as well as the assassination of hard-to-replace nuclear scientists, may have complicated the first option. Nor have six straight days of targeted bombing yet galvanized the second. It remains to be seen if a regime hated as much from within as it is from without will inspire personal sacrifice on the part of Iranians to save 2,700 buried centrifuges.

Israel has lit a match that it won’t extinguish. Ending this operation with Iran’s nuclear program still largely intact or salvageable would be taken as a Pyrrhic victory by the Israeli military and Netanyahu government and seen as an unworthy sacrifice by an Israeli public forced to cower in shelters. Telegraphing that Rising Lion would take “weeks, not days” was an early indication Israel has no intention of quitting until its objectives are met, with or without a helping hand from its ally.
Israel's Attack on Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program Is Fully Justified under International Law
Israel's attacks on Iran's nuclear weapons program are lawful. Several commentators contend that Israel's attack is illegal since Israel was not responding to an "imminent" nuclear attack by Iran. But this argument overlooks a critical legal principle: When two countries are already in a state of armed conflict, there is no requirement to wait for "the next attack" to be imminent.

The armed conflict between Iran and Israel has been ongoing since at least April 13-14, 2024, when Iran fired over 300 drones and missiles at Israel and, in the view of some experts, even prior to this date as the result of attacks against Israel by Iran's main proxy, Hizbullah. Then, on Oct. 1, 2024, Iran launched over 180 missiles at Israel.

While an armed conflict continues, there is no requirement to justify every attack against the enemy through the pre-war imminence test. With Iran already engaged in ongoing conflict with Israel, international law did not require Israel to wait to take military action until just before Iran either launched a nuclear missile against Israel or otherwise fired its proverbial next shot. Instead, it was legal, as well as logical, that Israel attack the enemy's most dangerous weapon system - Iran's nuclear weapons program.

Brian J. Egan, while serving as State Department legal adviser under President Obama, explained that, "In the view of the United States, once a State has lawfully resorted to force in self-defense against a particular armed group following an actual or imminent armed attack by that group, it is not necessary as a matter of international law to reassess whether an armed attack is imminent prior to every subsequent action taken against that group, provided that hostilities have not ended."

The nature of the threat Israel is addressing renders the scope of this campaign proportional as an act of self-defense. It is difficult to imagine a self-defense objective more vital than eliminating the threat of being attacked with a nuclear weapon by a state that has already launched hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones into your territory and repeatedly threatened to destroy you.

If assessed through the lens of self-defense, a military campaign focused on preventing Iran from achieving its objective of annihilating Israel is clearly proportional.
How Iran Lost
Over three decades, the hard-liners who control Iran's regime had built up what seemed like a formidable system of deterrence. They stockpiled ballistic missiles. They developed and advanced a nuclear enrichment program. Most important, they established a network of foreign proxies that could routinely harass Israeli and U.S. forces.

But Iran's hard-liners overplayed their hand. After Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, the regime's leaders opted for a campaign of maximum aggression, unleashing their proxies at Israeli targets. Israel, in turn, was compelled to expand its offensive beyond Gaza. It succeeded in severely degrading Hizbullah, the most powerful of Tehran's proxies, and eviscerating Iranian positions in Syria - indirectly contributing to the collapse of the Assad regime.

Iran unleashed the two largest ballistic missile attacks ever launched against Israel. But Israel, backed by the U.S. military and other partners, repelled those attacks and incurred little damage. It then struck back.

