Monday, October 12, 2026

10/12 Links Pt1: Herzog calls out Nobel Peace Price winner Pillay; Teen killed, 24 injured by unexploded Hezbollah munition; Israel has two years left to act. After that, it will be too late

From Ian:

Amit Segal: Israel has two years left to act. After that, it will be too late
On Jan. 20, 2029, in the early evening, a new occupant will sit down in the Oval Office at the White House. In front of the cameras, following the tradition of the last decade, he’ll sign a long string of executive orders that will instantly and sharply alter the course of the great American aircraft carrier. If he’s a Democrat, and the odds of that now stand at 50% at least, among the stack of papers his aides hand him will likely be recognition of a Palestinian state, a ban on importing goods from the settlements, sanctions on a string of right-wing Israeli politicians and more still to come.

It’s remarkable how little connection there is between the shabby, substance-free Israeli election campaign that’s been running here these past months and the real issue of the next term: the head-on collision approaching between Israel and the world over the Palestinian question.

This is the diabolical legacy of the tormentor Yahya Sinwar, the senior Hamas leader who, in dying, bequeathed the return of this issue to the center of the international table at the exact moment Israel has run out of supporters for establishing a hostile Islamist terror state next to the central city of Kfar Saba, given the bitter experience of Kfar Aza.

The only one who has proposed anything along these lines is Avigdor Liberman. His plan to bring Jordanian forces into the territories of Judea and Samaria is, in my view, a bitter mistake and a terrible error, but at least he understands that Israel has to seize the initiative rather than keep sailing calmly toward the iceberg. Gadi Eisenkot swings back and forth between visiting Gush Etzion and reversing Bezalel Smotrich’s moves in the West Bank; the coalition’s answer is to stick with the current course—another dunam, another goat—in the hope that the world will get used to it.

“This isn’t a foregone conclusion,” a source who knows a thing or two about U.S.-Israel relations tells me. “Even a hostile Democratic administration won’t rush to drop the automatic veto at the Security Council or recognize a state if we’re on a stable, positive track.”

He, for instance, laments the scrapping of the annexation clause in Trump’s “Deal of the Century,” whose absence has let settlement efforts sprawl across the whole territory instead of gaining legitimacy for applying sovereignty.

But looking ahead, he says, the real story is Gaza. That’s where everything started, and that’s where everything will be decided. The Trump plan that ended the war is a significant achievement worth holding onto because it’s the first one that attempts to decouple the territory between the Jordan and the sea from the Oslo framework.

Judea and Samaria and Gaza are no longer linked; a different governing arrangement is replacing the Palestinian Authority; the 1967 lines are being swapped out for an Israeli presence in the Strip; and above all, the United Nations is being pushed aside in favor of the Board of Peace. A Gaza that is rehabilitated, demilitarized, run by neither the Palestinian Authority nor Hamas could be exactly what stops the world from trying the same mistake it made in Judea and Samaria in the 1990s, hoping for a different result this time.

The first clause in the Trump plan includes something Oslo and its offshoots never did: deradicalization. Israel will always have that stick to wave against any rollback, and the world can’t object to it.

The problem is that everything is stuck.

The Americans are frustrated to the point of alarm with how Israel is conducting itself in the Strip, but the truth is they couldn’t have picked a worse moment to launch their plan: at the start of an election year. Two months passed before all the hostages’ bodies were returned, then came “Operation Roaring Lion” in Iran, and by then, the campaign at home was already heating up.

A senior Israeli official drummed it into Kushner’s ears: If you want the plan to die immediately, the surest way is to push for it right now. The right will kill it, and Netanyahu will have no choice. And the opposition? the Americans asked. They’ll make sure it’s dead too, he told them. Netanyahu, after all, is being attacked these days almost entirely for being too dovish, not too hawkish.
Amit Segal: Hamas: The Victim of Genocide
It’s Monday, October 12, and it took a Holocaust scholar six days after October 7 to accuse Israel of genocide in print, and South Africa less than three months to take the charge to the International Court of Justice. The Gaza Ministry of Health beat both to the punch: its count began with the first Hamas gunman to fall in southern Israel.

So far, researcher Salo Aizenberg has identified by name 364 Hamas attackers killed on October 7. Eighty percent of them appear on the Health Ministry’s list, counted among the victims of the “genocide.”

