Monday, July 31, 2023

07/31 Links Pt1: Jpost: Israel-Saudi normalization may be well worth the price; Palestinian 'Unity' To Destroy Israel; Indian police thwart attack on Mumbai Chabad house

From Ian:

JPost Editorial: Israel-Saudi normalization may be well worth the price
According to Times columnist Thomas Friedman, who is considered close to Biden, among the elements involved in a Saudi-Israeli deal are an official Israeli promise not to annex the West Bank; Israeli commitments not to establish any more settlements, expand the boundaries of existing ones, or legalize illegal outposts; and the transfer of some Palestinian-populated territory in Area C of the West Bank to Palestinian Authority control.

According to Friedman, Riyadh is seeking a NATO-like mutual security treaty that would obligate the US to come to its defense if the kingdom is attacked; a civilian nuclear program monitored and backed by the US; and the ability to purchase more advanced weaponry from Washington such as missile defense systems that could be used by the Saudis to counter Iran’s missile arsenal.

In exchange, the US wants the Saudis to offer a large aid package to Palestinian institutions in the West Bank, significantly roll back their growing relationship with China, and help bring an end to the civil war in Yemen, according to Friedman, who stressed that such a deal could take months to negotiate and is still “a long shot, at best.”

On the domestic Israeli front, Friedman speculated that Netanyahu could be forced to abandon the far-right members in his cabinet who would oppose these terms and instead align himself with centrist political forces in the opposition.

Netanyahu, for his part, has come out strongly in favor of normalization with Saudi Arabia, calling it one of the top priorities of his government. In an interview with Sky News in early June, for example, Netanyahu called a Saudi-Israeli deal “a quantum leap forward” that would change history.

Describing Saudi Arabia as the most influential country both in the Arab and Muslim worlds, Netanyahu said, “It would fashion, I think, the possibility of ending the Arab-Israeli conflict. And I think that would also help us solve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.”

Pursuing a deal with Saudi Arabia would allow the prime minister to focus on his stated policy agenda and his pledge to expand the Abraham Accords, rather than being bogged down by the debate over his government’s contentious judicial reform.

While Israel’s decision makers would need to seriously weigh the implications of any potential concessions, if normalization with Saudi Arabia means putting the controversial judicial reform on the back burner due to political and diplomatic constraints, that may be a price well worth paying.
Can Netanyahu and Biden buy a ticket to ride on an Israeli-Saudi peace line?
Biden has little choice here if he is legacy shopping in the Middle East. Former US president Donald Trump touted his ability to make the “Deal of the Century” by finalizing a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians, only to leave office having failed to do so.

The Biden administration has mostly shelved his peace map, the international community never adopted it, and the Palestinians outright rejected it.

Time, however, has clarified the sustaining power of Trump’s footprint in the peace process through the Abraham Accords, which he brokered. The agreement of four Arab countries to normalize ties with Israel, despite the absence of Israeli-Palestinian peace, breathed life into Netanyahu’s long-held belief that Israel must first forge a relationship with Arab states before finalizing an arrangement with the Palestinians.

Now, it’s the only game in town. If Biden wants a win in the Middle East prior to the 2024 elections, he has to purchase a ticket on the train whose tracks lead to Riyadh, assuming he has congressional backing.

The possibility of a win here, particularly as Iran and China seek to strengthen their ties with Saudi Arabia, far outweighs any concerns about Israeli democracy, particularly when Saudi Arabia falls far behind the Jewish state on that score. It would also give Biden’s re-election campaign a boost, though his tenure in power is not necessarily dependent on it.

Netanyahu, on the other hand, can’t afford to walk away from a Saudi deal, which would for him be one of his crowning achievements and one which he has long sought.

Depending on the demands of such an agreement, however, he also might not be able to finalize the deal. This is particularly true if Netanyahu is asked to meet some of the gestures to the Palestinians laid out in Friedman’s article, such as promising never to apply sovereignty to West Bank settlements.

He can agree to an additional delay, but he would lose his coalition were he to make such a pledge.

The trick here will be to find a gesture to the Palestinians that Netanyahu can meet while keeping his coalition intact, given its many members who dismiss the idea of Palestinian statehood and want to annex all of Area C of the West Bank.

