Friday, August 11, 2023

08/11 Links Pt1: A Not-So-Secret Conspiracy - The EU Encourages Palestinians to Violate the Oslo Accords; $6b ransom to Iran will lead to more terrorism, hostages

From Ian:

A Not-So-Secret Conspiracy - The EU Encourages Palestinians to Violate the Oslo Accords
This is Part 2 of a 10-part series exposing the underreported joint European and Palestinian program to bypass international law and establish a de facto Palestinian state on Israeli land.

The brutal wave of Palestinian terror attacks in 2000, which claimed the lives of over 1,000 Israelis in what came to be known as the Second Intifada, had a transformative effect on Israeli public opinion. It discredited the argument of the Israeli peace camp that by ceding land, Israel could buy peace.

Salim Fayyad, then the prime minister of the Palestinian Authority, recognized that terrorism had failed to break the Israeli spirit, and he needed a new plan. That plan was to build. Despite valid fears that Israeli authorities would immediately destroy any illegally erected structures in Area C, the Palestinians went ahead.

When the Europeans saw how Israeli leadership ignored much of the initial construction and understood what their protected Palestinian wards could get away with, they became massively involved, encouraging the Palestinians to build as if there were no Oslo Accords and guaranteeing legal assistance in the event that Israel enforced the law.

First, the European Union established consultancy offices of permanent representation in Ramallah (de facto embassies, but for a state that does not exist), and together with the PA developed multiple master plans to build infrastructure, roads, schools and other puzzle pieces that, when completed, would connect to form an uninterrupted band of Arab territory.

The EU also trained Palestinians in the use of advanced technology and helped to modernize their bureaucracy, essential tasks in order to overcome the conservative, tribal nature of Arab societies. This social model traditionally adhered to by the Palestinians is one factor in why they have failed to create a modern state, despite receiving more humanitarian aid than any group in history.

Dr. Yishai Spivak is an investigative researcher with Ad Kan, an Israeli nonprofit that studies organizations and trends that harm Israel’s sovereignty and Zionist identity.

“It wasn’t just about the Europeans throwing money at the Palestinians or teaching them to build single structures,” he explains. “It was about teaching them how to think about the other families so they could cooperate and share land. Fayyad had the vision. The EU led him by the hand and gave the vision a soul.”

Since 2009, the Europeans have invested anywhere from hundreds of millions to over 1 billion euros in Area C Palestinian development in the form of legal assistance, aid to administration and planning efforts, and direct subsidies for construction.
Mark Regev: Peace with Saudi Arabia is a real possibility
While Washington has been reticent to go down that route, Riyadh has a powerful argument: If America is willing to acquiesce to Iran, a professed enemy of the West, operating a “civilian” nuclear program, why can’t a loyal friend build a similar capability? (Many assume that the Saudis want a developed nuclear infrastructure for the eventuality that Tehran crosses the threshold).

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared Jerusalem-Riyadh normalization a key goal of his government, knowing full well it would be a geopolitical game-changer. The kingdom’s special status across the Arab world almost guarantees that additional Arab countries, who have been sitting on the fence, would follow Riyadh’s lead.

Moreover, Saudi Arabia enjoys a unique leadership role in the 57-nation Organization of Islamic Cooperation. If the kingdom was to make peace with Israel, Muslim-majority countries – from Southeast Asia to Sub-Saharan Africa – could follow suit.

While appreciating that relations with Riyadh would spur additional normalizations, many in Israel will remain wary about the kingdom having unfettered access to advanced US weaponry, as they surely will be over the idea of a Saudi nuclear program.

Of paramount importance is a parallel Jerusalem-Washington dialogue on the parameters and safeguards governing any nuclear development, as well as ensuring that the Saudi military upgrade will not adversely affect the IDF’s qualitative military edge (QME) to which the US is committed.

Presumably, the Palestinian issue cannot be sidelined. But if the Saudis once placed an Israeli withdrawal to the pre-1967 lines and the establishment of a Palestinian state as preconditions for normalization, today Riyadh is in a very different place.

