US policy for 50 years: Israel is not allowed to win any wars

From the National Security Agency archives:

During the Arab-Israeli War in October 1973, Secretary of State Henry Kissinger had frequent discussions with Soviet Ambassador Anatoly Dobrynin. During a conversation on 18 October 1973, after he agreed that the military situation was stable, even stalemated, Kissinger declared that “my nightmare is a victory for either side.” Dobrynin observed: “it is not only your nightmare.” 

No reason is given. The commentary guesses that "he may have worried that if either Egypt or Israel attained a decisive military advantage it would weaken U.S. influence over post-war peace talks. Dobrynin likely had the same concern for the Soviet position."

But perhaps it is just that the US foreign policy is to keep things as close to the status quo as possible, because any changes means an entirely new paradigm where the US could lose influence.

And we've certainly been seeing that with Israel (and, for that matter, Ukraine.)  The US has said that Israel can defend itself, but it has never said it supports Israel winning - achieving its military goals of the destruction of Hamas or the defeat of Hezbollah, let alone ending the Iranian regime. 

One can postulate that US policy towards its allies in regional conflicts around the world has been more to avoid their defeat rather than help them emerge victorious. There are several reasons for this:

A US perception that complete victory by one side could destabilize entire regions

The concern that a dominant regional power might be harder to influence than multiple competing states

The desire for states like Israel to have continued dependence on US support

Avoiding escalation that might draw in other major powers

It is hard to find counter-examples. US policy is not to end conflicts but to maintain detente and the status quo while keeping conflicts unresolved. (Of course, the US supported the Israel-Egyptian peace treaty but that wasn't a US initiative; it jumped on the bandwagon.)

The net effect is that the US is claiming to support Israel but is hamstringing Israel at the same time from actually winning wars.

Which is what we saw this weekend. The US made clear to Israel that it cannot do major damage to Iran's economy - yet that is what needs to be destroyed to end Iran's support for the worst terrorist groups in the world. Without decimating Iran's economy, Hamas and Hezbollah will be able to rebuild forever and we are in a Groundhog Day scenario. Indeed, this exchange of airstrikes between Israel and Iran this month sure resembles the US-managed tit for tat strikes between Iran and Israel in April. 

While Israel sent a message to Iran of its air superiority this weekend and ability to hit any target in the Islamic republic, it also showed that Iran can limit what Israel could do by threatening the US or threatening US interests. The US stopped Israel from doing what needs to be done, and Iran received that message loud and clear.

That is not the message Israel should be sending Iran. But it is the message the US has been sending every terror-supporting group in the world since the days of Kissinger.

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