This not-so-subtle sleight of hand has been there for anyone to see for years. Of the 692 Gazans the ministry lists as dying on October 7, 2023, 646, or 93 percent, were men of fighting age. Most of the children recorded that day were boys aged 14 to 17.

More recently, under the October 2025 ceasefire, Israel returned roughly 400 Palestinian bodies to Gaza. To help families identify them, the Health Ministry published photos of the bodies along with the names of those already identified. Of 396 bodies listed, 91 have been named.

All 91 are on the ministry’s casualty list. All are men between 18 and 60. Sixty-three of them, 69 percent, are listed as having died on October 7, 2023, the day they crossed into Israel. Only three are listed as dying at any point between mid-November 2023 and the ceasefire, nearly two years of war. Twelve are recorded as dying after the ceasefire began, which for bodies dead this long most likely means no one knew the date and logged the day they came home. At least 23 have already been claimed as “martyrs” by Hamas’ Qassam Brigades or Islamic Jihad’s al-Quds Brigades.

All of them, regardless, made it into the database as victims of a supposed genocide.

But that’s not all. Roughly a third of the 91 were on the list before their bodies came back, and 26 were still on the last list published before the ceasefire. A Gazan family can report a presumed death with no body and no location, and the ministry will count it. That may be understandable for grieving families. It is not how you build a casualty count anyone should cite as evidence of genocide.

Add this to the mounting blows against the genocide accusation, and the charge is faltering. On Friday, the Nobel Committee tried to shore it up by awarding its Peace Prize to Navi Pillay, the South African jurist whose U.N. commission accused Israel of genocide last year. The infinitesimal courage it took to condemn Israel from a U.N. commission does not earn her a place beside laureates like Nelson Mandela, Elie Wiesel and Yitzhak Rabin, though she would have a comfortable seat beside Yasser Arafat.

The committee honored her for her efforts to promote “peace and international law.” Yet few things have done less to advance peace and international law than the genocide libel. The accusation did nothing to hasten the end of the war or the suffering in Gaza. If anything, it prolonged both by generating American pressure that could not stop Israel, only delay it. As for international law, the genocide campaign degrades law’s most basic principle: impartiality. In the trial of international law, its blatant anti-Israel bias is Exhibit A.

If President Donald Trump would kindly return Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado’s medal and take Pillay’s instead, everything would be where it belongs.
“Israel has shifted from a concept of containment to a concept of decisive victory”
Three years after the October 7 disaster, the Israel Defense and Security Forum (IDSF) held its “From Disaster to Victory” security conference yesterday, at which seven fundamental insights concerning national security were presented.

Senior figures from the defense establishment, defense industries, local government, and the public sphere are participating in the conference, which centers on the changes in Israel’s security doctrine since October 7 and the challenges that will accompany Israel in the coming years. The various discussions addressed military and technological strength, Israel’s diplomatic standing, national resilience, internal security, the threat of delegitimization, and the battle for our home.

Participants in the conference included Prof. Yuval Steinitz, chairman of Rafael; India’s Ambassador to Israel, Jitender Pal Singh; Brig. Gen. (Res.) Erez Winner, chairman of IDSF; Col. (Res.) Dr. Ronen Itzik, the IDSF CEO; Lt. Col. (Res.) Itamar Eitam; Col. (Res.) Ilan Dickstein; Gabi Naaman, head of the Shlomi Local Council; entrepreneur and philanthropist Yossi Hollander; and Dov Oster, father of the late Capt. Eitan Oster.

Prof. Steinitz addressed Israel’s military and technological strength: “Within 36 hours, the Air Force achieved decisive air superiority over Iran, even though our closest partners in the world did not believe we would succeed in achieving this for many months. This achievement was made possible, among other things, thanks to Rafael’s unique munitions, some of which are still classified.”

*A profound shift in the concept*
India’s Ambassador to Israel, Jitender Pal Singh, paid tribute to the victims of the October 7 terrorist attack and expressed solidarity with the affected families.

He reiterated India’s steadfast commitment to combating terrorism.

IDSF chairman Brig. Gen. (Res.) Erez Winner said in his closing address at the conference: “We are currently in a state of victory. We will not be - we are winning today. Israel has shifted from a concept of containment to a concept of decisive victory, from an enemy firing and us responding to a situation in which we act to prevent it from building the threat in the first place. Today, when people discuss a strike in Tehran, they no longer ask how and why - they ask when. This is a profound shift in Israel’s security doctrine.”