While the kingdom is no longer willing to accept a Palestinian veto over its foreign policy, a deal may nonetheless necessitate Israeli concessions in the West Bank.

Netanyahu might be asked to publicly rule out any unilateral annexations, proclaim an openness to the possibility of eventual Palestinian statehood, and even limit settlement construction.

Although difficult, these sorts of steps are neither unprecedented nor impossible: In exchange for diplomatic relations with the UAE in 2020, Netanyahu shelved plans for annexation. He gave qualified acceptance of Palestinian statehood in his June 2009 Bar-Ilan speech, and more recently in his championing of Trump’s January 2020 “Deal of the Century” Israeli-Palestinian peace plan. He could also revisit the understanding of settlement growth discussed with the Trump White House.

Of course, while Netanyahu can be expected to rise to the occasion, it is not clear that all his coalition partners will go along too.
Dubowitz: $6b ransom to Iran will lead to more terrorism, hostages
Washington reached a deal with Tehran on Thursday to release five Iranian Americans, whom the Islamic Republic detained evidently on trumped-up charges. In exchange for the five being released to house arrest, the United States freed up $6 billion worth of Iranian oil and released Iranian prisoners.

Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, applauded the release of the unjustly detained prisoners, though said it comes at a very high cost, which could be counterproductive.

“Paying $6 billion in ransom payments means the regime will only take more hostages. This has become a lucrative means of international extortion for Iran’s supreme leader,” Dubowitz wrote in an FDD analysis.

The Islamic Republic won’t use that $6 billion for humanitarian work, he predicted.

“In the real world, where cash is fungible, it will free up $6 billion to be used for terrorism, funding drones for Russia, domestic repression and nuclear-weapons expansion,” he wrote. “Only when the regime is severely punished for illegally seizing hostages, not rewarded with billions in ransom payments, will it put a stop to these humanitarian abuses.”

Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at FDD, agreed. “This is not a prisoner exchange; it’s the largest hostage ransom payment in American history,” he wrote. “This money isn’t for humanitarian relief; it’s budget support to the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism.”

In a statement on Thursday, Adrienne Watson, spokeswoman for the National Security Council, called it “encouraging” that Siamak Namazi, Morad Tahbaz and Emad Shargi (and two Americans who did not want to be named) were released to house arrest. She noted that the five individuals should never have been detained at all.

“We will continue to monitor their condition as closely as possible,” she stated. “We will not rest until they are all back home in the United States.”


Mordechai Kedar: What Will Israel's Next War Will Look Like?
Mordechai Kedar, lecturer at Bar-Ilan University and vice president of the Israeli news site, Newsrael, spoke to an August 7th Middle East Forum Webinar (video) about his threat assessment of the next Middle East war against Israel. The following is a summary of his comments:

Pronouncements by many in Israel's military that they will refuse to serve in protest of the government's judicial reforms have weakened the Jewish state's invincible image. In the Middle East, "if you are powerful, people will respect you. If you are weak, you're doomed." Iran, its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Syria, and its proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon, all smell blood while watching Israel's internal dissent, thinking the nation is "easy prey." This is why Israeli media is openly discussing "worst-case scenarios" if its enemies take this as an opportunity to orchestrate a multi-front offensive to eliminate it.

Israel has a history of multi-front assaults by its enemies, borne out during the 1948 Independence War, the Six-Day War in 1967, the War of Attrition in 1969-70, and the Yom Kippur War in 1973. Today, Iran's efforts to connect Lebanon and Hezbollah, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Hamas in Gaza in a multi-pronged attack on Israel constitute the first characteristic of a worst-case scenario: internal strife. Exacerbating the external threat is the possibility of a repeat of the riots that erupted within Israel in May 2021, when Arab Israelis, who comprise 20 percent of the population, killed some Jews and destroyed synagogues before the violent outbreak was contained.

