Tuesday, February 28, 2023

From Ian:

JPost Editorial: Israelis and Palestinians won't achieve peace through vigilante attacks
When is retaliation considered "too much"?
According to the IDF, the terrorist opened fire in broad daylight from close range at an Israeli-owned car driving past the Palestinian town of Huwara on Route 60, deep in the northern West Bank, killing brothers Hallel Yaniv, 21 and Yagel Yaniv, 19, residents of nearby Har Bracha.

They’re only the latest victims of terror who were murdered simply because they were Israeli. Before the impact of the atrocity could be fully comprehended, however, a large group of settlers converged on Huwara and, in what can only be labeled as a pogrom, set alight dozens of vehicles and homes in the village.

The rampage lasted for hours until Israeli security forces restored order, but not before one death and a number of injuries were reported in addition to the massive damage in the village.

The onslaught was the worst case of “price tag” retaliation that most people could remember. Some responses, including that of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, attributed the harshness of the revenge attacks to the positions of the more extreme members of the government, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir.

Ben-Gvir was slow in condemning the settler attack. However his Otzma Yehudit Knesset colleague Zvika Fogel – a former IDF general – praised the Jewish attackers, saying, “Huwara is closed and burnt. That is what I want to see. Only this way can we obtain deterrence.”

Both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant called on Israelis not to take the law into their own hands, stressing that the riots harmed the operations of security forces who were hunting for the terrorist who carried out the attack.

But their reasoned voices are not enough. The government must act as one body in grave times like this. With ministers like Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich – who called on the Israeli delegation in Aqaba to return to Israel immediately after the attack – giving their quiet support for vigilante attacks or at best, turned a blind eye to them – Israel appears to be losing its sense of right and wrong.

When there should have been national unity in mourning the deaths of the Yaniv brothers on Sunday, extremists hijacked the day with their illegal and deadly acts. The government, as one voice, must unequivocally condemn their acts and take measures to ensure that such vigilantism does not take place.

If that can’t happen, Netanyahu should draw the necessary conclusions and fire the ministers who side with the extremists who are doing untold damage to this country and its moral fiber.
The real ones to blame for the rioting in Huwara
If we are honest — which most of the world is not when it comes to Israel and Jews — we need to recognize that Jewish rioting in Huwara is against the law.

But if we continue being honest, we need also to recognize that the blame for those riots must fall primarily on the past 50 years of Israeli governments who have failed to provide adequate security to the Jewish residents of Samaria and Judea. And, because there is little value in blaming the dead prime ministers and defense ministers who have been at fault, the focus of blame falls on the living who can rectify their failures, including but not limited to the longest-serving Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his Likud party that falls into lockstep behind him.

We cannot and could never have expected much from Labor, Meretz, Gantz, Lapid, Sa’ar, and the Bennett who sold out his voters. The focus and blame must fall squarely on Bibi.

Fair people cannot sit in judgment of Jews who are sitting ducks, getting shot down on Samarian and Judean roads like at a carnival, while the Likud governments issue statements that they will not stand for it anymore — “and this time we mean business . . . or else”

Gimme a break.

Arabs are not idiots. They know what’s what. The more evil they are, the better they gauge what they can get away with. They have watched prisoner exchanges of 1,150 Arab murderers for three deceased Israelis. They see and hear that they get paid by the illegitimate Abu Mazen entity for murdering Jews, or even just for trying. They hear that Arabs in Israeli prisons get good food, a free degree education, excellent television choices (internet?), free gym membership, and even get to have intercourse with Israeli women who practically have gotten pimped-out by security superiors.

Who in fairness can condemn Israeli Huwara rioters unless he has been in their shoes, driven the same road every day and night where Huwaran Arabs wait to shoot Jews dead? It is so easy to sit comfortably in Tel Aviv or the Knesset or Washington, D.C., or in other international cities and condemn Jewish rioters who are beyond exasperated and desperate — and for darned good reason.

If someone believes that Jews do not belong in Judea and Samaria in the first place, OK. That person has laid his cards on the table. Such a person will condemn Jews for acting — even legally — to defend themselves because, under their world view, Jews have no one to blame for the anti-Jewosh murders except themselves.
The IDF abandoned West Bank wall security - Israeli state comptroller
In addition, the report said that the IDF drew down its security forces in the West Bank by 70% at the time.

