Friday, June 19, 2026

06/18 Links Pt1: The Ceasefire Neither Ends nor Eases the Iranian Threat; Florida man planned mass shooting at AIPAC office; Germany foiled Hamas Oct. 7 anniversary plot

From Ian:

JPost Editorial: Hamas weaponized our desire for quiet; now Israel must learn it can't afford innocence
The newly exposed Hamas files have forced Israel to confront one of the most painful truths of the October 7 massacre: Hamas caught Israel off guard by studying it, feeding it the signals it wanted to see, and turning its wish for quiet into part of the battlefield.

Yonah Jeremy Bob’s exclusive report in The Jerusalem Post, based on documents provided by the Military Intelligence Directorate to the Meir Amit Terrorism and Intelligence Research Institute, shows a calculated deception effort that began long before the massacre.

A Hamas document from September 2022 addressed the need to build a “strategic deception” plan for a surprise attack. Another, from September 25, 2023, shortly before the invasion, described calibrated border pressure, mediated demands, and the use of Jewish festivals as tactical opportunities.

That is the horror of these documents. They show planning, patience, and confidence.

Hamas understood that Israel had come to see Gaza through a management doctrine: More work permits. More Qatari money. More indirect messages through mediators. More rounds in which Palestinian Islamic Jihad fired, and Hamas sat on the sidelines.

Quiet became evidence. Restraint became analysis. Economic distress became deterrence.

The documents suggest Hamas understood all of this and weaponized it. This deepens Israel’s self-indictment. A serious country expects enemies to lie. Terrorist organizations deceive. Intelligence exists because hostile actors conceal intentions, simulate routine, and exploit assumptions.

The question is why so many warnings, patterns, drills, border incidents, and signals were forced into a theory that said Hamas wanted calm more than war.

The answer begins with the old “conceptzia,” the preconceived notion that the enemy is deterred because our logic says he should be.

Israel has known this failure before. In 1973, it believed Egypt and Syria would refrain from launching war under conditions Israel considered irrational.

In 2023, it believed Hamas would prioritize its rule, its money, and its economic arrangements over a catastrophic confrontation. Hamas read that arrogance and built a trap around it.

The Saudi-normalization context makes the lesson wider. Hamas saw a regional order forming that could push the Palestinian issue aside and strengthen Israel’s place in the Middle East. It chose mass violence to blow up diplomacy.
Mark Levin: The US-Iran MoU is a dangerous gamble
The nuclear issue
Item 8 states that Iran “reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons” and that the fate of enriched uranium and other nuclear-related issues will be resolved later.

Shouldn’t that have been the first issue addressed?

The agreement offers relief and concessions immediately, while postponing the most critical details about permanently dismantling Iran’s nuclear program and eliminating its enriched uranium stockpiles.

Now there is talk of merely degrading the uranium. At best, this provision amounts to little more than a slogan.

Item 9 prevents us from strengthening our regional military posture or imposing new sanctions while negotiations continue, surrendering even more leverage.

Item 10 immediately grants waivers for Iranian crude oil exports, petroleum products, banking, insurance and transportation services.

In other words, the Iranian regime is back in business before any final agreement is reached. Billions of dollars will begin flowing into Tehran immediately.

Item 11 releases frozen Iranian assets and restricted funds.

Again, billions more flow directly to the regime before it has demonstrated any meaningful change in behavior.

What’s missing
Notably absent from the agreement are several critical issues.

First, there is not a word about Iran’s ballistic missile program, the regime’s most destructive conventional weapon and one capable of killing tens of thousands of people. This omission is a grave concession.

Second, there is nothing addressing Iran’s support for terrorism and terrorist organizations. I have no illusion that Tehran’s sponsorship of terrorism will end under this arrangement.

Third, there is no mention of the Iranian people, whom we once promised to support. They appear to have been abandoned.

