Friday, July 15, 2022

07/15 Links Pt1: Melanie Phillips: Warm words and empty gestures; Biden: I support two states based on pre-1967 lines; Biden visits east Jerusalem without Israeli flag on limousine

From Ian:

Melanie Phillips: Warm words and empty gestures
Yet America’s fixation with doing a deal remains unshakeable. The White House is insisting that even Iran’s decision to send drones to Russia won’t affect the negotiations. When Lapid insisted that diplomacy wouldn’t stop Iran's nuclear programme, Biden publicly disagreed and insisted that “diplomacy is the best way”.

Nevertheless, there’s been a slight shift in language. Biden said he was prepared to use military force “as a last resort” to stop Iran’s growing nuclear programme.

This week, Biden and Lapid signed the Jerusalem Declaration formalising the US-Israel Strategic Partnership. This says that America and Israel will “use all elements of national power” — which would include military measures — to ensure that Iran doesn’t obtain a nuclear weapon.

But what does this mean? Given the Biden administration’s previous form, that “last resort” would probably not be until an Iranian nuclear missile was on the point of being fired. For the Israelis, the “last resort” would undoubtedly arrive far sooner. If Israel were to attack Iran, would the US help — or try to stop it?

And Biden’s declaration that Iran will never get a nuclear weapon is hollow, considering that the Obama administration made the same pledge even as it formulated the 2015 deal that guaranteed Iranian nuclear break-out capacity with only a few years’ delay.

So a measure of scepticism about “military force” is in order, particularly in view of what is assumed to be the real reason for Biden’s visit — to plead with the Saudis to pump more oil to bring down the price and thus relieve the fuel crisis precipitated by Russia's war against Ukraine.

And to persuade the Saudis to do this, Biden has to convince them that America seriously intends to stop Iran in its tracks. Hence the “military force” reference.

But as Lapid told Biden, Iran will only be deterred by a credible threat of military action. A really credible signal would be for the United States publicly to announce its intention to give Israel the weaponry with which it could destroy Iran’s nuclear sites.

Absent a signal of that kind, there is no reason why the Saudis or anyone else should change their view that the United Sttes under Biden is a busted flush — prepared to offer no more than the warm words and empty gestures that have been on such conspicuous display this week.




JPost Editorial: Biden must set a deadline for Iran nuclear talks
While Biden understandably wants to try to reach a diplomatic resolution that will stop Iran, there needs to be a deadline, and the Iranians need to know that they cannot drag this on forever.

The US also has tools. One is presenting the Iranians with a credible military threat. The other is upping the sanctions against Iran while threatening that more will be imposed if the Islamic Republic continues to stall and to spin its centrifuges.

Iran is a threat that will not simply go away on its own, and needs a comprehensive solution in which America needs to lead. Waiting is not a strategy.

As Seth Frantzman wrote in The Jerusalem Post this week, Tehran by hosting Russian President Vladimir Putin next week is trying to showcase that it can work with countries that want to unseat the US as a global hegemonic power.

This is the messaging Iran is putting out, and one that Turkey, Pakistan, China, Russia and other authoritarian regimes believe in.

A clearer message than the one Biden presented in Israel is needed for Iran to understand that it cannot continue on its current path.

The first step would be to set a deadline for the talks. The Iranians need to know that the world will not wait, and that if they do not comply, they will ultimately pay a price.
Gantz presents Biden with clandestine Israeli-Arab defense pacts
Amid the backdrop of various reports of a potential diplomatic breakthrough between Israel and Saudi Arabia during US President Joe Biden's visit to the region, the Wall Street Journal on Thursday reported that Israel and Arab countries that are not a part of the Abraham Accords have already signed security agreements.

One historic diplomatic breakthrough was already achieved on Friday, as Saudi Arabia, without explicitly mentioning Israel, opened its airspace to "all air carriers," signaling the end of its longstanding ban on Israeli flights overflying its territory.

According to the report, which was based on a "person familiar with the matter," Defense Minister Benny Gantz presented Biden with a list of clandestine defense agreements Israel has with Arab countries in the region, including those with which it does not have official diplomatic ties.

The report also noted that talks to establish a joint regional air defense alliance between Israel and some Arab countries have slowed recently, amid concerns from some of the Arab nations involved.