In just a few days, Israel has done significant damage to Tehran's military and nuclear program. Its air defenses have been destroyed or made inoperable across most of the country. Added to this is the loss of the Iranian defense establishment's brain trust. Ali Khamenei and the IRGC have lost; the regional status quo they established is finished.
Decades of Burden Obliterated in an Instant
The summer of 2015 was painful for those of us who supported Israel and who understood that the Iranian regime’s very internal legitimacy depended on Israel’s eventual destruction, regardless of papers signed at Lausanne. I lost friends that summer—politicians and others—who followed Obama’s rhetoric and who expressed that the real outrage was the audacity of Prime Minister Netanyahu to argue the threat he believed the deal represented to the survival of his country. While vacationing with my family in Alaska, I spoke by phone with Senator Cory Booker, of whom I had been an early supporter. He expressed agony over the decision, but it was clear to me that he would support it. I made clear that I was aware he did not himself believe his arguments, and that it would be the end of our relationship. But he plainly said that he could not withstand the pressure to fall in line behind the Obama White House.

It was right around that time that my family, then having lived in Israel for two years, decided to make our move permanent, relocating from the “Big Satan” to the “Little Satan,” as the Ayatollah would put it. I was no more existentially concerned about Iranian nukes than I had previously been, but the move made me appreciate the incredible and underreported efforts Israel had undertaken to delay the ultimate reckoning. In 2010, the Mossad began the assassinations of key nuclear scientists. Israel and the United States then launched Stuxnet, perhaps the most advanced cyberattack of its time, employing software to destroy 1,000 centrifuges. Israel repeatedly penetrated supply chains and sabotaged equipment. And the list goes on. Without a decade of aggressive subterfuge, Iran would certainly have arrived at the nuclear threshold many years earlier.

But in this decade, in this very month, Iran DID arrive at the threshold. There has always been controversy around the precision of intelligence on nuclear capacity, but keep three things in mind: First, the IAEA found Iran in non-compliance with its non-proliferation obligations literally on the morning of June 12, hours before the attack began, and has long made clear that there is no valid civilian use for the type of enrichment activity underway by Iran. Second, given the achievements of the early days of the war, one would be hard pressed to argue that Israeli intelligence in Iran was anything but best-in-class. Finally, what level of certainty would Israel have needed to order the attack? Given literal billboards in Tehran counting down to the precise date of Israel’s destruction, certainly not anything approaching 100%. As an Israeli, even 1% would seem to me to be high.

As is now common in any type of crisis, this past week has transformed every keyboard warrior into a dual PhD in international relations and nuclear fission. Academic debates aside, the Islamic Republic of Iran has for decades established the motive and was nearing the means. Allowing Iran to determine the point of opportunity is beyond tolerable.

Westerners have difficulty comprehending deep theological motivation, so foreign to their consciousness. Such fanaticism is not borne of desperate circumstances. Osama bin Laden came from an upper-class family, and the 9/11 hijackers were highly educated and financially secure. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s fundamental objective was the defeat of Western Civilization, beginning with Israel. The slogan, “Death to Israel, Death to America,” is omnipresent. The regime allowed per capita income to fall roughly 75%, enduring international sanctions and diverting massive public expenditures to exporting the revolution and exploiting failed states across the Middle East. They helped Bashar Assad gas his own people. They created a “ring of fire” around Israel with their backing of Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. And they murdered hundreds of US Marines in Beirut, more than a thousand Americans in Iraq, and dozens in terror bombings of Jewish and Israeli targets in Argentina.

If Israelis doubted that fact, or deluded themselves into pretending that the danger was less than it seemed, or that it could be deterred, those illusions were shattered on October 7. Hamas knew what retaliation Israel was capable of and what the massacre would unleash. And they did it anyway.

And so Israelis learned one key lesson: Unlike the US and Soviet Union in the Cold War, Israel could not rely on deterrence. And if Israel couldn’t rely on deterrence, there was no way we could leave 200,000 rockets facing us down from Lebanon. And there was no way we could allow Iran to approach the threshold of possessing a weapon capable of destroying us.
Richard Kemp: Here in Israel, it’s very clear: Iran cannot seriously damage this nation
I have been in various parts of Israel since the start of this war and can confirm that the most widespread effect of Iran’s missile campaign has been sleep deprivation, with most salvoes fired during the night and citizens repeatedly sent running to their bomb shelters. That is not to understate the tragic deaths of 24 Israeli civilians, the wounding of many others and destruction and damage to buildings, the most recent being a direct hit on Soroka Hospital in Beersheba. As with all Iranian missile impacts in this war which have struck civilian population centres, firing at a hospital is a war crime. Tehran claimed that it was aiming at a nearby army base but there are no military installations within 2 kilometres. With all the patients inside shelters, fortunately there were only light casualties.