Teen killed, 24 injured by unexploded Hezbollah munition on hike near Lebanon border
A teenager was killed and 24 school students and teachers were wounded, some of them seriously, in an explosion in northern Israel near the Lebanon border on Monday, where the group was hiking.

The group of students and teachers from the ORT Ma’alot school were hiking the Naftali Mountains Forest scenic route in the Ramim Ridge area when, at around 3:30 p.m., a piece of unexploded ordnance, believed by the Israel Defense Forces to be a cluster submunition from a Hezbollah rocket, detonated.

During the recent war, Hezbollah launched several Grad rockets containing dozens of BRB1-type submunitions at northern Israel. The rockets spread the submunitions over wide areas, and they often do not explode on impact.

Although a sign posted by the KKL-JNF Jewish National Fund warned hikers away from the area, Monday’s hike had been approved by authorities.

One of the schoolchildren is believed to have come across the unexploded submunition during the hike and put it in his backpack. Several minutes later, the submunition exploded, according to a preliminary probe by authorities.

Another account, delivered by the commander of the Israel Police’s Northern District, Dep. Comm. Meir Eliyahu, said that the ordnance exploded “in the hands” of one of the students.

A photo circulated online showed the cluster bomb before it exploded.

The resulting blast left one teenager, a 14-year-old boy, dead, and injured 24 teens and adults to varying degrees, the Magen David Adom ambulance service said.

First responders carried out intensive resuscitation attempts before the teen was pronounced dead at the scene of the blast.

MDA said that two boys, both around 14, were in serious condition with shrapnel wounds across their bodies, and 10 people — two adults and eight teenaged boys — were in moderate condition.

Another 12 students were assessed at the scene for light injuries, all of whom MDA said were in good condition.

The group was evacuated to three hospitals in northern Israel for treatment.

Ziv Medical Center in Safed said it received 14 of the injured hikers — one in serious condition, three in moderate condition, and 10 who were lightly hurt — while the Galilee Medical Center in Nahariya said it was treating the other seriously injured teen, as well as five of those moderately hurt.

Rambam Healthcare Center in Haifa received the final four members of the group, three teenagers and one adult, who were moderately and lightly hurt.

One of the responding medics, David Radko, recounted arriving at the scene of the blast and seeing the injured “scattered along the road.”

“Some were holding onto and trying to help their wounded friends,” he said in a statement to the press. “Further along the route, I saw those with more severe injuries.”

He commended the students for acting swiftly to help their injured peers and said some of them were able to follow his instructions to apply tourniquets to stem the flow of blood.


Netanyahu meets with injured children in hospital following Hezbollah ordnance explosion in North
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met on Monday with victims of the detonation of an unexploded Hezbollah cluster munition in northern Israel earlier that same day, according to the Prime Minister's Office (PMO).

The explosion, which killed a 14-year-old boy and injured 24 others, occured during a field trip for ORT Ma’alot Yeshiva High School students.

One of the victims being treated at Haifa's Rambam Health Care Campus, 14-year-old student Eitan Masouri, described his experience to the prime minister, who was joined at the hospital by Education Minister Yoav Kisch.

"I realized I was hurt; I saw that a friend was injured, and I tried to help him," said Masouri, who was injured by shrapnel in his neck.

Masouri told Netanyahu that one of his fellow students was handling the unexploded Hezbollah ordnance before it detonated.

"He unscrewed it, and then it exploded; the guys were thrown back," explained Masouri. "There was a moment of shock, about two seconds, and then I was told I was bleeding. I realized I was bleeding from my neck."

Masouri's account follows a preliminary investigation by the Israel Fire and Rescue Authority, which showed evidence that one of the students put the Hezbollah cluster munition into his bag, which later detonated.

Education Ministry: All group trips to area to be diverted over next two days
Also on Monday, the Education Ministry announced that group trips to the area along the Israel-Lebanon border on Tuesday and Wednesday would be diverted elsewhere.

"Groups currently traveling in these areas are instructed to leave their routes and move to alternative routes in coordination with the Education Ministry's travel center," the ministry stated. "In the rest of the country, trips will take place as usual."

The ministry added that it had "sharpened" safety guidelines "with an emphasis on caution against munitions throughout the country."


