Saturday, August 01, 2026

07/31 Links Pt1: Why Isn’t Trump Finishing the Job in Iran?; Hamas ‘disarmament’ deal is more Trump fantasyland; Evyatar David recalls captivity, being forced to dig his grave

From Ian:

Why Isn’t Trump Finishing the Job in Iran?
In a completely unforeseen development, Lucy has once again yanked the football away from Charlie—sorry, President Donald Trump has once again backed away from his threats to annihilate Iran and opted for more diplomacy.

We were also shocked—shocked!—to learn one of the alleged reasons Trump decided to stop bombing Iran on Friday night: a shortage of key munitions. Indeed, The Washington Post, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Axios, and CNN all ran stories over the weekend on the supposed “munitions” shortfall, reportedly raised by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine during a meeting with the president last week.

“Any major operation against Iran will face challenges because the U.S. munitions stockpile has been significantly depleted by Washington’s ongoing defense of Israel and support for Ukraine,” the Post reported Caine as telling the president. “Intensifying the war could dangerously drain the Pentagon’s already diminished stockpile of Patriot antimissile interceptors and other air defense munitions in the Middle East,” was the Times’ gloss on the same meeting. CNN and the Journal corroborated the claims about Caine, with CNN adding that Vice President JD Vance also warned Trump against resumption of the war. In an “analysis” article posted on Monday, CNN’s senior political reporter, Aaron Blake, argued that the question of “munitions stockpiles” had become “pivotal” to U.S. planning. Blake linked to an April analysis from CNN, which argued that there was now a “near-term risk” of the United States “running out of ammunition” in a conflict with a near-peer adversary such as China.

So, is the United States just too short on ammo to continue fighting? Unsurprisingly, the answer is that there is a partial truth here—but one wrapped in a whole lot of BS and spin.

The first point to make is that much of the media coverage—presumably guided by figures such as Colby—is intentionally conflating “munitions” with “air defense munitions,” used to defend against drones and ballistic missiles. U.S. inventories are classified, but most media coverage refers to estimates from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, which, according to CNN, “closely align” with classified U.S. data. Here’s a table on “key munitions” stockpiles from CSIS’s estimates published in April, at the conclusion of the intensive wave of fighting:

Of these “key munitions,” the Tomahawks, JASSMs, and PrSMs are all high-end standoff (i.e., offensive) weapons, for which the United States has plentiful cheaper substitutes. The concern is specifically with high-end air defense munitions such as Patriots, THAADs, and SM-6s (used to defend ships from missiles and drones).

However, none of these shortages precludes further operations against Iran. In U.S. military doctrine, air defense is not intended to provide an indefinite shield against drone and missile strikes; given enough time, any sufficiently capable enemy can overwhelm air defenses—a problem known as “overmatch.” The purpose of air defenses is to protect U.S. and allied forces long enough to suppress and destroy the enemy’s launch capability. Indeed, this was precisely the point reportedly raised by CENTCOM chief Adm. Brad Cooper during the president’s recent war council. According to The Wall Street Journal, Cooper “believes the U.S. can cope with the limited stocks of Patriot and other air defense interceptors because stepped-up U.S. strikes, if they are approved by Trump, would blunt Iran’s ability to launch large numbers of missiles.”

What is true—and what we suspect was the basis of Caine’s reported warning—is that munitions shortages do somewhat raise the risk of combat operations. “The United States and Israel definitely still have the capacity to conduct operations, but they’re going to have to maybe accept a little bit more risk than they have in the past,” Colby Badhwar, an independent defense analyst and fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told The Scroll in an interview. “They’re going to have to get in a little closer using things like small-diameter bombs, JDAMs, and glide bombs. The United States still has a lot of munitions available, but they definitely will have to be a little bit more judicious, perhaps, in how they execute and plan operations.” Indeed, as the CSIS report quoted above notes, “the United States has enough missiles to continue fighting this war under any plausible scenario.”
Jake Wallis Simons: Hamas ‘disarmament’ deal is more Trump fantasyland
It’s all an obvious strategy to buy some time while embedding itself even more deeply amongst Gaza’s civilians. There’s even word for it: “Hudna”, or “truce”, which in Hamas parlance means “strategic pause”. Yet Trump is apparently so keen for progress that he’s willing to play along. Forgive me if I do a little sick.

To the detail, which as usual with Trump remains rather vague. The four-page plan, which reportedly has 15 points, sets out a phased disarmament for the jihadis – sorry, I’m struggling to keep a straight face here – mirrored by a reciprocal IDF withdrawal from its current positions behind the “Yellow Line” buffer zone.

Weapons are to be handed over to a transitional body before being removed from Gaza, the Strip is to be fully demilitarised and, in the words of The Donald: “The International Stabilization Force will work with a new Palestinian police force to take responsibility for Gaza being safe for its residents and its neighbours.”

The most obvious of many practical questions presents itself right away. Where is this “Palestinian police force” going to come from? The Palestinian Authority, which was routed by Hamas in a bloody coup in 2007, is shambolic, corrupt, inept and supportive of terror, if another flavour of terror to that perpetrated by Hamas. Disarming the group, as the IDF discovered, means risking the lives of a great many troops.