Fourth, there is no discussion of reparations owed by the regime to the United States, Israel or Arab states for the devastation caused by its missile attacks.

During the next 60 days, this MoU requires serious changes—if not outright abandonment.
Bret Stephens: The Ceasefire Neither Ends nor Eases the Iranian Threat
Iran's military leaders have greeted the ceasefire agreement with President Trump as a triumph, crowing that "through the imposition of their divine and iron will" they had "humiliated American and Zionist enemies."

Today, Iran is no longer within sprinting distance of a bomb. Its ally in Syria was deposed. Hizbullah, Hamas and the Houthis have lost much of their fighting strength. The Iranian rial is worthless. The leadership rules an unhappy population that would almost certainly overthrow it if given the chance. Its latest ballistic missile salvo against Israel failed to land a serious single blow.

Americans who supported the war believed that Iran, which has waged a 47-year war against us, posed an increasingly intolerable threat to our security and vital interests. This ceasefire neither ends nor eases that threat. It removes the one point of U.S. leverage over Iran - the naval blockade of its ports - before there's any negotiation over its nuclear program, which the Iranians will almost surely drag out until Trump is out of office.
Trump's Iran Deal Isn't Perfect. It Doesn't Need to Be.
Notions that the U.S. should have held out for more upfront nuclear concessions from Iran gets things backward. The U.S. and the world need shipping to resume through the Strait of Hormuz. They do not need a nuclear agreement with Iran, and Mr. Trump should not make negotiating one a priority in his postwar Iran policy.

For all the operational capability demonstrated by the U.S. military over the course of this conflict, there is no painting the preliminary outcome as a resounding American victory. Food and energy costs have spiked; U.S. military resources have been depleted; America's alliances in the Middle East and Europe have suffered. Nor was the war a win for the Iranian regime, whose conventional military capability is diminished, economy crippled and leadership demolished.

These results obscure an important detail: the U.S. has significantly reduced the nuclear threat posed by Iran. According to U.S. intelligence agencies, Iran's nuclear program was advanced enough that it was capable of producing sufficient fissile material for a nuclear weapon within a matter of days, and a small arsenal's worth within just weeks.

Today, Iran's nuclear program is arguably the weakest it's been since the early 2000s. To produce a nuclear weapon, Iran would need to reconstitute its infrastructure, which is believed to have been largely destroyed, while facing the prospect of additional strikes as it tried to rebuild.

Much of the global economic pressure that has been building as a result of this war will dissipate once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, but Iran's economy will remain in tatters. Whatever agreement Washington and Tehran reach, an Iranian regime determined to dominate its region and control its people through force will be unfriendly to American interests and its regional partners.


Florida man indicted on federal hate crime and gun charges for planning to target AIPAC office in mass shooting
A federal grand jury indicted Forrest Kendall Pemberton, 27, of Gainesville, Fla., on hate crime and firearms charges for allegedly trying to carry out a mass shooting targeting AIPAC employees in Plantation, Fla.

He was previously charged with stalking for targeting the pro-Israel lobby group.

Pemberton armed himself with an AR-15-style rifle fitted with a silencer and traveled to what he thought were AIPAC offices in South Florida on Dec. 23, 2024, and he intended to carry out a mass shooting targeting Jewish employees, the U.S. Justice Department said.

He allegedly told investigators that he visited the office pretending to be a volunteer, so he could scout the location, confirm access points and then return with concealed firearms.

Relatives told law enforcement that they found a letter that they believed Pemberton wrote before leaving home in which he wrote that he wanted to “close the loop,” “stoke the flames” and say “goodbye” to his family.

He allegedly told law enforcement that he targeted AIPAC because of its “political influence” and that he wanted to “see if I could make a change.”

He faces life in prison on the hate crime charge and a mandatory sentence of up to 30 years in prison on the firearms charge.
Germany foiled Hamas Oct. 7 anniversary plot, prosecutor says
When German authorities arrested three suspected Hamas operatives in 2025, the detainees had already recorded a video claiming responsibility for an attack they were allegedly planning in Europe to coincide with the anniversary of the Oct. 7 massacre, a senior prosecutor revealed on Tuesday.