The report said, “the significance was total abandonment of the barrier and loss of control of the area without presenting a different solution to prevent illegal crossing into Israeli territory.”

This led to around 1.4 million Palestinians breakthroughs of the West Bank barrier in 2021 with some periods of time reaching 6,000 illegal Palestinian breakthroughs per day.

Moreover, the report said that the IDF presented the problem of losing sufficient volumes of IDF forces in the area as well as a spike in Palestinians breaking through the barrier to the Defense Ministry and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from 2017 and onward.

Despite this, the report said that Netanyahu and his cabinet “did not hold hearings regarding how to improve the effectiveness of the barrier and related defensive border obstacles” until the killing of 11 Israelis by Palestinians in March and April 2022.

At that point, then-prime minister Naftali Bennett and his cabinet shifted gears, though they also had not dealt with the issue since taking power in mid-2021.

The Defense Ministry and IDF responded stating that the comptroller report statistics are incorrect even for part of the 2017-2022 era that they discuss, saying that for most of the West Bank areas, the barrier was 82% effective even before 2022.

There is an unclear part of the ministry’s response on this issue where it says 82% effective “except in areas where it was decided operationally not to fix breakthroughs.”

The ministry does not explain on the record what these areas were or why the decision was taken.


Bassam Tawil: The Palestinians' New Terror Groups
If the Biden Administration were serious about de-escalating tensions and preventing further violence between Israelis and Palestinians, it could have achieved this goal by demanding that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas take action against the numerous armed gangs roaming Palestinian streets.

Instead of holding a summit in Jordan or any other country, the Biden Administration needs to make clear to Abbas that he cannot have it both ways. He cannot turn a blind eye to the terror groups operating under his nose, and at the same time condemn Israel for launching counter-terrorism operations to protect Jews and prevent further terrorist attacks.

The Biden Administration could at least have demanded that Abbas rein in the terror attacks against Jews instead of glorifying terrorists and rewarding them and their families financially as part of his "pay-for-slay" incentive to go murder Jews.

Instead of condemning terrorism, Abbas and senior Palestinian officials... regularly castigate Israel for launching pre-emptive operations to prevent terror attacks that harm its people.

The Biden administration seems not to understand that by failing to condemn the murder of innocent Israeli civilians, Abbas is signaling to his people that he has no problem with the terrorists so long as they target only Jews and not him.

"Except for the Palestinian Police and Israeli military forces, no other armed forces shall be established or operate in the West Bank and Gaza Strip." — Oslo Accords Interim Agreement, September 28, 1995.

[N]ot only do both the West Bank and Gaza Strip have dozens of militias and terror groups; worse, the Gaza Strip -- which was handed by Israel to the Palestinian Authority in 2005 -- is currently controlled by terror organizations such as the Iranian-backed Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

Abbas is saying that the Israelis have no right to defend themselves or go after those who are planning to kill Jews.
Hamas: Huwara riots are a 'declaration of war,' cross all red lines
The settler riots that swept Huwara on Sunday are a "declaration of war" and cross all red lines, warned Hamas political bureau official Suhai al-Hindi on Tuesday.

"The results of the Aqaba Summit are more killing, blood, and destruction for our Palestinian people, and what Nablus witnessed was a joint attack, as the occupation soldiers sponsor settlers to kill the Palestinian person and burn the Palestinian house and Palestinian entity," said Hindi to the Palestinian news outlet Al-Watan Voice.

"We, on our part as Palestinians, cannot in any way accept this equation, and we cannot raise the white flag or accept that the enemy harms the Palestinian people," added Hindi. "We are required to confront this conspiracy, killing and arson, with all our might, and the occupation knows only the language of force, not the language of dialogue, agreements and meetings."

Hindi additionally pointed to riots that have taken place in recent days along the Gaza border, saying "The message of the rebellious youth in the eastern Gaza Strip is very clear, that when the Palestinian people suffer, the settler here on the Gaza border must suffer."

