Who Is Really Running Iran?
In late July, Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, was finally granted an audience with the country's elusive new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. According to Iran International, citing sources inside the president's office and others, Pezeshkian was driven to an undisclosed location, transferred into a commercial vehicle with tinted windows, and placed beside a man he was told was the supreme leader.The Best Outcome for Core U.S. Interests Is the Collapse of the Iranian Regime
The car was kept in darkness. No handshake was permitted. The encounter was reportedly brief and conducted entirely by voice. Pezeshkian allegedly left wondering whether he had met Mojtaba Khamenei at all.
Iran has a supreme leader whom almost nobody sees, a president who cannot reliably reach him, and a military establishment that increasingly makes decisions in his name. In Iran, where the leader's image is part of the machinery of authority, invisibility creates a vacuum.
The most important leader is Ahmad Vahidi, commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. He has served as defense minister, interior minister, and commander of the Quds Force, Iran's principal instrument of foreign covert action.
Argentina accuses Vahidi of involvement in planning the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, which killed 85 people. This allegation places Iran's most powerful military institution under a man associated with terrorism, proxies and covert action as ordinary instruments of statecraft.
Around Vahidi stands a small fraternity of veteran Guards commanders and intelligence officials whose careers stretch back to the revolution and the Iran-Iraq War. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, shapes strategy. Mohammad-Bagher Zolghadr connects the institutions. Hossein Taeb, the former chief of IRGC Intelligence who now heads the Basij paramilitary organization, watches the streets. Together, they are the operating system of the Islamic Republic.
Iran's security establishment captured the decisive institutions of the state. The Guards did not abolish the clerical state; they climbed inside it. They kept its constitution, rituals and religious vocabulary while concentrating practical power in the hands of men with military and intelligence backgrounds. They do not need Iran to win today. They need the West to lose patience tomorrow.
Twenty years of experience as an American diplomat has made me realize that no amount of diplomatic ingenuity can contain Iran. President Donald Trump is right to resort to an intensive economic pressure campaign, backed by the implicit threat of renewed kinetic action. The U.S. should keep pushing until it gets the best outcome for American interests, the region and the Iranian people: the shattering of the illegitimate regime in Tehran.How Tehran Survives U.S. Sanctions
I was sent to Kuwait for my first State Department assignment, arriving in 2007 at the peak of Iraq's bloody civil war. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps drove much of the violence, building death squads and militias and arming them with IEDs that killed and injured hundreds of U.S. service members.
My subsequent tour in Bahrain coincided with the onset of the Arab Spring protests in 2010. Popular grievances fueled the demonstrations, but Iran exploited the situation, pouring fuel on sectarian tensions. Gulf rulers seized on fears of Iranian interference to justify the Saudi-led intervention that put an end to the protests.
From 2011 to 2013, I coordinated State Department policy for Lebanon - a country hollowed out by decades of Iranian meddling and hostage to Tehran's shadow war against Israel. Billions of dollars of IRGC backing meant Hizbullah outgunned Lebanon's national army and possessed an arsenal of 60,000 rockets and missiles aimed at Israeli towns and cities. Iran in 2013 dispatched Hizbullah to shore up the Assad regime in Syria during the civil war, fueling a conflict that led to over half a million deaths.
The mullahs might not have orchestrated Hamas's Oct. 7, 2023, attacks, but IRGC know-how and hundreds of millions of dollars of funding over two decades enabled the rampage into Israel that killed more than 1,200 people, including 46 Americans.
The regime in Tehran bears overwhelming responsibility for the mayhem and misery in the Middle East since 1979, and its hold on power is a dire threat to regional stability. The current showdown is an inevitable result of the Iranian regime's efforts to dominate the region through bullying, blackmail and terror. The best outcome for the region - and for core U.S. interests - is the regime's collapse.
Iran has spent years setting up a complex system of oil sales and clandestine shadow banking that it hopes will sustain its economy and military long enough to outlast the latest U.S. economic assault.Iranian Cyber Sabotage Is Targeting U.S. Water Systems
The U.S. naval blockade of Iran's ports has reduced Iranian oil exports to near zero. But Tehran still has 80 million barrels of oil stored offshore in oil tankers, mainly in the waters off Malaysia.
Relying on a ship-to-ship transfer system, sanctioned tankers unload crude onto other tankers in international waters to mask the fuel's origin, then ship the cargo to China.
U.S. sanctions generally aim to cut off targets from the U.S. financial system. But sanctions become less effective if U.S. enemies avoid the U.S. financial system entirely.
Iran's transactions with China are increasingly settled in Chinese yuan, outside U.S. oversight. Iran also uses cryptocurrencies to avoid U.S. oversight.
Moreover, Tehran operates a network of shell companies in hubs including Hong Kong and Dubai that are controlled by Iranian exchange houses. These move Iranian oil proceeds into other currencies.
As Washington sanctions one front company, Tehran simply spins up another.
The Iranian regime recently executed a series of targeted digital intrusions against water infrastructure in the U.S. This aggressive campaign focused on the operational technology networks of municipal drinking water and wastewater treatment facilities across 7-12 states.
The primary mechanism of the attacks is the scanning of the public internet for exposed programmable logic controllers, which are specialized industrial mini-computers responsible for managing physical machinery, water flow, and chemical treatment cycles.
A pivotal potential vulnerability exposed during this campaign was the indirect threat to the chemical treatment and safety of the supply of drinking water. If water flow drops significantly at a particular location while automated chemical injectors continue to pump in the disinfectant chlorine at pre-set levels, the concentration of chlorine in that section of the facility can rapidly skyrocket to toxic, highly corrosive levels.
Irrespective of its actual impact, this sabotage event borders on the threshold of biochemical warfare insofar as it was a deliberate attempt to inflict a toxicant on an adversary population. The sabotage was designed to prove that a foreign adversary can silently compromise the safety of both U.S. industry structures and individual Americans' household tap water from thousands of miles away.




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