Wednesday, March 11, 2026

03/11 Links Pt1: Iran’s threats of military destruction have proven utterly hollow; Iran’s missile fire rate has collapsed by 92%

From Ian:

Jake Wallis Simons: Iran’s threats of military destruction have proven utterly hollow
When it comes to the rest of the regime’s performance, the kindest interpretation is that they are focussing on attritional endurance rather than decisive retaliation, hoping that political and economic pressure, combined with the structural resilience that the regime has developed since the 12-day war last June, will force the American president to curtail the war with the new leader still standing. The most likely interpretation, however, is that amid the shock and awe of the American-Israeli campaign, they have been reduced to reacting defensively rather than strategically. Panicking, in other words.

Of the 2,000 Iranian drones and more than 500 ballistic and cruise missiles fired into neighbouring countries since the start of the war, the overwhelming majority have been intercepted. The few that sneaked through have caused a handful of deaths and injuries and destroyed some military equipment, but no major base has been disabled. In recent days, the launch cadence has dropped by as much as 90 per cent, suggesting a collapse in stockpiles, launchers and command and control. And as for the second pillar of Iranian belligerence, its foreign proxies, they have been equally unimpressive.

After a hesitant start, the most important of these, Hezbollah, has in recent days swung into action, raining hundreds of missiles into Israel’s north (some of which have fallen short). But Jerusalem’s response has been aggressive; the lesson of the aftermath of October 7, which saw hundreds of thousands of Israelis displaced within their own country as a result of Hezbollah fire, has been well learnt. Today, the IDF’s doctrine is simple: attack us and you will be the one forced to flee, not us.

The Israeli incursion into Lebanon, which has so far cost the lives of a small number of soldiers, should be seen in this context. Analysts believe that Hezbollah may be rationing its rockets to avoid a suicidal total war and preserve its options for the future. But after the pager operation and subsequent battering it sustained in September 2024, the fanatical militia is also in a degree of disarray.

The other big question mark hangs over Iran’s nuclear programme, much of which lay in ruins even before this war began. Buried deep underground near the city of Isfahan, 270 miles south of Tehran, lies the regime’s bloody crown jewels, about 400kg of uranium that has been enriched to 60 per cent. This material, which in certain contexts could be weaponised in a matter of weeks, is the regime’s buried treasure; if allied boots do hit the ground during this war, they will likely belong to commandos sent to secure the site, excavate the uranium and spirit it safely out of the country.

The overwhelming likelihood is that defeat, and not just a cosmetic one, lies ahead for the worst regime on the planet. If I was a betting man, I would not give much for Ali Larijani’s chances of surviving the month, or indeed for those of the regime’s new leader. Nobody knows what kind of a country will emerge after the dust has settled. Nobody knows if we will see chaos or peace. But given Trump’s resolute posture and the vast firepower at his disposal, the president will likely be having his shoes polished in the Oval Office long after Larijani is dead.
Bernard-Henri Levy: Netanyahu Is Pulling Trump's Strings? Antisemites Will Believe Anything
Some experts say the U.S. war with Iran was inspired by Israel and imposed by Israel, and that the U.S. is merely the executor of "Israel's war." I don't deny that the two countries have converging interests, or that their military and intelligence agencies are operating in close coordination. But that is called an alliance.

Would anyone have said that Franklin D. Roosevelt was being manipulated by Charles de Gaulle? Or that Winston Churchill - who in 1919 said Bolshevism should be strangled in its cradle - became Stalin's puppet 22 years later?

In this case, Israel has one concern: neutralizing a threat that it rightly considers existential. The U.S. has its own concerns: defending its allies (Arab countries as well as Israel), weakening a strategic axis that runs from Tehran to Moscow and Beijing, and washing away the humiliation that has remained for 47 years - the invasion of the U.S. Embassy in 1979 and holding of American hostages for more than a year.

To believe that a country the size of New Jersey could twist the arm of a country of 350 million, equipped with the most powerful military and the most sophisticated network of bases in history, and governed by a president of unrivaled egotism? To imagine that Donald Trump would have given any foreign prime minister the gift of a war of this magnitude? It is simply grotesque.

But the more serious problem is that this fable revives a very old and toxic lie. This is how people thought in the 1930s - those who saw in "the Jews" a community of conspirators pushing nations toward war, pulling the strings of catastrophe, and scheming to provoke conflicts from which they expected to profit.
The Forgotten 444 Days in Tehran
In 1979 Iranians held 52 Americans hostage for more than a year. From 1979 to 1981, the captives seized from the American Embassy were humiliated, paraded around blindfolded for cameras and jeering crowds and threatened.

Diplomatic immunity is a concept that goes back to ancient times. It evolved over centuries to an accepted standard between governments. Even Adolf Hitler respected diplomatic immunity.

The Iranians used diplomatic immunity when it was in their murderous interest. They used diplomatic immunity to bring in the bomb material used in the car bomb detonated outside a Jewish center in Buenos Aires on July 18, 1994, killing 85 and wounding another 300.