The statement came as the Qatari envoy to the Gaza Strip, Mohammed al-Emadi, suddenly canceled on Tuesday morning a visit he had planned to Gaza for Tuesday evening.
Bipartisan Congressional Letter Calls for UN to Disband Commission of Inquiry, Fire Palestine Rapporteur
A bipartisan group of 18 Congressional lawmakers on Monday published a letter calling to disband the UN’s Commission of Inquiry into Israel and fire the UN’s special rapporteur for Palestine, Francesca Albanese.

Led by Reps. Brad Schneider (D-IL) and Ann Wagner (R-MO) and addressed to UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk, the letter cites comments Albanese has made in the past month, including calling Israel a “colonial” “apartheid regime” in explaining her refusal to condemn a Palestinian terrorist attack in which seven Israelis were murdered outside a Jerusalem synagogue.

“Ms. Albanese has repeatedly refused to condemn terrorist attacks against Israelis while continuing her condemnations of Israel,” the letter says. “For an official tasked with serving as an independent, neutral, and expert voice on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, her inexcusable silence against terrorism targeting Israelis and her outrageous and prejudicial remarks clearly reflect the irredeemable bias of her mandate.”

The letter follows a similar effort in January that called for Albanese’s ouster in response to her “outrageous antisemitic statements.”

Since beginning her six-year term in May 2022, Albanese has used her platform to declare that Palestinian rocket fire from Gaza is part of a “right to resist”, praised the Mayor of Barcelona who severed ties between the city and Israel over its alleged “apartheid” policies, and had previously written in 2014 that the United States was “subjugated by the Jewish lobby.”

The UN Commission of Inquiry’s Miloon Kothari made similar comments last year saying that the “Jewish lobby” controls social media and questioned Israel’s membership in the UN. Israel’s Foreign Ministry called Kothari’s apology for those remarks “pathetic and unconvincing.”


Despite alarming violence, Israeli-Palestinian talks are sign of optimism (Tom Gross on Turkish TV)

FDD: Palestinian Terrorist Cell Kills Israeli-American Citizen
Latest Developments
A Palestinian terrorist cell carried out a series of drive-by shootings today on a desert highway in the West Bank, killing an Israeli-American motorist before fleeing. The attack on Road 90 outside Jericho prompted a second manhunt by Israeli forces, which were still trying to capture a Palestinian terrorist who had killed two Israel civilians, Hillel Yaniv, 21, and Yagel Yaniv, 19, brothers from Har Bracha in the northern West Bank, on Sunday. The attack on the Yaniv brothers triggered a revenge attack by Israelis in the nearby Palestinian village of Huwara.

Expert Analysis
“The latest shooting is the second on Road 90 in as many months — a big worry for Israel, as this usually quiet artery connects Jerusalem to its Dead Sea and Jordan Valley communities. Though Israeli forces managed to kill five Hamas terrorists in Jericho on February 6, a deadly terrorist infrastructure clearly remains.” — Mark Dubowitz, FDD CEO

“The revenge attack should be a wake-up call for the Netanyahu government. The fight against terrorism must be the exclusive preserve of authorized security forces. Israeli officials were quick to condemn the vigilantism. They must follow through with prosecutions.” — Joe Truzman, Research Analyst at FDD’s Long War Journal

‘Pay-to-Slay’
The Palestinian terrorist’s family can now expect to receive from the Palestinian Authority (PA) “pay-to-slay” payments — monthly subsidies that effectively function as a terrorist welfare system. The PA rewards terrorists and their families for violence against Israelis based on a sliding scale relative to the brutality of the terror attack.
Israel arrests eight suspects in Samaria shooting attacks
The Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) and the IDF arrested eight terrorist operatives on Monday night suspected of a series of shooting attacks in Samaria.

The eight men carried out a series of attacks in recent weeks that did not result in casualties, the agency said. The weapons they allegedly used were also confiscated.

The shootings took place in areas assigned to the Israel Defense Forces’ Binyamin and Efraim Territorial Brigades. The first operates around Ramallah, the second near Tulkarm and Qalqilya.

The Shin Bet found during its investigation that Belal Barghouti and Ahmed Aqel, residents of the village of Beit Rima, northwest of Ramallah, were involved in shooting attacks against IDF soldiers in the nearby village of Nabi Saleh on Dec. 7 and Jan. 26.

