Tuesday, August 20, 2024

  • Tuesday, August 20, 2024
  • Elder of Ziyon
We've discussed how Iran and Hezbollah have been beating the drums of war in response to the assassinations of Fuad Shukr and Ismail Haniyeh but how they have been very reluctant to actually attack Israel out of fear that they would lose more than they might gain in "honor" and deterrence.

What about the Houthis?  

They are not as rational as Iran and Hezbollah, but they will not do anything major without Iran's go-ahead.

Israel is sending a message to the Houthis that they also would lose more than they gain from any escalation.

Israel's Intellitimes reports that Israel has decided on which areas Israel might target in Yemen. They include the Sanaa' airport, the Port of Ras Isa and the Port of Salif.





A security official quoted by Intellitimes said, "Those infrastructures can be used as targets for the continuation of the campaign against the Houthis, who are supported by Iran, and damage to them will damage the Houthis' rule and funding. Repairing the damage to these sites may take many months and even disable them permanently." The financial damage of attacking the targets is estimated at up to hundreds of millions of dollars.

The coalition led by the United States and Great Britain attacked those targets but in a pinpoint way that did not pose a risk to their continued  operations. On the other hand, Israel's attack on the Al-Hudaydah port in July caused massive damage and activity there decreased significantly.

This report appears to have been leaked specifically to warn Yemen that they would suffer more damage than they could possibly inflict on Israel, and this damage would directly affect their ability to operate. 

Moreover, this seems to be a message to Iran as well, whose own seaports are a critical lifeline to the country's economy. Israel could hit their ports as well, and the threat against the Houthis could be a warning to the Houthis' patrons in Tehran. 

When Israeli leaders threaten Iran directly, the response is invariably more threats from Iran that could - because of "honor" - end up becoming real. By leaking information about Yemen, Iran gets the message without falling into the "honor/shame" dynamic that could distort its own rational self-interest. 

This sort of thing does more for keeping things quiet than any amount of diplomacy or pressure from the West. 





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