Israel Greenlights Deal on Red Sea Islands Ahead of Biden’s Saudi Visit: Report
Israel on Thursday approved the framework of a US-brokered deal concerning two strategic Red Sea islands, local media reported, in a move that could help pave the path for Saudi Arabia to take steps to normalize relations with the Jewish state.

The agreement relates to the islands of Tiran and Sanafir, which are strategically situated along the Straits of Tiran, a waterway that links the Gulf of Aqaba to the Red Sea. Egypt transferred sovereignty over the islands to Saudi Arabia in 2017, though the arrangement has not been finalized, amid outstanding questions surrounding its impact on earlier security protocols agreed to with Israel, which does not maintain diplomatic relations with Riyadh.

The islands played a key role in hostilities between Israel and Egypt in the 20th century. Egypt’s closure of the Suez Canal and Straits of Tiran to Israeli shipping preceded the Suez Crisis in 1956, and its decision to close the straits in 1967 led to the Six-Day War, during which Israel captured Tiran and Sanafir.

Israel’s freedom of navigation through the Straits of Tiran was recognized by Egypt after the countries signed a peace treaty in 1979. Tiran and Sanafir were returned to Egyptian control, and a US-led international peacekeeping force was created to ensure compliance with the accord, including its guarantees of unhindered maritime passage.

Under the new reported deal greenlit by Israel, the international peacekeeping force stationed on the islands will move to the Sinai Peninsula, and surveillance cameras will be stationed to monitor the islands and straits instead, according to two unnamed Israeli officials cited by Walla news.
Saudi Arabia to Open Airspace to All Airlines, Including From Israel
Saudi Arabia said it would open its airspace to all air carriers, paving the way for more overflights to and from Israel, in a decision welcomed by US President Joe Biden who is due to visit the kingdom on Friday.

The Saudi General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA) said the country’s airspace was now open to all carriers that meet its requirements for overflights, in line with international conventions that say there should be no discrimination between civil aircraft.

The decision will “complement the efforts aimed at consolidating the kingdom’s position as a global hub connecting three continents and to enhance international air connectivity,” GACA added in a statement.

Bypassing Saudi Arabian airspace had added to flight times and increased fuel burn on some services to and from Israel.

US President Joe Biden welcomed the decision and said it was an important step towards building a more integrated and stable Middle East region.

“Today, I will be the first president of the United States to fly from Israel to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. As we mark this important moment, Saudi Arabia’s decision can help build momentum toward Israel’s further integration into the region, including with Saudi Arabia,” Biden said in a statement.


Lapid, Herzog raised issue of Israeli captives in Gaza with Biden
The issue of the four Israeli prisoners being held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip was raised by Prime Minister Yair Lapid when he spoke with US President Joe Biden on Thursday, KAN reported.

The weight of the US could significantly influence the development and trajectory of the negotiations, President Isaac Herzog emphasized during the meeting, according to KAN.

What's the background?
Just two weeks ago, ahead of Biden's visit, Hamas released an urgent warning of the deteriorating health of one of the Israelis still in Gaza, releasing a video hours later to back up the announcement.

Hamas is understood to be holding captive two Israeli civilians, both of whom suffer from mental illness. It is believed that as a result of this illness, they crossed into Gaza.

Ashkelon resident Avera Mengistu, originally from Ethiopia, has been held captive since he entered Gaza in September 2014. Hisham al-Sayed, from the Bedouin town of al-Hura in the Negev, entered Gaza in April 2015.

Separately, Hamas is also believed to be holding the remains of two soldiers killed in the 2014 Gaza war: Lt. Hadar Goldin and Sgt. Oron Shaul.
Biden's visit to Augusta Victoria is controversial
President Joe Biden is justifiably proud of his long history of support for Israel, dating back to his 1973 meeting as a first-term senator with then-prime minister Golda Meir. His current visit to Israel should be an occasion to renew and reaffirm both his personal relationship and the ironclad US-Israel alliance. However, poor staff work by the US threatens to create a controversy that once again turns a Biden visit into a bad news story for a US administration.

We have seen this movie before. In March 2010, during a visit by then-vice president Biden, the Jerusalem municipality announced a housing construction tender in a Jerusalem neighborhood called Ramat Shlomo.

With US media experts interpreting this as a calculated slight of the US vice president, Biden abruptly changed the tone of his visit and gave a press statement at the start of a state dinner in Jerusalem to “condemn this decision by the Israeli government to advance planning for housing units.” The media made his anger with Israel the theme of all subsequent reportage of his visit.

