Amit Segal: Israel has two years left to act. After that, it will be too late
On Jan. 20, 2029, in the early evening, a new occupant will sit down in the Oval Office at the White House. In front of the cameras, following the tradition of the last decade, he’ll sign a long string of executive orders that will instantly and sharply alter the course of the great American aircraft carrier. If he’s a Democrat, and the odds of that now stand at 50% at least, among the stack of papers his aides hand him will likely be recognition of a Palestinian state, a ban on importing goods from the settlements, sanctions on a string of right-wing Israeli politicians and more still to come.Amit Segal: Hamas: The Victim of Genocide
It’s remarkable how little connection there is between the shabby, substance-free Israeli election campaign that’s been running here these past months and the real issue of the next term: the head-on collision approaching between Israel and the world over the Palestinian question.
This is the diabolical legacy of the tormentor Yahya Sinwar, the senior Hamas leader who, in dying, bequeathed the return of this issue to the center of the international table at the exact moment Israel has run out of supporters for establishing a hostile Islamist terror state next to the central city of Kfar Saba, given the bitter experience of Kfar Aza.
The only one who has proposed anything along these lines is Avigdor Liberman. His plan to bring Jordanian forces into the territories of Judea and Samaria is, in my view, a bitter mistake and a terrible error, but at least he understands that Israel has to seize the initiative rather than keep sailing calmly toward the iceberg. Gadi Eisenkot swings back and forth between visiting Gush Etzion and reversing Bezalel Smotrich’s moves in the West Bank; the coalition’s answer is to stick with the current course—another dunam, another goat—in the hope that the world will get used to it.
“This isn’t a foregone conclusion,” a source who knows a thing or two about U.S.-Israel relations tells me. “Even a hostile Democratic administration won’t rush to drop the automatic veto at the Security Council or recognize a state if we’re on a stable, positive track.”
He, for instance, laments the scrapping of the annexation clause in Trump’s “Deal of the Century,” whose absence has let settlement efforts sprawl across the whole territory instead of gaining legitimacy for applying sovereignty.
But looking ahead, he says, the real story is Gaza. That’s where everything started, and that’s where everything will be decided. The Trump plan that ended the war is a significant achievement worth holding onto because it’s the first one that attempts to decouple the territory between the Jordan and the sea from the Oslo framework.
Judea and Samaria and Gaza are no longer linked; a different governing arrangement is replacing the Palestinian Authority; the 1967 lines are being swapped out for an Israeli presence in the Strip; and above all, the United Nations is being pushed aside in favor of the Board of Peace. A Gaza that is rehabilitated, demilitarized, run by neither the Palestinian Authority nor Hamas could be exactly what stops the world from trying the same mistake it made in Judea and Samaria in the 1990s, hoping for a different result this time.
The first clause in the Trump plan includes something Oslo and its offshoots never did: deradicalization. Israel will always have that stick to wave against any rollback, and the world can’t object to it.
The problem is that everything is stuck.
The Americans are frustrated to the point of alarm with how Israel is conducting itself in the Strip, but the truth is they couldn’t have picked a worse moment to launch their plan: at the start of an election year. Two months passed before all the hostages’ bodies were returned, then came “Operation Roaring Lion” in Iran, and by then, the campaign at home was already heating up.
A senior Israeli official drummed it into Kushner’s ears: If you want the plan to die immediately, the surest way is to push for it right now. The right will kill it, and Netanyahu will have no choice. And the opposition? the Americans asked. They’ll make sure it’s dead too, he told them. Netanyahu, after all, is being attacked these days almost entirely for being too dovish, not too hawkish.
It’s Monday, October 12, and it took a Holocaust scholar six days after October 7 to accuse Israel of genocide in print, and South Africa less than three months to take the charge to the International Court of Justice. The Gaza Ministry of Health beat both to the punch: its count began with the first Hamas gunman to fall in southern Israel.“Israel has shifted from a concept of containment to a concept of decisive victory”
So far, researcher Salo Aizenberg has identified by name 364 Hamas attackers killed on October 7. Eighty percent of them appear on the Health Ministry’s list, counted among the victims of the “genocide.”
This not-so-subtle sleight of hand has been there for anyone to see for years. Of the 692 Gazans the ministry lists as dying on October 7, 2023, 646, or 93 percent, were men of fighting age. Most of the children recorded that day were boys aged 14 to 17.