The second likely characteristic of the next war will be Hezbollah's launching of up to 150,000 missiles against Israel's gas extraction and storage facilities, other infrastructure, air bases, ships at sea, and its cities. Such an attack would lead to the third characteristic of the next war, in which Hezbollah targets expand beyond military sites and public infrastructure. Thus, Hezbollah and IRGC militias in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Hamas will deliberately rain down missiles and drones on Israeli civilians and inflict as many casualties as possible to demoralize the population. Israel is psychologically preparing itself for the Arabic doctrine of "resistance," or the persistent state of jihad called muqawama. As non-state actors, these militias are not considered states and would therefore not hesitate to commit total war in violation of the Geneva Conventions, which requires states to act in accordance with international law.


Iddo Netanyahu: The Israeli Left is Initiating a Military Coup | Top Story with Jonathan Tobin
Is the Israeli left by refusing to serve in the military holding the country hostage? Have we seen this before?

In this week’s episode of Top Story, JNS editor-in-chief Jonathan Tobin discusses the battle over judicial reform with Dr. Iddo Netanyahu, the physician and playwright who is the younger brother of the prime minister and the hero of Entebbe, Yoni Netanyahu.

They discuss
- the real issues underlying the battle for judicial reform
- the United States and American Jewry and what their place is, if any, in the current crisis
- the history of the left in Israel and how it impacts today
- Iddo's personal history in being a part of one of Israel's most illustrious and controversial families.


PodCast: Eli Lake dives deep into America
On this week’s episode of Jewish Insider’s podcast, co-hosts Rich Goldberg and Jarrod Bernstein are joined by columnist Eli Lake, formerly of Bloomberg, The Daily Beast and Newsweek and currently a contributing editor at Commentary Magazine and host of “The Re-education with Eli Lake” podcast, for a deep dive into America’s ever-changing political parties, where both parties stand on the FBI, former President Donald Trump’s latest indictment and Israel’s controversial judicial reforms.


Editor's Notes: How to create more pro-Israel progressives
I was reminded of our conversation this week, as 24 freshman Democratic members of Congress led by House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries and former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer visit Israel under the auspices of the American Israel Education Foundation (AIEF), a charitable organization affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). This is Jeffries’ second visit to Israel this year; it is Hoyer’s 20th time visiting the Jewish state. A similar AIEF delegation composed of Republican freshman members will be coming to Israel in November, led by Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy. In previous years, Democratic and Republican members have traveled to Israel together under bipartisan congressional leadership.

A person closely familiar with these trips told me that there are often young members of Congress who apply for their first-ever passports before they participate; this is their first time traveling outside the United States.

Participants from both sides of the aisle return to America, and to Congress, with a newfound appreciation of Israel, of its unique security challenges, and of the importance of the US-Israel relationship – and they vote accordingly.

The pro-Israel community engages in a great deal of hand-wringing over the Squad, a small band of young progressive lawmakers united by their deep hostility to Israel. In the days leading up to Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s recent address to Congress, for example, the media breathlessly reported about every Squad member who announced his or her intention to boycott the speech and speculated furiously about who else would be absent.

In the end, though, only seven progressive legislators – six members of the Squad, plus Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont – confirmed that they did not attend Herzog’s address for political reasons. That’s seven out of 535 members of Congress or slightly more than one percent.

Shortly before the speech, a House resolution asserting that Israel is not a racist state – which came after remarks by Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal suggesting that it is – and declaring that the United States “will always be a staunch partner and supporter of Israel” passed by a vote of 412 to nine. Jayapal herself voted in favor.

The reality is that Congress – including the large majority of the Democratic Caucus – is overwhelmingly pro-Israel. There are many reasons for that, most notable among them that America itself is overwhelmingly pro-Israel: surveys consistently show that Americans back Israel, support the US-Israel relationship, and regard the Jewish state as a close ally in massive numbers. Being pro-Israel is simply good politics, and it is one of the only truly bipartisan causes in America today.

But one cannot ignore the critical importance of visiting Israel in fostering lawmakers’ support for Israel. Groups hostile to Israel have grumbled that the Jewish state is the country most visited by members of Congress (which, according to congressional records, it appears to be). They hate these trips for exactly the same reason supporters of Israel love them: because they open participants’ eyes to the reality on the ground and make them more likely to understand and support the Jewish state.