The possibility of a deal, therefore, appears so slim that Channel 11 on Sunday night floated the idea of a two-phased Israeli-Saudi process, in which the two countries would have low-level diplomatic ties without full-fledged normalization.

Or Netanyahu could switch gears. This is particularly true now that he has secured passage of legislation that narrows the court’s ability to tackle governmental corruption by eliminating the reasonableness clause.

Netanyahu could, Friedman speculated, use the possibility of a Saudi deal to swap out the more extreme elements of his coalition with more moderate ones.

Moderate opposition politicians opposed to joining Netanyahu might sing a different tune once an agreement is actually on the table.

It is nice to speculate about how a Saudi peace deal might also put a monkey wrench in Israel’s judicial reform process. But if Netanyahu is lucky, he won’t have to buy a ticket on this train. Washington will purchase one for him, and all he’ll have to do is go along for the ride.
Saudi peace raises pressure for Israeli concessions to Palestinians
As the US intensifies its efforts to bring about peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia, pressure for Jerusalem to make concessions to the Palestinians has also grown in recent days.

Israeli-Saudi normalization has long been conditional on some kind of tangible progress on the Israeli-Palestinian front. As The Jerusalem Post has reported in recent months, Riyadh is looking for a greater concession than Jerusalem made in conjunction with the 2020 Abraham Accords, when Israel agreed to drop its plan to apply sovereignty to West Bank settlements and normalized relations with the United Arab Emirates.

The Saudis are looking for concrete steps toward Palestinian statehood. Merely a commitment not to annex settlements for the next four years would not suffice for the prominent Gulf state, Israel Hayom reported multiple diplomatic sources as saying on Monday.

The Biden administration has also been pushing Israel to do more for the Palestinians. This is in order to gain domestic support for its normalization push, an American diplomatic source said, confirming reporting on Kan.

The elements that the Saudis seek from the US in the framework of such a deal, such as weapons sales, a mutual defense treaty, a civilian nuclear program, and economic benefits, would be a tough sell to Democrats, who have spoken out on human rights issues in the kingdom, especially after the murder of US-based Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Washington is also pushing for the deal to be completed by the end of 2023, in order to avoid a prolonged fight in Congress about the benefits for the Saudis during an election year.


Security Experts See U.S.-Saudi Security Pact as Unlikely
U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, NSC Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk, and White House energy advisor Amos Hochstein traveled to Saudi Arabia to consult with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Thursday to discuss a U.S.-Saudi security pact and prospects for Israel-Saudi normalization. But several regional security experts say the U.S. is unlikely to extend the Saudi kingdom a treaty-type security guarantee.

The Middle East Institute's Firas Maksad said Thursday, "There's unrealistic expectations on both sides....This is not something that the Saudis can flip the switch and deliver on without some concrete steps from the Israeli side." Yet Israeli Prime Minister "Netanyahu risks his coalition if he is to attempt anything of significance towards the Palestinians, and the Palestinians themselves are in disarray....This new push for normalization, because...the U.S. administration would like to deliver before next year, is, I feel, divorced from the political reality on the Israeli/Palestinian side."

Moreover, a defense alliance with the Saudis is "unrealistic, given the political context here in the U.S., particularly on the Hill, where Saudi Arabia remains deeply unpopular. To be able to deliver a treaty...anything that would need to be ratified by Congress, is just completely divorced from reality," Maksad said.

David DesRoches, professor at the National Defense University, said a U.S. defense pact with Saudi Arabia "is a fantasy." The president "would not even submit a U.S.-Saudi mutual defense treaty to the Senate.... Bottom line: what's discussed can't be delivered.
U.S. pushing for Israel-Saudi normalization deal

Israel Plans $27 Billion Rail Expansion, Eyes Future Link to Saudi Arabia
Israel will build a 100 billion shekel ($27 billion) rail expansion that will connect its outlying areas to metropolitan Tel Aviv and, in the future, could provide overland links to Saudi Arabia, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday.

The announcement followed a trip by top U.S. officials to Saudi Arabia last week to advance a possible forging of formal relations between the Muslim powerhouse and Israel.