More recently, under the October 2025 ceasefire, Israel returned roughly 400 Palestinian bodies to Gaza. To help families identify them, the Health Ministry published photos of the bodies along with the names of those already identified. Of 396 bodies listed, 91 have been named.
All 91 are on the ministry’s casualty list. All are men between 18 and 60. Sixty-three of them, 69 percent, are listed as having died on October 7, 2023, the day they crossed into Israel. Only three are listed as dying at any point between mid-November 2023 and the ceasefire, nearly two years of war. Twelve are recorded as dying after the ceasefire began, which for bodies dead this long most likely means no one knew the date and logged the day they came home. At least 23 have already been claimed as “martyrs” by Hamas’ Qassam Brigades or Islamic Jihad’s al-Quds Brigades.
All of them, regardless, made it into the database as victims of a supposed genocide.
But that’s not all. Roughly a third of the 91 were on the list before their bodies came back, and 26 were still on the last list published before the ceasefire. A Gazan family can report a presumed death with no body and no location, and the ministry will count it. That may be understandable for grieving families. It is not how you build a casualty count anyone should cite as evidence of genocide.
Add this to the mounting blows against the genocide accusation, and the charge is faltering. On Friday, the Nobel Committee tried to shore it up by awarding its Peace Prize to Navi Pillay, the South African jurist whose U.N. commission accused Israel of genocide last year. The infinitesimal courage it took to condemn Israel from a U.N. commission does not earn her a place beside laureates like Nelson Mandela, Elie Wiesel and Yitzhak Rabin, though she would have a comfortable seat beside Yasser Arafat.
The committee honored her for her efforts to promote “peace and international law.” Yet few things have done less to advance peace and international law than the genocide libel. The accusation did nothing to hasten the end of the war or the suffering in Gaza. If anything, it prolonged both by generating American pressure that could not stop Israel, only delay it. As for international law, the genocide campaign degrades law’s most basic principle: impartiality. In the trial of international law, its blatant anti-Israel bias is Exhibit A.
If President Donald Trump would kindly return Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado’s medal and take Pillay’s instead, everything would be where it belongs.
Three years after the October 7 disaster, the Israel Defense and Security Forum (IDSF) held its “From Disaster to Victory” security conference yesterday, at which seven fundamental insights concerning national security were presented.
Senior figures from the defense establishment, defense industries, local government, and the public sphere are participating in the conference, which centers on the changes in Israel’s security doctrine since October 7 and the challenges that will accompany Israel in the coming years. The various discussions addressed military and technological strength, Israel’s diplomatic standing, national resilience, internal security, the threat of delegitimization, and the battle for our home.
Participants in the conference included Prof. Yuval Steinitz, chairman of Rafael; India’s Ambassador to Israel, Jitender Pal Singh; Brig. Gen. (Res.) Erez Winner, chairman of IDSF; Col. (Res.) Dr. Ronen Itzik, the IDSF CEO; Lt. Col. (Res.) Itamar Eitam; Col. (Res.) Ilan Dickstein; Gabi Naaman, head of the Shlomi Local Council; entrepreneur and philanthropist Yossi Hollander; and Dov Oster, father of the late Capt. Eitan Oster.
Prof. Steinitz addressed Israel’s military and technological strength: “Within 36 hours, the Air Force achieved decisive air superiority over Iran, even though our closest partners in the world did not believe we would succeed in achieving this for many months. This achievement was made possible, among other things, thanks to Rafael’s unique munitions, some of which are still classified.”
*A profound shift in the concept*
India’s Ambassador to Israel, Jitender Pal Singh, paid tribute to the victims of the October 7 terrorist attack and expressed solidarity with the affected families.
He reiterated India’s steadfast commitment to combating terrorism.
IDSF chairman Brig. Gen. (Res.) Erez Winner said in his closing address at the conference: “We are currently in a state of victory. We will not be - we are winning today. Israel has shifted from a concept of containment to a concept of decisive victory, from an enemy firing and us responding to a situation in which we act to prevent it from building the threat in the first place. Today, when people discuss a strike in Tehran, they no longer ask how and why - they ask when. This is a profound shift in Israel’s security doctrine.”


