Like Torres, numerous progressive members of Congress traveled to Israel with AIEF, local Jewish groups, and others early on in their political careers, and the overwhelming majority of them now align themselves with their party’s broad support for the US-Israel relationship. It’s an experience that works.

At the end of our conversation, I asked Torres how the pro-Israel community can create more pro-Israel progressives like him.

“There’s no substitute for traveling to Israel and experiencing the country firsthand in all its diversity and complexity,” he reiterated, noting that greater education in Israel is critical. “There are far too many people in American politics who are quick to render judgment on Israel without actually knowing much about the country, without actually having gone to the country or studied in depth, and there’s far more emotion than knowledge on the subject.”

“So I would recommend just more education and more outreach to members of Congress, and encouraging them to travel to Israel,” he concluded.

Amen, Congressman. Amen.


Michigan state senator apologizes Israel visit
A state senator in Michigan has apologized to her Arab and Muslim constituents for a recent visit to Israel with her fellow lawmakers.

Sylvia Santana, whose district includes part of Detroit. as well as Dearborn and Dearborn Heights, with a high concentration of Arab Muslims, posted the apology on social media.

“I recognize my presence on this trip has sparked anger and disappointment by many in the Arab/Muslim community,” she wrote.

“For this, I truly apologize, seek your forgiveness and hope that you will understand that I had no malicious intent. There is no perfect combination of words that I can offer that truly reflects the feelings in my heart. My only goal was to learn about this region of our world and to improve my understanding of matters related to Michigan.”

Santana described the visit as an “annual trip offered to state lawmakers to learn more about Michigan’s relationship with Israel.”

An official with the Jewish Federation of Metropolitan Detroit, David Kurzmann, confirmed in a statement to the Detroit Free Press that the federation facilitated the trip for several lawmakers.

Osama Siblani, publisher and editor-in-chief of the Dearborn-based Arab American News, said in a Facebook post that the trip took place at the end of July. He reported that a meet and greet at the Arab American-owned Custard Company in Dearborn on Aug. 7 was canceled after the trip became known.

“The news about Santana’s visit to Israel shocked and angered the Arab American community, to say the least,” Siblani wrote. “Santana’s visit constitutes a slap in the face to the Arab American community who has been supportive and respectful to the Senator.”


Israel takes possession of US landing craft after long delays
IDF Brig.-Gen. and Haifa Base commander Tal Politis and senior Defense Ministry officials took possession of the Nahshon landing craft from American officials in a ceremony in the US, it was announced on Wednesday.

During the ceremony, which took place on Tuesday, the Israeli Navy finally received the first of two such vessels, which will give the IDF significant new tactical options in any potential future war with Hezbollah.

Landing craft are small-to-medium-size naval vessels that are primarily utilized to transport soldiers, equipment, vehicles, and supplies to conduct offensive amphibious operations from sea to land.

IDF is getting much-needed landing craft
For decades, the IDF has been without such modern landing craft for mounting large amphibious assaults, leaving its troops to either attack enemy positions on land, through being transported by air, or only in very small numbers by sea.

Now, the IDF will have another critical tool for surprising Hezbollah, if needed, by dropping in significant new forces behind enemy lines.

The new vessels and the second one which is expected later had been reported to be on the way already in May 2022, and it is unclear what delayed their delivery for so long, though new significant weapon systems often experience unpredictable delays.

According to the IDF, the landing craft will also give the military more logistical options to enable it to transport equipment and supplies between land and sea should standard delivery routes become compromised in the midst of a conflict.

Israel’s navy had older landing craft from 1948 until 1993 when the last older vessel was decommissioned without being replaced.

However, in recent years, the military has been reinvesting more in the navy to maintain its weapons blockades of Gaza, Hezbollah, and Iranian proxies in Syria as well as to defend Israel’s new natural gas fields at sea.
Jewish Iranian stopped at airport on spying suspicions, sent back to Iran – Shin Bet
A Jewish Iranian man was questioned at Ben Gurion Airport and deported on Friday over suspicions of attempting to carry out espionage on behalf of Iranian intelligence, Israel’s Shin Bet security agency said.