Tens of thousands of human beings would be alive today, and the entire Middle East wouldn't have been destabilized for half a century, had the Iranian theocracy been stopped at the start.
Dr. Houman David Hammati: On Iran, We Stand with Israel and America
47 years ago, I stood at a window in Tehran as a 3-year-old boy, smelling burning tires and hearing the chants that would steal my country. I do not celebrate war. No decent person does. What I celebrate - what millions of Iranians inside the country and in the diaspora have prayed for in secret for decades - is the possibility that a regime which has no right to exist may finally be forced to go.

This is the same regime that armed and cheered the Oct. 7 massacre against Israel for no reason other than pure genocidal hatred; murdered tens of thousands of its own sons and daughters who dared to walk peacefully in the streets demanding the most basic freedoms; gouges out the eyes of young women for the "crime" of wearing makeup; hangs teenagers from cranes for posting a tweet; exports terror, poverty, and darkness to every corner it can reach including the U.S.

No nation, no people, should have to live under that. Not Israelis. Not Americans. And certainly not Iranians. I am a son of Iran who has spent his life mourning a stolen homeland. What we are witnessing is not aggression - it is necessary surgery to remove a tumor that has metastasized for 47 years. The tumor is the Islamic Republic that has hijacked Iran.

To the brave pilots of the Israel Air Force and the men and women of the U.S. military now carrying out this mission: You are not invaders. You are the answer to the prayers of millions who have whispered "enough" in the dark since 1979. Thank you, Israel. Thank you, America. The Iranian people - the real Iran - will never forget.


Pierre Rehov: UN and EU Condemn the Strike, Not the Regime: Double Standards, Selective Outrage
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres issued a statement... with the formulation that has become the UN's signature posture in moments of crisis: "The use of force by the United States and Israel against Iran, and the subsequent retaliation by Iran across the region, undermine international peace and security."

The UN Security Council convened an emergency session. Russia and China denounced the operation as a violation of Iranian sovereignty. Several European governments echoed concerns about precedent and pressed for an immediate cessation of hostilities and a return to talk, talk, talk.

France, Germany and the United Kingdom... quickly moved to place distance between themselves and the military operation... "We call for a resumption of negotiations and urge the Iranian leadership to seek a negotiated solution."

These reactions -- never spontaneous improvisations -- reflect a dismissive European posture that has been consistent for years: a preference for managed "containment" over the inconvenience of actually having to address a problem head-on, and for diplomatic processes over taking decisive outcomes.

The only goal, apparently, was "stability" -- no matter how morally flatulent -- but evidently preferable to actually having to do anything apart from lecturing everyone.

The UN Human Rights Council has devoted more agenda items to maligning Israeli policies than to the far worse abuses in authoritarian states. Usually, in crises from Syria's civil war to Iran's crackdowns on dissidents, UN language is diluted through negotiated compromise and voting-bloc discipline.

Abroad, terrorism has been used as a tool of coercion -- too often with the affected nations permitting success.

Domestic political considerations — including the management of migration flows and relations with Arab states — have further complicated open endorsement of decisive military action.

These moral gymnastics are not unprecedented. During the Cold War, debates at the UN reflected blocs more than principles. Authoritarian regimes benefited from solidarities rooted in ideology, transactional alliances, or sheer voting arithmetic.

Coalitions within the UN General Assembly, including states with limited or no democratic credentials, shape the tone and content of resolutions. Within that environment, Israel has long been a focal target of attack, a convenient proxy through which regimes and blocs rehearse moral posturing while deflecting attention from the abuses they inflict at home.
Gulf states lead resolution at UN Security Council decrying Iran that passes sans opposition
The United Nations Security Council, which includes the Arab representative Bahrain, voted 13-0 on Wednesday to condemn Iran for its strikes on its Gulf neighbors. The vote, from which Russia and China abstained, was a highly unusual rebuke of the Islamic Republic by Arab states.

Just before the vote, Mike Waltz, the U.S. ambassador to the global body, told reporters that “the atrocities that we’re seeing, the deliberate attacks on civilian infrastructure, on ports, on airports, on energy production facilities, on hotels, on resorts across the Gulf is unacceptable.”

“It’s disgusting, frankly, and I, for one, am proud to see Bahrain lead its neighbors in condemning these actions,” the U.S. envoy said.

The resolution, which the Gulf Cooperation Council drafted, won support from 135 U.N. member states—a record-high, according to Loraine Sievers, co-author of “The Procedure of the UN Security Council” and former chief of the U.N. Security Council secretariat branch.

During the Security Council meeting, Waltz said that he wanted to be “perfectly clear and polite that there has been some misrepresentation here today.”

“The accusation that this resolution put forward by the Kingdom of Bahrain, supported by every member of the GCC, and I see all of them here today, and supported by 135 countries, the most co-sponsors of a U.N. Security Council resolution ever, was somehow manipulated by one or two countries is laughable,” the U.S. envoy said.

“We urge Iran to hear the voice of the council, of this resolution that saw no opposition today and of the entire international community,” Waltz said. “But more importantly, we urge Iran to listen to its own brave people and stop the indiscriminate attacks on civilians across the Middle East.”

Danny Danon, the Israeli ambassador to the United Nations, said after the vote that the “Islamic regime is firing on the countries of the region out of desperation, because it understands that the world has already recognized its true face.”

“The regime in Tehran is trying to export terror and destruction, but even the Security Council is running out of patience with Iranian aggression,” Danon said.

The measure “condemns in the strongest terms” Iran’s “egregious attacks” on Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan since the outbreak of its war against the United States and Israel.