It means going house-to-house in unfamiliar territory, amid booby-traps, tunnel shafts, snipers and child soldiers, and forensically searching hundreds of thousands of properties for arms. Israeli troops were willing to risk their lives in Gaza, as they were defending their families. Would Palestinians really do the same?

Even if the creation of such a force was realistic, it would take up to a year to recruit, train, equip and deploy. During that time, Hamas would take advantage of the reduced pressure to prepare strategies of resistance of survival, such as burying caches of weapons in layers of obscurity underground.

Similarly, where is the supposed Palestinian technocratic government going to come from? There is nobody with any support on the street, and anyone shipped in by Washington and Jerusalem will immediately be seen as a traitor. Not a good place to start.

In the final analysis, the best way to see this development is as another Trumpian fantasy, to join his failed Gaza Riviera plan in the dustbin of history. In recent months, the president has wantonly squandered his credibility with unhinged rhetoric towards Iran. When you vow apocalyptic consequences without delivering them and announce historic peace agreements that collapse at the first breath of air, how are your enemies supposed to take you seriously? Answer: they don’t. Having seen the Iranians taking Trump for a fool, Hamas are doing the same.
NYPost Editorial: A few questions about the new hopeful Gaza peace plan
Fine, Hamas has said it’s agreed to lay down its arms as per that 15-point plan from President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace, but color us skeptical.

We absolutely hope it proves to be a genuine step toward bringing permanent peace to Gaza, but before we deem it a “historic agreement” as the prez announced, we need some questions answered.

For starters, who decides that Israel and Hamas and its allied terror groups have ceased “all military operations”?

We guarantee that some terrorists will keep shooting at Israel forces (and even more so, at any Gazans who defy them).

It seems a new International Verification Committee needs creating, but who’ll be on it, where will the staff come from, how long will it take to set up — and what happens when one side insists the IVC is wrong about the other side complying?

One enforcement arm is supposed to be the International Stabilization Force, but it’s meant to have a mere 5,000 troops — and so far only seems to actually have 200 or so even pledged by a few countries.

Also: What is the “Palestinian law” the plan mentions repeatedly?

There’s never been an actual Palestinian state to have any laws; are we talking about statutes created by the Palestinian Authority? By the rump government Hamas has run in Gaza? Something else?

And what judges are to interpret this “law”?

More generally, what parts of the Hamas-controlled government will transfer over to the new one under the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, and again who does the vetting of these “civil servants” selected by various gangs of terrorists?

Above all, how can any “existing police structures” possibly be trusted?
The Israel-Lebanon agreement will be won or lost in the first 150 meters
Before anyone could determine whether the Lebanese Armed Forces could dismantle Hezbollah’s infrastructure, seize its weapons and establish state sovereignty in Southern Lebanon, the new pilot program designed to provide the Lebanese army with an opportunity to do so encountered its first test.

It did not involve missiles, tunnels or units of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force. It involved approximately 150 meters.

On July 21, the Lebanese army began deploying in the village of Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh after the Israeli military withdrew as part of the first stage of a U.S.-brokered framework. Lebanese teams began clearing unexploded ordnance. A neighboring village, Zawtar al-Sharqiyeh, remained inside the Israeli-held buffer zone.

The Israel Defense Forces said Lebanese soldiers and an engineering vehicle crossed barriers and advanced about 150 meters into the security zone near Zawtar al-Sharqiyeh, outside the agreed pilot area and without coordination. Israeli troops fired warning shots, and the Lebanese force withdrew without casualties.

The Lebanese army said its soldiers remained inside Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh and were operating through the prescribed coordination mechanism when Israeli troops opened fire nearby. It described the shooting as an act of aggression that endangered its soldiers and could obstruct the pilot program.

Perhaps this was a navigation error. Perhaps the maps were unclear. Perhaps the vehicle crossed the agreed line unintentionally. Perhaps the Lebanese account is correct. The facts should be investigated immediately through the established mechanism.

But this is not an argument about a 150-meter tactical dispute.

The strategic question is how Israel, Lebanon and the United States will resolve the first disputed incident. Will it be documented, investigated and corrected, or dismissed as a local misunderstanding too small to justify endangering a major diplomatic initiative?

Israel knows this trap well. Quite often, violations of agreements become precedents.


'Still with me': Evyatar David recalls captivity, being forced to dig his grave in first interview
The “thin, young man” in captivity digging his grave is still a part of who he is, former hostage Evyatar David shared in an interview with Channel 12’s Uvda published on Thursday.

David, accompanied by fellow former hostage and childhood best friend Guy Gilboa-Dalal, recalled the moments of his kidnapping by Hamas on October 7 and his time in captivity.

David and Gilboa-Dalal were abducted from the Nova music festival on October 7, 2023. He was held hostage by Hamas until October 13, 2025.

Two friends of theirs, Captain Ron Tzarfati and Idan Haramaty, were murdered at the festival by Hamas.