The man, who has relatives in Israel, was detained by Shin Bet agents early Friday morning upon landing, the service said. The agency claimed that the man admitted to being in Israel to spy for Tehran and was promptly sent back to Iran via a third country, apparently after it was determined that he was not a threat.

The agency declined to say which country he had arrived from.

According to the Shin Bet, the man was instructed by Iranian security operatives to spy on Israel before he flew to the country. The agency said he was given an empty tissue box that would be used to hide surveillance equipment, including a cell phone and a mobile power bank.

“It is estimated that these means were handed to him in order to carry out secret espionage on targets in Israel,” the Shin Bet said.

The agency added that he was instructed to use his time in Israel to gather information on various targets, the addresses of which were to have been given to him by his Iranian handler after he landed.

“This incident is part of a broad Iranian effort to establish espionage and terror [networks] in Israel, alongside the influence on the internet to widen social divides,” the Shin Bet said.


Cops rule out racist motive in shooting of Palestinian; suspect to remain in custody
Police no longer believe a settler accused of killing a Palestinian in a West Bank clash last week was motivated by racism, a court heard Friday, as a judge ordered the suspect to remain behind bars until next week at least.

The court ruled police could keep Yehiel Indore in custody until Tuesday. Law enforcement requested a 10-day extension, claiming it had significant evidence supporting their case.

In a clash on August 4 in the Palestinian village of Burqa, 19-year-old Qusai Jamal Matan was allegedly shot dead by Indore, who was arrested a day later. He is being held under police guard in a hospital, where he is being treated for a serious head injury he sustained when a Palestinian threw a rock at him in the clash.

The high-profile case has garnered international attention, as US-led efforts to calm Israeli-Palestinian tensions have run up against what observers say are rising cases of settler-perpetrated violence against Palestinians, fanned by far-right rhetoric from government politicians.

At the remand hearing, police revealed they no longer suspect a racial motive for Indore’s actions but still suspect him of killing Matan with intent or indifference, participating in a riot, conspiracy to commit a crime and obstruction of justice. Indore has claimed he fired his gun in self-defense.

Police on Friday claimed there was a “significant development” in the investigation that strengthened their case against Indore.

“We arrive today more focused in terms of evidence and in terms of the offenses,” a police representative told the court.

“Whoever wears a mask is not defending themselves, to my understanding,” the official added.
Terrorist killed after firing at IDF soldiers
A terrorist who opened fire at IDF soldiers operating in Tulkarem was shot and killed when the soldiers returned fire.

According to Palestinian Authority reports, the terrorist was Mahmoud Jarad, age 23, a member of the al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades.

Last Friday, IDF forces exchanged fire with armed terrorists operating near Tulkarem, and one of the terrorists was killed.

According to IDF sources, the terrorist was killed after he was shot at and hit by shrapnel from an explosive device he was holding and trying to hurl at the soldiers. During the operation, violence broke out, with rocks and firebombs hurled at the soldiers, as well as shots fired at them. Explosive devices were also activated.

The soldiers responded with riot dispersal methods and with precise gunfire towards the terrorists. No soldiers were injured.


Palestinians hurl rocks, Molotov cocktails at Rachel's Tomb in West Bank
Palestinian rioters threw rocks, glass bottles, and Molotov cocktails at Jews praying at Rachel's Tomb, in Bethlehem, early on Thursday morning.

Footage from the scene shared by Border Police shows Palestinian men, some masked, hurling rocks inside the tomb complex as well as at oncoming traffic.

Border Police officers who were operating near the scene of the incident took action, shooting at the suspects' legs as well as using several riot dispersal measures.

Following the altercation, Israeli forces arrested one suspect involved in the riot.

The suspect, a resident of the West Bank city of Bethlehem, was detained and will be brought under investigation by the Border Police.
Palestinian trio indicted for seriously wounding man in Jerusalem terror stabbing
Three Palestinian teenagers were indicted Friday for seriously wounding an Israeli man during a recent terror stabbing in Jerusalem’s Gilo neighborhood.