That is one reason why Iran’s barrages have had only limited effect so far. Israel has engineered a highly-developed alert and shelter system, and it is estimated that, had every citizen taken cover as instructed, the death toll would have been only three. There are two other reasons for Tehran’s failed counteroffensive. First, a very sophisticated intelligence and surveillance system that has been able to provide up to half an hour’s warning of most missile launches. Second, ground, air and sea based air defences. The US Navy and Air Force have made a significant contribution, and Israel’s Arrow ballistic missile defence system has been backed up by America’s Thaad and Patriot launchers based inside Israel.

Then there has been the relentless air campaign against Iran’s weapon stocks, launchers and production facilities which has taken out an estimated 40 per cent of launchers and many missiles. Iran has only managed to fire some 400 missiles since the war began, with at least 80-90 per cent successfully intercepted. Just 23 have hit urban areas.

Tehran had by far the most powerful ballistic missile capability in the Middle East, with an arsenal of 2,000-3,000, although many of these did not have the range to reach Israel. Tehran was estimated to have the capability to produce 50 missiles per month which is not adequate to meaningfully replenish its ever-dwindling stocks. In any case, probably nothing like that number can be achieved now following Israel’s attacks on production facilities.

With their military strategy failing, the ayatollahs might decide to change tack, and start using some of their short-range missiles against energy facilities or US military targets in the Gulf. Iran also has anti-ship missiles capable of attacking maritime targets in the region. It has threatened to block the Straits of Hormuz to strangle global oil trade. Any of these moves would increase the chances of President Trump’s direct intervention in the war, something that may be imminent in any case. Khamenei, now in a desperate situation, with his most trusted military advisers all dead and the IDF rampant in his skies, seems to fear that the most. His request for a meeting in the White House has been rejected and his foreign ministry is about to meet its appeasement-seeking European counterparts to discuss nuclear disarmament.

Although that will achieve nothing, the last thing the Europeans should be doing now is to throw this tottering terrorist regime any kind of lifeline. Instead they should be joining forces with Israel, at least diplomatically, to hasten the end of Iran’s war on the West, which began at the dawn of the Islamic Revolution in 1979. The best outcome is not a badly wounded Khamenei who can lick his wounds and live to fight another day, as the Europeans might like, but a more enlightened Iran under new management that does not have the arrogance to provoke a militarily stronger power and believe it can prevail.
Richard Kemp: Iran-Israel war outcome talked up by commentators that's actually highly unlikely
Given the enormous stakes Israel had no choice than to strike when it did. There are some risks you do not take. Perhaps the greatest is to allow acquisition of nuclear weapons by a fanatical religious tyranny with a track record of unrestrained violence that repeatedly declares its intention to annihilate you.

No Israelis that I have spoken to over here in the days since Israel launched its pre-emptive war doubt the need for it. Even opposition leaders, sworn political rivals of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, are four-square behind his actions, unheard of in this country.

Don't miss... Iran 'running out of missiles' as Trump calls for 'unconditional surrender'

Of course all Israelis recognise the current dangers to themselves, and almost all of them have been forced to take refuge in bomb shelters several times every day since last weekend. But they do understand they would face hugely greater dangers in just sitting back and watching Iran becoming a nuclear armed state.

Another concern is escalation into a region-wide conflict. That is highly unlikely. Most Arab countries, themselves in fear of Iran gaining nuclear weapons, are backing Israel in this fight, even though their public comments might tell a different story.

