US, Israel claim ceasefire talk progress. Hamas denies it. I'm tending to believe Hamas! ~ Elder Of Ziyon

Sunday, August 18, 2024

US, Israel claim ceasefire talk progress. Hamas denies it. I'm tending to believe Hamas!

Doha

Multiple Hamas officials on Saturday denied US and Israeli claims that a ceasefire-hostage deal was progressing - insisting that it was an "illusion" and that parties abide by the July 2 agreement presented by US President Joe Biden.

American officials, including Biden, stated that major gaps had been bridged in the ceasefire discussions spanning from Thursday to Friday which are anticipated to continue next week.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but this time I believe the terror group.

Right now, Iran and Hezbollah are looking for ways to avoid attacking Israel without losing face. Over the past week, they have made noises that as long as the Gaza ceasefire negotiations are still going on, they will hold off on their promised attacks.

So it is in everyone's interest to make the negotiations - which, keep in mind, did not include Hamas itself - to drag on for as long as possible, and to pretend there is progress.

There probably is progress on some peripheral sissues like timing on hostage releases and the numbers of prisoners that would be released. But those aren't the key points.

Hamas wants the IDF gone from Gaza and Israel wants Hamas to be essentially gone from any political or military presence in Gaza. Neither side will agree to the other's demands unless they have no choice. And Sinwar has already said that he'll sacrifice as many people as possible to save his skin.

It seems to me that the negotiations are all theatre - Israel to show that it is serious about getting the hostages back, Qatar and Egypt to use them to forestall a larger conflict, the US to avoid getting sucked into a war with Iran especially during election season. But unless Hamas actually surrenders, nothing else will happen.

At best, there may be a limited swap of the sort that happened in November, along with a pause in fighting, but it will not be a ceasefire. That might buy a few more weeks of no Iranian and Hezbollah attacks. The mediators probably hope that the desire for revenge will die down over time.

Or it might buy time for the US to pressure Israel to turn the pause into a more permanent ceasefire that leaves Hamas in power.

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