Monday, July 04, 2022

07/04 Links Pt1: The 'Two-State Solution' to Destroy Israel; US says Abu Akleh bullet test inconclusive, IDF likely shot her by mistake; Israeli Journalist Visits Saudi Arabia, Sees Profound Change

From Ian:

Khaled Abu Toameh: The 'Two-State Solution' to Destroy Israel
The vast majority of the Palestinians, however, make it abundantly clear that they do not believe in the "two-state solution" and would rather see Hamas, the Iranian-backed terror group whose charter calls for the elimination of Israel, replace the Palestinian Authority headed by Mahmoud Abbas.

According to the results of the poll, opposition to the concept of the "two-state solution" stands at 69%. Another 75% of respondents also expressed opposition to the idea of a one-state solution, where Israelis and Palestinians would live together and enjoy equal rights. – Poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, June 28, 2022

Most Palestinians said [in the poll] that Hamas is the most deserving to represent and lead the Palestinian people.

Hamas's rising popularity among the Palestinians means that the Palestinian state the Biden administration is seeking to establish next to Israel would soon be ruled by an Islamist group whose covenant states that "Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam will obliterate it, just as Islam obliterated others before it."

Hamas leaders have never been anything but clear and consistent about their intention to eliminate Israel and kill Jews.

Hamas and its supporters do not believe in Biden's "two-state solution or any peace process with Israel. The only solution they want is one that would see Israel and the Jews vanish from this world. Sadly, a majority of the Palestinians (as evidenced by the latest poll) share the ideology of Hamas and want to see even more Jews killed.

The Biden administration needs to understand that, under the current circumstances, advancing the idea of a "two-state solution" is tantamount to advocating bloodshed and violence in the Middle East.

The administration also needs to understand that Abbas, the Palestinian leader it is endeavoring to engage and relying on to make peace, utterly lacks the backing of a majority of his people for any peace plan with Israel.


Marshall Plan could solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict - WJC president
A deal the Palestinians can't turn down
According to Lauder, the Marshall Plan "formed the basis for rebuilding a shattered Europe" after WWII, calling it the most successful foreign policy initiative in history.

He argues that a plan offering Palestinians "a future of wealth, success and self-reliance" is a deal Palestinian leaders cannot turn down.

The Palestinian plan "should focus on the creation of small businesses, home building, hotels, restaurants and job creation," the WJC president suggested. That would allow for a "positive future" for the next generation of Palestinians.

"A fixed sum of money could be given to young entrepreneurs to create new businesses, which would be closely monitored," Lauder explained. "If they prove to be viable but need a financial boost after a year, another small infusion could be given."

"In other words, provide Palestinians with all the things that made Israel and other countries financially viable, which would help create a new and successful Palestine."

Per-capita wealth would double annually within three to five years, Lauder claimed.

He called on the US, EU, Saudi Arabia, Israel and other Middle East countries to contribute to funding the suggested plan.

However, Lauder did warn that the new plan "would have to be closely monitored by an organization that is trusted by all sides." In the past, there has not been adequate responsibility in terms of the aid money given to Palestinians, He wrote.

What's planned for Biden in the Middle East?
The Palestinian leadership will present five demands to US President Joe Biden during his upcoming visit to the region, a Palestinian official told The Jerusalem Post.

The official also called on Prime Minister Yair Lapid to immediately meet with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to revive the stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations.

On Thursday, Biden said further integrating Israel into the Middle East is a central objective of his visit.


Headlines with the Haddads - Pride, UN Commission of Inquiry, and Israeli Elections
Emily Schrader and Yoseph Haddad covering Israel's record breaking TLV Pride parade, the UN's new "Commission of Inquiry" and Israel heads to its fifth election in 2 years.


Israeli Journalist Visits Saudi Arabia, Sees Profound Change
On Sunday night, while in a restaurant in Riyadh, a local young man sitting next to me asked me from where I was. "Israel," I replied. He laughed, and moved on. Shortly before leaving, he looked at me again and asked, "Israel, really?" I said "yes," to which he replied, "Wow, welcome. We welcome everyone here happily, from all religions."