It also emerged that they were involved in a shooting attack against an Israeli vehicle near the planned city of Rawabi on Feb. 3. Subscribe to The JNS Daily Syndicate by email and never miss our top stories

Also arrested were Ahmed Manasra and Alaa Manasra, residents of the Qalandiya refugee camp, who allegedly carried out a shooting attack on the night of Jan. 27 directed towards the Qalandiya checkpoint, the Shin Bet said.

Another suspect, Ahmed Abu Arida, a resident of the Beitunia refugee camp near Ramallah, is believed to have fired towards the Beitunia checkpoint, also on Jan. 27.

Muhammed Makhrouk and Jibril Zbeidi, residents of the Jalazone refugee camp, which is also near Ramallah, were found to have carried out a shooting attack on Dec. 18 towards the Beit El community.
IDF arrests 8 terror suspects in West Bank overnight
The IDF has arrested 8 terror suspects overnight in the West Bank Jonathan Regev has the latest from the Nevo Junction near Jericho where Israeli forces continue their manhunt for the terrorist who killed Israeli American Elan Ganeles yesterday


Manhunt continues for terrorist after killing of Israeli-American
Israeli forces are engaged in a manhunt near Jericho for the terrorist who shot and killed Israeli American Elan Ganeles yesterday


The US does nothing about another American murdered by Palestinians
Elan Ganeles of Connecticut was murdered by Palestinian Arab terrorists this week, thus becoming the 147th American citizen to be killed by Palestinians since 1968.

Yet not a single Palestinian Arab terrorist has ever been brought to the United States to stand trial for any of those crimes. Think about that: 147 dead Americans and not one prosecution.

The problem is not that we can’t find the suspects. The whereabouts of some of them are already known to the authorities. In fact, the Israeli government has publicly identified some of them as members of the Palestinian security forces.

One of the killers, Ahlam Tamimi, is living openly in Jordan and until recently was the host of her own radio show. Tamimi was one of the terrorists who carried out the August 2001 Sbarro Pizzeria bombing in Jerusalem, in which 15 people were killed—including 15-year-old Malki Roth and Mrs. Shoshana Greenbaum, both American citizens. In addition, 122 people were injured, among them four Americans.

The problem is not the extradition process. The U.S. has an extradition treaty with Jordan, signed in 1995. So, Tamimi could be handed over right now.

As for other suspects, the Palestinian Authority has one of the largest per capita security forces in the world, armed and trained by the U.S. If the P.A. wanted to find those suspects, it certainly has the manpower and resources to do so.

Although the U.S. does not have a formal extradition treaty with the P.A., the P.A. could still hand over the suspects if it wanted to. Many countries send fugitive criminals to the U.S. for prosecution outside of regular extradition channels because those channels are often time-consuming and expensive.
US expects Israel to ensure ‘full accountability’ for Huwara riot
The U.S. administration said on Monday that it expects Israel to prosecute those who participated in the Huwara riot following the murder of two Israeli siblings in the Palestinian town and to compensate those whose homes and property were damaged or destroyed.

“We expect the Israeli government to ensure full accountability and legal prosecution of those responsible for these attacks in addition to compensation for the loss of homes and property,” said State Department spokesperson Ned Price during a press briefing.

He called the Sunday night riot by hundreds of Israeli Jews in the Palestinian town of Huwara “completely unacceptable.”

Price also denounced the “horrific” terror attack that claimed the lives of two Israeli brothers as they drove through Huwara, as well as the terror shooting on Monday night that claimed the life of a 27-year-old Israeli-American Elan Ganeles.

“Accountability and justice should be pursued with equal rigor in all cases of extremist violence and equal resources dedicated to prevent such attacks and bring those responsible to justice,” Price said.


Tributes paid to 26-year-old killed in West Bank terror attack
Playing saxophone in the sukkah. Discussing Judaism over coffee. Hanging out with his brothers and friends in the basement on Shabbat.

These are a few of the memories that have emerged of Elan Ganeles, 26, the recent college graduate, raised in Connecticut, who was killed Monday when a gunman shot at him on a road near the Palestinian West Bank city of Jericho. Those who knew Ganeles remembered him as quiet and loyal, funny and down-to-earth.