Jonathan Sacerdoti: Where is the new Supreme Leader of Iran?
Inside Israel, the war continues to affect the civilian population, with constant missiles and drones sending the population into shelters throughout the day. Israeli authorities say 12 people have been killed and around 200 injured, including seven in a serious condition, bby missile attacks from Iran.

According to Israeli officials, about half of the missiles fired toward Israel carry cluster warheads, dispersing smaller bomblets in mid-air and spreading debris over a radius of roughly ten kilometres. One such strike hit a construction site in Yehud, where two workers who were not in protected spaces were killed. Missile launches from Iran continued intermittently throughout the day, although Israeli officials say Tehran appears to be struggling to coordinate large-scale barrages.

At the same time, the northern front remains active. Hezbollah has continued firing anti-tank missiles and short-range rockets toward Israeli troops and northern communities. Israel has responded with strikes across southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah command infrastructure and financial networks linked to the organisation. Israeli officials say fighter jets have struck facilities associated with the Al-Qard al-Hassan financial network, which Israel says helps fund Hezbollah’s military activities.

The Israeli government has also moved to finance the war effort. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the conflict as a campaign against an enemy seeking Israel’s destruction. ‘We are in a campaign with a cruel enemy who wants to destroy us,’ he said. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich confirmed that tens of billions of shekels will be added to the defence budget in order to fund the war. ‘This is not an expense,’ Smotrich said. ‘This is an investment.’ To pass the wartime budget, the government has postponed several controversial domestic initiatives, including legislation on military conscription. ‘War is a time for unity,’ Smotrich added.

Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said Tehran was ‘certainly not seeking a ceasefire,’ adding that ‘the aggressor should be punched in the teeth so that it learns a lesson and never again thinks about attacking Iran.’

Strategically, the conflict is already reshaping the region. Hezbollah’s decision to open a northern front reflects Iran’s broader regional strategy, and the internal uncertainty surrounding Mojtaba Khamenei’s leadership may signal deeper instability inside the Iranian regime. The war shows no sign of slowing just yet.
Senior Israeli defense sources: Iran regime change not military goal, creating conditions for it is
As doubts about the prospect of imminent regime change in Iran spike, senior defense sources have told The Jerusalem Post this is not and never was a military goal.

Rather, the IDF always hoped to enhance the conditions that might make regime change in Iran possible if the domestic opposition to the government would be ready to take to the streets again in sufficient numbers to topple the regime, the sources said.

The military would look positively at regime change and wanted to try to help the process, but it never had illusions that military action by itself would guarantee such an outcome, they said.

This message might contrast with the public line of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has vacillated between calling publicly for Iranian protesters to erupt into the streets to bring about immediate regime change, as opposed to talking about it as a potential event and process that might take at least a year.

The distinction is important to the IDF, which feels the public should view the current war as a success based on the limited mission parameters defined for beforehand.
Will Iranian attacks push Qatar to expel Hamas leaders?
Despite Qatar’s anger with Iran over the regime’s continued attacks on its territory and civilian infrastructure, experts are divided over whether the conflict will ultimately force Doha to reconsider its long-standing policy of hosting Iranian-backed Hamas officials.

Qatar has hosted Hamas’ political office and leadership, who have been reported to live lavishly and amass significant wealth, since 2012. Doha previously agreed to expel Hamas officials during hostage negotiations with Israel, but ultimately did not follow through.

Some experts told Jewish Insider that shifting regional dynamics amid the U.S. and Israeli conflict with Iran could be sufficient to change Qatar’s calculus. In the days following the launch of the joint U.S. and Israeli military operation against Iran, Tehran has launched widespread drone and missile strikes at multiple Arab nations, including Qatar.

Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani condemned the Iranian strikes last week as a “flagrant violation” of Doha’s sovereignty in a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and “categorically rejected” Tehran’s claims that the strikes were directed only at American interests and not intended to target the Gulf state.

Hamas — which has received significant funding, training, arms and intelligence from Tehran for decades — has not denounced the Iranian strikes, instead placing the blame on the U.S. and Israel.

Anne Dreazen, vice president of the American Jewish Committee’s Center for a New Middle East, told JI that while Doha has raised the possibility of expelling Hamas leadership in the past, the recent attacks and the group’s lack of condemnation of the Iranian strikes signals that “the situation is a little bit different now.”

“These Iranian attacks across the Gulf have really forced many regional governments to reassess how much space they want to give the Iranian regime-aligned groups,” Dreazen said. “I think Qatar probably perceives that Hamas is siding with the Iranian regime, and so that could create some additional pressure on Qatar to act.”
It's Time to Finally Eliminate Hizbullah
For decades, the Lebanese people have lived under the shadow of a state within a state: Hizbullah, an armed proxy of the Iranian regime that hollowed out Lebanon's sovereignty, economy and political system. If Lebanon is ever going to reclaim its independence, this is the moment.

Hizbullah's strength rested not only on its position within Lebanon but also on the broader architecture of Iran's regional proxy network. That network allowed Tehran to project power across the Middle East while pursuing its ambitions of destroying Israel and imposing the Iranian regime's theocratic vision across the region. That structure is now under unprecedented strain due to President Trump's actions, working hand in hand with Israel, to finally break the Iranian regime's ability to threaten Israel, Iran's Arab neighbors, and the U.S. itself.