According to prosecutors, 18-year-old Muhammad Alabiyat, 19-year-old Wizan Abiyat and a 17-year-old minor from the West Bank city of Bethlehem purchased three knives on July 20 and after praying at a mosque, traveled to nearby Gilo to commit an attack.

The suspects allegedly drove from the Palestinian town of Beit Jala on a dirt road, then got out and continued by foot to Gilo.

After reaching the Jerusalem neighborhood, they searched for a Jewish victim to stab while keeping their knives concealed, a statement from prosecutors said.

The group eventually approached a young man on the street and began to converse with him to ensure he was Jewish, and upon realizing he was stabbed him several times being fleeing back toward Bethlehem, the indictment alleged.

One of the knives remained lodged in the back of the victim, 25-year-old Or Sayer, while another was found by security forces at the scene. Prosecutors said the third blade remained with one of the suspects.
Policy expert on Abbas firing PA governors: Like ‘reshuffling deck
Mahmoud Abbas, the 87-year-old ailing Palestinian Authority president, is showing his desperation and corruption by trying to fire more than 80% of the authority’s regional governors, according to Washington analysts who follow the region closely.

“What is clear is that Abbas is losing control over the Palestinian territories,” Shoshana Bryen, senior director of the Jewish Policy Center, told JNS.

The octogenarian, who has grappled with numerous health issues, including bouts of cancer, “believes that he can posture and make demands to the United States, as there is speculation of a deal being made with Saudi Arabia,” she added.

Abbas doesn’t trust the 13 (of 16) Palestinian Authority governors, and he is “posturing” in his effort to can them, according to Bryen. She also called the move an act of desperation, as Abbas has not had definitive control of the Gaza Strip for more than 15 years.

Despite questions about whether the governors will ignore Abbas’s having fired them, Bryen said the Biden administration is inconsistent in how it criticizes Israeli judicial reform, which the president has said threatens Israel’s democracy, and its silence thus far on the firings of the P.A. governors.

“The first constitutes U.S. interference against a domestic democratic ally, while the second is an unwillingness to deal with something that has cross-border implications,” she said.

The White House, U.S. State Department and National Security Council did not respond to multiple requests from JNS for comment, including about whether Abbas’s continued reign since his election in January 2005—ostensibly, for a four-year term—constitutes a threat to democracy.

‘The P.A. needs to crack down on corruption’

Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president of research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told JNS that Abbas has failed to inspire confidence in the authority’s ability to operate in Judea and Samaria, also referred to as the West Bank.

“This is tantamount to reshuffling deck chairs on the Titanic,” he told JNS of Abbas’s recent efforts to fire the governors.
PA President Abbas dismisses governors for West Bank and Gaza in major shakeup
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas announced on Thursday the dismissal of Palestinian governors in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

The decision includes the governors for Nablus, Jenin, Qalqaylia, Tulkarem, Bethlehem, Hebron, Tubas, Jericho, Gaza, Khan Younes, and Rafah. The move was made under the pretext of early retirement.




Hezbollah is moving toward conflict with Israel!
Since the summer of 2022, we at the Alma Center have been assessing that Hezbollah is moving toward conflict with Israel. During a speech by Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah last summer, he gave clear ideological and religious authorization for such a confrontation.

At the same time, we saw a growing presence of Hezbollah commando operatives and the construction of military positions under civilian cover along the border.

To understand Hezbollah, one must first understand that its fundamental goal is to export the Islamic Revolution to Lebanon – and to take over the country. To achieve this fundamental goal, Hezbollah manages a long-term strategy (and not a strategy based on “tomorrow morning.”)

This strategy is the basis of Hezbollah’s thinking, considerations, risk management, and conduct. Israel is merely a tool for realizing this goal (Hezbollah knows full well that it will not conquer Israel in the near future, and its propaganda and psychological war in this regard are primarily aimed at the Lebanese audience and to maintain its narrative within Lebanon).

However, this does not explain the change in Hezbollah’s risk management over the past year and a half.

First, one can see from the timeline that there is not necessarily a connection between Hezbollah’s risk-taking and the internal crisis in Israel. The provocations began in the summer of 2022 under Israel’s previous government.