Opening the weekly Israeli cabinet meeting, Netanyahu appeared to sidestep the constitutional crisis that has roiled the country for seven months, denting its economy and shaking Western allies’ confidence in its democratic health.

Instead, he promoted infrastructure initiatives including the “One Israel Project”, which he described as designed to reduce travel time by train to the country’s business and government centres to two hours or less.

The plan is basically a revival of an idea promoted for years, though little progress has been made. The government in 2010 approved a similar multi-billion shekel initiative for a nationwide network that did not gain traction.
Seth Frantzman: Iran slams Israel for alleged strikes in Syria, possible Saudi normalization
Iran is closely watching the reports of potential moves for normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. In a long series of comments to the media by Nasser Kanani, a spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry, the regime revealed how closely it is monitoring these developments.

In addition, Iran is focused on Syria, it is threatening Israel regarding Syria, and it is potentially interested in heating up the Lebanese front.

Iran’s Fars News Agency reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian met his Syrian counterpart and slammed Israel’s actions in Syria.

“We strongly condemn the repeated attacks of the Zionist regime on the territory of Syria and the continuation of these attacks,” he said. “This regime is the main source of instability in the region.”

Amir-Abdollahian hinted that these alleged incidents would not go “unanswered” and that the region would not be “indifferent” to the actions of Israel.

Currently, Iran has been working to increase tensions between Hezbollah and Israel.

Tehran is clearly concerned about reports of US support for an Israel-Saudi Arabia deal. Iran recently normalized ties with Saudi Arabia, and it has been working to improve its diplomatic role in Iraq and the Gulf, as well as in Egypt.


Palestinian 'Unity' To Destroy Israel
Recently, the [Hamas] movement claimed responsibility for a number of terror attacks targeting Jewish soldiers and civilians in the West Bank. Hamas, in addition, continues to call on Palestinians to step up terror attacks with the declared intention of liberating all of "Palestine," from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea, and replacing Israel with an Iranian-backed terror state.

The Biden administration and the European Union did not condemn Abbas for meeting with the leader of a movement designated by the Americans, Europeans and other countries as a terrorist organization.

The Biden Administration and the Europeans are also likely to continue providing financial aid to the Palestinians without asking Abbas about his repeated attempts to forge an alliance with the same Hamas terrorists who murder Jews and openly call for the elimination of Israel. The Biden Administration and the Europeans apparently have no problem with Abbas preferring to meet with the leader of a terrorist group, Hamas, than with the prime minister of Israel.

Needless to say, the term "comprehensive resistance" is a euphemism for terrorism. As it has proven over the past three decades, Hamas outright rejects non-violent "resistance." The only "resistance" Hamas endorses is one that includes suicide bombings and the indiscriminate firing of rockets at Israeli towns and cities, as well as drive-by shootings and stabbings. The only "resistance" Hamas endorses is one that results in the murder of as many Jews as possible.

One of Abbas's close associates, Azzam al-Ahmed, recently said that Abbas is hoping to form a unity government with Hamas. Such a move would mean that the US and European Union, the largest funders of the Palestinians, would also end up funding an Islamist movement which they have already classified as a terrorist organization. Once Hamas joins a Palestinian Authority-led government, it too would benefit from American and European taxpayer funds.

At the very least, the Biden Administration and the European Union ought to call out Abbas for seeking to forge an alliance with one of the most deadly Palestinian terrorist movements, Hamas.
EU distances itself from German envoy’s Gaza stunt
The European Union has distanced itself from the actions of its outgoing envoy in Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip after he went paragliding over the Mediterranean Sea for a “Free Palestine,” possibly in violation of Israeli regulations, Dutch daily De Telegraaf reported last week.

In a July 17 Facebook post that announced German diplomat Sven Kühn von Burgsdorff’s flight off the coast of Gaza, the European mission in Jerusalem wrote that “for the first time in Gaza sky, the E.U. Representative paraglides on the beach for Gaza and Palestine.”

