The best insurance against a third intifada: 19% of Palestinian labor market employed by Israelis

The second quarter Palestinian labor statistics show that there are 903,000 Palestinians working in the West Bank and Gaza, 182,000 who work in Israel and 29,000 who work in the settlements.

This means that 18.9% of Palestinians are employed directly by Israelis. 

This is, by far, the highest percentage of Palestinians working for Israelis in at least ten years, and possibly since before Oslo.  I sampled some previous years: In 2021, the percentage was less than 16%; in 2016, 13%; in 2012, 10.4%.

This doesn't include Palestinians who are indirectly employed by Israel, for example, those who work for local computer consultants who get most of their work from Israelis.

If one out of every five Palestinians works for Israelis, that is a significant number of people who will not want a new intifada that would jeopardize their jobs.

And neither would any Palestinian leader, in the West Bank at least. Because the 19% only tells half the story. The average wage for those who work for Israelis is typically more than double that of local Palestinian workers. I estimate that over 35% of all wages to Palestinian workers comes from Israeli employers.

A third intifada would destroy the Palestinian economy and anger the 211,000 Palestinians who work - or hope to work - in Israel. 

This is why Israel is trying to expand work permits to Gaza. The same logic applies, and even Hamas would not be eager to upset a labor force that desperately wants to work.

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