The four of them had arrived at Nova relatively early, David shared, and “until 6:29 a.m., it was an incredible party. Then intense gunfire began right next to us, and my legs simply took over and started running.”

“It was as though I had no control,” he said, recalling seeing Tzarfati, Haramaty, and Gilboa-Dalal and wondering why they weren’t running.

“The gunfire started getting closer,” David went on. “The only thing you can hear is your own breathing. Some guy inside the bushes screamed a curse at the top of his lungs, and then you hear a burst of gunfire, followed by silence.”


Gaza terrorist who kidnapped Noa Argamani, Avinatan Or on Oct. 7 killed in strike — IDF
A top commander in a Gazan terror group, who took part in abducting Avinatan Or and Noa Argamani, and who directed the abduction of Sudthisak Rinthalak during the Hamas-led October 7, 2023, onslaught, was killed in an Israeli strike in the Gaza Strip this week, the Israel Defense Forces announced on Friday.

The military said the strike on Tuesday in southern Gaza killed Ahmed Hussein Mohammed Kafina, commander of the central Gaza area for the Mujahideen Brigades, a relatively small Hamas-allied terror group in the Strip.

“Kafina planned and directed the group’s terrorists’ raid into the territory of the State of Israel during the October 7 massacre, and took part in the abduction of Avinatan Or and Noa Argamani, and in directing the abduction of Sudthisak Rinthalak,” the military said.

Rinthalak was killed in the onslaught, and his body was taken to Gaza and later returned by Hamas. Argamani was rescued by the IDF in 2024 and Or was released from Gaza last year.

Video of the abduction from the Nova music festival of Argamani and Or, who were a couple, became one of the most widely circulated pieces of footage from the massacre.

As it has said regarding other terror commanders killed in recent strikes, amid a ceasefire in the Strip, the IDF said that Kafina had recently planned attacks on troops and Israeli civilians. Relatives and friends of Thai national Sudthisak Rinthalak mourn next to his coffin during a farewell ceremony at Ben Gurion Airport, December 9, 2025. (Chaim Goldberg/Flash90)

“The terrorist posed an immediate threat to the troops and was eliminated in a precise aerial strike,” the military said. A Palestinian man rides his bicycle by the rubble of buildings that were destroyed during the Israel-Hamas war, in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, July 31, 2026. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Another Hamas commander who invaded Israel on October 7 and held Israeli hostages Romi Gonen and Cpl. Noa Marciano in captivity in the Gaza Strip was killed in an airstrike on Thursday, the military and Shin Bet also announced.

The Thursday strike in Gaza City killed Abd al-Rahim Abd al-Hay Youssef Kardi, a deputy commander of a Hamas cell, who also served as a doctor at Shifa Hospital, according to the military.

“Kardi infiltrated Israeli territory during the October 7 massacre,” the military said.

The IDF said that at the start of the war, Kardi was involved in holding Gonen hostage in Gaza City, including at Shifa Hospital, and he was also involved in holding the body of Marciano, a surveillance soldier, after she had been murdered in captivity until her remains were recovered by the army.

The military justified the strike amid the ceasefire by saying that Kardi had been recently planning attacks on troops and Israeli civilians.

“The terrorist posed a threat to the troops and was eliminated in an aerial strike,” the army said.


Trump says Rubio working to bring ICC ‘to heel’ to ‘defend Bibi and others’
Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday touted the Trump administration’s efforts to bring the International Criminal Court to its knees, which the US president linked to its prosecution of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“The International Criminal Court has made themselves illegitimate because they claim that even if you’re not a member of that court, we can come after you,” Rubio said during a cabinet meeting held at the Camp David presidential retreat.

“We tried to get them to reform and listen to us, they wouldn’t do it. They’re very arrogant. So we’ve now begun an effort to really try to bring them to heel,” he added.

US President Donald Trump chimed in to clarify that Rubio was not advancing the initiative to defend him, as the ICC is not currently seeking to prosecute the US president.

“He’s trying to defend Bibi and various other people,” Trump added, referring to the Israeli premier.

Rubio also celebrated the administration’s brokering of agreements between Israel and Lebanon as well as the disarmament deal between the Board of Peace and Hamas — “something a lot of people thought would never happen. It needs to happen, but the fact that people agree to it is a real achievement.

The secretary of state’s remarks Friday came several weeks after he unveiled the administration’s effort to “dismantle” the ICC, which Trump and other senior US officials have long said should not have the authority to investigate and prosecute Americans, particularly members of the US military.


International Court of Justice to hear Germany’s challenge to Nicaragua’s genocide complicity claims
The International Court of Justice announced on Friday that it will hold hearings from Sept. 7-10 on Germany’s preliminary objections to Nicaragua’s claims that Berlin is “facilitating the commission of genocide and, in any case, has failed in its obligation to do everything possible to prevent the commission of genocide” in Gaza.

The hearings will address whether the court has jurisdiction and whether Nicaragua’s claims are admissible, rather than the merits of the case.