Herzog calls out Nobel Peace Price winner Pillay
The awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to South African judge Navanethem “Navi” Pillay is an "affront to any life-affirming, peace-loving people,” President Isaac Herzog announced during his own awarding of the Presidential Medal of Honor to Israel Bonds on Monday.

“Awarding the Nobel Peace Prize to one of the leading proponents of the genocide lie is a cynical decision which celebrates a shameful display of moral erosion," he added.

Herzog also marked the explosion of a Hezbollah bomb earlier in the day which had killed one teenager and injured several dozen others.

“We gather here today under the heavy shadow of a grave and heartbreaking tragedy unfolding in the north of our country," he began his statement at the award ceremony. "Before all else, I wish to offer our prayers for the swift and full recovery of all those who were injured, and to embrace them and their loved ones on behalf of the entire people of Israel.”

While awarding the Medal of Honor to Israel Bonds, Herzog praised the organization for its work in developing Israel's economy after the October 7 massacre, saying that it had raised $1 billion in the first month after October 7, and another $8.5 billion since.

"Over the past 75 years, more than $58 billion dollars’ worth of Israel bonds have been purchased around the world, solidifying Israel’s long-term standing in the global market, and demonstrating the trust investors have in Israel," he said. "And we have repaid that trust, never once defaulting, as I am certain we will continue to do.”
Navi Pillay Won the Nobel Peace Prize. Her Anti-Israel Record Reveals a Drive For Something Other Than Peace.
The Nobel Peace Prize is a prestigious award honoring those who have made outstanding contributions to world peace and human rights. But what happens when the person receiving it has a record of actions and statements that appear to undermine those very principles?

We need not look any further than this year’s recipient, Navanethem “Navi” Pillay, who was awarded the prestigious prize “for her efforts to promote peace and international law.”

Pillay’s record stands for itself. Not because of efforts to promote peace and international law, but rather the opposite.

Pillay’s most recent effort in “peace” was co-authoring the UN’s 72-page report in which it falsely accused Israel of genocide. The report, which mentioned Hamas for the first time on the eighth page, glosses over the massacre on October 7, 2023, stripping the ensuing war of any context – so much so that the report made no mention of the 251 hostages taken by Hamas and other terrorist organizations into the Gaza Strip that day.

Nor did the report make any mention of the terrorist infrastructure that Hamas deliberately embedded into civilian locations or Israel’s efforts to protect civilians. Most critically, the report failed to establish specific genocidal intent, a key element required to substantiate the accusation of the crime’s commission.

Related Reading: Rebutted: UN Inquiry Report Falsely Accuses Israel of “Genocide”
Pillay’s anti-Israel record goes back further than the September 2025 UN report. In 2020, she signed a petition demanding sanctions and an arms embargo against the Jewish state, and by June 2021, she urged President Joe Biden to act against Israel’s alleged “systemic oppression.”

Following these actions, Pillay was appointed Chair of the new commission of inquiry on Israel, clearly compromising her ability to remain impartial.

Pillay’s problematic past does not stay limited to her anti-Israel actions. As the news was released of Pillay’s award, Emma Reilly, a human rights lawyer who worked under Pillay, alleged that under Pillay’s leadership the UN human rights office handed dissidents’ names to China, ignoring her warnings of how doing so would put the dissidents and their families in danger. Similarly, a 2011 UN Watch report found that Pillay, who was then serving as UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, ignored most of the world’s human rights abusers, including 34 countries marked as “Not Free” by Freedom House.

Typically in the aftermath of receiving such a prestigious reward, world leaders and human rights organizations flock to congratulate the recipient. However, in Pillay’s case, that has meant receiving praise from Hamas, the IRGC, and Hezbollah.

Though this is not the first time the Nobel Committee has awarded someone with a problematic past – Yasser Arafat received the prize just six years before the start of the Second Intifada – Pillay’s selection raises a fundamental question about what the Nobel Peace Prize is meant to represent while staining the legacy of the award for previous recipients who were awarded for their peace-driven efforts.


US mission walks out of UN in protest, as it did in 2001 at anti-Israel Durban event, Waltz says
The United States walked out in protest of the 25th anniversary celebration of the 2001 anti-Israel Durban Conference at the United Nations, just as it did at the original event, according to Mike Waltz, U.S. ambassador to the global body.

The 2001 event, which was meant to discuss racism, ended up being the “basis for this anti-Western hate, anti-Americanism and antisemitism,” the American envoy stated. “It became a platform for global bureaucrats to press that hateful ideology.”