“A pre-produced video claiming responsibility was seized from one of the suspects,” German Public Prosecutor General Jens Rommel told reporters in Karlsruhe, the DPA news agency reported. Rommel was speaking about nine suspects arrested last October, who are accused of involvement in transporting and storing weapons and ammunition for Hamas.

The video announced an attack on the second anniversary of the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, assault on Israel. Three of the nine suspects were arrested on Oct. 1, 2025.

European security services have uncovered several alleged Hamas plots and networks. In Germany, authorities arrested four suspected Hamas operatives in 2023 and later charged them with maintaining weapons caches across Europe for use in attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets.

Danish authorities have also linked Hamas to a foiled terror plot targeting Jewish sites.
Israeli Officials See U.S.-Iran Deal as Problematic
Israeli officials on Wednesday privately described the U.S.-Iran agreement as disappointing and problematic, identifying several clauses as particularly troubling. The MoU states that the U.S. Treasury Department will immediately allow exports of Iranian crude oil, effectively providing Tehran with billions of dollars before it makes significant concessions and giving Tehran financial breathing room.

The MoU states that existing enriched uranium stockpiles would be diluted in Iran and would not be removed from the country.

While the MoU declares an immediate end to military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, Israeli officials have opposed linking the Iranian and Lebanese theaters, arguing that doing so could shield Hizbullah.

The MoU does not require an immediate Israeli withdrawal and any permanent arrangement would only be addressed in a final agreement following negotiations that could be extended beyond the initial 60 days. Israeli officials said they do not expect a comprehensive agreement to be reached quickly.

IDF officials insist on preserving Israel's operational freedom throughout Lebanon, maintaining a buffer zone north of the border where Israeli forces are deployed, and ensuring the continued demilitarization of southern Lebanon. Israel opposes any withdrawal before an effective agreement with the Lebanese government is reached.
Jake Wallis Simons: For decades, Trump was the voice of sanity on Iran. No longer
The results? A deal which fails to address Tehran’s ballistic missile stockpile, proxy militia or repression of its own people, while also pressuring Israel to spare Hezbollah. Hell, it doesn’t even address the nuclear question, merely “reaffirming” a meaningless commitment to non-proliferation made in 2015 in paragraph one of Obama’s deal, which Trump mocked so mercilessly at the time.

Moreover, the US pledges to withdraw all forces, never to redeploy them and to renounce belligerence, while making no such demands upon Tehran. The price of all this? Much more than $300bn, dwarfing Obama’s handouts several times over. In summary, then, the US spent up to a trillion dollars degrading Iran’s military capabilities; failed to reach any of their war aims; and are now paying the Iranians to replace what they just destroyed.

Last night, there followed an historic nadir for America. Speaking at the G7, Trump humiliatingly reversed a lifetime of hawkishness on Iran, claiming that this abject defeat was in the plan all along. Suddenly, he claimed it was fine for Tehran to have ballistic missiles, as “it’s a little unfair” if other states have them. He used the same principle – which he described as “common sense” – to suggest that Iran should also be allowed to enrich uranium.

Other jaw-dropping moments included his suggestion that you could “walk right across the border” from Qatar to Iran – you cannot, Mr President, the Persian Gulf is in the way – and that Syria’s former Al Qaeda leader should deal with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Trump also made an inappropriate remark to a male reporter.

But the real icing on the cake was the president’s open admission of the reasons for his defeat. “The alternative would be a worldwide depression… You can only go so far. Drive somebody into the ground and a lot of bad things happen. Number one, the Strait would never open… So now we have a very hot stock market and a very low oil price.”