Nicaragua filed the case in March 2024, alleging that Germany violated its obligations under the Genocide Convention by providing political, financial and military support to Israel and by suspending funding for the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. Several donor countries halted or reduced contributions to the agency after allegations that some employees participated in the Hamas-led terrorist attacks in Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, though many later resumed funding.

In April 2024, the ICJ rejected Nicaragua’s request for provisional measures that would have required Germany to halt military exports to Israel and restore UNRWA funding. Germany argued that only a small portion of its military export licenses to Israel involved weapons, and that it continued providing humanitarian assistance to Gaza through other U.N. agencies and aid organizations.

The case has since proceeded through written pleadings. In October 2025, Germany filed preliminary objections challenging the ICJ’s jurisdiction and the admissibility of several of Nicaragua’s claims, automatically suspending proceedings on the merits pending resolution of those objections. The September hearings will focus exclusively on those procedural issues.

Nicaragua’s case stems from the separate ICJ proceedings initiated by South Africa, which accuses Israel of violating the Genocide Convention during its military campaign against Hamas in Gaza.

That case remains in its written phase. Earlier this year, the ICJ granted South Africa until November 2027 to file its reply, after Israel sought equal time to submit a rejoinder, extending the timetable for the proceedings.

Legal analysts have argued that Managua’s claims against Germany depend in significant part on the outcome of the South Africa case because they allege Germany aided Israel’s purported violations of the Genocide Convention.
Jewish candidate for top UN post wins initial Security Council straw poll
U.N. secretary-general hopeful Rebeca Grynspan, who is Jewish and the daughter of Holocaust refugees and who has ties to Israel, came out on top in a non-binding U.N. Security Council member straw poll on Thursday.

An economist, she is the former vice president of Costa Rica and is a longtime U.N. executive and current secretary-general of the U.N. Trade and Development agency.

Grynspan received 10 “encourage” votes from the council’s 15 members, and one “discourage” and four “no opinion” votes.

The categories are meant to show the council’s level of support, or lack thereof, for each candidate, and they give the council an idea of who can draw a consensus and who might face a veto.

The ballots are kept secret, and results are disclosed only to the U.N. General Assembly president and to the countries that nominated the candidates.

Multiple diplomats confirmed the results to JNS on the condition of anonymity.

Grynspan, whose parents fled Poland during the Holocaust, is now considered a very early frontrunner for the position, ahead of former Guyanese foreign minister Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, who racked up nine “encourage” votes. Rafael Grossi, an Argentinian and head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, got seven approving votes.

‘Confront the institutional antisemitism’
Michelle Bachelet of Chile, who created a blacklist of companies doing business in Israel-controlled territory in her role at the United Nations, received six “encourage” and five “discourage” votes.

Seven candidates are running to replace António Guterres, of Portugal, whose relationship with Israel has flatlined during his second five-year term, which concludes on Dec. 31.
Danon accuses Spain of hypocrisy after it deploys military to Spanish enclave of Ceuta
Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations Danny Danon accused Spain of hypocrisy on Friday after Madrid declared a state of emergency and deployed military forces to its North African enclave of Ceuta in response to a mass influx of migrants from neighboring Morocco.

In a post on X, Danon said Spain, which “never misses an opportunity to lecture Israel,” was now confronting the consequences of its own immigration policies.

“Maybe before it continues lecturing us, it’s time it explained to the world why it still maintains colonial enclaves in Africa,” he wrote, referring to the Spanish territories of Ceuta and Melilla on Morocco’s Mediterranean coast.

Spain dispatched military units to Ceuta on Thursday after thousands of migrants crossed into the enclave by sea and land from Morocco, according to Spanish state broadcaster TVE. Video footage showed migrants swimming around border barriers or using inner tubes to reach the city, while others forced their way through a land crossing.

According to Spain’s Interior Ministry, an estimated 49,000 migrants crossed into Ceuta in less than 24 hours, one of the largest single-day irregular border crossings recorded in Europe.

The surge turned deadly, with nine bodies recovered in Ceuta on Thursday, adding to at least 60 migrants reported to have died attempting the crossing in recent months.


Andrew Fox: Ceuta’s phantom invasion
These episodes are best described as coercive migration engineering: Morocco manipulated population movement to punish Spain. The quarrel concerned Western Sahara and the balance of power between Madrid and Rabat.

The present crisis has the same shape. Sánchez visited Algeria, Morocco’s principal rival, on 20 July, ahead of a Spanish parliamentary committee advancing citizenship legislation for Sahrawis and their descendants. That timing proves nothing by itself, but it offers a more plausible context than a continent-wide operation intended to put 60,000 people on the streets of Calais.

A 2024 episode showed how decisive Moroccan enforcement can be. Social media calls drew around 3,000 people to Ceuta, but Rabat deployed heavily, halted the crossings, and arrested 152 alleged instigators. Digital mobilisation can assemble the crowd, but Moroccan policing largely determines whether it becomes a Spanish border crisis.

Ceuta gives Morocco an unusual pressure valve. Rabat controls the roads, towns and police deployments outside a small Spanish enclave. When relations deteriorate, Spain discovers how dependent its border is on the country that contests its sovereignty. Morocco can then restore control and help arrange returns.