The Iranian regime, the pillar sustaining Hizbullah, has been significantly degraded. For decades, Hizbullah and other Iranian proxies operated with the confidence that Tehran's support would always be there. But the regime's ability to bankroll distant militias while its own economy deteriorates is collapsing.

Hizbullah itself has also taken major blows as Israeli operations have targeted the group's leadership, finances, and military infrastructure. The aura of invincibility that Hizbullah cultivated for decades has faded. For years the Iranian regime treated Lebanon as a forward operating base. Hizbullah was built to serve Iran's ambitions. The interests of the Lebanese people never mattered.

What was once one of the Middle East's most vibrant societies has been pushed to the brink. Future generations of Lebanese deserve a country whose army answers only to the state. They deserve institutions capable of restoring Lebanon's historic role as a center of commerce, education and culture. And they deserve a government that represents Lebanon's national interests, not the strategic ambitions of Tehran.

The U.S. and Israel will continue to weaken Hizbullah, but they cannot restore Lebanese sovereignty. Only the Lebanese state can do that. The question now is whether Lebanon's leaders have the courage to recognize this moment, put the Lebanese people first and act before the opportunity disappears.
Spain permanently withdraws its ambassador to Israel
Spain said Tuesday it had permanently withdrawn its ambassador to Israel as relations between Madrid and Jerusalem plunged to a new low over the left-wing Spanish government’s opposition to the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran’s regime.

The Spanish government published an announcement in its official gazette that the ambassador’s position had been terminated, Reuters reported. It quoted Spain’s Foreign ​Ministry as saying its embassy in Tel Aviv ​would be led by a charge d’affaires for the foreseeable ‌future.

Israel brought its ambassador home last year in protest of Spain’s decision to recognize a Palestinian state. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar criticized the Spanish policy at the time, calling it “antisemitic.”

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has long been a vocal supporter of the Palestinian cause, leading one of Europe’s most anti-Israel governments as he concomitantly faces domestic pressure from ongoing corruption allegations.

The Socialist leader has also angered U.S. President Donald Trump for refusing to let the United States use their military base for strikes against Iran.
The Iranian women’s soccer team shows what real oppression looks like — after feminists’ Olympic bellyaching
The post-Olympics news cycle was a dizzying display of handwringing over the supposed victimhood of empowered, badass American female athletes.

If we were to believe much of our media and feminist commentators, these women had been disrespected by President Trump, who cracked a joke, and by the men of Team USA hockey, who laughed.

It led to an online geyser of anger and indignation on the women’s behalf.

Off the phony controversy, we heard the refrain that women athletes are treated like gum on the bottom of a shoe. BuzzFeed even crowdsourced microaggressions in a piece entitled, “Calling All Women’s Athletes, Share A Time When You Felt Mistreated Or Disrespected In Your Sport.”

But the truth is, American female athletes are the most privileged and, in many cases, best compensated, in the world. It’s why our women dominate. Beyond the top-notch resources at their disposal, they are free to marry whom they want, wear what they want and speak out on their pet causes — even on a world stage.

Surely, the brave Lionesses from Iran would trade places in a second. Their heartbreaking human drama is a sharp contrast to the freedoms females enjoy here.
Iran women soccer players evacuate safe house in Australia after location revealed
Iranian women soccer players claiming asylum in Australia evacuated from their safe house on Wednesday after one team member changed her mind and revealed their location to the Iranian embassy, Canberra said.

Seven members of Iran’s visiting women’s football delegation had sought sanctuary in Australia after they were branded “traitors” at home for refusing to sing the national anthem.

But one member of the group had second thoughts after speaking to other players who had turned down asylum in favor of returning to Iran, Australian Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke said.

The woman exposed the location of the other asylum seekers when she contacted Iran’s embassy in Australia.

Iranian media, including the Shargh newspaper and Mehr news agency, identified the player who withdrew her asylum request as Mohaddeseh Zolfi. Official sources did not immediately identify her.

“As a result of that it meant the Iranian embassy now knew the location of where everybody was,” Burke said. “I immediately gave them instructions for people to be moved and that has been dealt with immediately.”

Australian officials had “made sure this was her decision,” Burke said.


Trump: War to end soon, ‘practically nothing left to target’; Israel: No ‘time limit’
Israel and the US appeared Wednesday to be increasingly at odds over the time frame for the war with Iran, with US President Donald Trump saying the conflict would end “soon” as there was “practically nothing left to target” and Israel’s defense minister meanwhile insisting there was no time limit to the US-Israeli operation against Iran.

The conflicting views came as missiles continued to rain down on Israel, with at least four salvos of Iranian missiles targeting the country throughout Wednesday morning and early afternoon, sending millions to seek shelter. No direct impacts or serious injuries were reported, aside from those lightly injured running for shelter or suffering from severe anxiety.

Government ministers reportedly said following a briefing that toppling Iran’s regime could take up to a year, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his call for Iranians to seize the opportunity to bring down their government. A New York Times report on Tuesday said Iran was adapting its military methods as the war drags on, targeting American vulnerabilities in the region and aiming to wait out the campaign.

Trump told the Axios news site that there was “practically nothing left to target” in Iran and that the war there will end “soon.”