“We walked out of the conference in 2001, and we’ll continue to fight it right here,” he said.

The United Nations voted 95 to five, with 37 abstentions, to adopt a resolution calling for the Durban Declaration, from 2001, to be adopted in full.

Danny Danon, Israeli ambassador to the United Nations in New York, said during the debate that images of Adolf Hitler were shared during the conference, Zionism was equated with racism, and Jews were physically attacked.

“The Durban Conference was supposed to combat racism but instead became a platform for antisemitism and hatred of Israel,” the Israeli envoy said.

“Twenty-five years later, the United Nations continues to celebrate this disgrace and attempts to rewrite history,” Danon said. “Israel will not support a resolution that legitimizes antisemitism under the guise of fighting racism.”

“Durban’s legacy deserves no further recognition, no further celebration and no further legitimacy,” he said. “It is time to remove this stain from the United Nations once and for all.”


Indonesian Ethiopian Airlines pilot turned away from Israel
An Ethiopian Airlines flight to Israel was forced to turn around overnight between Sunday and Monday after one of its pilots was revealed to be Indonesian, N12 News reported on Monday.

The Islamic country of Indonesia currently has no diplomatic ties with Israel, making its nationals ineligible for flying to Israel due to the security risk.

N12 reported that the identity of the pilot had been made known to security forces, as well as airport personnel, who had ordered the plane to turn around while it was still in Ethiopia's airspace.

The pilot was then swapped with a different one, after which the plane took off again and successfully landed in Israel.

According to N12, the airline claimed not to have known that the pilot was not allowed to fly to Israel.

Hundreds of crew members from barred countries may have entered Israel


This occurrence came several weeks after a commercial flydubai flight from Dubai to Tel Aviv saw an attempted hijacking by an Omani pilot.

Last week, N12 reported that over 1,200 aviation crew members from countries without diplomatic relations with Israel, including Iran, might have entered the country, citing the Knesset's Intelligence Subcommittee of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee.

N12 cited sources present at the committee meeting on the subject, who said that the revelation came as a surprise to the Transportation Ministry representative.
Iran Guards say they struck vessel in Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards say they have struck a vessel that was attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that is crucial to global energy flows.

Iran has imposed a blockade on the strait since the United States and Israel launched strikes against the Islamic Republic in February, triggering the Middle East war.

The blockade has been met with a US counter-blockade of Iranian ports, and US forces routinely escort vessels crossing the strait.

Iran has since the start of the war frequently targeted vessels crossing Hormuz without its permission.

The Guards’ navy says in a statement published on the force’s news platform, Sepah News, that “a supertanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz and caught fire.”

The ship targeted today tried to sail through the area “by disabling its transponders” and “by ignoring warnings from the Guards’ Navy,” the statement says.

Ali Ozmaei, the Guards’ naval commander, warned this weekend that any vessel disabling its transponder to avoid detection while crossing the strait would be considered “hostile” and face a “severe” response.


Unprecedented Criticism of Hizbullah in Lebanon's Shiite Community
Growing criticism of Hizbullah is being heard within Lebanon's Shiite community. Social media accounts, community activists, and ordinary displaced civilians in southern Lebanon and Dahieh have voiced frustration over the fallout of the confrontation with Israel. Questions like "Where is Iran?" or "What was all this destruction for?" reflect deep anger over the heavy toll paid by the Shiite population.

Following the loss of key military installations such as the underground complex at Ali al-Taher and the decapitation of Hizbullah's leadership by Israel, Hizbullah has struggled to maintain its traditional framing of "victory through steadfastness." With its leadership disrupted, supply lines suppressed, and Iranian financial flows constrained, Hizbullah's capacity to compensate families for lost homes and livelihoods has been significantly compromised.

However, political analysts and polling data caution against assuming that Hizbullah's grip on the Lebanese Shiite community is collapsing. The Shiite community's support for Hizbullah has long been tied to its fear that without a strong-armed protector, the community would be marginalized or targeted by rival Lebanese sects. Even among Shiites critical of Hizbullah's strategic choices or ties to Iran, a vast majority remains opposed to the outright disarmament of the group.