That pattern is peculiar to Ceuta and, to a lesser extent, Melilla. It bears little resemblance to 2015, the Balkan route, Mediterranean journeys from Libya to Italy, or small boats across the English Channel. Most were Moroccans crossing directly into a tiny enclave with restricted onward travel. Tens of thousands returned across the same frontier within hours.

Spain’s own figures make the contrast even starker. Before this breach, irregular arrivals across Spain were down almost 25 per cent year on year, while entries into Ceuta had risen sharply. The national trend was falling as this one enclave spiked. That is evidence of a local rupture rather than a fresh continental tide.

Spain’s failure remains stark. A border overwhelmed by a rumour, with weak staffing and shifting Moroccan behaviour, is a serious national security vulnerability. Sánchez should explain why the frontier was so thinly defended and why Spain remains exposed to pressure from Rabat. Those charges require no imaginary march on Berlin.

The terminally online right chose the imaginary march anyway. Every clip must now prove civilisational collapse, while corrections are treated as betrayal. Politicians who knew Ceuta’s geography joined in. Meloni imposed targeted checks on arrivals from Spain, even though those she claimed to fear had no unchecked route from Ceuta and were already returning to Morocco in their tens of thousands.

Russian propagandists will amplify the spectacle because frightened, divided European societies serve Moscow. They need not fabricate the narrative. Western populists and engagement farmers distribute it for free, complete with recycled footage and maps apparently drawn from memory.

The border hawks have copied the activists they despise. They accuse the other side of refusing to discuss migration honestly, then bury the geography and return figures that undermine their own story. Morocco’s coercion, Spain’s negligence and 57 deaths are damning enough. They prefer the lie that Europe has already fallen.

Most of the crowd has now returned to Morocco. The hysteria is still travelling north.
The Brink: The truth behind the Ceuta migrant invasion...
In this solo episode of The Brink, Andrew Fox examines the extraordinary events unfolding in Ceuta, where tens of thousands of migrants crossed into Spanish territory in just 24 hours. But was this really an invasion of Europe, or something far more calculated?

Andrew breaks down the competing explanations behind the crisis, from social media-driven mobilisation and organised criminal smuggling networks to the possibility of state-backed coercion. He explores Morocco's long history of using migration as political leverage, the strategic importance of Western Sahara, and why the timing of the crisis has raised serious questions about Rabat's intentions.

The episode also examines Russia's growing influence across North Africa and the Sahel, including its links to Libya, the Wagner Group, human trafficking networks, and the weaponisation of migration as a geopolitical tool. Andrew explains what the evidence does and does not show, separating established facts from speculation while asking whether Moscow stands to benefit from Europe's latest border crisis.

Finally, Andrew explores what happens next. How does Spain process tens of thousands of arrivals? Can they freely move across Europe? And why might the political impact of the images prove even more significant than the number of people who crossed the border?




Israel, US weighing wave of strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure
The United States and Israel are planning to initiate a harsh bombing campaign on energy infrastructure in Iran, according to a Friday CBS News report citing multiple sources.

According to the report, the wave of strikes could be among the harshest to date and may begin over the weekend, targeting power plants and refineries.

Multiple US sources told CBS that Israel has been notified of the potential strikes and has been coordinating with the American military, but noted that US President Donald Trump has not given final approval for the plan.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump did authorize the plan, with US officials saying that immediate progress on the diplomatic front could cause Trump to cancel the potential strikes.

One Israeli official denied the claims, telling CBS that “Israel is unaware of a decision to restart full military operations, nor has it been requested of Israel to join any military actions against Iran."

The plan was reportedly discussed on Friday during a cabinet meeting held at Camp David, sources briefed later stated.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told CBS that Trump, during the cabinet meeting, asserted that “the United States will win, and Iran will not have a nuclear weapon under his watch.”

Trump additionally told reporters at the Camp David retreat that the US will be hitting Iran very hard.

"We'll be hitting them very hard,” Trump said. “At some point, they're going to say, 'We just can't take it anymore.'"
Iran likely behind water-system attacks in Minnesota, but ‘surprising’ it hasn’t taken credit, expert says
Iranian hackers are likely behind a widening cyberattack campaign against U.S. water systems that has reached at least seven states, including more than 30 systems in Minnesota alone, and likely extends further, a cybersecurity expert told JNS on Friday.

“The working assumption is that it is Iranian threat actors,” Annie Fixler, director of the cyber and technology innovation center at Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told JNS. “The kind of behavior matches what we’ve seen out of Iran. The kind of targets and the systems that we’re talking about match.”

Fixler cautioned that no actor has publicly claimed responsibility.

“What we don’t have is anyone claiming responsibility, which is a little surprising,” she said. “Iranian hackers tend to claim responsibility for stuff because of that ‘perception-hacking’ component, because they want to let everyone know they did it and that they’re really scary and big and bad.”

Minnesota officials said on Tuesday that more than 30 community water systems in the state were targeted in coordinated attacks on July 26 and 27.