“Little this and that… Any time I want it to end, it will end,” Trump said. Recent days have seen Trump convey mixed messages on whether or not he expects an imminent end to the war.

Trump also indicated the initial campaign was designed as a six-week fight. “The war is going great,” he said. “We are way ahead of the timetable. We have done more damage than we thought possible, even in the original six-week period.”

Trump also insisted that Iran was not only threatening Israel and the US, but “were after the rest of the Middle East.”

“They are paying for 47 years of death and destruction they caused. This is payback. They will not get off that easy,” he said.

In Israel, Defense Minister Israel Katz offered a different view of the future of the war.

“The operation will continue without any time limit, as long as required, until we accomplish all objectives and achieve victory in the campaign,” Katz said Wednesday during a situational assessment with IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir and members of the IDF General Staff, in a video released by Katz’s office.
IDF airstrike kills Iran’s top leaders, shifts war dynamics
Assassinating Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and nearly all of Iran’s top military and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officers on the first day of the war was an incredible turning point in which all of the IDF’s air and intelligence power combined to change the course of history, an IDF senior officer told The Jerusalem Post on Wednesday.

“Assassinating the supreme leader and all of the top echelon of the Iranian military and the IRGC in around half a minute was made possible by a giant and incredibly coordinated airstrike, which took months of planning,” the senior officer said.

In 40 seconds at around 8:15 a.m. on February 28, Khamenei, IRGC commander Mohammad Pakpour, military commander Abdolrahim Mousavi, defense minister Amir Nasirzadeh, National Defense Council secretary Ali Shamkhani, another top security aide to Khamenei for over a decade, and about 35 other top officials were killed.

Among the Israeli aircraft involved were F-16s, F-35s, and F-15s, although there were many others, including the US military’s involvement.

According to the IDF, the airpower and munitions used during the first day of attacks – both in those assassinations and in wider attacks on Iran’s air defenses and ballistic-missile apparatus – were unprecedented and far beyond any prior similar power used by Israel.


400 million barrels to be released from oil reserves as Iran effectively blocks Strait of Hormuz
The International Energy Agency agreed Wednesday to release the largest volume of emergency oil reserves in its history, in a bid to counter the effects on energy markets of the war in the Middle East.

The IEA said the release had been backed unanimously by 32 member countries, the sixth such move it has made since its creation in the 1970s. It is aimed at preventing a further rise in oil prices on fears that Iranian attacks will continue to block Middle East oil exports from reaching markets.

The Paris-based organization said it will make 400 million barrels of oil available from its members’ emergency reserves. It’s a larger stock than the 182.7 million barrels that were released in 2022 by the IEA’s 32 member countries in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

“Without sufficient routes to market and with no more available storage, Middle East oil producers have started to reduce production,” IEA executive director Fatih Birol said. “And we have seen further attacks and damage to energy and energy-related infrastructure. Refinery operations have also been disrupted, with major implications for jet fuel and diesel supplies in particular.”

IEA member countries currently hold over 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil stocks, with a further 600 million barrels of industry stocks held under government obligation.

In response to US and Israeli strikes, Iran has attacked commercial ships across the Persian Gulf, escalating a campaign of squeezing the oil-rich region as global energy concerns mount. On Wednesday alone, three commercial ships traversing the Gulf were hit by Iranian fire.

Iran has effectively stopped cargo traffic in the narrow Strait of Hormuz through which about a fifth of all oil is shipped from the Persian Gulf toward the Indian Ocean. It has also targeted oil fields and refineries in Gulf Arab nations, aiming at generating enough global economic pain to pressure the United States and Israel to end their strikes.

Sources said Wednesday that Iran has also laid about a dozen mines in the strait, a day after the US said it had destroyed 16 Iranian minelaying vessels in the area. One source said the locations of most of the mines are known, but declined to say how the US planned to deal with them.

Germany and Austria said earlier Wednesday they would release parts of their oil reserves following an IEA request for members to release the record 400 million barrels to help temper energy price spikes due to the Iran war. Japan also said it will release some of its reserves starting Monday.
3 ships hit in Gulf as Iran targets oil-exporting neighbors, vows oil price will hit $200 a barrel
Three commercial ships took fire in the Gulf on Wednesday, as Iran launched strikes against its oil-exporting neighbors, threatening shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

“Any vessel whose oil cargo or the vessel itself belongs to the United States, the Zionist regime or their hostile allies will be considered legitimate targets,” the Iranian military said, in a statement carried by state TV.

Iran will switch from “reciprocal hits” after attacks to continuous strikes on adversaries, and the US will not be able to control oil prices, said Ebrahim Zolfaqari, the spokesperson for Tehran’s Khatam al-Anbiya military command headquarters. “We won’t allow even one liter of oil to reach the US, Zionists and their partners.”

“Get ready for the oil barrel to be at $200 because the oil price depends on the regional security which you have destabilized,” he added.

The Thailand-flagged bulk carrier Mayuree Naree was targeted and damaged approximately 11 nautical miles north of Oman, two maritime security sources said.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed responsibility for the attack, the Guardian reported.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said later, referring to the incident, that the fire had been extinguished and that there was no environmental impact. Necessary crew remained on the vessel.

