Mordechai Kedar: Don't let Saudis have any role on the Temple Mount, put Israel in charge
First, Jerusalem has been the capital city of Israel for more than 3,000 years, and the place of the Temple has been the heart of the Jewish people since the days of David and Solomon, 1,600 years before Islam came into the world.MEMRI: Emirati Analyst: Saudi-Israeli Normalization Will Proceed Slowly, To Preserve Saudi Arabia's Status In Arab And Islamic World
Any renunciation of full Jewish sovereignty over the site of the Temple is interpreted in the Muslim world as a Jewish renunciation of the very existence of the Jewish religion, something that undercuts the reason for the existence of the State of Israel. Would it occur to Muslims to give up full Muslim sovereignty over the Kaaba complex in Mecca?
Second, Israel made many mistakes regarding the Temple Mount. The first mistake was when Moshe Dayan handed over the administration of the site to the Jerusalem Wakf Islamic religious trust in 1967, with an understanding that they would not object to his illegal archaeological activities.
The second mistake was giving the Jordanian kingdom its status on the Temple Mount in 1994, on the assumption that the Jordanian king would keep the PLO and Hamas away from the compound.
Over the years, it became clear that not only did he, and then his son, not keep the Palestinian Authority away from the Temple Mount, the king reached official agreements that gave the PLO an official status. Israel did nothing to stop this and today the Palestinian Authority is also involved in what is happening on the Temple Mount and in Jerusalem.
Third, the Temple Mount is a focus of subversive anti-Israeli activity by Turkey. A Saudi presence could cause conflicts between Turkey and Saudi Arabia, and negatively affect Israel’s relations with Turkey. Israel must remove any Turkish influence from the mountain.
Fourth, the Temple Mount is the focus of attention for extremist organizations such as Hizb al-Tahrir (the Islamic Liberation Party), Hamas, and the northern and southern factions of the Islamic movement, among others. What they all have in common is their burning hatred for the Saudi royal family. Any clash between Saudi Arabia and these organizations could ignite the flames of conflict, and the blame would fall on Israel.
Fifth, it is possible that today there are understandings between the Israeli government and the Saudi crown prince, but there is no assurance that these understandings will survive the test of time. In the future, there may be changes in relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia that will lead to tensions between the two countries. A Saudi presence on the Temple Mount will only worsen the situation.
Sixth, if Saudi Arabia receives an official status on the Temple Mount, it could be blackmailed by Iran to allow Shi’ite activity in Jerusalem under its protection. Even if there is a clause in the agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel that prohibits such a thing, Israel will not violate its peace agreement with Saudi Arabia even if the Saudis are forced to violate this clause under Iranian pressure.
Lastly, Wahhabi Saudi Arabia may try to lower the centrality of Jerusalem in the contemporary Islamic discourse, since according to Islamic sources the original al-Aqsa Mosque, the one mentioned in the Quran (17:1), is located in Saudi Arabia near the village of Juarana, around 30 km. northeast of Mecca.
Any such attempt by the Saudis may arouse the wrath of all the parties mentioned above, and the blame for bringing them into the sensitive equation will be placed squarely on Israel.
In an article titled "Saudi Arabia and Israel – Normalization or No Normalization?," published July 20, 2023 on the Saudi website Elpah, Emirati political analyst Salem Al-Ketbi reviewed Saudi Arabia's considerations in advancing towards normalization with Israel, as he perceives them. Saudi Arabia, he wrote, which sees itself as a regional superpower, is interested in relations with Israel, since it realizes that such relations can benefit it and serve its interests. However, it is proceeding very cautiously in order to avoid any harm to its special religious standing in the Islamic world, and in order to keep countries and organizations that exploit the Palestinian cause from using the issue of normalization as fuel for incitement against Saudi Arabia.Gallant: Israel must widen Arab alliances, but maintain military superiority
The following are translated excerpts from Al-Ketbi's article:[1]
"Discussing the issue of official diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel, namely normalization, requires a deep understanding of Saudi Arabia's position and its overall strategic considerations in this context, which is very sensitive as far as it is concerned. Saudi Arabia's approach to Israel is not the same as that of its fellow Arab and Muslim countries. Saudi Arabia has special religious standing and prestige, since [Mecca and Medina, which are] the spiritual and religious center for some two billion Muslims [worldwide], are in its territory. It is vital to consider all the implications and consequences [of this special standing], especially since there are some who will use any issue to harm Saudi Arabia, and one of the sensitive issues [that can be used this way] is that of the relations with Israel and everything they entail: all the sentiments, the historical sediments, and the political exploitation of the issue by various elements, both countries and organizations, that use it to realize their interests and goals.
"The current Saudi leadership has a different strategic approach to the present and the future, and has an ambitious plan to catapult Saudi Arabia forward and give it the position it deserves on the world map in the 21st century. Therefore, [this leadership] does not readily limit the debate on any idea or proposal. This explains the significant shift that has occurred in the Saudi attitude towards Israel in the recent period. Suffice it to mention that Israeli planes have been given permission to fly through Saudi airspace… If we also consider the historic and famous statement made by Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman in 2022 – that Suadi Arabia does not regard Israel as an enemy[2] – we realize the magnitude of the change in Saudi Arabia's general strategic approach and position.
Saudi-Israeli normalization is a crucial factor in the considerations of the administration of [U.S.] President [Joe] Biden and in his bid to realign the elements in the Middle East. But Saudi Arabia has a different approach, based on its own interests as an active regional power. Accordingly, its outlook on normalization depends on [its ability] to ensure the realization of its geostrategic approach, which does not regard Saudi Arabia as part of any coalition or axis, and does not limit its options in forming partnerships with all the international powers active in the global arena – [an arena] that is in a process of [re]forming itself, based on the balance in the Ukraine war. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia's most pressing strategic need in the near future is to cement its security and stability and guarantee a regional environment conducive to promoting the goals of [its] Vision 2030 [plan]. The upshot of all this is that the ball is currently in the court of Washington, which apparently has not yet realized the magnitude of the change that has occurred in the rules of play vis-à-vis its Saudi ally… and that a new approach is needed in light of this change.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Wednesday met with top US diplomatic officials to encourage progress in widening the normalization wave with Sunni countries, like Saudi Arabia, but also emphasizing the need to maintain Israeli qualitative military superiority.
Gallant met with US National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa Brett McGurk, US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf, and US ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield.
The defense minister thanked McGurk for his continuous efforts to advance normalization with Arab countries in the region, which is a form of code for the Saudis, Washington, and Jerusalem's current top normalization target.
Maintaining Israel's qualitative military advantage usually refers to having more advanced aircraft, defensive systems, and advantages with any unconventional weapons, such as nuclear weapons (which Israel reportedly has), and which the Saudis and others are seeking to receive from the US in normalization negotiations.
Currently, only Israel has F-35 aircraft, but Riyadh also wants advanced aircraft. Previously, the US was due to sell F-35 aircraft to the UAE, though for reasons unrelated to Israel, that transaction has been indefinitely frozen.
Most notably, the Saudis have demanded a nuclear reactor and the ability to enrich uranium locally for solely civilian purposes.
While Riyadh has promised not to move beyond such civilian purposes, there are mixed views within the Jewish state about the Saudis receiving such a capability, which could conceivably later be converted to a military nuclear program.
Generally, the idea is that though Israel is small in territory and in its standing army, it can use higher quality weapons systems to deter its enemies from many kinds of broad attacks.