Saudi Arabia was a pleasant surprise. Friendly. Happy. Not even mentioning Israel brought anyone down. I tested this on several cab drivers and market vendors. Some smiled and shook their head in disbelief or worry, others were curious and struck up a conversation. I wondered if any of them had ever met an Israeli before, or heard Hebrew, but no one made us feel unwelcome in the kingdom, home to the holiest sites of Islam, not even for a moment.

US President Joe Biden's visit to Israel and Saudi Arabia will not lead to formal ties between the two nations. Biden will travel to Saudi Arabia next Friday, after having visited Israel. In the resort city of Jeddah, he will meet with all the leaders of the Gulf states and several other prominent Arab leaders, but more importantly, he will meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, effectively ending the boycott he had imposed on him after the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.

Biden wants Riyadh to increase the amount of oil it produces so that it could lower its prices, but will also try to promote normalization with Israel. As such, he will try to have Israeli representatives accompany him on his visit to the kingdom, although the matter is not yet final.

Everyone involved in the matter says that Israeli-Saudi ties will warm slowly, step by step, over an extended period of time. But my visit to Riyadh shows the profound change Saudi Arabia is experiencing at this time.
Israel taking part in RIMPAC 2022, world's largest maritime exercise
Israel has sent troops to take part in the biennial Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) multinational naval exercise.

RIMPAC is led by the US Third Fleet off the coast of Hawaii and Southern California in August. It has been held every two years since the early 1970s and is considered the world’s largest maritime exercise.

The exercise, which kicked off last week and is scheduled to go until August 4 in and near the Hawaiian Islands and Southern California, will see a total of 38 ships including three unmanned surface vessels, four submarines, nine national land forces and more than 170 aircraft including the MQ-9 Reaper unmanned aerial vehicle.

This year’s exercise includes approximately 25,000 personnel from these 26 nations: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Denmark, Ecuador, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Peru, South Korea, the Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Tonga, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Drill designed to foster and sustain multinational cooperation
With the theme of RIMPAC 2022 being “Capable Adaptive Partners,” the drill was designed to foster and sustain multinational cooperation and trust, as well as enhance the interoperability of troops who ensure the safety and security of sea lanes and oceans.

“Participating nations and forces will exercise a wide range of capabilities and demonstrate the inherent flexibility of maritime forces,” the US Navy’s Third Fleet said. It added that the capabilities “range from disaster relief and maritime security operations to sea control and complex warfighting.”
After year-long spat over Holocaust law, Poland says it’s returning envoy to Israel
Poland will send its ambassador-designate to present his letter of credence in the coming days, Polish leader Andrzej Duda told President Isaac Herzog on Monday, in the strongest indication yet that the two countries are moving beyond a bitter year-long diplomatic spat.

Their phone call, during which Herzog requested the return of a Polish envoy, is part of a months-long joint initiative with the Foreign Ministry, according to the president’s office.

The two leaders spoke in English.

“Both presidents expressed their hope that any future issues between Poland and Israel will be solved through sincere and open dialogue and in a spirit of mutual respect,” read a statement from Herzog’s spokesman.

Poland is part of the four-member Visegrad Group, a bastion of support for Israel within the European Union. The Poland-Israel group in Poland’s parliament is the largest such caucus in the legislature, with 127 out of 460 deputies in the group.

But the two erstwhile allies have been locking horns since last year. In July 2021, Poland’s legislature passed a law effectively cutting off any future restitution to the heirs of property seized by the Nazis during the Holocaust. In response to the legislation, signed into law by Duda, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid called it “antisemitic and immoral.”
US says Abu Akleh bullet test inconclusive, IDF likely shot her by mistake
A US government probe concluded on Monday that an Israeli soldier likely unintentionally shot the fatal bullet that killed Al Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Akleh, although ballistic analysis was unable to establish conclusively whether the shot came from an Israeli gun or a Palestinian one.