The current environment reflects Hizbullah's loss of aura and narrative control, but whether it becomes a permanent political realignment depends on whether an organized Shiite alternative emerges and whether the Lebanese state can offer real security and economic alternatives to a displaced population.
IAI to unveil new tactical radar that seeks out low-flying drones at US's AUSA military expo
Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) announced on Sunday that it will unveil a new radar solution that can detect low-flying drones from its position suspended high above the ground.

The system, known as POINT@AIR, brings long-range radar detection and persistent surveillance to a compact, highly mobile aerostat platform. The unveiling was made at the Association of the United States Army (AUSA) Annual Meeting & Exposition in Washington, taking place this week.

The radar’s elevated position extends its line of sight beyond terrain and other ground-level obstructions, supporting earlier detection of low-altitude threats, while enabling forces to adapt surveillance coverage as mission requirements evolve.

In that sense, a heavy focus will be on anti-drone defense, an area where Hezbollah exposed IDF weaknesses during the 2026 conflict, leading to significant IDF losses.

The system will not replace MMR radar technology and other radars which are primarily focused on long-range detection, but will supplement them in certain specific areas where the threats, such as drones, are evolving.

Persistent operation, rapid relocation capabilities
Designed for persistent operation and rapid relocation, the system can operate without reliance on permanent infrastructure and can detect and track multiple aerial, maritime, and ground targets.

This is one of the new major issues, given that enemy threats have become more unpredictable regarding where and how they will attack from.

It supports multiple missions simultaneously, prioritizes targets according to operational requirements, and interfaces with command-and-control systems to contribute to an integrated operational picture, signaling the continued move toward greater integration of AI and the full network of sensors.


Lebanon vows probe after security forces seize truck packed with explosives
Lebanon will carry out a thorough investigation to track down the suspected members of the Iran-backed Hezbollah terror group believed to be linked to an explosives-laden truck intercepted at the Dahr al-Baidar checkpoint last week, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said on Monday.

Salam has described the incident as a “criminal operation” and has praised security forces for capturing the truck on the main highway linking Beirut with the eastern Bekaa Valley.

Lebanon’s Information Minister Paul Morcos said two people detained in the truck have been referred to judicial authorities and that security agencies will go after other people involved in the case.

The truck was carrying 780 kilograms (1,720 pounds) of explosives, including 250 kilograms (550 pounds) of TNT and 250 kilograms (550 pounds) of C4 plastic explosives, judicial officials told The Associated Press.

The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity in line with regulations, said the two people who were detained have said they were only told to take the material from the northeastern region of Baalbek to Beirut without being told what it would be used for. They were supposed to hand it over to a man south of Beirut whom they identified by his nom de guerre, Zulfiqar, the officials said.

Hezbollah has declined comment.

For years, Hezbollah has moved weapons freely in parts of Lebanon.

That changed in March, when the Lebanese government declared all military activities by the Iran-backed group “illegal.” That decision came hours after Hezbollah fired rockets into northern Israel, triggering a three-month war that killed nearly 4,000 people in Lebanon. The group fired the rockets two days after Israel and the United States launched a war on Iran, its main backer.

Morcos quoted Salam as saying he understood people’s concerns about the shipment, noting that C-4 explosives had been used in several “infamous political assassinations in Lebanon’s modern history.”


Call me Back Podcast: Is the U.S. Winning the Iran War? With Suzanne Maloney and Mark Dubowitz
The US seems to have won the Battle of Hormuz; what would it take to win the Iran War?
Seven months into the war, the US and Iran are locked in a high-stakes test of endurance, with the Strait of Hormuz, the global economy, and the future of the Middle East hanging in the balance. Dan Senor brings together two leading Iran experts, Mark Dubowitz and Suzanne Maloney, who sharply disagree on whether America is gaining the upper hand–or paying too steep of a strategic price. Their debate gets to the hardest question of all: Can the US win the war militarily and still lose strategically?

𝗜𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗲𝗽𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗱𝗲:
Two experts, two very different verdicts: Is Iran running out of options, or is Washington getting trapped in a war with no clear endgame?
The Strait of Hormuz was supposed to be Iran’s ultimate weapon. Has the US really taken that leverage away?
Why the Houthi threat could pull America deeper into a conflict it can’t easily contain
Can economic pressure bring down the Iranian regime—or are ordinary Iranians paying the price while the regime holds on?
Why have negotiations stalled, and is a nuclear deal still possible when the two sides fundamentally disagree on uranium enrichment?
With the nuclear program damaged but not eliminated, how much of a threat does Iran still pose?
Could another round of US or Israeli strikes be coming—and how might elections shape the timing?
If the regime survives but its military and nuclear capabilities are severely weakened, is that a victory—or a strategic failure?