So it goes. I have long argued, alongside many others, that America’s military debacle in Iran will be studied by generations of war historians. Depressingly, we have been proven right. When it came to the crunch, the Iranians handed Trump his backside on a plate. The man who spent his entire adult life arguing for American strength has become the figurehead of American weakness.


Friday talks between US, Iran will not take place, Swiss Foreign Ministry confirms
The planned talks between the United States and Iran will not take place as planned on Friday at Bürgenstock, the Swiss Foreign Ministry announced on Friday morning.

On Thursday, the White House said in a statement that US Vice President JD Vance will not travel to Switzerland for talks with Iranian negotiators over the weekend, citing logistical issues.

“The plans for the upcoming technical talks have not been finalized, and the US delegation has been prepared to depart at the first available opportunity,” said the statement from Washington regarding Vance's cancellation.

“But the logistics of these negotiations have never been simple or predictable. As of now, the Vice President is not departing tonight," it added.

The announcement comes hours after Iran reportedly canceled its own delegation’s flight, citing continued attacks by Israel on Hezbollah in Lebanon, according to an early Friday morning Axios report, citing a US official.

Late Thursday evening, the Hezbollah-affiliated news outlet Al Mayadeen, citing a source familiar with the matter reported that Iran warned US mediators that the issue of Lebanon is central to its ability to hold, continue, or halt negotiations.

Any Israeli attack more than 10 kilometers deep in Lebanon would constitute “a clear violation of the first article in the Memorandum of Understanding,” Al Mayadeen reported.
The Jerusalem PostMojtaba Khamenei: Trump pushed for MoU 'out of desperation,' Iran will not submit to US demandsIranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said that Iran will not submit to the "excessive demands" of the United States in future negotiations with the US in....6 hours ago
Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said that Iran will not submit to the "excessive demands" of the United States in future negotiations with the US in a series of posts on X/Twitter on Thursday.

Khamenei said that he eventually approved the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) based only on a series of promises from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and the negotiating team.

"I, as a matter of principle, held a different view; however, out of the commitment that the esteemed president—as the head of the Supreme National Security Council—gave to me on his own behalf and on behalf of the other members regarding the safeguarding of the rights of the Iranian nation and the Resistance Front, and his explicit acceptance of that responsibility, I granted my permission."

Khamenei argued that "it was the American president who, out of desperation, used all kinds of leverage to bring this about."

The Iranian supreme leader then said that Iran would wait to see the deal's effects, but that it was evident that in-person negotiations did not constitute acceptance of the American position.

The MoU was signed on Thursday by Trump and Pezeshkian. US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf digitally signed the agreement, with Trump witnessing the signing, according to the US official.


Khaled Abu Toameh: Trump's Iran 'Deal' Has Already Emboldened Hamas
Hamas, the Iranian-backed group responsible for the October 7, 2023 massacre in Israel, is openly calling to escalate attacks against Israel and signaling its intention to shift the center of its jihad (holy war) from the Gaza Strip to the West Bank.

To Hamas and the rest of Iran's "Axis of Resistance," the prospect of a "deal" between Washington and Tehran is not being interpreted as a sign of American strength. It is being viewed as a sign of America's weakness and a victory for the Iranian regime -- which the US defeated -- and proof that the US is eager to end conflicts at virtually any price.

The world had been expecting to hear the US announce that unless Iran accepted all of America's terms unconditionally, the ceasefire was over. Instead, the US has agreed in principle to Iran's terms. America has deliberately chosen to lose a war -- again.

Unlike the Gaza Strip, the mountainous terrain of the West Bank is high ground. It overlooks the low broad plain along the Mediterranean coast that is home to Israel's most densely populated areas. Major Israeli cities, Ben-Gurion International Airport, and critical infrastructure are within easy range of terrorists operating from the hills: one can comfortably look down over all of central Israel.

Unlike in the Gaza Strip, there are hundreds of thousands of Israelis who live in the West Bank -- easy targets for the terrorists.