Earlier, the Japan-flagged container ship One Majesty sustained minor damage from an unknown projectile 25 nautical miles (46 km) northwest of Ras Al Khaimah in the United Arab Emirates, two maritime security sources said.
FBI said to warn California that Iran could launch drones from boat at West Coast
The Federal Bureau of Investigation has reportedly warned police departments in California that Iran could retaliate for US attacks by launching drones at the West Coast.

The news was first reported by ABC News on Wednesday, citing an alert it reviewed.

When asked on Wednesday if he was worried that Iran may increase it retaliation to include strikes on US soil, US President Donald Trump told reporters, “No, I’m not.”

The US and Israel carried out strikes on Iran nearly two weeks ago, launching the Gulf region into a war. Tehran has carried out retaliatory strikes in response to the US-Israeli strikes that killed top Iranian officials, including the country’s supreme leader.

“We recently acquired information that as of early February 2026, Iran allegedly aspired to conduct a surprise attack using unmanned aerial vehicles from an unidentified vessel off the coast of the United State Homeland, specifically against unspecified targets in California, in the event that the US conducted strikes against Iran,” the FBI wrote in an alert distributed at the end of February, according to ABC News.

“We have no additional information on the timing, method, target, or perpetrators of this alleged attack.”
Norway arrests 3 brothers with Iraqi roots over blast at US embassy
Norwegian police said Wednesday they had apprehended three brothers suspected of carrying out Sunday’s bombing at the US Embassy in Oslo, in an attack investigators have branded an act of terrorism.

The powerful early-morning blast from an improvised explosive device (IED) damaged the entrance to the embassy’s consular section but caused no injuries, Norwegian authorities have said.

The three suspects, all in their 20s, are Norwegian citizens with a family background from Iraq, police said.

“They are suspected of a terror bombing,” Police Attorney Christian Hatlo told reporters.

“We believe they detonated a powerful bomb at the US embassy with the intention of taking lives or causing significant damage,” Hatlo said, adding that none of the suspects had so far been interrogated.

One of the men was believed to have planted the bomb while the two others were believed to have taken part in the plot, Hatlo said.

The brothers, who were not named, had not previously been subject to police investigations, he added.

A lawyer representing one of the three men said he had only briefly met with his client and that it was too early to say how the suspect would plead. Lawyers representing the two others did not immediately respond to requests for comment when contacted by Reuters.

“Although it is early in the investigation, it is important that the police have achieved what they characterize as a breakthrough in the case,” Norway’s Minister of Justice and Public Security Astri Aas-Hansen said in a statement.
Israel and U.S. Shift Focus to Iran's Military Industry
Israel's security leadership convened Monday evening to assess progress in the war against Iran.

The picture presented was positive. "Even very good," said a senior security official. "We have achieved far more than we expected by the tenth day of the war."

The assessment was based on a detailed list of targets the IDF had planned to strike according to priorities and timelines prepared in advance.

Hundreds of Iran's long-range ballistic missile launchers were destroyed in the early days of the war, while others were disabled. Hundreds of missiles were also eliminated.

As a result, Iranian forces have been firing only isolated missiles at a time instead of barrages of dozens of missiles.

The next stage focuses on destroying Iran's military-industrial infrastructure which manufactures missiles, missile fuel, launch systems, navigation equipment, and attack drones.

Because Iran is geographically vast, Israeli officials acknowledge the task cannot be completed by Israel alone, and the U.S. is now intensifying its involvement in the effort.

Intelligence officials believe the regime may face growing unrest once the fighting subsides as Iran's economic difficulties, already severe before the conflict, have worsened considerably.

In Lebanon, Israeli strikes have targeted branches of Hizbulllah's Al-Qard Al-Hasan banking system. For the first time, Hizbullah fighters reportedly did not receive salaries this month.


Israel Air Force Pilot on Iran War: "Everyone Wants to Fly More"
A senior Israel Air Force pilot told Walla on Tuesday:
"Everyone is fighting for the seat in the cockpit. They want to fly more...they are eager because there's a sense of pride in being part of this historic effort."

"I truly believe that this war has the potential to affect the security reality for the citizens of Israel for many years ahead."

"We will win, because it's based on values. That's why our people have survived for over 3,000 years."

"It's also what separates us from our enemies. Look at the regime in Iran, look at what it has done to its people. We will continue to sanctify life, and they will continue to sanctify death."


IDF targets Hezbollah command centers, weapons sites in strikes on Beirut suburbs
Israel launched new waves of airstrikes in Lebanon overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday, striking Hezbollah targets while ramping up its troop presence in northern Israel, amid continuing rocket and drone attacks by the terror group.

One wave of airstrikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs overnight and Wednesday targeted Hezbollah command centers and weapon storage sites, the military said.

The IDF also said it had struck a Hezbollah command center in the coastal Lebanese city of Tyre on Tuesday.

Four people were wounded in an Israeli strike targeting an apartment in central Beirut overnight, the Lebanese health ministry said. Earlier reports had said four were killed.

Unusually, the latter strike took place in central Beirut, and not in the Hezbollah Dahiyeh stronghold in the city’s southern suburbs, where the IDF urged residents to evacuate.

Footage showed heavy damage to two floors of the apartment building in the Aicha Bakkar neighborhood, and smoke rising from the structure.

There was no immediate comment from the IDF.