The FBI said on Thursday that water utilities in at least seven states reported similar cyber incidents. The other affected states have not yet been identified publicly.

Fixler told JNS that she doubts that seven will be the final number.

“It’s certainly an evolving situation,” she said. “If it’s seven, there’s no reason to think it stops there. The FBI is saying ‘at least seven.’ I’m sure it’s larger than that.”

U.S. President Donald Trump denied on Friday that Iran was responsible for the Minnesota attacks. Instead, he blamed the state’s “corrupt governor.”

“We heard in Minnesota there was a cyberattack, and they blame it on Iran. I don’t think so,” he stated. “I think I blame it on Minnesota, because they’re grossly incompetent.”

“There was a cyberattack of 30 water plants, and I would blame it on Minnesota and the governor, the corrupt governor of Minnesota,” the president said, during a cabinet meeting at Camp David.

“They like to say, ‘Oh, it was Iran,’” Trump said. “Iran should be so lucky. Iran’s got bigger problems than worrying about Minnesota.”
Illicit Iranian gambling network helped pull off a $4 billion sanctions dodge
One of the world’s largest illegal gambling networks sends millions of dollars worth of crypto through an office in Dubai, part of a $4 billion Iranian operation to evade sanctions.

The office, above a budget hotel in an unfashionable neighborhood, is the listed address of Shelbit, an unlicensed crypto exchange run by an expatriate Iranian, according to data shared by two crypto investigative firms and an independent analyst, and reviewed by Reuters.

Among Shelbit’s main customers is a Farsi-language gambling network of more than 2,000 websites, fronted by two flashy Iranian influencers with high-level government connections – one operating from an expensive villa in Madrid and the other, until recently, from a luxury hotel in Hong Kong.

The two men and the Iranian running Shelbit were convicted as partners in crime in an illegal gambling case in Iran in 2023.

Gambling is outlawed in the Islamic Republic, punishable by lashing and prison. Yet, the gambling network identified by Reuters has access to Iran’s online payments system, which is closely overseen by the country’s central bank.

Shelbit is the hub of the Iranian money-moving operation, through which the gambling network, the central bank and other sanctioned Iranian entities have access to global crypto markets.

The data on the Shelbit money flows, including the total of at least $4 billion that the exchange has processed since May 2024, were analyzed by the two crypto investigative firms and Rich Sanders, an independent blockchain researcher and investigator focused on Iran. The two companies requested anonymity to discuss the sensitive data, which was reviewed by Reuters. Tens of millions of dollars of the gambling network’s crypto can be traced through blockchain records to Shelbit.

Shelbit has moved hundreds of millions in currency to some of the most prominent players in crypto, including the world’s biggest exchange, Binance.
Saudis said to gear up for ground invasion against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen
Saudi Arabia is gearing up for a major offensive against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, by sea and possibly including a ground operation, The Guardian reported Thursday.

According to the report, which cited Yemeni sources, Saudi forces have been seen withdrawing from the east of Yemen, in what could indicate preparation for a ground attack.

The report came after the Saudi defense ministry issued a joint statement with 13 other countries announcing a maritime defense alliance to secure navigation around the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The alliance includes Bahrain, Bangladesh, Djibouti, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Nigeria, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Turkey and Yemen. The Saudis have also asked the US, as well as several European countries, to join the alliance.

Saudi Arabia and the Houthis traded fire earlier this month for the first time in years, threatening a 2022 truce that has held despite expiring.

On July 20, the Houthis declared a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, opening a new front against the US and its allies in the Iran war, which has already constrained global shipping due to Iranian attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Iran-backed group has claimed attacks targeting Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and oil infrastructure in the kingdom.

Sailing through Bab el-Mandeb to Asia takes on average 16 days, versus 50 days if cargoes are rerouted through the northern Red Sea, through the Suez Canal and then via southern Africa.


Hamas to have ‘no role’ in governing under Gaza roadmap
Under a Gaza implementation roadmap being discussed in Cairo by international mediators, Hamas would be fully disarmed and permanently barred from governing the coastal enclave, a diplomatic source familiar with the negotiations told JNS.

“The implementation roadmap provides for the decommissioning of all weapons, heavy and light, with no exceptions, alongside the elimination of tunnels, weapons depots and production facilities,” the source said.

Civilian and security authority would transfer to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, a transitional technocratic body established in January 2026 under a framework backed by the U.N. Security Council.

“At the end of the process, Hamas will have no role in governing Gaza, either openly or behind the scenes,” the source said, adding that talks with the mediators are continuing to advance.

Under the proposal, each phase would be independently verified before the next obligation takes effect, creating a conditions-based process for disarmament, governance and reconstruction.
Two-week ceasefire intended to allow Hamas disarmament, launch peace deal, sources tell 'Post'
The IDF will not withdraw from the current Yellow Line in the Gaza Strip without the full disarmament of Hamas, a diplomatic source reiterated to The Jerusalem Post on Friday.

This follows the announcement of a Board of Peace framework for the implementation of US President Donald Trump's peace plan, which several sources familiar with the details told the Post includes all Hamas weaponry being placed in storage and dismantled.