Ask Haviv Anything: 153: Where was Netanyahu on 7/10? With Elliot Kaufman
On October 7 and in the months that followed, Israel’s leaders were fighting Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran -- and each other. Where was Netanyahu on October 7 and its aftermath? Did Washington’s push for de-escalation prolong the fighting? And why have American Jews struggled to mobilize against the rising antisemitism that followed October 7?

The Wall Street Journal’s Elliot Kaufman joins the podcast to answer these questions and discuss his new book, In the War Room: The Inside Story of Israel's Fight Against Hamas and the Iranian Axis, written with Jerusalem Post military analyst Yonah Jeremy Bob. The book explores the bitter rivalries, catastrophic failures and bold and successful decisions that have shaped the war and reshaped the Middle East.

Chapters
00:00 Introduction to the Inside Story of Israel's War Decision-Making
02:41 Why This Book Offers a Unique Inside Perspective
05:06 Understanding the Decision-Making Dilemmas in Israel
08:21 The Impact of Political Rivalries on War Efforts
11:16 The Delays and Chaos on October 7
16:34 Why Israel Failed to Foresee the Attack
22:17 Leadership Failures and the Response Chaos
26:56 US Policies and Their Effect on Israeli Strategy
33:28 American Misunderstandings and the Need for Escalation
43:55 The Future of US-Israel Relations and American Jewish Community


UK’s Burnham says Iran’s IRGC likely behind airbase incident
British Prime Minister Andy Burnham said on Monday that a suspected plot targeting the RAF Fairford airbase in Britain was “highly likely” to have been coordinated in Iran, and almost certainly directed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The RAF Fairford base in southwest England, which had been used by US bombers to carry out strikes on Iran, became the focal point for a major security response after five British men were arrested nearby in the early hours of September 27 on ​suspected terrorism and explosive offenses.

US officials have told Reuters that there had been a suspected plot involving Iran to launch a drone attack, and last week US President Donald Trump said a threat linked to Iran had prompted a decision to withdraw the bombers from the base.

“I can confirm our assessment that it is highly likely to have been coordinated in Iran, almost certainly directed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC),” Burnham told parliament.

Tehran has rejected any suggestion it was involved in the Fairford incident, saying it amounted to “unfounded and malicious ​speculations.”

Fairford plot details sketchy
Details around the suspected plot remain thin. The five detained men were later released without charge on ‌police ⁠bail “under stringent conditions,” and two other arrested men, including a British-Iranian national, have also been released.

Detectives have said gasoline but no viable explosive had been found in vans seized along with the five men. However, both police and Burnham have pointed toward the involvement of a foreign state.

“We will not tolerate these threats on our soil,” Burnham said. “We will crack down on Iran’s use of criminal networks, using our full range of powers to target them and their funding streams, and we will bring further sanctions to restrict the capacity of Iran and the IRGC to do us harm.”

Foreign ministries from almost 30 countries, including the UK, US, Canada, France, and Germany, issued a statement condemning “Iran’s use of violent attacks, including the acts of lethal plotting, arson, sabotage, cyberattacks, and other hybrid activities against us and our partners.”

“The UK has also concluded this event demonstrates the IRGC’s continued willingness to project hostile activity beyond its borders through covert networks and proxy actors,” the statement said.

The statement noted that the RAF Fairford plot comes after a “campaign of attacks across Europe targeting Jewish communities, Iranian journalists, and US interests.”

It stressed that any Iranian attempt to “threaten, silence, intimidate, harass, harm, or coerce people on our territories through proxies or any other means is unacceptable.”

Tehran, the foreign ministries said, “should be in no doubt that we are united and remain committed to safeguarding our sovereignty and strengthening our international coordination, bolstering our national resilience, protecting our communities, and ensuring that those responsible are held to account.”

The statement was also signed by Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden.





 




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2019 Nobel Peace Prize nominee

Elder of Ziyon - حـكـيـم صـهـيـون



This blog may be a labor of love for me, but it takes a lot of effort, time and money. For 20 years and 40,000 articles I have been providing accurate, original news that would have remained unnoticed. I've written hundreds of scoops and sometimes my reporting ends up making a real difference. I appreciate any donations you can give to keep this blog going.

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