Second, Hezbollah, which must also justify its existence, appears to believe that the time has come to activate a mechanism to accelerate its takeover of Lebanon and use Israel as a platform to do this through a confrontation against it.

Hezbollah wants and needs this confrontation, and from its perspective,17 years since the last war with Israel, it is time for a reboot, after which, Hezbollah believes, the time will come for an “upgrade” that will accompany its takeover status in Lebanon.
Did the Fire in Al-Amalia Threaten Hezbollah’s Missile Components?
In the first week of August, a fire broke out in an underground area beneath a clothing store on Airport Road and below Al-Amlieh Supermarket /commercial center. The location is in the western section of Harat Harikh, near Fantasy World, a popular amusement park known for its Ferris wheel, and close to the Beirut Golf Club. According to the official story, the garment store warehouse at the store caught fire. Above: The location of the fire: Airport Road, Al-Fantazi Street, Al-Amalia Market building. On the right you can see the Ferris wheel which is inside the “Fantasy World” park. Above: On the left – Airport Road. In the large yellow rectangle is the “Fantasy World” park complex and in the small yellow square is the location where the underground fire started.

Many videos from the fire zone were shared on social media. In some of the footage, we identified members of Hezbollah’s civil defense squad functioning in the supermarket in addition to the fire and smoke pouring from underground. The Civil Defense Unit oversees emergency services like fire, search, and rescue. Rimon Khatar commands this unit. The unit is affiliated with Hezbollah’s Islamic Health Organization, whose medical personnel we also identified on the scene. The Executive Council of Hezbollah oversees the Islamic Health Organization and the Civil Defense Unit.

One of the videos shows Wafiq Safa, the head of Hezbollah’s coordination and liaison unit, and the head of the civil defense team, Rimon Khatar, speaking at the site in front of the media and the public.

Hezbollah’s coordination and liaison unit reports to the Executive Council. Safa is regarded as a “special missions man” for Hezbollah, particularly Nasrallah. He is formally in charge of interacting with various official bodies and cooperating with Hezbollah and Lebanon’s security services.

Why would a senior Hezbollah figure bother arriving at the site of the fire?


The Silence of the Lambs
Ladan Zarabadi, a gender studies scholar at UCLA, first began her academic career in the U.S. in 2010, after participating in Iran’s Green Movement protests the year prior. Initially receiving a Ph.D in architecture, she proceeded to transition into women’s sudies with a focus on Iranian feminist movements. Her experiences in her new academic environment, however, took her by surprise. She struggled to recognize the Iran she had lived in with the Iran that was portrayed by her peers.

“I was shocked. Why is there such a gap? What’s happening here?” she says.

Zarabadi is an unabashed critic of the Iranian regime and its human rights abuses—an attitude well within the mainstream of the Iranian diaspora. But on her affluent, Southern California campus, she felt that her critical stance toward the Iranian government placed her on the margins. Zarabadi found that her colleagues in U.S. academia were less interested in seeing Iran through the eyes of Iranians and more prone to positioning themselves in a dichotomous ideological battle between American progressives and conservatives—one in which excessive criticism of the regime in Tehran can be perceived as “right-wing” and even “imperialist.”

“It is not just about interpreting reality, it’s about interpreting reality in a certain way to fulfill a specific ideology or a specific discourse,” she tells me. While Zarabadi found that she was ostensibly welcomed as a woman of color, her colleagues tended to dismiss her actual lived experience and perspectives as an Iranian woman. Instead, she was told to “read the books.”

Over the last decade, progressive opinion on Iran has tended to be defined by a belief in gradualism and the stability of the Iranian regime. Wary of the potentially destructive effects of regime change in Iran, many American progressives have instead put their trust in “moderate” and “reformist” elements of the Iranian government, represented by individuals like former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and former President Hassan Rouhani, to form a bulwark against so-called “hardline” elements of the Iranian state. Central to this reading of Iran have been an acute concern with “militarization” of the U.S.-Iranian rivalry, a tendency to blame U.S. foreign policy for the excesses of the regime, and an aversion to criticism of Iran’s mandatory hijab policy, which American progressives see as Islamophobic—and overly reminiscent of the rhetoric of Republicans like Mike Pompeo and John Bolton.