“He was the kind of guy you could call, and you’d be sure he’d pick up and have a few minutes to talk if you needed something,” said Rabbi Yehuda Drizin of Chabad at Columbia University, who knew Ganeles as an undergraduate there. “For everyone that knew him, this is a kick in the gut. This really hurts.”

Ganeles grew up in West Hartford, Connecticut, where his family attended the local Orthodox Young Israel synagogue a block away from their home. As a teenager, Ganeles read Torah for the community. The synagogue has launched a fundraiser for his family and is bringing in grief counselors to help the community.

“Elan HY”D was a member of our [community] when we lived in Connecticut,” Shimshon Nadel, a rabbi in the Jerusalem neighborhood of Har Nof, wrote on Facebook, using a traditional Jewish acronym denoting when someone is murdered. “I remember him as a sweet boy with a great sense of humor. He played the saxophone and we would ‘jam’ together in the Shul’s Sukkah, during Hallel on Chanukah, and musical Havdalahs. Heartbreaking.”


Father of two boys killed in Jerusalem car-ramming improves in hospital
Avraham Paley, who lost two sons and was himself wounded in a car-ramming in the Ramot neighborhood of Jerusalem on Feb. 10, is showing signs of improvement after weeks of sedation.

Paley is being treated by a large team at Hadassah Medical Center in Ein Kerem. He has undergone several surgeries.

While awake and communicating, his condition is still listed as serious, said Dr. Vernon Van Heerden, who updated the press on Paley’s condition.

Two of Avraham’s sons, 6-year-old Yaakov Israel Paley and 8-year-old Asher Menachem Paley, were killed in the terrorist attack, along with 20-year-old Alter Shlomo Lederman. Three other persons were wounded.

The terrorist was fatally shot by police. He was identified as Hussein Karaka, 31, an Arab Israeli resident of the Issawiya neighborhood in northeastern Jerusalem.

“When we arrived at the scene, the sight was shocking. We saw a car near the bus stop after it hit pedestrians who were waiting,” said Magen David Adom paramedic Shraga Rosenthal.

“We saw six victims lying next to each other, among them two children about six years old who were unconscious with severe multi-system injuries. A man about 27 years old and a man about 30 years old were unconscious, and two more victims were fully conscious with injuries to their limbs. We gave them initial medical treatment and performed CPR on both children,” he added.


Deadly Jewish attack on Palestinians raises doubts over lowering of tensions
Settler leader Daniella Weiss, ex-Palestinian Authority minister Ashraf al-Ajrami, and Ben-Dror Yemini discuss the recent deadly Jewish violence against Arabs in Huwara, where two Jews were killed in an attack earlier.


The Israel Guys: BREAKING: Horrific Terror Attack in PALESTINIAN TOWN Leaves 2 Brothers Dead
Two Jewish brothers were shot and killed at point blank range in the Palestinian village of Huwarrah. While the Palestinian Arabs celebrated the murder by passing out sweets in the streets, the Jewish residents from the area arrived in Huwarrah to protest this brutal murder. When things got crazy in the town, we grabbed our cameras and headed over to report live on-the-ground in Huwarrah.

Watch today’s show to see first-hand footage of the incident!




Thousands of Israelis donate to Palestinian victims of settler riots
In less than 24 hours, Israelis gave more than $272,750 to help Palestinians whose homes and businesses were destroyed by dozens of rioting settlers in the northern West Bank town of Huwara on Sunday.

A 37-year-old Palestinian man was killed, 300 were wounded - four of them seriously - and dozens of buildings and vehicles were set on fire in the mass riot that followed the killing of two Israeli brothers in a terror shooting in the same town.

Labor party member Yaya Fink started an online crowd-funding campaign the morning following the attack.

Fink set a $27,275 initial goal for the project. But, by around 6 a.m. on Tuesday, some 7,283 people had contributed $291,015. Fink told The Times of Israel in a Monday interview: “It’s only a small deed, but as the Jewish proverb goes, ‘A little bit of light can dispel a lot of darkness.’”

