IPC statistics show that the Gaza food situation is improving, yet @theIPCinfo releases a report saying things are getting worse

The New York Times reports:

Gaza is at high risk of famine and almost half a million people there face starvation because of a catastrophic lack of food, a group of global experts said on Tuesday. The experts stopped short of saying that a famine had begun in the enclave as a result of Israel’s war against Hamas.

The analysis by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, or I.P.C., carries considerable weight. The group is a partnership of U.N. bodies and major relief agencies, and global leaders use its determinations to gauge the severity of hunger crises and allocate humanitarian aid.  

 The full IPC report has not been released, but they did publish a graphic of the current situation and their predictions, much as they did in February..

Here is what they said the situation was in February:

Here was their prediction at the time for July:

Here is their updated analysis of the situation today:

Not only is it much, much better than their dire predictions - but things are much better today than they were in February! The numbers that they measure as being in Phase 5 have been cut in half since February, and Phase 4 has been reduced as well, despite Israel's actions in Rafah, no more aid coming through Egypt and accusations that Israel is blocking and impeding aid.

Yet, the IPC insists, things are getting worse despite their own observations.

AP, which saw a draft of the report, quotes them: “The humanitarian space in the Gaza Strip continues to shrink and the ability to safely deliver assistance to populations is dwindling. The recent trajectory is negative and highly unstable. Should this continue, the improvements seen in April could be rapidly reversed.”

And their predictions for September are on the site:

Yet even their dire predictions show that things will be better in September than they were in February. 

There is a more fundamental problem here, though. The IPC definition of Phase 5 says 

Even with any humanitarian assistance at least one in five HHs in the area have an extreme lack of food and other basic needs where starvation, death, and destitution are evident.  

For the rare and extreme case of classifying Phase 5 (Famine), there must be evidence of all three outcomes of mortality (in particular CDR > 2/10,000/day), wasting (GAM > 30%) and food consumption (near complete Food Consumption gap for >20% of the population) according to the IPC Reference Table for Area classification. 

The IPC said in February that 676,000 people were in famine - meaning that we should expect to see two  adults or four children dying per 10,000 people every  day. So based on February figures, there should be well over a hundred people dying of starvation every day in Gaza; according to the current figures the number should be between 70-140 a day.  

By now, we should have seen about 18,000 Gazans starved to death, based on 100 deaths a day.

The latest Gaza health ministry report says that the total number of people who died from malnutrition  in Gaza in eight months is 34.

So not only is IPC terrible at predicting the future, but they are hugely unreliable in describing the present. Even though they tried to justify their classifying hundreds of thousands as being in Phase 5 based on what they described as credible reports months ago, by now it is obvious that practically no one is in Phase 5, or else there are many thousands of deaths that are inexplicably being hidden. 

An organization like IPC depends on accuracy and impartiality. These reports prove that it has neither. There is no way that there are currently 340,000 in Phase 5 today because there are simply almost no deaths - which is their own definition. 

 The only reasonable explanation is that they care more about slandering Israel than about saving the people of Gaza.

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