“You can fly here. You can kayak, you can horse ride, you can swim, you can surf; everything is possible in Gaza. Once you have a free Palestine, a free Gaza, you can do exactly the same thing,” Von Burgsdorff, who once served as a paratrooper in the German army, told the Palestinian Authority’s Wafa news agency following the event.

Von Burgsdorff has yet to clarify what he meant by a “Free Palestine.”

As JNS exclusively reported on July 19, a spokesman for Israel’s Foreign Ministry denounced the stunt as “another provocative action of the head of the E.U. technical assistance office.”


Terror disguised as charity: Report exposes Hamas' illegal global fundraising operation
Hamas operatives have been operating in Europe under the guise of journalists and charity workers to raise funds to support the terror organization, the Ad Kan group has revealed.

Some organizations run by these individuals have been outlawed in various countries around the world, including Israel and the United States, and in some cases, they were uncovered raising donations to carry out serious terror attacks, including suicide attacks.

Ad Kan, which was founded by IDF officers and graduates of intelligence units, works to uncover such illegal funding efforts, among other things.

Data collected by its undercover agents included email correspondence and photos of senior Hamas operatives in Europe, including the terror group's former leader Khaled Mashaal.

The Ad Kan investigation revealed the methods Hamas uses to work with anti-Israel and far Left organizations in Europe to undermine Israel.

According to Ad Kan CEO Gilad Ach, the group realized that while Israel was fighting Hamas militarily, it was not battling its illegal fundraising efforts abroad.

According to Ad Kan, for years, Hamas has been working with activists in the Netherlands, Britain, Denmark, and other countries carrying out activities that strengthen and support the terror group. The activists have founded many supposedly human rights organizations over the years, including ones that seem legitimate.

Last month, Ad Kan's undercover research led to the arrest of Amin Abu Rashid, the alleged senior Hamas official in the Netherlands, who raised millions in illegal funds for human rights organizations that were reportedly sent directly to the terror group.


Indian police thwart attack on Mumbai Chabad house
Indian intelligence services have thwarted a planned terrorist attack against Israelis at the Chabad house in Mumbai.

Two Pakistani suspects were arrested by police after they discovered a plot to carry out the attack in the coming days and were in possession of explosives, a drone and Google images of Nariman House, a five-story building in the Colaba area of South Mumbai.

“The Maharashtra Anti-Terrorism Squad (ATS) found some Google images from the accused of Chabad House located at Colaba. They informed us. Accordingly, we have beefed up the security at Chabad House, which already has very high security. A mock drill was also carried out on Thursday at the center and outside area,” an officer from the Colaba police station told the Hindustan Times.

The ATS took into custody Mohammad Imran Mohammad Yunus Khan, 23, and Mohammad Yunus Mohammad Yakub Saki, 24, the English-language daily reported on Sunday.

Channel 12 reported on Monday that the “Israeli security system” assisted Indian intelligence services in foiling the planned attack.

The Chabad house was attacked during the November 2008 terrorist rampage across India’s largest city.

Pakistani Islamist terrorists wreaked havoc in Mumbai, killing men, women and children in hotels, a train station and on the streets. One hundred seventy-five people died, including nine terrorists, and more than 300 were wounded, in 12 coordinated attacks.


Ethiopian special forces free captive Israeli
An Israeli citizen who was abducted in Ethiopia some three weeks ago has been freed and reunited with his children, Channel 12 News reported on Monday.

Ethiopian special forces were able to liberate Francis Adbabayi, 79, from Rishon Lezion, following a “pursuit and shootout” with his kidnappers near the country’s northwestern border.

The Foreign Ministry in Jerusalem initially believed that Adebabayi faked his own abduction in an effort to keep the ransom, with the Israel Police opening an investigation for suspected fraud.

Israeli authorities suspected fraud after coming to believe that Adebabayi had answered phone calls from Israeli numbers. However, “it soon turned out that the information in the hands of the Foreign Ministry was incorrect,” Channel 12 said on Monday.

The kidnappers had demanded 2.5 million Ethiopian birr, about 164,000 shekels ($45,000), for his release.

Adbabayi‘s relatives said earlier this month that his alleged abductors had sent them a recorded message, pictures and a short video clip of him bound at the hands and feet and guarded by an armed man.

