Iran "expert" @SinaToossi reveals his ignorance in Foreign Policy ~ Elder Of Ziyon

Thursday, July 03, 2025

Iran "expert" @SinaToossi reveals his ignorance in Foreign Policy

Sina Toossi, a senior nonresident fellow at the Center for International Policy, writes in Foreign Policy that Israel's war on Iran was a waste of time:

There is no question that Israel achieved notable tactical successes, inflicting serious damage on Iran’s military command and scientific infrastructure. But strategic objectives carry greater weight. Based on available evidence, Netanyahu’s core goals—undermining Iran’s deterrence and meaningfully rolling back the elements of its nuclear program that pose the greatest proliferation risk—remain unmet.
One of the most significant failures lies in the nuclear file. There is no confirmation that Iran’s nuclear breakout capacity has been meaningfully degraded. While Trump administration officials have insisted that the strikes set Iran’s program back by years, early U.S. and European intelligence assessments suggest otherwise. Satellite imagery taken prior to the strikes showed trucks potentially removing sensitive equipment from key sites, and Iran had already announced the construction of a new, secret, and hardened enrichment facility that may be untouched. More critically, Iran’s stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium and its advanced centrifuges—the core ingredients for developing a nuclear weapon—appear to remain intact. As many analysts warned before the war, verifying serious damage to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is impossible without on-the-ground inspections or a full-scale invasion. In the absence of either, Iran’s nuclear program is entering a far more opaque and unpredictable phase.

How can an "expert" be so stupid?

The goal was not to destroy Iran's nuclear program. It was to destroy Iran's nuclear weaponization program. While the existence of uranium remains a problem, and there may still be some centrifuges that can refine it (much slower than before since tens of thousands have been destroyed,) that is not all that is needed to build a bomb and to place it on a delivery platform.

This "expert" doesn't even know Israel's main goals in the war. No wonder he thinks they failed.

Israel showed that it had incredible intelligence about Iran's nuclear weaponization program, and it attacked it, plus the scientists whose know-how were critical for it. But Iran never admitted it has a weaponization program to begin with, so this analyst is trusting Iranian sources on what exactly was destroyed.

Worse, he shows his own antipathy towards Israel when he later mentions "indiscriminate Israeli strikes." He doesn't even know what the targets were. How can he know they were indiscriminate? The scientists were with their families, and unfortunately some of their loved ones died as well. That doesn't prove that Israel wasn't aiming at their targets. It is quite obvious that Israel's strikes were pinpoint when attacking Iranian military and scientific leaders. But they also dropped bombs indiscriminately just for fun?

He's an idiot.

Iran’s missile strikes also appeared deliberately calibrated. Following an Israeli drone strike targeting an Iranian oil refinery in the South Pars gas field, Iran responded by targeting a refinery in Haifa. After Israeli airstrikes targeted Iranian research centers suspected of involvement in nuclear activities, Iran retaliated by striking the Weizmann Institute of Science near Tel Aviv—a facility long suspected of playing a role in Israel’s own nuclear research. Through these reciprocal attacks, Iran aimed to signal its capacity for measured retaliation and to reinforce its deterrence posture.

Notice that he doesn't mention Iranian strikes on residential neighborhoods in Israel that have no military presence whatsoever. If they were calibrating their response, that means they targeted civilians.. But why mention that? If Israel's strikes were indiscriminate, according to Toossi's logic, then Iran's was deliberate - to murder Jews.

Oh, and the part of Weizmann that Iran attacked was a medical research building, not military or nuclear. But why mention that?

Because of that and other parts of his "analysis," like believing that Iranians all rallied behind their leaders (based entirely on Iranian propaganda), I think that the article was written more out of hate for Israel and an admiration of Iran than anything else.

Israel, from everything we can tell, is quite happy with what it accomplished: it destroyed Iran's anti-aircraft defenses, it demonstrated air and intelligence superiority, it caused Iranian leaders to distrust each other wondering how Israel knew everything they were doing, it destroyed a great deal of Iran's ballistic missiles, firing platforms and manufacturing facilities for them, and - most importantly - it set the stage that if Iran does resume its weaponization program, Israel or the US will attack it again. The idea that Iran demonstrated its deterrence value to the US and Israel is fantasy.

Somehow these facts escaped this "expert." And the reason is not because he doesn't know they are true, but because he doesn't want anyone to believe that the Israel he seems to despise, won.