The reported MOU... does not address Iran's terrorist proxies: Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, and various Shiite militias across the Middle East. This is not a minor detail. It is fundamental -- seen by these groups as a green light to step up their terrorism ever since Trump tried to stop Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from dismantling them.

The terrorists see the "daylight" that Iran's regime maneuvered Trump into creating between the US and Israel as a most welcome gift.

To Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, public friction between Washington and Jerusalem signals that at last, the US may be distancing itself from its closest ally in the Middle East.

International agreements and diplomatic arrangements do not persuade terrorist organizations in the Middle East to abandon their jihadist ideology or their objective of destroying Israel.

Trump promised a new reality for the Gaza Strip – a "Riviera of the Middle East." More than six months after his much-publicized "Board of Peace" initiative and ceasefire plan, however, Hamas remains in power there, more brutal than ever. It still controls large parts of the territory, continues to recruit and train terrorists, retains substantial military capabilities, and openly rejects disarmament.

So long as this Iranian regime and its proxies remain intact, there will be no genuine peace or stability in the Middle East.
Vance slams Israeli critics of Iran deal, says they need to ‘wake up and smell the reality’
U.S. Vice President JD Vance had sharp words on Thursday for Israeli critics of the Trump administration’s peace deal with Iran, accusing them of being ungrateful to the United States.

Speaking to reporters during a White House press briefing, Vance said that he was skeptical of reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was “fuming” over the agreement before sharply criticizing members of the Israeli cabinet who have made negative public remarks.

“That’s not reflective of the conversations that I’ve had with him, but maybe he’s saying something to somebody else that he’s not saying to me,” Vance said of Netanyahu. “What I will say, and this does bother me, is that you’ve seen people within Bibi’s cabinet who have come out and attacked the deal, and in some ways, very personally attacked the president of the United States.”

“My message to them would be twofold: One, Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time, and he happens to be the head of state of the world’s superpower,” Vance said. “If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world.”

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir are among the Israeli officials who have publicly come out against the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, with Ben-Gvir writing that Israel would not be bound by the deal.

Ben-Gvir posted an image of Vance on social media on Thursday, saying the United States ought to have dealt with “the Nazis of the 21st century,” referring to Iran, “just as the United States dealt with the Nazis of the 20th century.”

Vance credited Netanyahu with avoiding personal attacks on Trump, but reminded the Israeli cabinet that “two-thirds of the defensive weapons that have protected your homeland have been built by American hands and paid for by American tax dollars.”

He stated that “the problem for Israel is not Donald J. Trump, and anybody in Israel who thinks their biggest problem is the president of the United States needs to wake up and smell the reality of the situation that country is in.”


Iran chief negotiator vows to avenge Supreme Leader’s death with ‘liberation of Jerusalem’
Iran’s chief negotiator in the deal signed today with the US has warned the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khameini will be avenged with the “liberation of Jerusalem”.

The Memorandum of Understanding agreed between the US and the Islamic Republic has raised hopes of ending the conflict in the Gulf, pending a final agreement.

But Tehran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf signalled the regime remains committed to its longstanding objective of the destruction of Israel, in a newly published interview that contradicts hopes of peace.

Responding to regime hardliners who oppose any engagement with the US, he vowed the regime will take revenge for Ali Khaemini’s death in an Israeli air strike in February, and disparaged prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Ghalibaf, who is the Speaker of the Iranian parliament, said: "The true way to avenge the martyred Imam is the liberation of Jerusalem.

"One hundred Netanyahus are not worth the shoelace of the martyred Imam."

Regime leaders have moved quickly to portray the deal as a strategic victory dictated by Tehran rather than a concession to Washington.

Officials sought to reassure the public with promises of economic relief while insisting that the Islamic Republic's ideological principles remain unchanged.

For weeks US officials have suggested they were negotiating with the man they regarded as Iran's "real leader".

It became clear that the figure in question was Ghalibaf, who met Vice President J.D. Vance during talks in Islamabad.