“Ballistic experts determined the bullet was badly damaged, which prevented a clear conclusion,” US State Department spokesperson Ned Price said in a statement after American officials were allowed to oversee an examination of the shell, which had been withheld by the Palestinian Authority until Saturday.

Abu Akleh, an American citizen, was killed during an Israeli raid in the Jenin refugee camp in mid-May. During the arrest operation, a firefight broke out between Israeli forces and Palestinian gunmen, and Abu Akleh was shot in the head, with Israeli and Palestinian officials trading blame.

For weeks, Israeli military officials said that they had identified a soldier’s gun that may have fired the shot that killed Abu Akleh, but said that confirmation would require ballistic analysis to match the gun to the bullet. But the Palestinian Authority refused to turn over the round or conduct a joint investigation with Israel. Ramallah’s own investigation found that Abu Akleh had been shot from behind by Israeli troops.

The PA only agreed to transfer the round to the US embassy in Jerusalem for examination on Saturday. Palestinian officials claimed that American experts would examine the bullet, but according to the Israeli army, an American general merely observed an Israeli investigation.

The US probe into Abu Akleh’s disputed killing was led by United States Security Coordinator Gen. Michael Penzel, who oversees security ties between Israel and the Palestinians. Penzel’s office was granted full access to both Israeli and Palestinian investigations into Abu Akleh’s death, Price said.

“The USSC concluded that gunfire from IDF positions was likely responsible for the death of Shireen Abu Akleh. The USSC found no reason to believe that this was intentional but rather the result of tragic circumstances,” Price said.


IDF foils another Hamas honeypot attempt
The IDF has uncovered and foiled yet another Hamas network posing as young women on social networks in order to honeypot IDF soldiers in order to access as much information and intelligence on the military that they can.

The fake accounts that were identified as Hamas operators were Hodaya Shetrit, Racheli Benisti and Adina Goldberg.

The seemingly innocent profiles approached Israelis over the past month on Telegram and various social networks that dealt with soccer and dating and tried to implant spyware under the guise of a puzzle app.

"The profiles corresponded with soldiers in order to establish a connection that would allow them to take the next step and entice them to download a game, which would later turn out to be a malicious attack tool," a senior officer in Military Intelligence was quoted by the IDF as saying.

The app would allow the attacker, Hamas, to gain almost complete control over the soldier’s device. It would then be used to gather critical information and even track the soldier.

The network was identified after a soldier reported a suspicious conversation that he had with someone on Telegram.
IDF Arrests Two Infiltrators From Gaza Armed With Knives, Grenade
Israeli forces have detained two Palestinians who infiltrated into southern Israel from the Gaza Strip, the Israel Defense Forces announced on Sunday.

A grenade and two knives were found on the suspects, the military said in a statement.

Meanwhile, the IDF together with the Israel Security Agency and Border Police arrested 13 suspects and confiscated a number of illegal weapons during counter-terror operations in Judea and Samaria on Sunday night, according to the military.

Raids and arrests occurred in Jenin, Nablus, Ramallah, and in the towns of ad-Dhahiriya, Rashida and Iskaka, said the IDF.
46% hike in number of West Bank Palestinians killed by Israeli forces - UN
The number of Palestinians killed by Israeli security forces in the West Bank and east Jerusalem increased by 46% in the first half of 2022, when compared with the same period last year, the UN reported over the weekend.

From January to June, 60 Palestinians were killed compared to 41 in those same six months in 2021, the local UN human rights office stated. According to the UN, there were 78 Palestinian fatalities at the hands of Israeli security forces for all of 2021 and 24 such fatalities in 2020.

The office, which is connected to UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet, did not distinguish in its report between Palestinians killed in the midst of terror activity, those killed in clashes with the IDF or those who were bystanders to violence.