The Houthis in Yemen, an Iranian proxy, remain rampant, but are now almost completely isolated with Iran fighting for its own survival. In Iraq there is a different picture, with Tehran’s proxies there threatening to attack every US base in the country if America goes onto the offensive alongside Israel.

The US has clearly factored that into any decision on its future role in the war and has plans to act against them and their missiles if the time comes.
Why America Must Join Israel Against Iran
Entering their fifth day, Israel's sustained and extraordinary operations against Iran have demonstrated remarkable strategic precision and military effectiveness. Complete air superiority was quickly established, allowing Israel to freely target Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including reported strikes on centrifuge halls at Natanz and uranium conversion facilities at Fordow, disrupting enrichment capacity and neutralizing key military leadership. In response, Iran’s estimated salvo of 180 ballistic missiles (likely more by now) launched from western Iran saw over 85% intercepted by Israel’s Arrow and David’s Sling systems, with U.S. naval assets providing critical support. While most missiles have been neutralized, several have penetrated, resulting thus far in approximately two dozen Israeli fatalities. The dramatic events unfolding since Thursday mark a potentially transformative moment for regional and global strategic dynamics. Given these developments and the stakes involved, the U.S. should decisively join Israeli operations to ensure the complete, swift destruction of the Iranian nuclear program. This article is not calling for the U.S. to join, it's explaining why we will.

If there is ever an opportunity for the United States to decisively shape the outcome of a critical regional conflict—one with direct and immediate implications for American security and strategic interests, as well as those of its key allies—it is an absolute strategic obligation to seize it. Hesitation, ambiguity, or delay is unacceptable policy. This is, above all, about securing U.S. national security and vital interests. Any hesitation now would represent not caution, but dangerous irresponsibility. In this regard, President Trump’s clear and decisive statements stand out sharply, a necessary contrast to the pattern of hesitation and self-defeating strategic incoherence coming out of other countries.

To fully grasp why immediate action is strategically imperative, we must clearly establish both motive and opportunity. First, preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons is an absolute and paramount American national security interest. Iran is an openly hostile regime—a declared enemy of the United States—which has actively targeted American soldiers, citizens, and interests for decades. Tehran’s sponsorship of terrorism has resulted in the deaths of hundreds of Americans, from Beirut to Baghdad, and its militias continue to threaten U.S. personnel and allies across the region, not to mention a decade of destabilization, proxy warfare, and ruthless terrorism across the Middle East. Allowing such a regime to acquire nuclear weapons would represent an unprecedented and intolerable strategic failure. Eliminating Iran’s nuclear capabilities now is thus not only justified but essential for protecting American lives, deterring further aggression, and decisively neutralizing a persistent enemy committed to harming the United States and its allies.

Beyond its direct hostility, a nuclear-armed Iran would unleash catastrophic regional consequences. Tehran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons would trigger immediate nuclear proliferation across the Middle East, compelling Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and others to urgently seek their own nuclear arsenals. Such rapid proliferation would irreversibly destabilize the region, heighten the risks of nuclear confrontation, empower terrorist proxies, and severely restrict U.S. strategic freedom of action. Immediate action by Israel and the U.S. preempts this catastrophic scenario, preserving regional stability and safeguarding vital American interests.


UN Human Rights Council leaders repeatedly tell Iran critics to be civil, relevant
Jürg Lauber, the Swiss ambassador to the United Nations, used his privilege as president, for 2025, of the U.N. Human Rights Council to repeatedly chide experts addressing the council and tell them to maintain “necessary dignity and respect.”

He opted to do so only when pro-Israel speakers referred to the Iranian regime’s documented offenses and not when critics of the Jewish state accused it of crimes.

David Michaels, director of U.N. and intercommunal affairs at B’nai B’rith International, told JNS that he wasn’t surprised to be berated as he addressed the council, given its “track record.”