“Help me. I’m in the middle of the jungle. It’s raining hard. Help me. … This trouble I wouldn’t wish upon my enemies,” Adbabayi said in the recording.


IDF reveals it thwarted special smuggling threat in Jordan Valley
The IDF thwarted a special smuggling threat last week intended to cross through the Jordan Valley near Ashdot Yaakov.

The security establishment is probing the evidence which was seized.

Security forces will continue to combat the phenomena of smuggling across borders.

Any other details regarding the threat are under gag order.


Death toll climbs to 6 as Palestinian factions continue to clash in Lebanon camp
Clashes continued for a third day in a Palestinian camp in Lebanon on Monday between members of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah group and Islamist factions there.

A Lebanese army spokesperson said the death toll from the fighting in Ein el-Hilweh camp had reached six, although some reports have given higher figures. Two soldiers stationed outside the camp were lightly wounded, Col. Fadi Abou Eid said.

Despite attempts by Lebanese parties and some of the Palestinian factions to broker a ceasefire, “the shooting and shelling have not stopped in the camp until this moment,” said Adnan Rifai, a member of the popular committee that serves as a governing body in the camp.

The Lebanese army mans a checkpoint outside and typically does not enter the camp, which is under the control of the Palestinian factions.

The clashes erupted on Sunday after Islamic militants shot and killed a Palestinian military general from the Fatah group, Abu Ashraf al Armoushi, and three escorts as they were walking through a parking lot, according to another Palestinian. The official spoke on condition of anonymity as he was not authorized to talk to the media.

On Saturday, an unknown gunman had tried to kill militant Mahmoud Khalil but instead fatally shot his companion.


JCPA: How to Boost Gaza’s Economy without Boosting Hamas: Give Gazans the Opportunity to Secure Jobs, Water, Electricity
An Economic Plan for Gaza
A plan to do so can be built on two working assumptions. The first is that most ordinary Gazans want to escape poverty more than they want their rulers to fire rockets at Israel. The second is that if they had a way to alleviate their poverty by circumventing Hamas, they might have something to lose by letting Hamas do as it wishes. In such a situation, the people of Gaza would force the terrorist group to stop holding them hostage.

Proposals for economic development in Gaza—including new industry, a power station, and a water-desalination plant—have focused on the Strip itself and would thus increase the power of the people who have driven it to the brink of destruction. Hence, no such investments are, in fact, made. Meanwhile, foreign aid only ends up lining the pockets of the Hamas leadership, while ordinary Gazans, who have nothing to lose, continue to tolerate their own victimhood. Once Gazans have the opportunity to better their lives, they will not want to give it up. That may be wishful thinking, but it is not ungrounded in reality. Hizballah, unlike Hamas, does not launch rockets at Israel every few years, even though it can inflict far more damage, for one reason: the Lebanese people around them have too much to lose.

What is necessary, then, is to identify engines of economic growth that are out of Hamas’ reach but within the grasp of ordinary Gazans. Practically, this means putting these growth engines on the periphery of the Strip and thus just outside the terrorists’ control—encircling Gaza with economic opportunity.

To the east of the Strip, on sovereign Israeli territory, three industrial zones could be built adjacent to the border. One will be to the south, near the Kerem Shalom junction, in an area under the municipal jurisdiction of the Eshkol regional council. The second, also in Eshkol, will be placed near the Kissufim junction, and the third, in the regional council of Sha’ar Hanegev, near Naḥal Oz. Each one of these sites provides between 1,700 to 2,000 dunams (420-495 acres) of agricultural land that can easily be converted into industrial parks, creating approximately 25,000 new jobs.

Adjacent to the Kissufim industrial zone, opposite Gaza City, a waste-recycling plant can be built similar to Israel’s state-of-the-art plant in the country’s center. That facility converts refuse into fuel and processes 1,500 tons of waste per day, half of all the waste produced by greater Tel Aviv, which in turn contains almost half of Israel’s entire population. A plant with a similar capacity can cover nearly all of Gaza’s waste-treatment needs, as the Strip as a whole produces less than 2,000 tons per day. At such an installation, the recycling process separates hard and soft waste through the use of high-powered magnets and infrared sensors while producing fertilizer for agricultural needs and significant amounts of energy that can be used for making cement. The cement could be used to build modern apartment complexes and public spaces above ground rather than terror tunnels below it.