It accused Israeli security forces, such as the IDF, Border Police and Israel Police, of using a disproportionate response contrary to international law.
PMW: Hamas is more popular than Fatah and its popularity keeps growing
One of the backbones of Israeli, American and European policy vis-à-vis the Palestinian Authority over years has been to attempt to encourage Palestinian popular support for Mahmoud Abbas and his Fatah party, and reduce Palestinian support for Hamas, an internationally designated terror organization.

However, the results of Palestinian public opinion surveys over the last four years, show the steady growth in popularity of Hamas, and its leaders, at the expense of Fatah and its leaders.

Every quarter, the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) releases a poll, inter alia, looking at the relative popularity of Fatah and Hamas. Comparing the results of the June polls for the last 4 years shows the steady and consistent growth of Palestinian support for the Hamas terror organization:
- In the June 2022 poll, if elections for the position of PA chairman were held the result would be a major win for Hamas with Ismail Haniyeh receiving 55% and Mahmoud Abbas only 33%. This result represents a major reversal and substantial rise in the popularity for Hamas. In 2019, Abbas would have defeated Haniyeh 48% – 42%.

- Another indicator of Palestinian support for terror, is that the only way a Fatah candidate could defeat the Hamas candidate would be if Fatah were to run a convicted terrorist prisoner, Marwan Barghouti, who is currently serving five life sentences for his part in the murder of four Israelis and a Greek Orthodox priest.

- In polls comparing preferences for the Palestinian parliament (PLC) in 2019, Fatah was more popular by 9% than Hamas (39%-30%) but in 2022 Hamas now wins by 1% (36%-35%). However, as Palestinian Media Watch has already shown, prior to the PLC elections that were scheduled for May 2021, Fatah fell apart dividing into three parties, each claiming to represent the “real Fatah.” Accordingly, the 35% support for “Fatah” in the recent poll, is actuality far greater than the true support for any single Fatah party.
Reports of Abbas' failing health see PA succession race heat up
Although Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has failed to appoint a successor, despite his old age and health problems, contenders for the leadership have already begun competing, albeit far from the public eye.

Fatah leadership would never admit to such a sensitive matter, and therefore, as long as Abbas, 86, is president, the battle is waged behind closed doors.

Nevertheless, such adamant silence has recently been fractured by rumors of Abbas' poor medical condition – he is said to undergo routine health checks abroad – and potential candidates have begun warming up on the sidelines.

Marwan Barghouti is one such possible contender. A convicted terrorist, he is serving several life sentences in Israeli prison. Being in jail actually works in Barghouti's favor as it adds to his popularity among Palestinians. Top Fatah consider him a credible threat and prefer he stay in jail.

Hussein al-Sheikh, a favorite of Abbas', has recently been appointed by the president to the position of secretary-general of the Palestine Liberation Organization. As civil affairs minister, Al-Sheikh has also enjoyed a special status due to his work with Israel-related matters. He too has served in Israeli jail, for 11 years.

Politically speaking, Al-Sheikh and Abbas have the same approach. He too prefers dialogue over armed resistance and supports coordination with Israel. He gradually gained Abbas' trust, and accompanies the leader in all meetings. He also managed to gain the favor of Israel and the US.

Mohammed Dahlan and Abbas share a deep rivalry. The former leader of Fatah in Gaza, Dahlan was ousted in 2011 and has lived in the United Arab Emirates ever since. He attempted to establish forces in refugee camps in Palestinian territories, but Abbas eliminated his project. Dahlan is considered one of the biggest critics of the PA.
“Palestine belongs to the Palestinians from the river to the sea” - Fatah official
“Pass this from generation to generation… Palestine belongs to the Palestinians from the river to the sea” - Fatah official

Jenin District Governor Akram Rajoub: The Palestinian narrative that needs to be sown in the minds of our children in all fields, in economy, culture, heritage, struggle, and in raising the flag is: ‘‘Palestine for the Palestinians.’’ Yes, Palestine for the Palestinians. From the [Jordan] River to the [Mediterranean] Sea. Yes! From the river to the sea. Your national responsibility is to pass this from generation to generation to our children: That Palestine belongs to the Palestinians from the river to the sea… We agreed to the 1967 borders, to establish our state in them, but in our minds and in the minds of our [future] generations, it needs to be established that Palestine [from the river to the sea] belongs to the Palestinians.” [Facebook page of the Fatah Commission of Information and Culture, June 15, 2022]

Jenin District Governor Akram Rajoub made this statement at a conference of the Jenin Chamber of Commerce and Industry at the Jenin Shopping Festival 2022.