The storage facilities will be controlled by NCAG police officers, each of whom will undergo Shin Bet security vetting, while the multinational force will provide oversight.

Gaza residents may still obtain a license for a handgun under Palestinian law.

Once the process begins, Israel will halt its fire, the sources told the Post. There is currently a two-week ceasefire to finalize the details of the process. However, if Hamas does not begin the process, this will be considered a violation of the ceasefire and will bring it to an end.

Israel's withdrawal from the Yellow Line will take place only once the process is complete and full demilitarization has been achieved, the sources said.
Full text: The Board of Peace roadmap for the implementation of Trump's Gaza peace plan

How the Gaza disarmament deal proves everyone right — but could spell trouble for Netanyahu
When US President Donald Trump published his triumphant Truth Social post on Thursday announcing the new agreement to disarm Hamas, remove Israeli forces from Gaza and put the Strip under the supervision of a Palestinian police force, technocrats and international peacekeepers, he ended, characteristically, on an all-caps note of vindication:

The celebration may prove premature.

Indeed, the US and its partners seem to have quietly achieved a deal that, if implemented, promises to simultaneously remove (or at least defang) the threat to Israel on its southern border, return the territory to some form of Palestinian control, and allow it to begin rebuilding.

But that’s a huge if. Israel has already objected to the agreement’s terms, Hamas has yet to lay down a single weapon, and the whole enterprise relies on parties that have opposing interests and don’t trust each other working in concert like a Swiss watch. No one will be surprised if this deal falls apart.

Still, even at this stage, this agreement represents something rare: A chance for a variety of ideological stakeholders to all claim victory.

For the entirety of the Gaza war, a pair of debates raged in tandem, with some areas of overlap.

The first debate was between Israel and its global critics. Israel argued it was fighting a war of necessity against an eliminationist terror group that had massacred Israelis and promised to do so again. Many of Israel’s critics charged that it was engaged in war crimes, ethnic cleansing, even genocide — all seeking to push Palestinians off their rightful land.

The second debate occurred within Israel, between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his opponents. Netanyahu argued that military pressure was key to defeating Hamas, and that halting the fighting before a “total victory” would pass up a crucial opportunity to safeguard Israel’s security. His opponents argued that after two years of grueling fighting, Hamas remained intact, and that he was the one passing up opportunities by refusing a deal that would have brought the hostages home earlier and saved lives.

Both sides, in both debates, can reasonably claim that this deal proves them right. Unfortunately for everyone, the agreement also proves them all wrong.

And it could put the prime minister in an impossible position ahead of Israel’s election — wanting to please both a US president who does not brook insubordination, and voters in his own base who view ceding territory as anathema.

How the deal could prove Israel right — and its critics wrong
Israeli officials have reservations about the deal, which asks its troops to pull back from territory while a terror group sworn to its destruction gradually disarms. But internationally, it’s easy to make the case that this deal supports Israel’s argument. Israel has long said that the reason it was fighting the war wasn’t wanton bloodshed, but because the threat of Hamas must be removed from Gaza following the October 7, 2023, onslaught.

Now, that demand is endorsed not just by the US but by the likes of Egypt, Turkey and Qatar. The sine qua non of this deal is that Hamas lay down its weapons, a recognition that — just as Israel has said all along — the terror group’s continued presence in Gaza was unacceptable.

Likewise, that puts Israel’s harshest critics in an uncomfortable position. If it’s implemented, everyone who has claimed Israel was out to commit genocide and resettle Gaza will be left watching as Israel succeeds in ridding itself of Hamas — and then withdraws its troops back across the border.


Hamas official says group will reject Board of Peace disarmament deal if Israel does not approve
If Israel does not approve and endorse the Board of Peace's disarmament deal with Hamas, the terror group will refuse to implement it, a Hamas official told Reuters on Friday.

Ghazi Hamad, a Hamas official involved in the negotiations, said the agreement was a "comprehensive framework" that went beyond the issue of disarmament and would depend on Israel implementing the first phase of an agreement hammered out last year in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh.

Under that agreement, he said Israel was obliged to end its attacks in Gaza and withdraw its forces to where they stood in October, as well as increase the flow of goods and aid coming into the enclave.

Only then would Hamas agree to hand over its weapons to the new National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), the technocratic body set up to run the enclave.

"We insisted to the mediators that Israel must abide by the agreement," he said.

Hamas terrorists look on as they escort members of the Red Cross towards an area within the so-called ''yellow line'' to which Israeli troops withdrew


IDF destroys Hamas tunnel used to hold Oct. 7 hostages in Gaza
Israeli troops operating in the southern Gaza Strip have dismantled more than 10 Hamas underground tunnel routes, including one used to hold hostages abducted during the Oct. 7, 2023, terrorist attacks, the Israel Defense Forces said on Friday.

The operation was carried out by troops from the 188th Armored Brigade, operating under the Gaza Division alongside combat engineers from the elite Yahalom unit. According to the military, the forces also uncovered a large cache of weapons, including rocket launchers, rockets, grenades, explosive devices and Kalashnikov assault rifles.

