Tuesday, February 06, 2024
Elder of ZiyonIf the current military operation were to end immediately with reconstruction starting right away and the 2007-2022 growth trends were to persist with an average growth rate of 0.4%, it would take Gaza until 2092 just to restore the GDP levels of 2022, with GDP per capita and socioeconomic conditions continuously declining.However, even with the most optimistic scenario that GDP could grow at 10% annually, it would still take Gaza’s GDP per capita until 2035 to return to its pre-blockade level of 2006.The recovery of Gaza's economy from the current military operation will demand a financial commitment several times more than the $3.9 billion that resulted from the 2014 military operation in Gaza and will require a concerted international effort to restore pre-conflict socioeconomic conditions.
It bases its estimate of recovery in 2092 on a 0.4% average annual GDP growth rate, which is pretty low. But, they say, that was the average growth rate from 2007-2022 in Gaza.
Here is the GDP growth for Gaza and the West Bank combined from 1995 to 2022:
One can see that the annual GDP growth varied wildly from year to year. But in general, external events were what drove the Palestinian economy - and when things were more peaceful, their economy grew (with the exception of the Covid-19 drop.)
The first big spike came during the Oslo process when there was optimism and investment in Palestinian businesses. It all crashed with the second intifada terror spree. Things went up again as the intifada started winding down; they went down when Hamas won the 2006 election. There were dips for the 2009 Gaza war and the 2014 Gaza war.
Again, this is the West Bank and Gaza combined. Why would Gaza's annual rate be so much lower than the West Bank's?
Because when Palestinians try to kill Jews, their economy tanks. When they adhere to ceasefires, their economy prospers.
UNCTAD looks at Gaza's anemic 0.4% growth rate as the way things have to be. But they don't. If Gaza wasn't ruled by a genocidal death cult whose highest priority is martyrdom while killing Jews, Gaza's economy would be much better than it is and its GDP prospects would be a lot rosier.
Why wouldn't UNCTAD make this simple observation - that Palestinian aggression against Israel is the single biggest factor hurting its economy? That if Gaza will ever recover, it has to stop its habit of attacking Jews every couple of years?
The world simply doesn't expect Palestinians to even have the ability to act peacefully and like adults. No one says this out loud. But that is the reason no one points out what is obvious once you see it: the world expects Palestinians to prioritize killing Jews over the welfare of their own people and treats them accordingly.
But since that is racist, and peace is obviously nowhere on the horizon, people blame the adults in the room - Israel - for not making enough compromises with their would-be killers.
Combine this enormous cognitive dissonance with the religion of the Two State Solution, and it is only a short hop to the insane idea that if only the world would force Israel to give up land for a state filled with people who want to destroy it, we will finally have peace.
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