Trump: ‘We expect a complete ceasefire’ between Hezbollah and Israel
US President Donald Trump on Thursday declared, “We expect a complete ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon, Hezbollah and Israel,” after signing a deal with Iran declaring the permanent end of military operations in Lebanon.

“The United States is committed to PEACE, and we encourage everyone in the Middle East region to maintain their commitment to allowing our negotiations to beautifully unfold,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

The message came amid mounting anger over what the Trump administration has criticized as indiscriminate Israeli attacks against Hezbollah, while clarifying that Jerusalem has the right to respond to attacks by the Iran-backed terror group and avoiding publicly calling on Israel to withdraw from Lebanon.

In private, however, the US has called for a withdrawal — and been rebuffed by Israel, as Iran claims the Israel Defense Forces’s continued presence in Lebanon is a violation of the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran.

Israel has insisted that it is not beholden to the MOU and that it will not pull its troops out of southern Lebanon, a stance Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated on Thursday.

“We will restore security and prosperity to northern towns,” he said at an official ceremony concerning Route 60, a north-south highway stretching from Nazareth to Beersheba that runs through the West Bank. “That requires maintaining the security zone in southern Lebanon; it requires that we not leave there, as long as Israel’s security needs require it.” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets with troops in the Israeli-controlled buffer zone in southern Lebanon, on April 12, 2026. (Kobi Gideon/ GPO)

A senior Israeli official close to Netanyahu told Reuters earlier Thursday that Jerusalem is “conducting stubborn negotiations” with the US on the issue of continuing its deployment of troops in southern Lebanon. The IDF later published an updated map of its security zone in the country, saying it will not be withdrawing from the territory at this stage.


June 18, 2026: Tom Cotton joins The Story with Martha MacCallum



Commentary Podcast: Mullah Moolah
Matt Continetti is back to discuss the inauguration of the Obama presidential center in Chicago and president Obama's legacy. Plus, the ongoing unfolding Iran disaster with the signing of the MOU and Trump's press conference, Israel's precarious position in Lebanon, and Matt recommends The Infinity Machine.


Call me Back Podcast: The Iran Deal and Netanyahu’s Future - with Amit Segal
What does the Iran deal mean for Israel, and for Netanyahu’s political future?

Dan is joined by Ark Media contributor and Channel 12 political analyst Amit Segal to assess the newly announced U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding and the political questions it has unleashed in Israel. As negotiations begin and the fighting pauses, they discuss whether the war should be seen as a success, a missed opportunity, or something whose consequences are still unfolding. They also discuss the growing tension between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, the fight over Lebanon, and what all of it could mean for Israel's next election.

In this episode:
04:03 - What worries Israel most about the new Iran deal?
06:18 - Trump’s unpredictability and the limits of certainty
13:15 - Is this a pause button or a rewind button for Iran?
18:42 - Does anyone expect a final agreement within 60 days?
20:57 - Why Lebanon has become the real battleground
23:09 - The growing tension between Trump and Netanyahu
28:54 - How the deal is reshaping Israeli politics
39:12 - How will history judge the war with Iran?


Trump's Deal Abandons Israel | Haviv Rettig Gur
On Wednesday, President Donald Trump and Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran. The agreement set up a 60-day period of negotiations and covers the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, frozen funds, sanctions relief, Iranian oil exports, Lebanon, and more.

In the hours since, figures across the political spectrum have fiercely debated whether the deal is good for the U.S.—or if it represents a form of capitulation to the Iranian regime. So we went to Free Press Middle East analyst Haviv Rettig Gur to break it all down: how the strait will be opened, what the nuclear concessions are, and how much money Iran could be getting; the biggest concerns for the U.S. and Israel, and the state of their relationship; why Trump’s team wasn’t prepared for the war’s true costs; what’s next for the Gulf States; and who the real winner will be when the dust finally settles.







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