The IDF said the brigade has spent the past eight months conducting defensive operations east of the Yellow Line in southern Gaza, working to locate and destroy Hamas terrorist infrastructure while securing the area under the current ceasefire framework.

As part of the operation, the troops established new defensive routes and military positions to strengthen Israel’s security posture along the sector and improve protection for forces operating in the area.

Separately, the IDF and Israeli Security Agency (Shin Bet) said they struck and destroyed four Hamas weapons storage facilities overnight Wednesday in several areas across the Gaza Strip.

According to the military, the sites contained Kalashnikov rifles, explosive devices, ammunition and other military equipment intended for use in attacks on Israeli troops operating near the Yellow Line and on Israeli civilians.

The military accused Hamas of continuing to violate the ceasefire by attempting to rebuild its military capabilities despite ongoing efforts to implement the agreement.

“IDF troops under the Southern Command remain deployed in the area in accordance with the ceasefire framework and will continue operating to remove any immediate threat,” the army said.


Has Trump's Foreign Policy Already Peaked? — with Ian Bremmer
What is next for America’s foreign policy, and what does it mean for Israel?

President Trump has reshaped America's relationships with allies and adversaries alike, favoring leverage, pressure, and dealmaking over traditional alliances. But does coercion create lasting influence, or does it push allies to look elsewhere? Dan is joined by Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, to debate whether Trump's foreign policy has reached its ceiling, what comes next for America's global alliances, and why Israel may be the ultimate test case.

In this episode:
Has Trump's foreign policy peaked?
Where Trump's foreign policy succeeded and failed
Can America still count on its allies?
Has Trump lost leverage over Russia?
Will the U.S. finish the job on Iran?
Is Israel the exception to America's new foreign policy?
Which parts of Trump's foreign policy will last?


Victor Davis Hanson: Trump must set up an Iranian government-in-exile
Welcome to The Times of Israel's Lazar Focus. Each Friday, join host diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman for a deep dive into what's behind the news that spins the globe.

This week, we want to take a broad look at the direction of US foreign policy.

How does domestic politics affect America's ability to wage war? Is a moderate bump in gas prices enough to keep US President Donald Trump from achieving his goals against Iran? What changes after the midterms?

We also want to examine the nose-dive in support for Israel among Democrats, and the rise in antisemitism on the right wing of the Republican Party.

Prof. Victor Davis Hanson is one of the most prolific and well-known American historians. Trained as a classicist, he has written extensively on ancient and modern warfare. He also has unique insights into the currents driving US politics.

Hanson said that midterm elections often warp foreign policy. The incumbent party almost always loses, and with the Republicans holding a thin lead in the House of Representatives, they are in serious danger of losing the House. If that happens, said Hanson, Trump will face two years of impeachment hearings.

In addition, said Hanson, Americans are willing to support military action, but run out of patience quickly. "They don't mind the violence," he said. "They don't mind, to be frank, how many people you kill. They don't want to lose any Americans, but they want it short, and out of the Middle East especially."

Hanson pointed out that Democratic Socialists have only won a few elections in deep blue states thus far, and they are not the inevitable future of the Democratic Party. Both parties have had fringe outliers that damage their chances, only to have course corrections in subsequent cycles.

What is unique about the Democratic Socialists phenomenon, he says, is that it is combined with an Islamist element: "What unites them is they hate Western civilization. They hate capitalism, even though they do quite well by it. They hate Israel. And I'll be candid. I think they hate Jews as well."

He argued that on the right, the Republican Party and broader conservative movement are pushing back on their antisemitic fringe.

Vance, said Hanson, is "brilliant." He sees that Marco Rubio's star is rising and is trying to find a way to position himself as the party's frontrunner. Vance's way to do so, said Hanson, is to appeal to the disaffected working-class whites he grew up around.

On Iran, Hanson stressed that the people leading the regime are fanatics. What the US should do is create a transitional government in exile in a nearby Arab country and send frozen regime funds to that body.

"Sow the seeds of dissension and let it work like that," Hanson urged. "But I don't think we need to talk to them anymore. It's completely futile."

Overall, he said Israel is in a strong position diplomatically and militarily, while Iran is weaker than many realize. Russia and China are also slipping economically and demographically, while the US is squeezing them out of places like South America.

Hanson argued that prioritizing the Palestinian cause is a "Western elite fetish in Europe and the United States."

Finally, with one of the world's leading classics scholars on the show, how could we not discuss Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey? Hanson called it "a spectacularly produced film, special effects, and he encouraged people to take an interest in Homer. But "it's really not Homer's Odyssey. I would call it a diverse, equitable and inclusive Odyssey, a DEI Odyssey."





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This blog may be a labor of love for me, but it takes a lot of effort, time and money. For 20 years and 40,000 articles I have been providing accurate, original news that would have remained unnoticed. I've written hundreds of scoops and sometimes my reporting ends up making a real difference. I appreciate any donations you can give to keep this blog going.

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