“The council has a long history of chiding and interrupting speakers, particularly from the pro-Israel side, whether that’s member states or the chair,” Michaels told JNS.

Michaels, whose pre-recorded video message was played before the council on Tuesday, told JNS he followed Lauber’s responses in real time.

He told the body that the U.N. Commission of Inquiry’s latest report about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict—which claims that Israel is conducting a Gazan “extermination” campaign—“accuses Israel and Israel alone of undermining another people’s identity, survival and ties to a land.”

“It accuses Israel and Israel alone of the crime of ‘extermination,’” he said in the recorded message, “and it accuses Israel and Israel alone of possible ‘genocidal intent.’” He added that the council had yet to discuss explicit Iranian regime threats to destroy Israel.


After four days, rescuers find remains of Ukrainian mother killed in Bat Yam
Israeli rescue forces recovered on Thursday afternoon the remains of Maria Peshkurova, 31, a Ukrainian national who was killed when an Iranian missile hit a residential building in Bat Yam on June 15.

“A body was found at the site of the missile strike in the city and has been transferred to the Institute of Forensic Medicine,” the Bat Yam Municipality confirmed in a statement.

“It is believed to be Maria Peshkurova, 31 years old, who was killed as a result of the deadly impact. She is the ninth fatality in the incident, which has become the largest site of destruction ever caused by a missile strike in the State of Israel,” the central Israeli city stated.

The family came to Israel from Odessa on a medical tourism visa in 2022 “and became an integral part of the Bat Yam community,” it continued. “The Bat Yam Municipality shares in the family’s deep sorrow.”

Peshkurova’s daughter, Anastasia (Nastia) Borik, an 8-year-old first grader, was being treated for leukemia at Sheba Medical Center’s oncology unit.

The girl died along with her grandmother, Olena (Yelena) Peshkurova, 54, and her cousins, Konstantin Totvich, 10, and Ilya Peshkurov, 15.

Four Israelis were also killed in the pre-dawn missile attack. It was the single most lethal Iranian strike on Israel since the start of the fighting on June 13. In total, 24 civilians have been killed and hundreds have sustained injuries in more than 400 Iranian missile attacks across Israel.


Did an Iranian missile scatter 80 mini-warheads across Israel?
The Israel Defense Forces is examining whether a Khorramshahr-4 missile was among those Iran fired at Israel on Thursday morning.

The Iranian Khorramshahr-4 missile, first unveiled in May 2023, has the capability to scatter approximately 80 small rocket projectiles—each roughly the size of standard artillery munition and comparable to the well-known Grad rocket. IDF officials are investigating whether this weapon system was deployed in Thursday morning’s missile barrage.

Contrary to Iranian claims, military analysts say the technology does not entail true multiple independently-targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) capabilities such as those possessed by the United States and Russia. Instead, the system functions as conventional ammunition dispersal over wide areas—operating more like cluster munitions than precision-guided weapons.

The medium-range ballistic missile’s declared range reaches 2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles), with a 1,500-kg. (3,300-pound) warhead and an accuracy level of several dozen yards from its intended target. It is 13 meters (close to 39.4 feet) long and 1.5 meters (about 4.9 feet) in diameter.


Heavy damage, injuries as Iranian missile hits Beersheba hospital; dozens hurt in central cities
Iran fired a barrage of some 30 ballistic missiles early Thursday, scoring a direct hit on Israel’s main southern hospital, the Soroka Medical Center, and two other impacts in the central cities of Holon and Ramat Gan that wounded dozens of people, including six in serious condition.

The Magen David Adom emergency service said that a man, 80, and two women, both in their 70s, were among six people seriously hurt. Two people were moderately injured, and at least 42 others suffered light injuries from shock waves and shrapnel at the various impact sites. In addition, 18 people were lightly injured as they scrambled to bomb shelters when sirens went off.