Lebanese leaders slam Hezbollah for flying drones at Israeli gas rig
Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister on Monday criticized the terror group Hezbollah for sending three unmanned aircraft toward an Israeli gas installation last week, saying it was an unnecessarily risky action.

Najib Mikati’s comment came two days after Hezbollah launched three drones headed for the Karish gas field in the Mediterranean Sea.

The Israeli military said on Saturday that it had shot down the three drones, whereupon Hezbollah issued a statement saying they were unarmed and were sent on a reconnaissance mission. “The mission was accomplished and the message was received,” Hezbollah said.

Energean Israel, the company that currently operates the Karish gas field, said the gas rig was safe and that its ongoing operations had not been disrupted by the incident.

Lebanon claims the Karish gas field is disputed territory under ongoing maritime border negotiations, while Israel says it lies within its internationally recognized economic waters.

“Lebanon believes that any actions outside the state’s framework and diplomatic context while negotiations are taking place is unacceptable and exposes it to unnecessary risks,” Foreign Minister Abdallah Bouhabib said, citing Mikati’s statement.
US State Dept: 30 Governments Discuss Hizbullah's Ongoing Global Terrorist Plotting
The Law Enforcement Coordination Group (LECG) focused on countering Hizballah’s terrorist and illicit activities convened in Europe on June 29-30 for its ninth meeting. More than 30 governments – from the Middle East, South America, Central America, Europe, Africa, Indo-Pacific, and North America – participated in this session, along with Europol.

Participants discussed Hizballah’s ongoing global terrorist plotting, weapons procurement, and financial schemes, and outlined how Hizballah may adapt in the future to evade law enforcement detection. LECG members discussed how law enforcement or financial tools can be used to disrupt Hizballah terrorist and criminal activities, and associated networks.

The LECG also featured governments from Europe, South and Central America, and the Indo- Pacific that have taken national level action in recent years to designate, ban or restrict Hizballah from operating on their territory. LECG participants noted that these actions demonstrate the growing recognition among our partners about the need to cooperate on our efforts to counter Hizballah’s global terrorist networks. Officials from the U.S. Departments of State, Justice, Treasury, as well as from the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration also participated in this meeting. The LECG will convene again in 2023.


Israel Hoping for Shift in U.S. Policy on Iran
Over the past year and a half, Iran has dragged its feet on diplomacy, refusing even to meet face-to-face with the Americans, while quietly advancing its nuclear program. Iran has violated commitment after commitment on its nuclear program: on enrichment, centrifuge development and production of uranium metals, without any repercussions from the international community.

At the same time, Gulf states have suffered drone and cruise missile attacks on civilian targets, including airports and oil installations, while Iran itself suffered no direct cost for its unprovoked attacks.

Iran today is no longer under the pressure that it felt when it agreed to the original nuclear deal in 2015. Without pressure, the Iranians agree to nothing. Today, with energy prices sky-high, Iran has found buyers for its sanctioned oil that has produced a windfall. Meanwhile, the Biden Administration has held off on penalizing recipients of Iran's illegal exports for fear of worsening the energy crunch that has already driven gas prices to unprecedented levels.

In light of all this, most Israeli security professionals have concluded that only the application of massive additional pressure on Iran will convince the mullahs to compromise. Now is the time to return to a policy of pressure. Only if Iran's leaders truly believe that the very stability of the regime is at risk will they be open to compromise.