The progressive understanding of Iran, however, has increasingly come into tension with the realities on the ground—tension exacerbated by the recent “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement, which featured Iranians calling for regime overthrow, burning hijabs, attacking “reformists” as part of the same rotten system as the “hardliners,” and chanting “Our enemy is here, they lie to us when they say it’s America.”
US-Iran prisoner swap said to be part of larger deal that addresses nuclear program
Israeli officials said a prisoner exchange deal announced Thursday between the US and Iran is part of a larger set of understandings between Tehran and Washington, who have been working toward an informal arrangement that would limit the Iranian nuclear program.

Two senior Israeli defense officials told The New York Times the prisoner deal stems from agreements worked out between the US and Iran during indirect talks in Oman.

The prisoner agreement could also facilitate further diplomacy between the two countries, as the Biden administration looks to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, the report said.

If the prisoner deal goes through, it would remove a sticking point between Washington and Tehran. Relations have also flared between the two countries due to Iran’s support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its threats to commercial maritime traffic in the Persian Gulf, among other issues.

Iran and the US appear to be adhering to the informal agreements worked out in Oman, which include Iran limiting further development of its nuclear program and preventing its proxies in Iraq and Syria from attacking US forces.

A US military official told the New York Times that Iran-backed militias in Syria and Iraq have scaled back activity against US troops, and an Israeli official said Russia is seeking more military help from Iran, despite the hundreds of attack drones Iran has sent to support Moscow’s war effort.

In the prisoner exchange deal, Iran transferred five Iranian Americans from prison to house arrest, in a step toward releasing the detainees, in exchange for $6 billion to $7 billion in Iranian funds that were frozen by sanctions and held in South Korea.

Iran’s UN mission said the money would be transferred to Qatar before being sent on to Iran if the agreement goes through. The final transfer of the money, and the ultimate release of the detainees, are expected in the next month or so due to the complicated nature of the financial transactions, Iranian officials told The Associated Press.
A look at the known Americans due to be freed by Iran under swap agreement with US
Iran has transferred five Iranian-Americans from prison to house arrest, part of a possible deal over billions of dollars of Iranian assets frozen in South Korea.

Three of the five prisoners have been previously identified while two others have not been named publicly. Those identified include:

Siamak Namazi
Siamak Namazi, an energy executive, was arrested in 2015. He had been an advocate of closer ties between Iran and the West.

Iran sentenced both Namazi and his father, Baquer Namazi, to 10 years in the country’s notorious Evin Prison on what the US and UN say are trumped-up spying charges.

Baquer was placed under house arrest for medical reasons in 2018 but prevented from leaving Iran despite his family’s pleas that he travel to receive emergency heart surgery after suffering multiple hospitalizations. He ultimately left Iran in October 2022.

Siamak is the longest-held Iranian-American held in Tehran. He appealed to US President Joe Biden in an essay in The New York Times in June 2022 as American and Iranian nuclear negotiators met for indirect talks in Doha, Qatar, demanding he intervene to “end this nightmare.”

Emad Sharghi
The murky espionage charges against Iranian-American businessman Emad Sharghi came to light in early 2021, when an Iranian court announced that the venture capitalist had been sentenced in absentia to 10 years in prison.

His family says Iran had cleared him of spying charges in December 2019 after jailing and interrogating him for months. Iran says security forces then caught Sharghi on the country’s northwestern border and re-arrested him as he tried to flee Iran while free on bail.

Morad Tabhaz
Morad Tahbaz, a British-American conservationist of Iranian descent, was meant to be released from prison on furlough as part of Iran’s deal with the UK to resolve a long-running debt dispute in March 2022.

That agreement freed two high-profile detainees, charity worker Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe and retired civil engineer Anoosheh Ashoori, who flew home to London. But Tahbaz remained stuck in Iran. Reports soon emerged that he was sent back to prison despite the furlough promise.

Tahbaz was caught in a dragnet targeting environmental activists while visiting Iran in January 2018 and sentenced to 10 years in prison.




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