The barrage was the latest from Iran as it bombards Israel with ballistic missiles. Israel began attacking Iranian nuclear and military sites last week, citing the immediate existential threat they pose.

Soroka Medical Center is the main hospital in Israel’s south.

The hospital’s director general Prof. Shlomi Kodesh told the media, “A missile hit the old surgical ward building at Soroka. It’s a relatively old building that had been evacuated in recent days.”

He added, “There is widespread damage to other buildings at the hospital. All patients and all staff were in shelters. The several injured we have are lightly hurt, mostly from the blast shockwave.”

Eli Bin, head of the Magen David Adom ambulance service, said a floor at Soroka that was hit had been evacuated of patients only the day before amid the war.

“Many lives were saved,” Bin said.

Iran claimed that the ballistic missile that hit Beersheba’s Soroka Hospital was aimed at an adjacent military and intelligence headquarters. Reuters reported that the claim was made by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

There are no Israeli military facilities in the vicinity of Soroka Hospital. The IDF’s Southern Command base is located over two kilometers away, and there is an under-construction army base just over a kilometer away.


‘This is a war crime’: Herzog tours Beersheva hospital hit by Iranian missile
Israeli President Isaac Herzog visited Soroka Medical Center in Beersheva on Thursday, hours after an Iranian ballistic missile hit it, in what the head of state denounced as a war crime.

“I arrived at Soroka Hospital in Be’er Sheva this morning, to be greeted by Director of the hospital, Prof. Shlomi Kodesh, along with doctors, nurses, and patients, Jews and Muslims, from all walks of life from across the beautiful Negev,” Herzog said in an English-language statement.

“We stood together and looked at the destruction and devastation caused by an Iranian missile fired indiscriminately with the sole intention to take innocent lives in a hospital,” he continued. “This is a war crime!

“We see two things,” Herzog said, sharing pictures from the visit to Soroka. “We see the face of evil and terror spread by the Ayatollahs in Tehran, and at the same time we see the resilience and strength of Israeli society, united in our desire to see all the peoples of this region live in peace.”

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said in a statement following a visit to Soroka on Thursday afternoon that he received “many phone calls” from his counterparts around the world “condemning this crime.

“The Iranians are doing this time and again during the last days,” he noted. “We are attacking military objectives, nuclear program objectives, ballistic missile objectives. And they are specifically and deliberately targeting civilians.”

“This is clearly a war crime. It reflects the Iranian regime’s consistent strategy, they are deliberately targeting civilian population, civilian targets, civilians, children, elderly people,” Sa’ar said.


From heart tissue to DNA samples, Weizmann scientists mourn work vaporized in Iran attack
On Sunday morning, after a sleepless night, Prof. Eldad Tzahor from the Weizmann Institute of Science in Rehovot went to check the site where his lab had stood until the day before.

Overnight, an Iranian ballistic missile had directly hit the Weizmann Institute. While nobody was killed, the attack destroyed two buildings — a life science building and an empty building that was still under construction. Dozens more were damaged.

Established in 1934 by Israel’s first president and prominent scientist, Chaim Weizmann, the Weizmann Institute is a world-leading multidisciplinary research institution in the natural and exact sciences.

Iran is believed to have targeted it in response to Israel eliminating several nuclear scientists in the effort to prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear bomb.

Some 45 labs were wrecked, including Tzahor’s, whose research focuses on heart biology. A senior academic from Weizmann who wished to remain unnamed told the economic news outlet Calcalist that the estimated cost of building an empty laboratory facility is around $50 million. Providing it with the proper equipment could cost another $50 million.

What Tzahor found before his eyes on Sunday morning was a scene of utter destruction.

“It was a war zone,” Tzahor told The Times of Israel over the phone. “Everything in our beautiful institute was covered in glass and pieces of metal.”

Tzahor’s lab, 22 years of work, scientific samples, including thousands of heart tissue from both animals and patients, DNA and RNA samples, and more, were gone.

