An analysis of Hezbollah's weapons arsenal (Alma Center)

The Alma Research and Education Center, which keep a close eye on Israel's northern border, released a detailed reportreleased a detailed report on their best estimates of Hezbollah's rocket and weapons arsenal.

It is very concerning.

It should be noted that weaponry transfers to Hezbollah via the Iranian corridor take place continuously. Furthermore, the Iranians have transformed the Syrian CERS Center into a crucial anchor in the armaments corridor, with the goal of researching and manufacturing sophisticated, extremely precise weaponry for Hezbollah. To this, we add that Hezbollah has the potential to produce its own weapons on Lebanese soil. It is quite possible that Hezbollah (with Iranian help) is renewing and preserving its weapons. Even if an all-out war with Israel is declared, the corridor’s operations and weapon manufacture will continue.

If an all-out war breaks out with Israel, the quantity of weapons Hezbollah has will enable it to launch an average of about 3,000 launches (of all weapons) into Israeli territory every day, for at least the first 10 days. Assuming that such a war would continue for up to two months, Hezbollah will be able to continue to manage a very intense launching economy into Israeli territory, with an average of at least 1,000 launches a day. This does not include the number of launches and firing at IDF forces maneuvering on Lebanese soil.

Against IDF ground maneuvers, Hezbollah will use mainly mortar shells, anti-tank missiles, drones and even some UAVs. It may also use heavy-weight short-range rockets against the maneuvering forces.

It can be presumed that not all Hezbollah launches into Israeli territory in an all-out war will succeed or be effective: some will be thwarted by the IDF before launching, some will fall in Lebanese territory or open areas in Israel, some will be unexploded ordnance, and some will be intercepted by air defense systems. However, since this is a very large volume of launches, statistically, the number of daily launches, which will be effective, will be very large compared to what we have seen so far from the northern arena or the Gaza Strip.

For context of the ranges of their rockets/missiles, here are some rough distances from the Lebanon border to major Israeli cities:

Haifa 45 km

Netanya 100 km

Tel Aviv 125 km

Jerusalem 150 km

Ashkelon 175 km

Beersheva 215 km

Dimona 230 km

Eilat 400 km

Israel would also have to be concerned at attacks on the natural gas facilities in the Mediterranean. 

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