Iran’s missile fire rate has collapsed by 92%: What comes next?
Ten days into Operation Epic Fury, the data tells a decisive and irreversible story. Iran’s ballistic missile launch rate has fallen approximately 92% from its day one peak, collapsing from 480 launches on February 28 to just 40 on March 9.

Drone launches have followed the identical curve, down 92% from 720 to 60. According to CENTCOM, over 3,000 targets have been struck nationwide across 30 of Iran’s 31 provinces. The IDF has conducted 2,600 sorties in 150 strike waves, dropping roughly 6,500 munitions. More than 60% of Iran’s missile launchers have been neutralized. Forty-three Iranian naval vessels have been destroyed or damaged. The trajectory is not declining. It is terminal.

This collapse mirrors and far exceeds the pattern observed during the June 2025 Twelve-Day War, when Iran’s missile rate fell from roughly 100 per day on day one to just five per day by day nine.

The critical difference is that in 2026, the absolute volumes started five times higher and the rate of collapse has been steeper. By day ten, Iran is firing fewer missiles per day than it managed even at the nadir of the June war, despite starting with an estimated arsenal of 2,500 ballistic missiles.
Missile Damage in Israel a Fraction of 2025 Levels after 11 Days of War with Iran
Compared to the 12-day war with Iran in June 2025, in the current fighting Iran has been firing fewer missiles and is concentrating its efforts on central Israel. While in June, Iran launched 1,600 missiles and drones, the number launched in this round of fighting so far is less than 600. While direct damage from missile hits in 2025 reached NIS 3 billion, the damage in the current campaign is estimated at several hundred million shekels so far.

Yigal Govrin, chairman of the Israel Association of Engineers, said, "In the previous campaign, we saw missiles with large warheads of hundreds of kilograms, and each missile that was not intercepted and landed had the potential to destroy an entire building."

"In this round, the Iranians are sending cluster missiles, that is, warheads that scatter, each with much less explosives, so the chance of a building being completely destroyed is very small. On the other hand, the large scatter is problematic. The potential for harm to people and property is greater because it reaches more places."
Hezbollah launches over 100 rockets at Israel’s North in joint attack with Iran, five injured
Sirens sounded across central Israel shortly after midnight on Thursday, following the launch of ballistic missiles from Iran towards Israeli territory.

According to Magen David Adom, no casualties have been reported.

MDA paramedics were dispatched to scenes where people were injured while moving to protected areas.

According to Israeli police, law enforcement and Border Guard officers were dispatched to the scene of a shrapnel fall that caused property damage in central Israel.

On Wednesday evening, five people were injured when a rocket hit a residence in the Upper Galilee in northern Israel, including four suffering from anxiety, United Hatzalah announced on Wednesday evening.

Firefighters cut off the electricity to the residence to prevent a fire, United Hatzalah added.

This came after sirens sounded across the country after Hezbollah and Iran launched a joint attack on Israel on Wednesday night.

Hezbollah terrorists launched over 100 rockets against northern Israel in a single barrage on Wednesday night, a security source confirmed.


Amid Mortozov, victim of Iranian cluster bomb strike, laid to rest in Petah Tivka
Amid Mortozov, who died of wounds he suffered in an Iranian cluster bomb strike in central Israel on Monday, was laid to rest in Petah Tikva on Wednesday.

Mortozov, 40, was fatally wounded while working at a construction site in Yehud when one of the cluster bomb munitions from an Iranian ballistic missile struck the area. Rustam Gulomov, 61, was killed and Mortozov was taken to the hospital where he died of his wounds a day later. The pair were not in a bomb shelter or other protective space, according to first responders.

Mortozov, a resident of Petah Tikva, is survived by his wife and their three children, ages 15, 12 and 4, according to Hebrew media outlets. He is said to have moved to Israel with his family in 2007 from Azerbaijan.

“Dad, I know that you’re looking down now from heaven,” his son, Jubran, said at his funeral, according to the Ynet news site. “I want to tell you that I miss you so much. You gave me everything, hope and belief. You always took care of me, you were always with me. I promise not to disappoint you.”

He promised that “from now on I’ll do what I have to, I’ll watch over Mom and my sister and brother.”

Also speaking at the funeral, Mortozov’s brother, Emil, said “he was a good person. We were close, as brothers. So many people came to pay their respects. He was a good father to his children — if only all parents could be like him,” according to the Israel Hayom daily.

Emil said the family still didn’t understand what had happened on Monday: “He was responsible and always went with his wife and kids to the shelter. We don’t know exactly what happened at the construction site and why they didn’t go to a shelter.”

Mortozov and Gulomov were the 11th and 12th victims of Iranian missile attacks on Israel since the start of the war last month. A strike on Tel Aviv on the first day of the war killed Mary Anne Velasquez de Vera, a caregiver from the Philippines.

And a missile impact in Beit Shemesh killed nine civilians, including multiple children: Ronit Elimelech, Sara Elimelech, Yaakov Biton, Avigail Biton, Sara Biton, Gavriel Baruch Ravach, Oren Katz, Bruria Cohen and Yosef Cohen.

Two IDF soldiers were also killed while fighting against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon: Sgt. First Class Maher Khatar and Staff Sgt. Or Demry.