When the researcher spotted a refrigerator that seemed mostly intact among the ruins, he could not help but try to save something.


IDF strikes Iran’s Arak heavy water reactor, Natanz site used for nuclear development
The Israeli Air Force bombed Iran’s Arak heavy water reactor Thursday morning, along with a second strike on the Natanz enrichment facility and dozens of other military sites overnight, the military announced as an operation aimed at destroying the Iranian nuclear program entered its seventh day.

According to the Israel Defense Forces, a wave of overnight strikes involved 40 fighter jets dropping 100 munitions on dozens of Iranian military facilities in Tehran and other areas of Iran.

The IDF issued a warning ahead of the strike on the Arak reactor and urged residents in nearby areas to flee.

“The strike targeted the component intended for plutonium production, in order to prevent the reactor from being restored and used for nuclear weapons development,” the military said.

The research reactor was only partially built, with Tehran informing the UN nuclear watchdog that it planned to begin operating the facility next year.

The IDF later released footage showing the strike.

Israel separately said it struck another site around Natanz it described as being related to Iran’s nuclear program.

Iranian state TV said there was “no radiation danger whatsoever” from the attack on the Arak site. An Iranian state television reporter, speaking live in the nearby town of Khondab, said the facility had been evacuated and there was no damage to civilian areas around the reactor.

Heavy-water reactors pose a nuclear proliferation risk because they can easily produce plutonium which, like enriched uranium, can be used to make the core of an atom bomb.


Commentary PodCast: The Anti-War Crowd Takes a Hit
Donald Trump says he doesn't start wars; he ends them. That may be the promise made to him by the Israelis in the Iran matter—that an American strike against the Fordow nuclear site will be the ultimate act of peacemaking. And will be a great blow to the noisy but apparently ineffectual anti-war crowd on the right.
FreePress: Everything You Need to Know About Iran’s Nuclear Program
Eli Lake and nuclear weapons expert David Albright discuss the Islamic Republic’s arsenal and whether or not Israel can destroy it on its own.

It’s hard to keep up with the onslaught of information coming out about the Iran war. That is doubly true of the details of Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

Israel has claimed that Iran was on the cusp of weaponization and has enough enriched uranium to produce nine bombs or more. Is that true? And if it is, how far has that program been set back? Most urgently, is it possible for Israel to destroy the nuclear weapons program on its own? Or will America have to get involved?

These are the kinds of questions Eli Lake posed to physicist and nuclear weapons expert David Albright when he joined me on a Free Press livestream. No one is more qualified to tackle these issues than David, a former IAEA inspector and founder and president of the Institute for Science and International Security.




Victor Davis Hanson: Israel-Iran War Will ‘Be For Naught’ if the Regime, Nuclear Program Survive
Regardless of whether Israel has the capabilities to decimate Iran’s entire nuclear program, or if the United States needs to become further involved in the war and provide Israel with “bunker-buster” bombs, one thing is clear: “If this war should end with the Iranian regime intact and the elements of its nuclear program recoverable, then, in some ways, it will be all for naught,” argues Victor Davis Hanson on today’s edition of “Victor Davis Hanson: In His Own Words.”

“It is surreal. If we had this conversation five years ago and I said to you, ‘the Iranian nation—that is huge compared to Israel, 10 times the population—the Iranian nation has lost all control of the Houthi terrorists and they are themselves neutered. Their surrogates in the West Bank, Gaza are neutered. They're gone, Hamas as a fighting force. The formidable, the terrifying Hezbollah cadres, they're inert.

‘“‘There is no Russian presence. It's not a patron. It is not a protector. It's not a power in the Middle East. It's tied down in Ukraine. And Iran itself, the formidable powerhouse of the Middle East that evoked terror all over, has no defenses....'

“And we're down to a single critical issue… if this war should end with the Iranian regime intact and the elements of its nuclear program recoverable, then, in some ways, it will be all for naught.’”