“As a religious Jew myself… I felt that I could not be silent under such circumstances,” Fink said. “They’re creating a warped new Judaism and bearing the name of the true one in vain. I came to the conclusion that I needed to raise a different Jewish, Zionist, Israeli voice.”
Palestinian Mother instructs her son how to become a Martyr
Official PA TV News, on terrorist Muntasir Al-Shawa, who participated in violent riots in which terrorists shot at Israeli forces

Mother of 16-year-old Muntasir Al-Shawa: “The day before [my son’s] injury [from which he died], he told me: ‘I want to go to the Balata refugee camp [near Joseph's Tomb], and I'll come back to you as a Martyr.’ I laughed at him and told him: ‘Do you think being a Martyr is something trivial? Go bathe, pray, bow down to Allah, and then there might be a chance that Allah will agree to accept you [as a Martyr].’ The following night he came back to me as a Martyr. Praise Allah.”

[Official PA TV News, Feb. 21, 2023]


Muntasir Al-Shawa – 16-year-old Palestinian terrorist who participated in violence in which terrorists shot at Israeli forces who were guarding Jews visiting Joseph’s Tomb in Nablus on Feb. 8, 2023. The forces returned fire, wounding Al-Shawa who died of his wounds on Feb. 20, 2023.




Seth Frantzman: Arrest of Hezbollah financier 'most senior catch' since 2017
The arrest of Mohammad Ibrahim Bazzi in Romania last week is an important step against Hezbollah. The US had wanted Bazzi since at least 2018, and his arrest in Bucharest is viewed as a success. Much remains to be done on the case, as the US will need to extradite the alleged financier of Lebanese and Belgian citizenship.

Tony Badran, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies said that “Bazzi is the most senior catch in the top tier of Hezbollah’s BAC since the 2017 arrest and extradition of Kassem Tajeddine. Bazzi is a close associate of the heads of the BAC, namely Abdallah Safieddine and Adham Tabaja, with whom he coordinated his activities.” BAC stands for “Business Affairs Component,” Hezbollah’s organizational structure that runs its global network of businesses and enterprises, Badran noted in an email.

Of particular interest is the financier’s role in West Africa, particularly The Republic of the Gambia, a small country of 2.6 million people bordered by Senegal. “He was the most significant minority shareholder in Prime Bank in The Gambia, which allegedly was a critical money-laundering instrument for Hezbollah in West Africa. Prime Bank was a subsidiary of the Lebanese-Canadian Bank, the infamous money-laundering machine in Lebanon,” Badran noted. Numerous articles in the media focusing on Africa and the Gambia have alleged massive corruption linked to the West African country.

That bank was highlighted over the years in various reports as being at the center of money laundering and a “hub of Hezbollah,” according to The New York Times. In a conversation with Matthew Levitt at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy in March 2022, the bank’s role was highlighted.

Danny Glaser, who served as Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes in the Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence at the US Treasury Department from 2011-2017, told Levitt that the “Lebanese Canadian bank was an important node within a broader global money laundering and money moving system that Hezbollah had established. Hezbollah would move money from all over the world. But in order to use that money effectively to advance their aims within the Middle East and within Lebanon and Syria, they needed to move that money back to Lebanon so that they can use it.”
Putin paying Palestinians in Lebanon refugee camps to fight in Ukraine
A Lebanese government security source has told The Media Line that Palestinians residing in Lebanon have signed up to join the ongoing conflict in Ukraine on behalf of Russia, having been offered a sum of 350 dollars by Russian entities. For more stories from The Media Line go to themedialine.org

The source added that the recruitment effort is being carried out by activists affiliated with the Palestinian embassy in Lebanon.

Most of those enlisting were born after 1969, as those born after this point onwards do not have proper registration with the Lebanese authorities, making it easier to travel for the purpose of participating in the conflict as mercenaries.

As a result, the Lebanese government lacks the ability to monitor or track the movements of these Palestinian recruits for Russia.

The majority of the Palestinians being deployed to the frontlines in Ukraine hail from Ain al-Hilweh, the largest Palestine refugee camp in Lebanon, just south of the port city of Sidon.

The recruits are reportedly members of the Fatah political movement, which is led by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, as well as to other organizations such as the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.
Iran’s IRGC could train Iraq’s armed forces, threatening US, Israel
In comments that should raise eyebrows around the Middle East and the wider region, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Hossein Salami met with Iraq’s Defense Minister Thabet Mohammad Said Reda, offering support for Iraq’s armed forces.