Ask Haviv Anything: Episode 97: Can America and Israel finish the job? A conversation with John Spencer.
What is this war really about, and how does it end? We sit down with warfare scholar John Spencer to explore not just the military campaign itself, but the larger stakes of this war: Whether the US, Israel and their growing list of regional allies will be able and willing (two separate questions) to carry this war to a comprehensive conclusion, one that begins the process, even if it is slow and difficult, of bringing down a regime built on terror, proxies, and chaos, or whether the world will once again step back and leave the threat intact. It’s a conversation about strategy, uncertainty, and the price of waiting too long to confront danger.

Chapters
00:00 Introduction to the Conflict
02:57 Tactical and Strategic Overview
06:02 Understanding American and Israeli Goals
08:53 The Dual Nature of the War
09:52 Iran's Strategy and Response
13:09 The Role of Uncertainty in Warfare
15:54 Iran's Chaos Strategy
18:53 Assessing the Progress of the War
22:08 Diverging Objectives of the U.S. and Israel
27:56 The Integration of Military Forces
30:54 Assessing the War Objectives
35:21 The Straits of Hormuz Dilemma
40:28 The Moment of Truth for America
45:37 A Generational Change in Strategy
51:39 Israel's Role in Shaping American Strategy


Erin Molan: Caroline Glick Reveals What Trump Told Netanyahu Before the Iran War
Caroline Glick, International Affairs Advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, joins The Erin Molan Show to respond to claims that Donald Trump was pushed into the war with Iran.

Glick reveals that President Trump had long believed Iran must never be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons — and says Netanyahu didn’t need to convince him.

In this interview:
• Did Lindsey Graham try to push the U.S. into war?
• What Israel’s real objective in Iran is
• The future of the Iranian regime
• The role of Hezbollah in the conflict
• Whether the Ayatollah’s successor will survive

⏱ Chapters
00:00 Introduction
2:00 CNN on the NYC Isis-inspired bomb
01:02 Megyn Kelly lashes out at Bari Weiss... Again.
12:00 Is Lindsey Graham wrong about Israel?
13:40 Adam Schiff gets caught off guard on Bill Maher show
14:37 "Give the Terrorist a Valium" Award
19:00 Woopie Goldberg on 'The View' has cracked the code to all
22:35 Caroline Glick Advisor to PM of Israel Netanyahu
35:00 Fan Feedback (Wardrobe malfunction)


Caroline Glick: Iran-Israel: US Navy Deploys HELIOS Laser Against Iran | Israeli PM Advisor Backs Naval Ops | News18

State of Tel Aviv: Iran Attacks Arabs; America Pounds Military Targets
Perhaps the biggest surprise of this war with Iran is how viciously the country is attacking its Arab neighbors. The UAE has been hammered, actually targeted with more missiles than were directed at Israel. Senior FDD fellow and regular State of Tel Aviv and Beyond guest, Lt. Col. (Res.) Jonathan Conricus gets into this bizarre development that no one anticipated. Initially, some pundits were assuming there was a brilliant Iranian plan behind these attacks. But as we discuss in this episode, it is now clear that Iran lashing out at its neighbors is the result of chaos in the government and military. We also zoom out to look at the broad waves of attacks on Iran by America and Israel and what they have accomplished; what remains to be done. If the murderous regime in Iran falls the geopolitical fallout will be huge; the most extensive and far reaching since WWII. We also take a hard look at the conduct of unprincipled western leadership - like that of UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. Great video clips in this episode and some awesome retro photos from the 70s. Who remembers the OPEC oil embargo after the 1973 Arab Israeli war, also known as the Yom Kippur War? And, of course - we discuss the very real possibility of boots on the ground in Iran. Whose boots?


Melanie Phillips: Under siege in Jerusalem
Reflections by Melanie Phillips during an air raid alert in Jerusalem
WARNING: includes public air raid siren audio.


Ben Shapiro: They Are LYING To You About Iran
We debunk the 4 big lies told by opponents of President Trump's highly successful Iran action; Zohran Mamdani continues to provide aid and comfort to jihad supporters in New York City; and James Talarico wins the hearts of those who think Christianity is all just a matter of manners.


Ben Shapiro: This Is NOT A Forever War
Are you suffering from loss of sleep, ideological bloat, and brain cramps over the war in Iran? You may have Iran Propaganda Syndrome… and you may have caught it from your favorite podcaster or Democratic politician. We’ll break it all down.


Commentary Podcast: Wishcasting Failure
The indelible Chris Stirewalt joins us to discuss the overwhelming power disparity in the Iran war in contrast to its negative coverage in the media, and how the perverse incentives for partisan nastiness prevent progress on broadly popular policy measures. Plus, what Zohran Mamdani hosting Mahmoud Khalil says about the real intentions of those claiming to merely be "pro-Palestine," and the modern relevance of the 1933 novel The Oppermanns.






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PROTOCOLS: Exposing Modern Antisemitism (February 2022)

    
 

 



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Elder of Ziyon - حـكـيـم صـهـيـون



This blog may be a labor of love for me, but it takes a lot of effort, time and money. For 20 years and 40,000 articles I have been providing accurate, original news that would have remained unnoticed. I've written hundreds of scoops and sometimes my reporting ends up making a real difference. I appreciate any donations you can give to keep this blog going.

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