If the goal of the Biden statement in 2010 were to put down a marker on settlement construction – and perhaps to influence Israeli public opinion – then the choice of Ramat Shlomo as its focus was ill considered.

Israelis were surprised. Ramat Shlomo is not in east Jerusalem geographically – it is in the northwest of Jerusalem, on a hill overlooking both of the highways connecting west Jerusalem to the rest of Israel. To its east is the Israeli neighborhood of French Hill, residence of Hebrew University professors and Peace Now founders.

Down the slope from Ramat Shlomo is Israel’s 9/11 memorial, where all 2,974 names of those killed that day are inscribed. Members of Congress had attended its opening the prior year. The 1949-1967 ceasefire line (which Ramat Shlomo straddles) wound around the hills of Jerusalem, creating security threats that are a bitter memory for Israelis.

Today, Israelis daily commute past this new neighborhood, long since built and flourishing, heading to Tel Aviv. They have nicknamed it Givat Biden (Biden Heights).
Biden visits east Jerusalem without Israeli flag on limousine
US President Joe Biden’s motorcade no longer had Israeli flags on it during a visit to a Palestinian hospital in east Jerusalem on Friday, despite his assurances that the stop is not a statement about Israeli sovereignty in its capital city.

The Biden administration refused to allow Israeli officials to accompany him on the visit to the hospital, where he announced $100 million in aid to the medical network.

"Biden's visit to east Jerusalem without official Israeli accompaniment is a destructive move towards Israel, even if it was done with smiles and handshakes," commented Religious Zionist Party MK Orit Struck. "Biden knows very well that that would never be allowed in Washington by a foreign leader and understands how much that hurts Israel's national pride, doing it in Jerusalem."

Spoken and unspoken signals
That rejection was seen by many in Israel as signaling that he does not recognize Israeli sovereignty in that part of the city. However, when asked at a press conference on Thursday whether that is how the situation should be understood, he said no.
"Today’s pictures of his limousine on its way to east Jerusalem, without the Israeli flag that has been flying at its helm until now, highlights the message he is trying to send; that the sovereignty of Jerusalem, Israel’s eternal capital, is on the table for negotiation."
World Likud Chairman Danny Danon

In the White House statement about his meeting with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, which took place after the hospital visit, “President Biden reiterated the US position that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel and that it continues to be the policy of the United States that the specific boundaries of Jerusalem must be resolved through final status negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians.”


Biden: I support two states based on pre-1967 lines
US President Joe Biden pledged his support for a two-state resolution based on the pre-1967 lines with mutual swaps when he held a joint press conference with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas on Friday in Bethlehem.

He did not cede to Abbas' request to unilaterally recognize a Palestinian state, but he spoke of a "future Palestinian state" and one with continuous territory.

"Two states along the 1967 lines with mutually agreed swaps, remains the best way to achieve equal measures of security prosperity freedom and democracy for the Palestinians as well as Israelis.

“The Palestinian people deserve a state of their own that is independent, sovereign, viable and continuous,” Biden said.

When will Israel and the PA hold talks?
Despite this, he said, the ground is "not ripe" at "this moment to restart negotiations."

It is possible, however, he said, to use Israel's new ties with its neighbors to improve relations with the Palestinians.

“At this moment, when Israel is improving relations with nations throughout the region we can harness that same momentum to reinvigorate the peace process between the Palestinian people and the Israelis,” Biden said.

When it came to Jerusalem, Biden said, “it was central to the national visions of both Israelis and Palestinians.”


Abbas called for end to Israeli apartheid in press remarks with Biden
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas called for an end to Israeli "apartheid" and warned that the two-state solution would not be on the table forever as he called on Israel to sit with him to make the "peace of the brave."

He spoke at a joint press conference with US President Joe Biden in Bethlehem on Friday.

"We are looking forward to the efforts of your administration to close the chapter of the Israeli occupation of our land and ending the act of racial discrimination, the apartheid against our people, and halt unilateral actions," Abbas said.

The US has been blunt about its opposition to accusations of Israeli apartheid, but Biden did not respond to Abbas' use of that language.

Abbas in his speech called on the United States to unilaterally recognize the state of Palestine.

"The key to peace and security in our region begins with recognizing the state of Palestine and enabling the Palestinian people to achieve their legitimate rights in accordance with international legitimacy resolutions."