It is not entirely clear what the IRGC might provide but it is already in the spotlight since the US views it as a terror organization and it has received more EU attention.

Iran's desire to get closer to Iraq’s security forces is part of Iran’s regional goal to expand the influence it already has in Iraq. The IRGC said that another part of its goal is to expel the US from the region and also to prevent any “normalization” between Iraq and “the Zionists.”

How Iran sees its role in Iraq
This means that Iran views its role in Iraq as a way to counter Israel’s ties in the Gulf and to counter the US. This could have potential negative ramifications for the American and European role in the Kurdistan region.

Iran has played a key role in Iraq for years. The IRGC was already linked to key Iraqi politicians at the Interior Ministry and also to unit commanders from the Popular Mobilization Units, or Hashd al-Shaabi.
Seth Frantzman: Uranium, missiles or weaponization: Where does Iran go from here?
If we think of the nuclear pyramid in this way, it becomes clear that one leg is now almost fully constructed – 90% enrichment. The missile program continues as well; Iran has numerous ballistic missiles and also satellite launch vehicles.

What about the actual bomb, the weapon? Iran Watch noted that “the analysis above assumes that Iran would use 16 kg. of highly enriched uranium metal (about 90% U-235) in the finished core of each nuclear weapon. The amount of 16 kg. is assumed to be sufficient for an implosion weapon. This was the amount called for in a design for such a device that has circulated on the nuclear black market, to which Iran has had access.”

Iran’s nuclear program is one of those interesting puzzles that the late former US secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld would have appreciated. There are known knowns, unknown knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns relating to the nuclear program.

We know that Iran has enriched up to around 84%. We know Tehran has long range missiles. But do we know how far it has gotten in terms of thinking about making an actual nuclear device to test – something similar to Fat Man or Little Boy the US made in 1945 or the type tested in China in the 1960s, or in Pakistan in the 1990s or in North Korea in 2017?

Iran must decide its next steps
There are many options and models for Iran to pursue. Some are more relevant and some are less relevant. This isn’t the 1940s; Iran can’t build long-range bomber aircraft for a nuclear weapon.

This means that Iran must decide what to do next. It appears preferable for Tehran to continue developing a delivery system, such as perfecting its missiles, because it can cover this with claims it is merely building long-range missiles. Trying to weaponize the uranium with an actual test bomb would be complex, take time and also lead to major tensions.

Iran must also consult with China and Russia about what comes next. It can’t afford to do something that will anger its friends in Beijing and Moscow, who don’t care if Tehran builds more missiles, but may care if it takes risks by trying to create some kind of test weapon.

Iran now begins to move down new tracks where it will have to make key decisions soon. These decisions will impact how it wants to continue to build up its nuclear pyramid – or if it even wants to continue to build at all.
IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Gen. Amir-Ali Hajizadeh Unveils New Hypersonic Missile

Iranian schoolgirl poisonings spark fear of campaign against women’s education
Over the past three months, hundreds of young girls attending different schools in Iran have become overpowered by what are believed to be noxious fumes wafting into their classrooms, with some ending up weakened on hospital beds.

Officials in Iran’s theocracy initially dismissed these incidents, but now describe them as intentional attacks involving some 30 schools identified in local media reports, with some speculating they could be aimed at trying to close schools for girls in this country of over 80 million people.

The reported attacks come at a sensitive time for Iran, which already has faced months of protests after the September death of Mahsa Amini following her arrest by the country’s morality police.

The authorities have not named suspects, but the attacks have raised fears that other girls could be poisoned apparently just for seeking an education — something that’s never been challenged before in the over 40 years since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Iran itself also has been calling on the Taliban in neighboring Afghanistan to have girls and women return to school.

The first cases emerged in late November in Qom, some 125 kilometers (80 miles) southwest of Iran’s capital, Tehran. There, in a heartland of Shiite theologians and pilgrims, students at the Noor Yazdanshahr Conservatory fell ill in November. They then fell ill again in December.

Other cases followed, with children complaining about headaches, heart palpitations, feeling lethargic, or otherwise unable to move. Some described smelling tangerines, chlorine, or cleaning agents.






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