South of the Strip, Egypt should be encouraged to follow Israel’s example by building a similar industrial park near the Rafah border crossing. Understanding that it must counterbalance Iranian influence in the region, Egypt has been taking a more active role concerning Gaza lately. It has clamped down on the terror network operating from within its own territory and has tried to exert a restraining influence on Hamas. It should now directly assist the people of Gaza by creating employment opportunities that the terrorist group cannot sabotage. Once these four industrial parks are in place, the existing one near the Erez crossing at the northern tip of the Strip could be rebuilt and reopened, leaving the territory surrounded on three sides by engines of economic opportunity.
Thousands take to streets in Gaza in rare public display of discontent with Hamas
Several thousand people briefly took to the streets across the Gaza Strip on Sunday to protest chronic power outages and difficult living conditions, providing a rare public show of discontent with the Hamas terror group that rules the territory.

Hamas quickly dispersed the marches took place in Gaza City, the southern town of Khan Younis and other locations, chanting "what a shame" and in one place burning Hamas flags, before police moved in and broke up the protests.

Police destroyed mobile phones of people who were filming in Khan Younis, and witnesses said there were several arrests. Dozens of young supporters and opponents of Hamas briefly faced off, throwing stones at one another.

The demonstrations were organized by a grassroots online movement called "alvirus alsakher," or "the mocking virus." It was not immediately known who is behind the movement.

Hamas rules Gaza with an iron fist, barring most demonstrations and quickly stamping out public displays of dissent. The terror group militant seized control of Gaza in 2007 from the forces of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, prompting Israel and Egypt to impose a blockade on the territory. Israel says the closure is needed to prevent Hamas from building up its capabilities.

The closure has devastated Gaza's economy, sent unemployment skyrocketing and led to frequent power outages. During the current heat wave, people have been receiving four to six hours of power a day due to heavy demand.

"Where is the electricity and where is the gas?" the crowds shouted in Khan Younis. "What a shame. What a shame."


Iraqi Islamic Scholar Yasser Al-Tarbouli: Jews Control The West With Freemasonry, Global Crusaders
Iraqi Islamic scholar and researcher Yasser Al-Tarbouli said in a July 22, 2023 show on Al-Nujaba TV (Iraq) that the Jews control the West through Freemasonry and the global Crusaders. He said that the Jews have "blown the Holocaust out of proportion" and that anyone who doubts it is attacked. Al-Tarbouli asked: "Didn't Hitler have Jewish cabinet members? Didn't the Jews financially support Hitler's wars to take over Europe?"


When It Comes to Iran, the U.S. Must Learn the Right Lessons from Recent History
In the eyes of most Americans, the two wars of the 21st century—in Iraq and Afghanistan—were failures. As a result, both the current president and his two predecessors have sought to avoid repeating past mistakes when it comes to addressing the danger that Iran—which occasionally attacks American troops, frequently attacks American allies, and constantly works to undermine American interests—will acquire nuclear weapons. Michael Mandelbaum believes that Washington is repeating the mistake it made after World War I, when it withdrew from Europe to avoid being drawn into another conflict. He suggests a different approach:

The present policy rests on the conviction that confronting Iran with the threat of war would likely lead to war, and that such a war would follow the pattern of Afghanistan and Iraq, proving as costly to wage and as unsatisfactory in its outcome as those conflicts were. Neither proposition is necessarily correct.

Successfully deterring the acquisition of nuclear weapons by Iran is feasible, given the vast military superiority the United States enjoys over the Islamic Republic, provided that the Iranian authorities are convinced that the United States would in fact unleash its armed forces to stop them from getting the bomb. Various measures that the American government has thus far chosen not to take would enhance the credibility of such a threat: a more emphatic declared policy to that effect, military exercises that simulate an attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities, and actual but limited military reprisals for Iranian provocations such as the 2019 attack on [the Saudi oil refinery in] Abqaiq, to give a few examples.

Effective deterrence requires the willingness to go to war if necessary.




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