Tuesday, December 03, 2024
Elder of Ziyon
Everybody is talking about the hostages who are being held so violently, inhumanely, and against the will of the entire World, in the Middle East - But it’s all talk, and no action! Please let this TRUTH serve to represent that if the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East, and for those in charge who perpetrated these atrocities against Humanity. Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied History of the United States of America. RELEASE THE HOSTAGES NOW!
This is very nice, and it has helped the families of the hostages feel better.
But what, in reality, can Trump do to help gain the release of the hostages?
The open-ended threat is itself a useful tool - if it gets taken seriously by Hamas. Together with other factors like Israel successfully decoupling Hezbollah from Gaza, it could help prompt Hamas to be more flexible in hostage negotiations.
This is all assuming that Hamas can still operate as a top-down organization that actually controls the whereabouts and treatment of the hostages, which is not at all obvious.
But if Trump enters office without a hostage release, and doesn't do anything major, it makes America look weak. It would be no different from Obama's "red line" on chemical weapons in Syria or Biden's "Don't!" to Iran on attacking Israel.
If Hamas ignores the threat, what can the US do that Israel has not done?
Trump isn't going to bomb Gaza. There are already sanctions against Hamas leaders.
The US can stop pressuring Israel on humanitarian aid which is going to strengthen Hamas. That's something, but not much.
The most effective thing that could be done is also unlikely. Trump could pressure Qatar to stop propping up and supporting Hamas. But, as Jewish Insider notes, "[W]hen it comes to Qatar, the president-elect has been friendly, including hosting the Qatari emir in Florida in September and appointing former Qatar lobbyist Pam Bondi as attorney general and Steve Witkoff, who has financial ties to Doha, as Middle East envoy."
Trump can certainly strengthen sanctions on Iran to what they were before the Biden administration, but he would have done that anyway.
There may be some ways to pressure Turkey to pressure Hamas. But these are all diplomatic efforts, not "all hell to pay."
Trump may be hoping that his threat will prompt Hamas to release at least the American hostages the way Iran released the US Embassy hostages as soon as Ronald Reagan took office out of a vague fear that something bad could happen to the hostage takers. But this is a risky game.
While Trump's actions are always a wildcard, calling his bluff doesn't seem to leave many viable options. This could weaken his effectiveness throughout his term.
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