Abbas said he looked forward to steps that US could take to strengthen its relations to the PA.
PMW: Will President Biden revoke the PLO’s designation as an active terrorist organization?
In their upcoming meeting, PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas plans to demand that US President Biden revoke the designation of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) as a terror organization. The request is very personal since it is Abbas who stands at the head of the PLO.

Making this demand, Abbas expects President Biden to ignore the fact that members of the PLO, including Abbas’ own Fatah party, are still actively involved in inciting, promoting, and participating in terror.

Just recently, a song praising the machine gun as “a friend, brother, and comrade” was posted by Fatah. The song, originally exposed by Palestinian Media Watch as having been broadcast by official PA TV on Fatah’s anniversary earlier this year, glorifies the machine gun and its bullets as “the path to salvation”:
Lyrics: “My machine gun is in my hand, and I want to continue marching
Our occupied land will not return for free…
My machine gun and my bullets are the path to salvation
Whoever stops my advance – I will shoot them in the head…
My machine gun is my friend, my brother, and my comrade …
My machine gun is on my shoulders, it is my mattress and my blanket
As long as we are together, we will never be afraid”
Text on screen during the song: “Fatah - the birth of the revolution and the voice of the storm (i.e., "Al-Asifa," Fatah military unit). We continue until freedom”
[Facebook page of the Fatah Commission of Information and Culture,
July 8, 2022, Official PA TV, Jan. 1, 2022]

Presumably Abbas hopes to hide Fatah’s promotion of violence, since after PMW saw the post, Fatah has unpublished the video in what appears to be an act of self-censorship prior to President Biden’s visit, and it no longer appears on the page of the Fatah Commission of Information and Culture as above.

However, this one act of artificial self-censorship cannot hide the extensive evidence PMW has amassed that document Fatah's incitement and terror promotion.


Saudis reportedly repeatedly rejected requests by PA’s Abbas to visit before Biden
Saudi Arabia rejected repeated requests from Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to visit the kingdom before US President Joe Biden’s trip to Israel, the West Bank and Saudi Arabia, according to an unsourced Channel 12 report.

Abbas reportedly asked the Saudis several times to come and visit before Biden’s trip and was refused. Finally, a few days ago, he was granted a short phone conversation with Riyadh’s King Salman, but still no visit.

This comes against the background of reports that Saudi Arabia will take steps toward warming ties with Israel, despite constant Palestinian appeals to regional states not to warm relations with Israel in the absence of substantive progress toward Palestinian statehood.

Channel 12 also reports that Iran is stepping up pressure on Iraq’s Prime Minister Mustapha Al-Kadhimi, the ninth participant at Biden’s planned meeting with Arab leaders, trying to convince him not to attend.
Palestinian factions urge Abbas to call off meeting with Biden
Palestinian radical factions on Thursday called on Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to cancel his meeting with US President Joe Biden on Friday in protest of Washington’s “bias” in favor of Israel.

The call on Thursday came in response to the Jerusalem US-Israel Strategic Partnership Declaration, which was signed on Thursday between Prime Minister Yair Lapid and Biden.

The meeting between Abbas and Biden is scheduled to take place in Bethlehem on Friday.

A senior Palestinian official in Ramallah expressed outrage over the signing of the Israeli-US declaration, but said Friday’s meeting would not be canceled.

“What’s left to talk about with the Palestinians after such a declaration?” the official asked. “This declaration proves that the Palestinian issue is not at the top of the Biden administration’s list of priorities. It also shows that the US administration is more interested in strengthening Israel’s security and promoting normalization with the Arab countries at the expense of the Palestinians.”


1 hurt after Israelis come under Palestinian fire at Joseph’s Tomb
An Israeli man was injured during an uncoordinated visit to Joseph’s Tomb in the West Bank city of Nablus early Friday, after he and several other people came under Palestinian fire, according to Hebrew media reports.

The Israel Defense Forces said a group of four Israelis entered the shrine and were attacked by gunmen as they were leaving. They then attempted to escape in their vehicle, but it overturned, forcing them to leave the car and exit the city on foot.

According to the military, they were picked up by Israeli troops, who administered first aid and were planning to hand the men over to the police.

The IDF conducted a search of the area, according to reports, but it was not immediately clear if the assailants were caught.

Jewish pilgrimages to Joseph’s Tomb, located on the outskirts of the West Bank city of Nablus, are generally allowed only once a month and under heavy security. During these visits, Palestinians often throw rocks at the troops and frequently attack them with Molotov cocktails and gunfire.




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