Jonathan Sacerdoti: The Middle East is once again in flux
Something else, however, is forming in its place. A new ideological alignment is emerging around Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood, grounded in political Islam and nationalist Islamist governance. It partially draws in Ahmed al-Sharaa’s Syria and finds resonance in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, with indirect reach into Pakistan. This alignment privileges ideological affinity over transactional cooperation. Syria sits uneasily between worlds, open to Turkish influence yet also exploring pragmatic arrangements, including economic coordination and even talks with Israel, under American auspices.Secret dossier reveals police ‘covered up’ threat to Maccabi players
Pragmatism, meanwhile, has contracted. Saudi Arabia no longer treats entry into the Abraham Accords as urgent. Public opinion, religious legitimacy and political identity impose costs on overt normalisation. As Iran weakens, Saudi dependence on Israel for security diminishes, reducing strategic pressure to formalise ties. Saudi policy blends interest with ideology and ambition. It does not mirror the Emirati model.
The result leaves the pragmatic alignment largely concentrated between Israel and the UAE, with others peripheral or inactive. Israel now faces two ideological fronts: the older Iranian-centred network, weakened but alive, and the newer Turkish-centred alignment gaining confidence and space. Washington positions itself between pragmatists and ideologues, cooperating selectively with Turkey and Saudi Arabia while hesitating to force the collapse of Iran’s system.
In this environment, Israel must operate with increasing autonomy. Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken openly of ending American military aid within a decade, arguing that Israel has ‘come of age’ and developed independent capacity. The statement reflects strategic reality. American leadership is less reliable. Withdrawal, not arbitration, defines its trajectory.
If Iran’s regime falls, the Turkish ideological bloc will expand. Pressure on Israel will intensify. Yet great opportunity will also appear. A post-regime Iran will require reconstruction, technology, water management, and institutional expertise. Israel could become a partner of consequence. Parallel to this, Israel is deepening ties with the UAE and even Somaliland, adding a non-Arab pragmatic partner and exploring new economic corridors.
The Middle East now contains both logics at once. No alliance yet dominates. Stability remains elusive. Power relationships shift without moral resolution. Conflict persists, mutating rather than vanishing. For Israel, adaptation replaces expectation. Threat and opportunity arrive together. There is no final settlement on the horizon, only a system in motion, shaped by interests where possible and ideology where restraint fails.
In response to these findings, Nick Timothy, the Conservative MP and Telegraph columnist, said: “The police fitted the intelligence to justify a predetermined decision to ban Israeli fans from Villa Park – all at the behest of Islamist thugs and agitators. And then they lied about it.Mosque that advised on Israeli fan ban also sat on panel that chose police chief
“While they pretended the threat was from Israelis to local Muslims, we know from released papers it was the other way round – with armed Islamists threatening visiting Israelis.
“These police logs are further damning evidence of the dishonesty of West Midlands Police.”
Lord Walney, the Government’s former adviser on political violence, said: “This fiasco started out looking like timidity from West Midlands Police in the face of vocal local Muslims, but this latest revelation suggests it has become a systematic cover-up.
“The more chief constable Guildford has tried to double down and deny the force’s initial cowardice, the worse the scandal has become. Like Nixon at Watergate and countless other wrongdoing, it is the cover-up that will tarnish his reputation until he does the decent thing and resigns.”
Lord Austin added: “This is a shocking revelation.” The former West Midlands MP said: “It shows beyond doubt that when West Midlands Police were telling the public and Parliament that Israeli fans had to be banned because they presented a threat to public safety, they knew that it was in fact local Islamist extremists who were threatening violence against the Israelis.
“But instead of arresting the people threatening racist violence, they capitulated to them and have staged an appalling cover-up and lied repeatedly ever since. Why is the Chief Constable still in his job? He must resign or be sacked.”
West Midlands Police declined to comment.
A mosque consulted by police before Israeli football fans were banned from a match in Britain was also represented on the panel that appointed the force’s chief constable, newly released documents show.
The Sunday Times reports that Kamran Hussain, then chief executive of Green Lane mosque in Birmingham, sat on the interview panel that selected Craig Guildford as chief constable of West Midlands Police in December 2022.
The force later consulted the same mosque before barring supporters of Maccabi Tel Aviv from attending a Europa League fixture against Aston Villa last autumn. The consultation was disclosed by Guildford in a letter to MPs on the Home Affairs Select Committee.
The decision to exclude Israeli fans and transparently flawed intelligence used to justify it has left Guildford’s position in doubt. Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, has said he should be dismissed.
Guildford’s future may be decided within days, when a report by Sir Andy Cooke, His Majesty’s Chief Inspector of Constabulary, is expected to be submitted to the home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, and laid before Parliament.
Freedom of information disclosures show that Guildford was appointed after appearing before a panel convened by Simon Foster, the Labour police and crime commissioner for the West Midlands, which included Hussain. The identities of other panel members have been withheld.
Nick Timothy, the Conservative MP for West Suffolk and an Aston Villa supporter, told the Sunday Times: “West Midlands Police relied on false intelligence to justify banning Israeli fans from Villa Park and discussed the decision with Green Lane mosque. The question now is who is really in charge. It clearly was not the police.”
The force has been accused of retrospectively creating intelligence to support the ban, and of failing to disclose warnings that Islamist protesters planned to target Israeli supporters if they were allowed into Birmingham.

