This requires American contingency planning and military training operations to convince Iran that the U.S. commitment to act militarily to prevent its nuclear progress is real. At the same time, a policy of pressure would include reinvigorated sanctions, especially in the fields of energy and finance, including a willingness to target Chinese purchases of Iranian oil.

Letting Iran proceed on its current path is bound to be worse for U.S. interests. If America doesn't get its hands dirty now with restoring deterrence to its relationship with Iran, Iran will become a nuclear threshold state. Without American action before then, Israel will feel isolated, alone and compelled to consider measures to prevent what it would view as a strategic catastrophe.
Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger Slams Talks to Renew Iran Nuclear Deal
Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, 99, said in an interview: "I was extremely doubtful about the original nuclear agreement. I thought Iran's promises would be very difficult to verify, and that the talks really created a pattern in which the nuclear build-up might have been slowed down a little but made more inevitable. As a result, countries in the region, particularly Israel - Iran's chief enemy - but also Egypt and Saudi Arabia - whom they see as principal competitors - were going to be driven into reactions which might make the situation much more explosive."

"Now, the trouble with the existing nuclear talks is that it is very dangerous to go back to an agreement that was inadequate to begin with - to modify it in a direction that makes it apparently more tolerable to the adversary. So all the concerns I had with the original agreement, I'm going to have now."

"There is really no alternative to the elimination of an Iranian nuclear force. There is no way you can have peace in the Middle East with nuclear weapons in Iran, because before that happens, there is a high danger of pre-emption by Israel, because Israel cannot wait for deterrents."
Israel Weighs Options for Confronting Iran in Event of Nuclear Deal
Israel's Channel 12 aired a video last week said to document the results of a June 27 cyberattack that set fire to parts of a plant operated by Iran's state-owned Khuzestan Steel Company and caused heavy damage. Israel and Iran are waging an escalating cyberwar that has inflicted far more damage on Iran than on Israel.

Meanwhile, Israel's Mossad intelligence agency sees a new nuclear agreement with Iran as a done deal and discounts reports of poor prospects for a breakthrough. "We are clearly identifying a burning desire to reach an agreement, compromises that the sides have agreed on, and an ongoing striving for this goal," a top Israeli security source said.

"It should also be stressed once again that a nuclear agreement is a bad option for Israel to the extent of posing an existential threat. It will hand Iran a 'license to kill' within a few years and turn it into a nuclear threshold state verging on a nuclear state. Israel must make clear that it will not be bound by such an agreement."

Meanwhile, Israel is compiling a list of diplomatic measures to be presented to President Biden during his upcoming visit on July 13-14, designed to increase pressure on Iran and create leverage that would force it to abandon its nuclear program. "So far, the West and the United States have not used all the diplomatic and economic tools at their disposal. On the contrary, far from it," said the senior Israeli security source. "We intend to...present him [Biden] with a clear alternative."
Iranian media claims cyberattack on planned Tel Aviv metro
According to “media sources,” there was a “massive cyberattack against operating systems and servers of the Tel Aviv Metro,” Iran’s semiofficial Fars News Agency reported Monday.

The report was based on the Telegram channel of Sabareen, a militant Palestinian group. Iran will often launder rumors online to try to make them appear to be reality. At other times, it uses this method to disseminate information it wants communicated to the public.

What did the report actually say?
After reports of the “attack,” a clarification was made that the cyberattack was actually against a company that is involved with construction of the Tel Aviv regional subway system, Fars reported. This is because the Metro, which will eventually augment the Tel Aviv Light Rail, is still under construction and is embroiled in a political dispute in Israel.

This was the “second time that the government websites and servers of the Zionist regime have been targeted by cyberattacks from Iraq,” the report said. “The latest attack of this type dates back to the end of last June.”

This was one of several cyberattacks, including one last year that “disabled the largest transport company of the Zionist regime,” Fars reported.

Other reports based on Sabareen’s Telegram channel have asserted that Iraqi hackers targeted “Israeli digital intelligence” and that the hacker group “Al-Tahera” in Iraq was involved.




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