Lebanese Rocket Attack On Israel: Iran's Third "Message" In A Week? (Daled Amos)

Wednesday afternoon, 3 rockets were fired from Lebanon into Israel. Two of them made it into Israeli territory, landing in Kiryat Shemona. One of them landed within Lebanon.

It soon became clear that the rockets were launched by Palestinian factions -- not  by Hezbollah:

#Israel-#Lebanon: 'Rockets were fired by Palestinian factions, not Hezbollah, no deeper escalation for the moment,' i24NEWS correspondent Jonathan Regev reports pic.twitter.com/mNBlRF0Qeh

— i24NEWS English (@i24NEWS_EN) August 4, 2021

As i24NEWS points out, even given that the rockets were not launched by Hezbollah, the fact remains that those rockets could not have been launched without the permission of Hezbollah.

And Iran.

Which might account for the timing of the attack. After all, it was only Tuesday that Ebrahim Raisi was inaugurated as President of Iran.

Maybe Raisi -- and Iran -- are trying to send a message.

In an article last month in the Jerusalem Post, Yonah Jeremy Bob suggested that Israel's successful attacks on Iran's nuclear reactors are having an effect on more than just the reactors themselves and on Iran's nuclear program.

Israel's attacks may have an effect on US policy towards Iran and on Biden's eagerness to restart the Iran Deal:

Washington’s premise for rejoining the deal without prior fixes of loopholes was that there was no way to stop the Islamic Republic from obtaining a nuclear weapon besides that specific diplomatic solution.

One of the reasons this was Biden’s strategy was another premise: Any military action to set back Tehran’s nuclear program would either be too costly in terms of Iranian responses, would flat out fail or would only slow – not stop – the ayatollahs.

But the four (known) attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and officials have hobbled the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program far more than most of the general public realizes.

From the Iranian perspective, where they have an established record of successful manipulation and exploitation in terms of their nuclear program, terrorism, kidnapping and expanding their influence -- the Iranian government finds itself in a position of being repeatedly stymied, and embarrassed, by Israel.

Meanwhile, Iran is immensely embarrassed by the attacks and feels it is negotiating from a far weaker position than it believed it would be in. Without a real imminent threat to hold over the West, why would the West give in to Tehran on any new concessions that it wants?

Enter Ebrahim Raisi.

Over the past few months, the previous Iranian president Rouhani has been signaling an imminent agreement on the renewal of the Iran Deal.

Yet, so far -- nothing.

While Rouhani had the reputation of being a "moderate," Raisi is known for cracking down on dissidents and for his alleged role in a series of extrajudicial political executions.

This rocket attack on Israel could be a risk-free way for Raisi -- and Iran -- to assert themselves.

That would be in the context of Tuesday's incident when a tanker ship was seized by suspected Iranian gunmen in the Gulf of Oman near the port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, and the drone strike last week on an oil tanker off the coast of Oman -- also attributed to Iran. That second attack killed two crew members from the UK and Romania.

The Jerusalem Post article suggests

Biden administration officials are starting to consider whether it might be possible to keep Iran’s nuclear program “in a box” for a very extended period even without the JCPOA.

It is not clear what the source is for this analysis, but Iran does appear to be making a point to dispel such an assumption.

The rocket attack might be part of that.

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