00:00 Introduction: A Historic Moment in the Middle East
01:40 The Iranian-Israeli Conflict: A Surreal Scenario
02:08 The Current State of Iran and Its Allies
03:21 Israel's Strategic Moves and the Critical Issue
04:25 The Role of the United States and Potential Outcomes
06:20 Conclusion: The Future of the Middle East
07:17 Closing Remarks and Call to Action


‘This is a war crime’: Sharri Markson reacts to ‘devastating’ Iran strike on Israeli hospital
Sky News host Sharri Markson discusses the “devastating” Iranian strike which hit a hospital in southern Israel during the mid-morning hours.

Soroka Hospital in southern Israel has been smashed by an Iranian missile as both countries continue to exchange fire.

“This is a war crime. Israel has only been targeting Iranian nuclear and military sites, while Iran has deliberately been killing civilians,” Ms Markson said.

“This hospital strike – just hours ago – is the most devastating act of destructive intent so far.

“It shows this evil regime has to be stopped.”


Israel’s early attacks left Iran’s capacity to respond ‘limited’
Liberal Senator Dave Sharma says Israel “got in early” in its war efforts against Iran.

Mr Sharma told Sky News host Sharri Markson that Israel’s early attacks on Iran meant that its “capacity” in response is more limited.

“Iran’s capacity to respond has been much more limited than might’ve been expected.”


‘Cynicism is part of our attitude’: Missile hits Israeli hospital
Press Office former director Daniel Seaman discusses the impact of Iranian missile attacks in Israel last night.

“They attacked Israel twice through the night, I think they were very kind not to do this in the middle of the night just before we went to sleep … that cynicism is part of our attitude here,” Mr Seaman told Sky News host Sharri Markson.

“The first attack, there were no real casualties, the second one they hit in Tel Aviv area, and the other one is in the hospital in Soroka, which completely destroyed the whole part of that hospital.


‘Extraordinary’: Israel’s war efforts against Iran to be one of the greatest ‘of all time’
Israel National Security Council Former director Dr Shany Mor discusses Israel’s astonishing military accomplishments against Iran.

Mr Mor said the entire operation against Iran is “extraordinary”.

“When the history of this operation is written, I think it will be one of the great operational successes of all time.”




Israel Police shuts down foreign broadcasts that aired missile impact sites
Israel Police officers were dispatched to halt the broadcasts of foreign media channels who revealed exact locations of Iranian missile impacts, Israeli authorities said after Thursday morning’s barrage.

“Israel Police units were dispatched to halt the broadcasts—including those of news agencies through which Al Jazeera was airing illegal transmissions,” according to the statement.

The move was taken per the policy of Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and in consultation with Israeli Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi to “maintain the safety and security of citizens,” it said.

The Islamic Republic and its terrorist proxies are known to monitor public broadcasts to confirm missile hits and improve the accuracy of attacks.

“The Israel Police will not allow harm to the security of the state or the safety of the citizens of Israel,” Thursday’s police statement concluded.

Last month, Israeli lawmakers voted to extend a temporary order that allows the banning of the Qatari channel’s operations in the Jewish state. However, the broadcaster is known to use cameras operated by press agencies, including the Associated Press, to circumvent the legislation.

“I call on on everyone watching Al Jazeera, on all citizens, to notify the police,” Ben-Gvir said from Soroka University Medical Center in Beersheva, which took a direct missile hit, on Thursday.

“This morning in Tel Aviv, there was an incident where equipment was confiscated,” added the minister, who oversees the Israel Police. He added: “There is a clear policy: Al Jazeera endangers state security.”




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This blog may be a labor of love for me, but it takes a lot of effort, time and money. For 20 years and 40,000 articles I have been providing accurate, original news that would have remained unnoticed. I've written hundreds of scoops and sometimes my reporting ends up making a real difference. I appreciate any donations you can give to keep this blog going.

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